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Nobiz takes lead in Dispatch Derby Poll
With a cagey win in last Saturday's Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, Nobiz Like Shobiz moved back into the top spot and assumed a commanding lead in the points through week three of the Racing Dispatch Derby Poll. Four new faces entered the top twenty following the races this past weekend.
View Poll: http://www.racingdispatch.com/poll.php?year=2007&week=3 |
Looks pretty good.
The only horse in the top 7 that wouldn't be in my own personal top 7 is Circular Quay. |
Adore the Gold while impressive in Swale should not be that high. Believe Forefathers ran more impressive race as he was between horses for most of races and made nice run against the grain to get second.
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Yeah, he should be a top 3 |
based on what?
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I think Adore the Gold is the goods.. I put him up near the top on my ballot. Can go, can duel, can stalk.. Got the benefit of GP Saturday, but is far from one dimensional. Nice colt. |
I was surprised to see Adore The Gold rank so high as well. I think the numbers are fairly accurate... Scat Daddy drops, as he should, with another somewhat dissapointing effort. Ravel, who was awesome in the Sham, moved up too.
Perhaps the one aspect that really made me double-take was Scat Daddy's 10 first place votes... a lot jumped ship from Street Sense. I don't think Nobiz showed us he was any better than last year yet - but that's why we have 20 voters! |
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his 3-2-0 record in 5 starts...
2 Graded Stakes wins (including a G.1) 2 Graded Stakes placings (including a 2nd in the BC Juvy) ... how many horses have a better resume? I know some believe he may have distance limitations, I don't think that's been proven at all yet. Maybe he doesn't improve as a 3YO, I think he will and I think he's got to be considered at least a threat in the Derby(as of now), if not a top contender to win it. |
I dont like him that much. Hes a nice horse but Im not sold yet, he was just lugging in too badly in the stretch.
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http://www.attheracesandbeyond.com/stream/2507a.mp3 (Starts at bottom of hour, about the 30:00 minute mark if you want to skip to it..) |
Circular Quay reminds me a lot of his mother......I thought his race in the Juvenile was lousy and I just don't see him getting much better with age or added distance.
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Circular Quay has the RAN curse. He won't win the derby. :p
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Boy, we disagree on that for sure. He and Street Sense moved together pretty much in tandem, the major difference being CQ took the circle route on the turn and SS cut the corner along the rail. Why do you say his Juvy race was lousy? |
He got a dream pace setup in a collapsing race......he and Street Sense were fortunate enough to be racing 13th and 14th (last and 2nd to last) early on, behind that insanely fast pace.
I agree that Street Sense had the better trip of the two---however, with the kind of setup Circular Quay got...he should have been running on MUCH stronger than he was through the lane in my opinion. |
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You know, I agree with you on that. I thought CQ really flattened out in the stretch even though he still got by the rest of the field. Was it because of the wide trip, or did he not like the distance... or was it something else? I want to see him try it again, I'm hoping he shows a better sustained drive through the stretch next time. |
His mother was 3-for-5 with a 2nd place finish in sprint races...including a Grade 1 win at Saratoga, going 7 furlongs, and beating Surfside. She ran four times in route races, and never finished 1st or 2nd.
She was also trained by Pletcher. She also sold for $700K at a 2-year-old in training sale....after a very fast work. |
Didn't FuPeg end the RAN curse? Like Funny Cide ended the gelding curse? Now, we need to find someone to end the Juvie Jinx, and it ain't gonna be Street Sense.
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What on earth is the "RAN curse?"
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The RAN curse is when the horse has Raise A Native in the dam's sire line. FuPeg has Raise A Native in his sire's sire line. |
Don't know if I'm supposed to release my ballot, but on the left is my Top 20 this week followed by the total-final... (I actually forgot Day Pass in my 20 accidently..)
