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-   -   Can you really make money in this game ? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9538)

POINTGIVEN1985 02-05-2007 12:50 PM

Can you really make money in this game ?
 
I really dont think that you can. Its such a hard game to win money on, i go for a day at stimucast and handicap 3-4 tracks all day catch a couple big hits and at the end of the day still finish down. Its so hard to win over the long run betting horses...i feel the only way i win is if i spot play 1 maybe to races a day, bet them and thats it. I find it so hard to go to otb with my buddies and bet for a whole day and finish up.

hockey2315 02-05-2007 12:58 PM

Read "Six Secrets of Successful Bettors" from DRF Press. It totally changed my outlook on the game. . .

Coach Pants 02-05-2007 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315
Read "Six Secrets of Successful Bettors" from DRF Press. It totally changed my outlook on the game. . .

Frank? Will you autograph a copy if I send it?

POINTGIVEN1985 02-05-2007 01:03 PM

thanks i just orderd the book will be here in 3 days... i will read it as soon as it arrives

hockey2315 02-05-2007 01:06 PM

Funny, Pillow. . .

Cajungator26 02-05-2007 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants
Frank? Will you autograph a copy if I send it?

LMAO... oh lord.

SCUDSBROTHER 02-05-2007 01:11 PM

I think you can,but you have to ONLY bet when certain conditions exist.Many of us(including myself) rely on horses with mediocre( or bad) trainers.If I look back at who anchored my last 3 nice multi-race wins(Biancone,Canani,and Zucker,) and compare them to (the trainers of) my last 3 close calls,then I can see where some editing could have been done.It is a matter of entertainment value versus making money.I can tell you that the average trainers (even when they have the best horse)often run 2nd-4th.

Gander 02-05-2007 01:19 PM

Something to remember is the amount of money you lose is more important than the amount of money you win. If you play this game there will be days where you finish down and you need to 1) Accept this for certainty that you will have crummy days and 2) Avoid chasing money that you lose. I do it all the time, I'll be down a few hundred and play a race I normally wouldnt play just to try and get even for the day. Thats how you get yourself in trouble, take it from somebody with more experience on the subject than most on here.

If you cant take the losses and going home feeling like a worthless loser, than stop playing this game and get another vice.

zippyneedsawin 02-05-2007 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
I really dont think that you can. Its such a hard game to win money on, i go for a day at stimucast and handicap 3-4 tracks all day catch a couple big hits and at the end of the day still finish down. Its so hard to win over the long run betting horses...i feel the only way i win is if i spot play 1 maybe to races a day, bet them and thats it. I find it so hard to go to otb with my buddies and bet for a whole day and finish up.


I'm no expert, but I try my best to limit my plays.. For me, betting on dozens of races at several different tracks is usually a recipe for disaster. So, I focus on the few races I really want to bet. If I really can't help it and want to play other races, I'll use a 'smaller' fund set aside for that, otherwise the bulk of my 'investments' will be for the main race(s) I want to bet.

cakes44 02-05-2007 02:24 PM

Here's an idea. Go to the track with no $ except for your bank card. Get as drunk as you possibly can so the next day you can't remember how many times you actually hit the ATM. No matter how much you bring home, it seems reasonable the next morning.

However, this only works if you purposely don't pay attention to bank statements and/or your wife doesn't know what's going on either.

WillSmith 02-05-2007 02:38 PM

<snip> i go for a day at stimucast and handicap 3-4 tracks all day<snip>

bet one track ( two at most ), follow trainers, jockeys, patterns, and play the horizontal wagers.

2MinsToPost 02-05-2007 03:32 PM

in my humble opinion the key is to focus your attention and betting dollar on no more then 2 meets. with time, patience and some smart money management skills you should find yourself having a good time. betting strategy is CRUCIAL. exotic bets, etc etc. For me, I roll with betting to win and place, pick 3's and the occasional pick 4.

AeWingnut 02-05-2007 05:02 PM

I play for the action. I have accepted that. I win this week next week I lose
a total wash

then I lose , lose, lose... time to take a break

I only get down on myself when I save money and it ends up costing me thousands.

Seems like the only time I make money is when I go through all the races. Bet the 10 or 20 I like and go home.

:D

2Hot4TV 02-05-2007 05:49 PM

Yes you can end up with a small fortune in this game, but you have to start with a very large fortune and know when to quit.:D

Downthestretch55 02-05-2007 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
Something to remember is the amount of money you lose is more important than the amount of money you win. If you play this game there will be days where you finish down and you need to 1) Accept this for certainty that you will have crummy days and 2) Avoid chasing money that you lose. I do it all the time, I'll be down a few hundred and play a race I normally wouldnt play just to try and get even for the day. Thats how you get yourself in trouble, take it from somebody with more experience on the subject than most on here.

