SNS - Possible screwed?
 

I don't think since the new configuration that a horse has won from the 12 hole.....

$1 Million Sunshine Millions Classic (Race 10, 5:45 p.m.), 4 & Up, 1 1/8 Miles
1. DRY MARTINI, 120, Velasquez, C
2. GET FUNKY, 120, Valdivia, Jr., J
3. SUMMER BOOK, 122, Guidry, M
4. BLAZING RATE, 120, Velez, Jr., J
5. SILVER WAGON, 122, Prado, E
6. REHOBOTH, 120, Cruz, M
7. PAPI CHULLO, 122, Smith, M
8. MCCANN'S MOJAVE, 122, Alvarado, F
9. TEXCESS, 122, Gomez, G
10. BOB'S PROUD MOMENT, 122, Bejarano, R
11. ARMENIAN SUMMER, 122, Velazquez, J
12. SWEETNORTHERNSAINT, 120, Dominguez, R

good to know the RATE is alive and kicking. Got sore last year and went downhill in a hurry:(

This is a solid race this year. Now time to GET FUNKY! :D

He really got screwed, but that might help the odds a little, maybe get the ML

12 hole is 0-1 this year, don't have last years stats

Especially with Ramon, he is bound to do something stupid all the way out there

Should scratch the horse.

Dry Martini got the rail and a positive rider switch.

I kind of hate to see a horse like Sweetnorthernsaint get screwed by that post on such an unfair track.

Total situation where he is going to run huge to get screwed and be gutted for the year

At that track and distance, the 12 hole is a death sentence.

If there is another alternative for him I would think that they might want to scratch.

Their won't be for a million dollars, he does lay over this field and it might help the odds (maybe get 5/2 now that the media will go nuts about the 12 hole?)

I think this track has been pretty even this year and there was one full field of 3YO maidens going 1 1/8th where the 10 and 11 were a close second and third.

I am not immediately familiar with the field but Dry Martini is OK. He has run three straight triple digit Beyers and could be improving.

Yeah, I just looked through it, and it's a mediocre bunch.

Out of curiousity, how does SNS get weight from this group?

Without looking at the PP's, I'm guessing there's a good chance Papi Chullo sucks up for 3rd or 4th. Doesn't he always??

I've watched exactly zero races from Gulfstream this year, so I'm about the last person to ask on this, but I don't recall any horse winning from the 11 or 12 hole last year at 9F...?

I guess 4YOs vs olders.

2lbs in TG terms is about a half length, could mean the difference from that crazy post

Ramon is not a panicker and has a decent ability to get inside from outside posts. That being said, that post is problematic, though gunning is probably the right move. He will have to be a few lengths the best, at least, to overcome that post, which is highly debatable. It'll be easier when the pps are out however.

Looking right now to see what speed is inside of him.....

Quick speed analysis from the bootleg PP's on Gulfstream's site
 

he might be able to be 3w going into the turn, Get Funky and Bob's Proud Moment will show speed, but both of those have been turf speed, which we all know is different then dirt speed. Could be even 2w because Bob Proud hasn't shown serious gate speed until his last.

I think SNS will be fine. I happen to think this field is OK. It is an interesting group to say the least. Texcess is an ok horse. Silver Wagon is a mystery as to the distance (I dont think he can get it) and Dry Martini is in good form. But the horse I sort of like is the 2 horse. It should be a good day of racing.

If anything......
 

this might have 'helped' my odds. he is the 9/5 ML and people will try and beat him that far out, it will happen sooner or later, and sooner is better then later in this spot....

It's a very difficult post.

However, it's a weak field, and he has the absolute perfect jockey for the situation.

Ramon Dominguez annually seems to show a flat bet profit in route races, and amazingly, he does that riding mostly on a circuit where his mounts are always, seemingly wildly overbet.

He's a guy who is very commited to saving ground....and maybe the only jockey in racing who always seems much more comfortable riding the rail than being outside of horses.

Texcess has turned up with a few big efforts now and again...maybe he'll surprise.

I think so too.

Terrible post for SNS however its not like this is the Donn with Invasor and others in it. Also gets a 2lb break

Not alot of speed in this race and probably the best formwise- Dry Martini down on the inside where as we all know could have problems if they box him in

Probably wont bet SNS at 9/5 but if he goes up!!! (Hope people write him off because of the post) Def Bet if he is up at 3/1

Texcess has a good chance if he breaks good and a horse I think could hit the board(3 or 4) at a nice price --Rehoboth

Texcess...love that he shows up in these types of races every once in a while. I'm pretty sure that's why he's still kept in training.

I don't think he's going to see the rail in this one.

One advantage SNS has with that post is natural speed. Its not like he will have to be pushed out of his normal comfort zone in order to make his way to the leading group and possibly be only 2-3 wide on the first turn.

I would just recommend that he not be pushed too much out of the gate and perhaps be allowed to move from off the pace a bit on the backstretch if necessary.

So much will depend on how the rest of the field breaks. I really like this horse but the post is troublesome and I don't think he is so much clearly superior to the rest of the field that he can still win given a fast and wide run on the first turn.