Revisiting SNS - Saturday
 

I just saw his TG for Saturday. I absolutely love him. Right now I have him 5 lengths better then EVERYONE but Papi Chullo. Papi Chullo is fast enough and will get the trip, but Mike Smith is on him, nuff said. The only horse that worries me is Summer Book.....He is a horse that will get a good trip and has the number power to compete.

Honestly, I think this is a great situation to actually play SNS and play him hard, and here is why. The media is going nuts about his post and yadda yadda, people are going to spread in this race thus making the pick three payouts more 'uniform'. Not saying he isn't going to be the low pick three, but if he is 3 slots in, he gets SINGLED ON EVERY TICKET. Given his post position, people are going to try and beat him and I just don't see it. I actually think he has a good chance to be 2w by the turn.

Back to SNS, EVERY SINGLE time in his life, he has improved at least TWO TG points 2nd start off a layoff. He ran huge last time, actually pairing his top exactly, and given his history, he should EXPLODE in this race. Note the nice work back after that race, it wasn't insanely fast, it was get him out there with a 300lb gorilla on his back so he wouldn't do too much. Just enough to take the edge off him (obviously not because SNS whacked Trom in the chest and left a mark)

My only concern is that Ramon doesn't try something cute. Hopefully the 60k that he will get will make him focus, but NBC will be there, and hopefully he isn't trying out for J-Lo dance reality show on MTV. I really wish Kent D was on him, but I don't have Trombetta ear yet, at least it isn't SHANE LAVIOLETTE.

Scav's Recommendation: Purposely get crappy drunk on Friday night so you don't blow your money betting Los Alamitos and get up the next morning and single the hell out of this horse in every possible way and take the 8/5 you are going to get and RUN.

I've just looked at the entries and he's going to be tough regardless of the post. BUT....if he's not on the lead at the start of the turn then start praying that Ramon doesn't go into ****** mode.

If 60k in like 2 minutes doesn't motivate a man to not be stupid, then I don't know what would

Rehoboth is gonna be dangerous in this one. Has been running great-level of comp not been great(this field alot better) However gets a good post and should be well rested. Also gets 2lbs like SNS

i'm going to study the TGs on the plane rides tomorrow, but without really digging into the race -- i did notice that papi chullo and summer book have the raw number capabilities to upset this one

media or not, the post is certainly a concern...not enough to leave him off tickets, but certainly enough to not go all in for the win on my end.

do i think he wins? probably. do i want to eat 8-5 from the 12 hole on him? not as much.

I think Silver Wagon is very dangerous here. His two turn races, all as a 3YO at the old Gulfstream, are reasonably good, and he is clearly fast enough. He should get a good trip, and the pace will be contentious. I don't discount Sweetnorthernsaint, and Dry Martini is OK, but little else scares me here.

Scav.....Papa Chullo? Come on. And Summer Book? He's ridiculous. But he's also 100-1 so good luck.

Haven't seen the thorograph's yet, but if my memory serves me, I believe Papi Chullo's best races are at a mile, the extra 1/8th may hurt him.

Fast enough at 6f, but can he run that number going 3 extra panels?

Please forgive me for giving Summer Book the possiblity of winning, I lost my brain for a few, just found it and we are ready to go......

i have it sns /silver waggon...prado would not take unless he didnt think he could contend/arminian summer / dry martini..and my bomb get funky,,

I believe the following is true....

At 9 Furlongs at Gulfstream during this meet and the prior two meets, only one horse has won from the 10 post or further out... Barbaro in the FL Derby last year.

SNS has got his work cut out for him. Can't fault anyone playing against him tomorrow at a short number.

Silver Wagon...

I think the post might be too much for SNS.

Here's how I price the race:

1 Dry Martini 7-1
2 Get Funky 20-1
3 Summer Book 30-1
4 Blazing Rate 25-1
5 Silver Wagon 4-1
6 Rehoboth 7-1
7 Papi Chullo 10-1
8 McCanns Mojave 10-1
9 Texcess 5-1
10 Bobs Proud Moment 50-1
11 Armenian Summer 25-1
12 Sweetnorthernsaint between 2-1 and 5-2

IF SNS is 5/2, I am putting 2k on him to win....I am alreaday dropping 1k on him, but I will double down if that is the case

I'm a big SNS fan, but I can think of better things to do with 2K then to place it on the nose of a horse that drew so poorly.

Going 4 wide into the first turn would not be a shock to me. And if that's the case, its going to be very difficult to win. Silver Wagon may be lower than 4-1; 7-2ish probably.

Look at it this way. If SNS loses, he will have a myriad of excuses. For one the post position. Also, Dominguez will probably make another premature move, which he may have to.

Scavs, not sure why you are so anxious to bet that kind of money on this horse. Why all the buzz surrounding him?

Yes its a bad field and he should win (on paper at least), but you and I see about 10 horses that look better than SNS lose every weekend.