If you cant take the losses and going home feeling like a worthless loser, than stop playing this game and get another vice.

Well said, Tim. That's the best advice that's come along.
Just a little story...
At Finger Lakes there were two retired gentlemen. I saw them just sit and watch. They paid attention.
I only saw them go to the window about three times. I don't know how much they bet, but I do know they cashed each time.
The key word is "patience".
Never bet "stupid".
Watch and wait.
It's very hard for me to do also, but if one wants to make money rather than
"entertainment", their approach might be the best way.
Just my two pennies.
DTS

AeWingnut 02-05-2007 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV
Yes you can end up with a small fortune in this game, but you have to start with a very large fortune and know when to quit.:D


I enjoyed that a lot

my sides hurt

SteelKrtan 02-05-2007 06:46 PM

Here's my trick :D One bet a week study all form & go to trials ,decide which is your best bet for the week,dont let how much it is the paying influence you, place $100 on the nose if it wins split half into a tin spend other half taking family out to dinner. If loses go back to work & repeat each week for 3 months, Open tin at end & take yourself & family on a holiday it's a win win situation :D
I did it & had $8,000 in the tin so was great for a overseas holiday, placed $100 on a horse as i was going to the airport it came in paying $16 & had $1,600 when i came back which was good cause i was broke ;)

timmgirvan 02-05-2007 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV
Yes you can end up with a small fortune in this game, but you have to start with a very large fortune and know when to quit.:D

This is the best line of the thread,imo....the races are like the stockmarket..up and down.. some days you hit it good and others you're baffled....it takes alot of hard work to win consistently...as the top cappers here say...so have fun while you're learning and then proceed with caution:D

Rudeboyelvis 02-05-2007 07:19 PM

I'd second the notion that you limit your focus to one track. get familiar with the jocks, trainers, horses. I find it give me an etherial feel especially when playing trainer/ J/T angles.

I also find that going to the paddock and looking at the horses will help you find a diamond in the rough or an underlay that may not seem to have his heart in it. Not every race by anymeans, but a couple-three times a day on average you can pick up some hints by watching the body language of the trainers giving instructions, and most importantly the horses themselves.

The last time I was at TBD I saw a horse that looked like he was ready to beat the world. 27-1 on the tote board seemed to disagree. a 10.00 win ticket proved the horse, not the board, was right..
Conversely on the same card, I witnessed a 6-5 favorite with a peculiar foot flight. Could have been the shoes, don't know, but I knew there was something amiss. Left him out of my exacta, with what turned out to be good reason - he came in third...

Danzig 02-05-2007 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis
I'd second the notion that you limit your focus to one track. get familiar with the jocks, trainers, horses. I find it give me an etherial feel especially when playing trainer/ J/T angles.

I also find that going to the paddock and looking at the horses will help you find a diamond in the rough or an underlay that may not seem to have his heart in it. Not every race by anymeans, but a couple-three times a day on average you can pick up some hints by watching the body language of the trainers giving instructions, and most importantly the horses themselves.

The last time I was at TBD I saw a horse that looked like he was ready to beat the world. 27-1 on the tote board seemed to disagree. a 10.00 win ticket proved the horse, not the board, was right..
Conversely on the same card, I witnessed a 6-5 favorite with a peculiar foot flight. Could have been the shoes, don't know, but I knew there was something amiss. Left him out of my exacta, with what turned out to be good reason - he came in third...

i ate up md racing for years-had that down to a tee--bad thing was, i wasn't able to bet. lol

just wish i had the time now that i had then.

jvendetti22 02-05-2007 11:26 PM

I think you can come out ahead. You have to beat the take-out rate (~20%), and be 'better' than about 60% the handicappers out there.

Playing several tracks and betting every race at those tracks is tough. Being selective is important. Make your plays when you feel confident.

Also, don't drink. Consistently beating 60% of the handicappers sounds like a minor challenge, but many of those people are showing up at the track/OTB early in the afternoon, and they start drinking early. This is a near daily event for many of these people, and they generally are addicted to gambling and playing impaired. They are not playing with 'smart' money.

Of course, it is tough to be selective if you only go out to play the horses occasionally. I'm at the track 5-6 days a week, and I play maybe 4-8 races a week - usually at a track I'm familiar with the jockeys, trainers, and track biases.

I work at a track though, so all the races sort of blend together and being selective is fairly easy in that scenario.

ateamstupid 02-05-2007 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315
Read "Six Secrets of Successful Bettors" from DRF Press. It totally changed my outlook on the game. . .

Six secrets..

1. Know the trainers
2. Know the owners
3. Know the jockeys
4. Know the grooms
5. Know the exercise riders
6. Pick your spots

That's it. I'd love to say otherwise, but unless you've got inside information at the track, you're fighting an unbelievably steep uphill battle.

I'm not saying that you still can't win by just handicapping (or playing numbers like Hooves), but it's ridiculous how many factors are unknowable by reading the race on paper.

blackthroatedwind 02-05-2007 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Groundhog
I think you can come out ahead. You have to beat the take-out rate (~20%), and be 'better' than about 60% the handicappers out there.

Playing several tracks and betting every race at those tracks is tough. Being selective is important. Make your plays when you feel confident.

Also, don't drink. Consistently beating 60% of the handicappers sounds like a minor challenge, but many of those people are showing up at the track/OTB early in the afternoon, and they start drinking early. This is a near daily event for many of these people, and they generally are addicted to gambling and playing impaired. They are not playing with 'smart' money.

Of course, it is tough to be selective if you only go out to play the horses occasionally. I'm at the track 5-6 days a week, and I play maybe 4-8 races a week - usually at a track I'm familiar with the jockeys, trainers, and track biases.

I work at a track though, so all the races sort of blend together and being selective is fairly easy in that scenario.


I have to take exception to this.

The majority of the money in the pools at racetracks is bet by educated players, most of whom are not even at a racetrack, and almost none of these players are drinking.

That's all for now.

jvendetti22 02-06-2007 12:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I have to take exception to this.

The majority of the money in the pools at racetracks is bet by educated players, most of whom are not even at a racetrack, and almost none of these players are drinking.

That's all for now.

...and your evidence for that would be????

blackthroatedwind 02-06-2007 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Groundhog
...and your evidence for that would be????

Considering the charges in your initial post I would say you are probably the one who should be asked for " evidence ".

I have played seriously for a long time and I'm fairly well acquainted with many other serious players. None of them drink while playing.

Coach Pants 02-06-2007 12:08 AM


blackthroatedwind 02-06-2007 12:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants


Thank you.....I really am an idiot!:D

jvendetti22 02-06-2007 12:18 AM

Well I've worked at a number of tracks over the past 10 years, and was a horseplayer long before that. I've worked at tracks and OTB's in Virginia, Illinois, Minnesota, West Virginia, Idaho, California and Texas.

The common theme all these tracks and OTB's have are people showing up before noon, starting to drink, and drinking most of the day. They also play darn near every race.

The larger, 'professional' type players do not bet every pool, every race, every track so their money is not everywhere. The sober, astute, and restrained horseplayer is a rarity. You are lucky to know even a few of them.

On the other hand, you can find the drunken addicted gambler at nearly every track and OTB in good sized numbers.

jvendetti22 02-06-2007 12:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Dude, I'm far from a troll. I merely stated my opinion and tried to have a civil discussion.

Try to be just a little less judgemental, Jesus.

blackthroatedwind 02-06-2007 12:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Groundhog
Dude, I'm far from a troll. I merely stated my opinion and tried to have a civil discussion.

Try to be just a little less judgemental, Jesus.


I would say it is your posts in this thread that are pretty judgemental.

You just started posting here. Look around, it's a pretty good place, and there are a lot of posters here who are very knowledgable about racing. I'm sure a number of them will have some things to say about your allegations by morning.

Many of them, in fact, aren't as out of it as I am.

Coach Pants 02-06-2007 12:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Groundhog
Dude, I'm far from a troll. I merely stated my opinion and tried to have a civil discussion.

Try to be just a little less judgemental, Jesus.

Cut me some slack...i'm drunk and betting Australian racing.

The Indomitable DrugS 02-06-2007 12:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Six secrets..

1. Know the trainers
2. Know the owners
3. Know the jockeys
4. Know the grooms
5. Know the exercise riders
6. Pick your spots

IMO, those might be the six secrets to bankruptcy....as I would love to be able to book the action of those in the first five categories.

The average trainers are about as skilled in the art of handicapping, as the average horseplayers are at training the horses.

There's always exceptions, and I'm sure there are a few trainers who have fully developed handicapping skills--- (Cannon Shell made a very good handicapping read in the Invasor thread) ---however, even of the precious few, they are too focused on their own horses, and their own work, to have the time and energy to do all the needed handicapping work it takes to have the best opinion possible on the competiton they are up against.

I worked for a vetern Kentucky trainer when I was younger....great guy, took good care of his horses, but he was completely lost with all things handicapping. When he told me that to start with, I just thought he was being modest...turns out he wasn't!

The owners, jockies, grooms, and excersize riders are all going to be uninformed about the competition as well---and these folks also, almost always, have severe handicapping deficiencies.

The only time it really helps to have access to any of these people, is when you have a horse who is an unknown quantity in some way, such as a first-time starter, or an import making his United States debut. Also, they can sometimes provide good information on a runner returning from a layoff.

There is no big secret to beating this game IMO. You just need to keep developing your handicapping skills everyday----and do all the tedious work to gain an andvantage over the other bettors. It sometimes means staying up to 3AM, watching old races, and making notes.

jvendetti22 02-06-2007 12:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I would say it is your posts in this thread that are pretty judgemental.

You just started posting here. Look around, it's a pretty good place, and there are a lot of posters here who are very knowledgable about racing. I'm sure a number of them will have some things to say about your allegations by morning.

Many of them, in fact, aren't as out of it as I am.

Well, then I pre-empatively apologize for my blanket statement on the intoxication level and addicted nature of many horseplayers that I have encountered.

Maybe they are more successful horseplayers than I imagine, but personally if I have two beers my handicapping is crap.

There are a lot of undisciplined players out there would be a more accurate, less inflammatory point. A disciplined player can gain an advantage.

blackthroatedwind 02-06-2007 12:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Groundhog

There are a lot of undisciplined players out there would be a more accurate, less inflammatory point. A disciplined player can gain an advantage.

There certainly are....but unfortunately not enough of them are contributing enough handle to make the game significantly easier. I wish they were.

jvendetti22 02-06-2007 12:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants
Cut me some slack...i'm drunk and betting Australian racing.

Well good luck with that endeavor.

I prefer turf racing and rely on breeding quite a bit, so as a North American handicapper I'm nothing but confused trying to play Australia (although I do look for Sinspiel's and Spining World's and may play those horses. Danehill is about the only sire I see regularly that I recognize as a sire I like).

Coach Pants 02-06-2007 12:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Groundhog
Well good luck with that endeavor.

I prefer turf racing and rely on breeding quite a bit, so as a North American handicapper I'm nothing but confused trying to play Australia (although I do look for Sinspiel's and Spining World's and may play those horses. Danehill is about the only sire I see regularly that I recognize as a sire I like).

Well I had some good racing luck tonight. Had a 29-1 shot win and hit the exacta for $4. Paid over 400. You can get some crazy prices on good horses down under. I guess it's because the bettors, for the most part, are descendants of pirates and hookers.

jvendetti22 02-06-2007 12:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants
Well I had some good racing luck tonight. Had a 29-1 shot win and hit the exacta for $4. Paid over 400. You can get some crazy prices on good horses down under. I guess it's because the bettors, for the most part, are descendants of pirates and hookers.

:)

I don't think you are even playing against the Aussie's. The North American pools go thru Woodbine.

You probably knew that, but sarcasm is tough to determine on a message board.

Nice job on the hit though.

ateamstupid 02-06-2007 01:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
The only time it really helps to have access to any of these people, is when you have a horse who is an unknown quantity in some way, such as a first-time starter, or an import making his United States debut. Also, they can sometimes provide good information on a runner returning from a layoff.

It also helps a lot when there is a class rise or a cut in claiming price. My point is that what you can't definitively read on paper. Nor fitness. And in the average race at the average track, those are often the two biggest factors in determining whether your horse will run well or not.

If you're going to say that KNOWING intention and fitness isn't key, well, I'm just going to have to disagree with you there..

Holland Hacker 02-06-2007 06:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Groundhog
Well, then I pre-empatively apologize for my blanket statement on the intoxication level and addicted nature of many horseplayers that I have encountered.

Maybe they are more successful horseplayers than I imagine, but personally if I have two beers my handicapping is crap.

There are a lot of undisciplined players out there would be a more accurate, less inflammatory point. A disciplined player can gain an advantage.

I accept your apology. I have been playing the races for a long time (> 25 years which is more than 1/2 of my life). I will have a beer or two on occassion when I'm at the track but I prefer not to Imbibe as it will only cloud my judgement, which isn't all that good to begin with.

I agree with BTW, in that most of the money in the pools is not "under the influence." While I agree that there is some money wagered by intoxicated people I think it is far from the majority of the money in the pools. It is rare for me to see "drunks" staggering around placing wagers. Two exceptions I can think of are the Derby and the Preakness, where there is more of a "Spring Break" atmoshpere but even that is limited mostly to the infields.

To respond to the original post about whether or not you can actauly make money in this "game." I think if you are very patient and pick your spots you can. I have not been able to find the self discipline to only play a few races when I go to the track. I will limit my wagers to less than $10 when I don't have a strong feeling, but even that eats into the profitable plays when I am correct. I view it more as a form of entertainment and a viceand if at the end of the day or year I'm ahead better yet!

Bigsmc 02-06-2007 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I have to take exception to this.

The majority of the money in the pools at racetracks is bet by educated players, most of whom are not even at a racetrack, and almost none of these players are drinking.

That's all for now.

Agree 100%.

The "addicted" gamblers playing "impaired" as Groundhog stated, do not make a dent in the pool.


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