Risen Star
 

WOW! What a line-up. This race should separate several of the contenders from the pretenders. Should be the best race of the year so far.:D

Spanky in a 14 horse field of stake horses is just a bit scary.

Should be fun! I added morning line odds per bloodhorse.com :



Fair Grounds - February 10th, 2007 - Race 9
Risen Star S. - Grade: 3
Estimated Local Post Time: 4:28 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old
Purse: $300,000
Distance:One And One Sixteenth Miles
Surface: Dirt
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Slew's Tizzy (KY) 3 Colt 116 James Graham 30-1
2 Makeithapencaptain (FL) 3 Colt 116 Ramsey Zimmerman 30-1
3 Beta Capo (KY) 3 Colt 120 Donnie J. Meche 30-1
4 Izzie's Halo (FL) 3 Colt 116 Jesse M. Campbell 8-1
5 Circular Quay (KY) 3 Colt 122 John R. Velazquez 9/5
6 Westwon (KY) 3 Colt 116 Corey J. Lanerie 15-1
7 Scat Thief (KY) 3 Colt 116 Joseph Talamo 30-1
8 Imawildandcrazyguy (FL) 3 Gelding 116 Fernando Jara 15-1
9 Spankey Come Home (KY) 3 Colt 116 Gerry Olguin 30-1
10 Zanjero (KY) 3 Colt 120 Jesus Lopez Castanon 5-1
11 Weather Warning (KY) 3 Colt 120 Lonnie Meche 10-1
12 Notional (CA) 3 Colt 122 Robby Albarado 9/2
13 Teuflesberg (KY) 3 Colt 122 Emma-Jayne Wilson 15-1
14 Buffalo Man (ON) 3 Colt 122 Jose Lezcano 10-1

i dont see 1 serious derby horse in this race...
and i took a good look, im not just making a post up, but i feel that there is not a serious derby contender, even with a big performance in this spot i still dont think anyone can come out of this race and have much of a impact.

Who the heck cares about the Derby right now, the important thing is finding the winner of this race at a nice price. Somebody has to win this. Wont pay anymore if he is a Derby contender or not.

It will in the Derby Trail contest.

whatever you say gander... that was just my opinion from looking at the race

I'd still consider Circular Quay a derby contender.

I apologize, didnt mean to insult anybody's way of thinking. Good luck in any and all Derby contests.

As for this race, what a betting event this should be.

Too bad I am awful when it comes to Derby prep races.

With the $300,000 purse the winner will be 2/3rds of the way in earnings toward making the Derby. Plus Circular Quay already has enough. I bet at least two to three from this field wind up in the Derby starting gate. Zanjero is the one I'm interested in.

I love Teuflesberg, but don't see a likely win from him here.

Yaaa

Buffalo Man is running, didn't run last weekend, wonder why?

A cough:

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do...6&subs=0&arc=1

Same here Sniper, was really surprised that the entries with post positions
were already up for Saturday. Looking like the first good betting opportunity of the triple crown preps.

The connections of Teuflesburg are ridiculous for even running that poor horse in this spot.

Hes in BTW. 2 races behind, but hes in. I look for a middle pack finish, some education, and hopefully foundation.

Yeah, I saw. It's probably a decent race to take a shot and see where you stand. Like you said, he probably isn't good enough to be a serious factor but you gotta start somewhere.

Makes a lot more sense than running Teuflesburg.

zanjero..looks good at least in this race.......

the same could be said about almost all of the spots they ran him in last year...why should this year be any different?

Agreed.

I'm not gonna go crazy on this race, probably put $5-10 acrossed on Notional.

I agree, this really irritates me because they struck gold with this horse by only paying $7K and are hell-bent on ruining him. :mad: There are so many other ways to make money with a tough horse than stretching him out for your Derby dreams.

My guess is that Circular Quay is going here instead of FLA or SoCal is the length of the FG stretch. Horse who closes the way CQ does needs every bit of stretch he can get.

As an aside, has anybody noticed in the simulcasts from South America how insanely long the final straights are there? Could explain why some big winners down there don't do as well up here - they are grinders who need that long stretch to get up speed and pass the field.

CQ is the 9/5 morning line favorite... I added all the morning lines to the earlier post that lists the entire field.

Notional is a good bet against with the outside post. Circular Quay is an okay bet against with it being his first start of the year.

There is no shortage of speed which makes me like the Calder shipper a bit. Imawildandcrazyguy came from six lengths off a 23 4/5 quarter, and 48 3/5 half to win by 10. Third horse came back to win. There are things to like there, and you cannot argue with finding a closer at a decent price in a race of speed.

Vox,

Perhaps the best recco for Wildandcrazyguy is the performances of Bill Kaplan's other pair the last two weeks.. Kaplan's situation is the wildest and craziest on the Derby Trail. A relative unknown with a 12 horse barn and three with potential for Louisville. Based on Storm in May's and Drums of Thunder's efforts at GP, I'd expect another strong effort from this one at N'orleans Saturday. Kaplan thinks just as highly of him as the other two...

I can't imagine any other horse in the field is a better closer than CQ. But his likely short price and first run off the layoff, make him less than appealing as a win bet. I'd think you'll get a nice price on Imawildandcrazyguy.

Haven't looked at the PPs, but if there is plenty of speed, then I sit it custom-fit for CQ.
The negatives are that he already has the earnings for the derby so he may not be asked for his best, it's a 14 horse field and traffic could be an issue, and it is his first start of the year.

Still, he's been working steady at Hollywood for awhile now, so I expect a solid effort from him.

Yeah, the first start off a layoff plus knowing they don't have to get wins or earnings to get into the derby could play a role.. But, CQ did win in his debut, so I don't see why he can't do it again!