I hope SNS wins for the simple reason that the Donn is looking like it has the potential for a big field and I'd hate to see Invasor or Premium Tap draw outside and scratch citing SNS's defeat as proof that you can't overcome an outside post at Gulfstream.

I really like SNS and his connections.....however I also remember Musique Toujours winning the last time the SM Classic was at GS, just thinking about it makes my jaw drop all over again.

I'm not betting him off a run first time in wraps with that post. I think he's off the board in the race.

Speaking on this race, this couldn't have happened very often....Silver Wagon and Rehoboth are full brothers.

Great post. SNS backers have a built in excuse in Dominguez this time. If he loses, I'm sure RD will take a beating, despite the bad post. If he wins, his horse was the best on paper, so he'll get no props. To all you bashers, here's your perfect chance for a 'bet against'...RD on a great horse with a terrible post and a decent field!!! Make sure you take advantage of it...no whining on Saturday night...:)

A couple hundred posts when Ramon blows the ride on a Contessa chalk. But the guy wins 5 in one day last week and hardly any posts. :rolleyes:

Exactly.

I gotta be honest...
 

I was actually going to get on here and ask if anyone knew anything about the Brothers horse!!!!! If nothing else, he has proven he can run 9f!! hahahahaha


but, I think Texcess has this one. Gogo will get him there and I think there's going to be plenty of horse. Who knows how he'll take GP, but I'll take that risk for a little price.

My selection too, good luck! :)

I thought my line was pretty good. OK Summer Book ran better than 30-1 but he wasn't exactly hammered at the windows. 30-1 on McCanns' Mojave was a bit much. Now if SNS had one of the inside 4 posts, what would he have been? 7-5? 6-5? In any event, one should avoid the far outside posts in 9f GP races.

Mccann's Mojave hadn't run a race with a number or performance that suggested he was capable of winning Saturday in over a year....30-1 seemed right about spot on. Summer Book looked a little underbet to me (and I got ripped to pieces before the race by one of the Chicago guys for saying that...who incidentally loved Get Funky:)). Summer Book had at least run competitive numbers twice last years...he just never got there.

The fact that he had in the past, albeit a year ago, was more than several of the others in that race could say. And he was in good form, off two wins so it was not impossible that he could move forward again back to the big fig from a year ago. Just what has Summer Book ever done around two turns? There also was no true definitive speed in the race, and MM figured to be close to the pace.

I'd like to say I cashed big but the F/M turf race blew up my P3 and P4 tickets.

As far as his two-turn races (just talking numbers here, which are not the end-all of the conversation, but a good starting point), he ran two "0" numbers on TG in the last year, both around two turns (one was the NJC Handicap at Hawthorne, I know off the top of my head). Those two numbers put him ahead of every horse in the race but SNS, Papi Chullo, and Silver Wagon (if you count his sprint races) in the last year. As far as the pure numbers that on paper would have been necessary to win that race, his best was right on target with the other runners in the race, and McCann's Mojave was simply not fast enough on paper to compete against this crew and distance at this time.

The horse ran a heck of a race, not taking that away from him, but after sitting at Gulfstream and arguing for the 40 minutes leading up to the race that Summer Book was a legit contender with anyone who would listen, it was nice to see him run back to one of his better races. I thought he was a much more legit contender than Mccann's Mojave and a more legit contender than 3/4 of the field actually. His better two-turn numbers were several lengths better than Silver Wagon's, and his price was nearly 15x as large....that doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

You guys should have had this argument before the race. A lot of good it does anybody now.

Well I was without internet access in Florida, or I would have gladly done so -- I was doing it with the folks at the track instead.

I'll give you credit for liking Summer Book. IMO, it was the best route I've seen him run, and nobody else was really finishing at the end. OTOH, maybe the field was just weak since SNS didn't show up, and Silver Wagon showed he's basically a one turn horse.

I thought Silver Wagon took way too much money, yet he certainly didnt run to it. Guess that kind of flaws your theory a bit?

I stupidly fell into the Get Funky trap. One of my worst bets since High Finance in the Belmont. I'm going to need a lot of time to get over that day, not sure if I will ever play again.

True, Rehoboth and Papi Chullo should have both been exotics contenders and we were talking at the track after the race that none of us could even remember watching them run or hearing them get a call...they were just completely non-threatening, like most of the field.

The inside horse looks like one to watch....he came into the race on the upswing and certainly ran a big one.

If you look earlier in this thread, I had Silver Wagon priced at 4-1 so I didn't feel he was overbet. If he runs to his one turn form, he's a strong contender. He just didn't. The m/l was off, IMO.

Hey B, how much $$ did you have on Summer Book? :D :p

How many beers had I had and how much money had I already lost?

I crafted my last $5 around an exacta P/W with him on top, so to answer your question....$5 :)

Though, we almost got to see table pooping after John laid into me for liking him!

Amen on that! With all the bird shitting going on, I'm kind of glad Summer Book DIDN'T win. I definitely didn't need to see that. :eek: