Next Big Stallion? What is your opinion?
 

Stallions like Giant's Causeway and Montjue have recently emerged as the heir apparents to their sires - Storm Cat and Sadler's Wells, whom have been the highest-regarded modern day stallions in North America and Europe, respectively.

Of the new stallions in North America, which do you think has the best chance to change the breed and emerge as a leading sire heading into the next decade?

This question spawns from discussion of this in another thread, but it certainly deserved its own.

While Fusaichi Pegasus is already somewhat established, I still believe he will be one of the next great American stallions...he doesn't get the respect of farm-mate Giant's Causeway right now, but I think he will down the road.

As for new stallions, I love Vindication and really believe he can be the next A.P. Indy-type when it comes to passing along the good Seattle Slew blood.

Thoughts?

Montjeu looks to be a cracker jack to me.

I think Lion Heart will throw some runners also, he definitely will have a good chance to have a champion with as many mares as he has visited. His miler speed will come through well. Especially down under.

Yeah, I like Lion Heart as well....not many horses alive that are more attractive than him...he was not only fast he is a looker....beautiful horse..

As for Montjue, he is off to a great start in Ireland and now Coolmore is really sending the better mares to him from what I'm hearing....Hurricane Run is considered by many as THE best European Classic performer that Coolmore has ever campaigned over there and he was just in Montjue's first crop, as was Motivator, etc......nice young stallion...

Vindication wasn't very sound, what if he passes that on, might hurt him.

I saw Vindication run at Turfway, he beat a bunch of donkeys, he looked impressive beating those donkeys, but they were donkeys none the less. Then he won with a speed bias at Arlington, not sure if he was really that good of a horse.

Empire Maker is going to be the NEXT SUPER STUD, no doubt in my mind. With the book of mares that he is getting, he is going to throw horses that win from 6f to 12f, turf/dirt or poly, it will not matter. I actually think he is going to be a better turf sire then dirt sire. Anees, of Unbridled progeny, was a great turf sire and his bottom is not NEARLY as strong as Maker's is. When his horses hit the turf, LOOK OUT!!!

I LOOK FORWARD to unloading against his 2 year olds going 5.5 furlongs or less, lots of money to be made there I think because people are going to unload on his horses. Once they start running 7f and longer with his horses, it is rubberband time....

I don't think anyone from this crop is the next big stallion. I do think that next years crop will be very good though, maybe they won't both hit but at least one of the tandem of Empire MAker and Mineshaft will hit. The nice part is that both should sire stayers instead of 5 furlong freaks. We sorely need that right now.

Agree that Monjeu is the next great one from the Northern Dancer line. How about Forestry? Discreet Cat and the $16 million dollar Monkey. Now he'll see some classier mares.

Out of every horse that has been mentioned only Mineshafter ran past the age of three, and he ran until he was a nice ripe age of four. No wonder why horses are so fragile these days. I think you might see the next stallion to make the bigest mark in horse racing is going to come from New York. Say Florida Sandy. He ran for seven yers 98 races 1-3 over 60% of the time. 41 times he had a speed number over 100. I had an opertunity to see jis baby's. His yearlings look like two year olds. They are all images of him, colts and fillies alike. Many of them foal at 145 and up. there was just one reported at 210lbs in Maryland. Do yourselves a favor and don't count him out b/c he is a NY bred.

I think FP is very overrated, myself.......

No matter the buzz on Mineshaft, I still think he's going to be a great sire. He's just got too much pedigree power and awesome ability.

Sky Mesa also wouldn't surprise me; he was very talented and comes from a superior family.

Next year is shaping up to be something terrific.........

I' looking forward to Ghostzapper's offspring, his book must be one of the best (I would imagine) and as the saying goes 'breed the best to the best and then hope for the best'

As a sprint sire I look forward to seeing Songandaprayer's future runners, esp now that he has made the move to KY. He has already shown ability to improve a mare...

I like Aptitude. He might not be the next "great sire" because I'm not sure how versitile his progeny will be, but I love his chances to be a great classic-race sire. His own pedigree (by AP Indy - out of a Northern Dancer mare), and his success at classic distances (remember his romp in the JCGC!) make me think he will produce a lot of horses that love to run beyond 9f on the dirt.
I think Steppenwolfer may be the first of several Aptitude colts that are factors on the TC trail, and if he stays healthy I bet Steppenwolfer has a nice career in the handicap division just like his old man.

He's got some good turf performers thus far, so maybe keep an eye on him as far as that goes. I loved Aptitude - Alex Solis' ride in the Belmont against Commendable was a disgraceful performance which I won't soon forgive or forget. Aptitude should have won that race by open lengths. In any case, I hope you're right about him - he looks also to have a nice 2 year old who won his debut at Lone Star (forgot his name, though........)

Interesting article by George Smith who arranged the mating that resulted in Vindication and his logic to pick Seattle Slew as the sire.

http://www.pedigreepost.com/archives...onGWSmith.html

Great article!
Strawberry Road stood at High Cliff before going to Austrailia.
If you get a chance, go to nybreds and have a look at Best of Luck off the High Cliff link (right side, blue).
One of my mares is in foal to him. I really like the Turn-To 3X3.
Thanks for sharing.
DTS

I like Mr. Livingston the best out of any so far... he stands down here in Florida for a meager $3,500 stud fee. http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/isd...ion_no=4308090

As for Kentucky studs, I think that Saint Liam is going to make some noise. :D

What about this guy?

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/isd...ion_no=4299496

Hasn't had anything great yet, but he's definitely a nice looking stallion.

Broadbrush probably has made more money in the shed than any other sire. So why cant one of his sons be a success?

obviously im rooting for point given and smarty jones to be monsters in the shed but another newbie whos pleasing me so far is king cugat, his 5k fee wont be that low for a long time i suspect

I really like Three Chimney's Smarty Jones.

Rockhardten Just a big boy.

Medaglia D'Oro will be the next Super Stud.

you may be right on

came home is already getting a lot of notice.
i like mineshaft as well. he's the heir apparent to ap indy.

as for some of the horses who will pass on unsoundness, GZ would never get near any mare i had. and you can pay 200k to get that fragility. hey, go for it.

I liked Include as a racehorse, but the fact is taht sons of Broad Brush haven't been a success as stallions and I could never breed to them until they were proven....not enough speed in the family..

I absolutely loved this horse...might be the best looking horse I have ever seen....couldn't take my eyes off of him...but, sons of Kris S. haven't been very good sires and a lot of bloodstock agents believe that Rock Hard Ten will suffer because of his paternal side.....I'm very anxious to see how he turns out...his foals should have a lot of size, at least...I actually considered him for my best mare before going to Vindication..

Joel, its slighty off the topic, but yet somewhat related. I am wondering what you think of the stud possibilities for the last few darling three year olds, Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones?

Whew, that's a toughy and I'll be bruttally honest...

I think Smarty Jones will get every chance to be a good stallion obviously because he is getting an unbelievable book of mares....Personally, I think he will only be okay when you look back on him and consider the mares he is getting....he was never a big horse and i question his pedigree to a degree..with that being said, Elusive Quality has a solid reputation and its not like he is horribly bred....I percieve Elusive Oualitys to get good racehorses more so than good stallions, if that makes any sense at all. (same principle of broodmare sires who can get producers but not necessarily good racemares)

The market allows for him to stand for $100K right now but I would not at all be surprised to see him come way down after a few crops hit the track....just my opinion....I always thought Lemon Drop Kid was way overpriced at $100K and would not prove to be a great stallion ad now he stands for $20K...we'll see, but if I had $100K I would rather go to Empire Maker or Pulpit or another stud....we'll see.

