Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 1
 

KDFW POOL 1 WAGERING INTERESTS:

#, Wagering Interest, ML odds

1. Adore the Gold, 20-1
2. Any Given Saturday, 20-1
3. Belgravia, 20-1
4. Buffalo Man, 30-1
5. Circular Quay, 15-1
6. Day Pass, 15-1
7. Dreaming of Anna (f), 15-1
8. Drums of Thunder, 30-1
9. E Z Warrior, 15-1
10. Exhale, 20-1
11. Forefathers, 30-1
12. Great Hunter, 30-1
13. Hard Spun, 20-1
14. Lawrence the Roman, 30-1
15. Liquidity, 20-1
16. Nobiz Like Shobiz, 8-1
17. Notional, 15-1
18. Out of Gwedda, 30-1
19. Ravel, 15-1
20. Scat Daddy, 30-1
21. Stormello, 20-1
22. Street Sense, 12-1
23. Zanjero, 30-1
24. All Other 3-year-olds, 7-2

Biggest waste of money going...

unless you are taking "the field" i have to believe there are no good values up there. a check through the history books will probably show higher race day odds of previous winners, with no risk of not starting and losing without even racing.

If I were foolish enough to bet this I'd go with Any Given Saturday at 20-1 and Great Hunter at 30-1.

In other years---the field looked more attractive.

IMO, this years Derby winner is absolutely among the 23 individual betting intrests.

Not true in general.

Barbaro paid $40.20 in Pool 1 (vs $14.20 at the track)
Funny Cide $188 (vs $27.60)
Monarchos $36.60 (vs $23)
FuPeg $27.80 (vs $6.60)

Smarty Jones, Charismatic and War Emblem were part of the Field. Only Giacomo paid less as an individual entry in Pool 1 than on race day.

To dismiss a parimutual future pool out of hand is a mistake, IMO.

--Dunbar

Remember the odds will change. You can find value after someone dumps $20k on the field to make it 9-5.





p.s. also look fot Nobiz like Showbiz to be bet hard as well.

It's parimutual, Sniper. I doubt you'll be seeing 30-1 on Great Hunter.

Tell me why you think betting the future pool is "foolish".

--Dunbar

I just don't think betting future pools are the best wagers to be making. Not only is there a strong chance that you will lose the wager because your horse doesn't even run in the Derby (which to me takes away the fun of wagering) but you are also giving up your money for more than 3 months when you could be making interest on it. I need instant gratification from my betting dollar. To each their own though. It may be parimutual but what is the takeout?

Here are two reasons I think it is NOT foolish to bet this future:

1. Takeout is 16%, same as Churchill.
2. Some incredibly unsavvy money is bet. To get an inkling of this, just add up the money that will be bet on Circular Quay and Notional BEFORE they race on Saturday. (which is well before the close of betting on Sunday.) People will also overestimate the chance that Dreaming of Anna's connections will even choose to run in the Derby.

--Dunbar

This pool is good for a 10-25$ birthday present bet.

Sure those were good, if you can spot them that far ahead and IF they start. I can name many more bad bets than good ones in this pool. here are a couple:

Declan's Moon 5-1, Sir Cherokee, Galloping Grocer, Rockport Harbor, Wimbledon and St. Averil =DIDNT START

Smarty Jones 8/5 PAID 10.20
Giacomo 25/1 PAID 102.60


Winning payout Pool 1 Pool 2 Pool 3 Derby payout
2006 (Barbaro) $40.20 $32.20 $20.80 $14.20
2005 (Giacomo) $52.00 $54.20 $103.60 $102.60
2004 (Smarty Jones) $5.60 $10.80 $23.60 $10.20
2003 (Funny Cide) $188.00 $120.80 $107.40 $27.60
2002 (War Emblem*) $7.60 $16.00 $24.00 $43.00
2001 (Monarchos) $36.60 $13.00 $15.80 $23.00
2000 (Fusaichi Pegasus) $27.80 $26.40 $8.00** $6.60
1999 (Charismatic*) $10.20 $30.20 $26.60 $64.60
* = field

lets add Achilles of Troy and Corintian to the DNS list.

To succeed in this venture, a number of positive events must come to pass: Your horse must be healthy enough and have enough career earnings to even get into the starting gate. The selection must win the toughest race to handicap in the land. And finally, he has to pay odds that are greater than those that your horse will actually go postward in the Derby.

Vegas future books used to be a lot better, but they've depressed their odds so significantly on ANY horse that's shown talent they're no longer worth it.

If Hard Spun is 25-1 or higher, I'll take a shot on him.

If "all others" is 3/1 or higher, its the best bet of all.

Most likely you are looking at all others being 9/5 or 2/1, but stranger things have happened and a lot of experts are very high on Nobiz like Shobiz.

The fact that Smarty Jones was in the field the first two pools was a joke that year.

How about adding First Samurai to the DNS list. That horse took alot of money in all 3 pools last year. This would back Dunbar's idea that you can take advantage of some foolish money in these future pools.

Are you serious about the "instant gratification"? The only "fun of wagering" for me is winning. Losing a race by my horse finishing second isn't any more fun for me than losing a race by my horse not starting (from a future bet).

Factoring in the chance that a horse doesn't start is just one more variable, and it's one that I can probably estimate better than the casual bettor. Therefore, it's one more way I have an edge over the casual bettor.

Your comment about "giving up your money for more than 3 months" is a good argument. If you have to make a choice between a good bet going off today and a future bet with the same edge, than the future bet has to take a back seat. However, if your future bet is competing with bank interest, then it doesn't have to be all that good. You will make less than 1.5% on your money with bank interest between now and the Derby. If your future bet has a 3% edge, it's better than bank interest.

I am reasonably certain that one of the highest EV bets I made last year was in Future Pool 1.

btw, I'd certainly agree that most of the entries are bad bets. Anytime someone is taking 16% out of the pool, most or all of the entries are going to be bad bets.

--Dunbar

one hundred percent agree with your assessment Sniper. Any Given Saturday and Great Hunter only two up there offering any value, although if I could book NBLS at eight it might be worth it. However one must belive that he will be much lower come Sunday night

It's a lot of fun....doesn't hurt to put a deuce on a horse or two
just gotta find your spots...the field is only appealling in the last pool
when the odds are best. Dreaming of Anna is a play against...doubt she'll face the boys. Don't care for Scat Daddy either off his Holy Bull and he may haved peaked last year. Interesting runners in my opinion are; Any Given Saturday, Day Pass and Ravel. Will probably play those three in the first pool.

Hard Spun at 20-1 isn't value?

I enjoy the race when I have a betting interest. Even if my horse doesn't win I still get excited when it comes off the turn and either is in front and I'm hoping it holds on or is off the pace and I'm hoping it will fire. So if I'm going to lose a bet I'd much prefer it be that way where I at least get that moment of excitement as opposed to picking up a DRF and seeing the horse I bet was injured and off the Derby trail.

Dumb question: Where do you go to bet future pools? In other words, does this bet go "strictly through Vegas"?

Thanks, I never really have thought much about the futures, but if I can bet them at the track, I might give it a shot.

From 2000 - 2006, the percentage of Pool 1 horses that actually make the starting gate is 38.5% (62 of a possible 161).

Keep in mind that the maximum that could reach the starting gate is 14/23, or 61%.

The horses that do not reach the starting gate are either injured or have shown they are not good enough, or, less likely, have failed to earn enough money to get in. These are all factors which can be capped.

Betting a parimutual future is very similar to betting a race. Aside from the time value of money that Sniper mentioned, the only real question is whether you can make use of the available info better than the other bettors. This is the same question you should be asking yourself with every bet.

--Dunbar

You are quoting odds on loosers. The object is to pick winners.If tou use the math there are always more bad odds loosers. Im not promoting future bets but your logic is a bad comparison.