MY BALLOT/FINAL TALLY HARD SPUN 1 Nobiz Like Shobiz (10) NOBIZ 2 Street Sense (3) ADORE THE GOLD 3 Hard Spun (1) NOTIONAL 4 Ravel RAVEL 5 Circular Quay STORM IN MAY 6 Great Hunter (1) BELGRAVIA 7 Any Given Saturday (2) MINEFIELD 8 Notional LIQUIDITY 9 Stormello GREAT HUNTER 10 Liquidity C P West 11 Adore The Gold EXHALE 12 Exhale BIRDBIRDISTHEWORD13 Birdbirdistheword (1) STORMELLO 14 Day Pass CIRCULAR QUAY 15 Drums Of Thunder CURLIN 16 Belgravia TIAGO 17 Scat Daddy DRUMS OF THUNDER 18 Lawrence The Roman CAME TO PASS T-19 E Z Warrior ARCATA T-19 Spin Master |
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He broke his maiden last time....via DQ.
IMO, he could develop into a very solid horse....he's just not KY Derby material though. |
No Street Sense anywhere, Steve?
I do like though, that you got Storm in May up there -- he looked really nice at GP....I'd like to see him around again soon. |
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I'm guessing you're not putting much weight on what this class did as 2YO's. I'm not versed enough on many of these to put a top 20 list together, but I think I'd have many of the same... maybe not the same(similar) order though! Hard Spun has to prove himself (to me) in his next race before I put him very high. |
I was wondering who the (1) beside Hard Spun's name was. Well done, Steve.
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That's interesting because to me, Hard Spun has been the most impressive of the colts that have run at three, has 2yo foundation/substance and upside yet.. I think he's the best thing out there by a wide margin. 2 year old form is increasingly meaningless to me as a Derby indicator other than getting at least 2-3 starts in... |
Don't know this off the top of my nog, but has Danzig ever had a Derby winner? I know he had a Belmont winner at least.
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Danzig's Classic runners... Danzig CHIEF'S CROWN 1985 (3rd-2nd-3rd) Danzig WAR CHANT 2000 (9th-X-X) Danzig DANZIG CONNECTION 1986 (X-X-1st) Danzig PINE BLUFF 1992 (5th-1st-3rd) Danzig EXCHANGE RATE 2000 (12th-X-X) Danzig HONOR GRADES 1991 (X-8th-X) Danzig STEPHAN'S ODYSSEY 1985 (2nd-X-2nd) RECORD: 12/2-3-3 |
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You certainly make a good argument for him, and I agree there's plenty of upside for this colt. I guess it's like the criticism some had for Smarty a few years ago.. I want to see him do the same to tougher competition that he's done already. ( funny thing is, I really liked Smarty by this point of the season, so you'd think I'd be the same for this guy) One more good race for me, then I'll be sold. |
Obviously, Hard Spun also has the RAN curse if you believe that sort of mombo-jombo.
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Day Pass is an interesting case- I have reservations he'll handle two turns with ease. Talent wise he's right there if he does, his Nashua, off only a 5.5F maiden race, was awfully impressive. |
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'Tis the truth.
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Storm In May would really shock me.
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Steve
Nice to see your vote for CP West. He is my sleeper but seems to be behind. thought I read somewhere that Zito not at all sure if he will go on trail. Thought his Futurity was impressive for only second career start and injured himself in BC Juvenile in which I really liked him. Storm in May might be wise guy horse as he overcame bias to win at GP, even though fractions in race were suicidal. STill two horses on lead through those fractions ran second and third. But doubt he will be part of picture come first Saturday in May |
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And while Idiot Proof and Texas Voyager (by far the two best horses in the race) did survive the pace to finish 2nd and 3rd.....the 4th and 5th place finishers raced 14th and 13th (last and 2nd to last) after the 1st pace call Idiot Proof is obviously no Derby horse...but his debut was very exciting visually, and he ran his eyes that day. He could be a very exciting sprinter. |
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