Capital OTB allows you to bet at the parlors themselves

20/23, 87%.
Hell would freeze over before that happens, of course.

Oops, thanks for the correction, Phil. I forgot about the stampede.

--Dunbar

Futures bets is a sucker bet, or a gimmick bet, but I still enjoy making some every year. I know all the disadvantages of making them, but I still consider it "entertainment money" when making a few wagers in Vegas on possibe Derby contenders.
It's more of something fun to do, rather than something where you're only enjoyment is a positive ROI.
I made the following bets in NOV. and DEC. this year (and one in January).
I try to only take a horse that's over 50-1, knowing I could probably get 15-30-1 on a horse with an equal chance of winning on Derby day.
Notional 75-1
Sam P 125-1
Dilemma 75-1
Any Given Saturday 40-1
Officer Rocket 150-1
Mercantile 150-1
Day Pass 60-1
Great Hunter 40-1
EZ Warrior 60-1
Les Grand Trios 75-1
Came to Pass 100-1
At $10 each, that's $110 I'll probably never see again. But it's still fun to follow the horses the next couple months, and hopefully, have a few on Derby day that would cash big if I win.

Keep in mind that this year, because of internet ban, these pools should grow tremendously......not a huge fan of it but I might throw a couple wagers down on it

A little more info for you:

There will be 3 chances to bet on the Derby future pool at your local racetrack/OTB.

Pool 1 Feb 8 (opens at 12 pm EST) - Feb 11 (closes at 6 pm EST)
Pool 2 Mar 8 (opens at 12 pm EST) - Mar 11 (closes at 6 pm EST)
Pool 3 Apr 12 (opens at 12 pm EST) - Apr 15 (closes at 6 pm EST)

These are the only days to place a future wager at your local racetrack/OTB. The final odds for each pool are set after betting closes on the final day of each pool. If you place your bet on Saturday and the odds are 25-1 on your horse, you are not assured of getting 25-1 odds. The final odds are displayed Sunday after the pool closes. Those odds will not change from that point on.

Each pool contains 23 individual betting interests, and a 'field' which includes every horse not listed (#24). The 'field' is a very popular wager, especially in Pool 1, since you get about 300 some horses. The field (#24) is the likely favorite in Pool 1.

As you get closer to the Derby (i.e. Pool 3), most of the horses likely to run in the Derby are identified. Generally speaking, it is less likely that a 'field' entry from Pool 3 will run in the Derby than from Pool 1 or 2.

If your horse does not run in the Derby (a very likely scenario), you lose. You do not get a refund. There is no cancelling your bet once it is placed.

It is possible to cancel a ticket if an error is made, but Churchill Downs is getting very selective in what is cancelled and why - basically if the teller screws up and you notice it immediately you stand a chance of getting a cancellation. If you walk away from the window, the ticket is yours.

Here is a link to the 'official' site of the 2007 Derby:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/

There you can find 'real time' odds, the final odds once the pool closes, and info on some of the top horses.

What are people's thoughts on Street Sense breaking 'the Curse'?

That BC Juvenile race still looks like the best race any of these horses has run. We haven't seen him yet this year. Sounds like he will point for the Hutcheson and the Bluegrass.

I'm not exactly drooling over the 12-1 morning line.... but come Derby day that could look like a bargain.

He might be vulnerable in the 7 1/2 f Hutcheson. Not sure that distance is going to play to his running style. Perhaps there are better odds to be had in Pool 2?

free PP's are available at DRF for the 23 individual entries:

http://drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2007...y_23_pool1.pdf

--Dunbar

i am going with $20 on great hunter, and $20 on circular quay.

I can't seem to find the live odds anywhere on the Derby website.

Pool isn't open yet.

Agreed. Throwing $40 on Great Hunter as I think he might develop this spring and hoping to get a better price than I will in May. Wish CP West was a single entry instead of field. Thats my bomb