But with that being said, I also thought Mineshaft would prove to be a very good sire at $100K and it looks like I will be wrong because everybody is really cold and concerned about his babies...not nearly as good as expected and now his stud fee looks like it will plumit in a year ot two...

As for Afleet Alex, I personaly thing he was a better horse than Smarty Jones and had tremendous ability...on his best day he could beat about any horse in the world...I really believe that...his 3/8 of a mile burst was maybe the best I've ever seen (but I'm young).

With that being said, he has a very uninspiring pedigree and will be labled as a Skip Away or Silver Charm (and any other great horse that had a subpar pedigree) until he proves that he can produce past his pedigree.

I, for one, think he'll be the type of horse who will have some really fast horses and some really bad horses, and will be a useful stallion at a certain level...now, will $40,000 be the level?...he'll probably drop from there. But, I see him having a more prductive stallion career than some of the greats I mentioned above at a solid fee range of around $20-$30 K...we'll see

Well I'm not Joel, but I think Afleet Alex might turn out to be a very good sire. He is out of a Hawkster mare, and Hawkster could run short or long, turf or dirt and be effective (and I think he once set a world reecord for 12f). He also won G1 stakes at 2, 3 and 4.
Afleet Alex actually has a few really good turf runners on his dam side (I believe former US grass horse of the year Hawaii) and AA won stakes races on dirt from 6f all the way to 12f. His offspring could be very versitile runners. I like his chances a lot.

As for Smarty Jones. I loved him as a racehorse, and I hope he turns out to be a great sire, but I am just really not sure.

Mineshaft...

Cunningham, my question to you re: Mineshaft:

No matter how ugly/awkward/ etc.......his offspring appear to be now, don't you think breeders will at least wait until they run before judging him? Ok, maybe he won't sire the big, good-looking horses that sell well, but he is was still a superior racehorse with a superior pedigree and still has every right to be a great sire. Are stud fees set based on expected yearling sales prices or racetrack performance? If the former, then based on the lack of buzz, I guess I can understand why his stud fee would go down. However, isn't it still all about performance? How can any farm manager who dislikes Mineshaft's foals possibly even know whether they can run or not?I guess what I don't understand is that he was very highly regarded coming off the track; he was expected to be AP Indy's successor. Why is that not still possible? It makes no sense. Mineshaft hasn't lost his genetic ability between the time he retired and now - his pedigree is still the same. What is different, other than his foals are not precocious?

I would sincerely hope that, since Mineshaft was AP Indy's best horse (although Pulpit was right up there - he was brilliant) and the best hope to carry on the Bold Ruler line (what are the odds on Vindication being anywhere near as good as Indy at stud? Not very good, no matter how nice his foals are), breeders will at least give him a shot to suceeed before calling him a dud and forcing Lane's End to send him to Japan. How depressing -IMO,Mineshaft is still a better prospect at stud than Empire Maker and before he even gets off the ground, he's already deemed a failure.

it may not be that they are ugly/awkward but actually twisted/crooked--he may have a lot of foals getting their ankles done, or they may be over or back @ the knee etc...not that I have actually seen his foals but it's a possiblity. If they are seeing serious faults in a large sample of his get that can be a problem. Happens all the time with some of the best, how often do you hear someone say 'he's very correct for a storm cat'....

smarty jones was a very good horse and had great determination.
afleet alex, i think, had more overall talent and just as much if not more determination.he could have been a great horse. i'd love to seen alex on the turf!
if they can pass along their determination qualities, their youngster will do well.

This is interesting, but it kind of makes me sick. I watch racing to see athletes run.

A sample of my nausea, a direct quote from Bloodhorse, Throroughbred Champions of the 20th century:

Easy Goer died at the age of eight after having sired JUST 136 foals in four years. The son of Alydar didn't have enough time to PROVE HIS WORTH...

Alrighty then. WTF is this supposed to mean?

mineshaft the best since the bid randy? i know you love the horse but how do you come to that conclusion? who did mineshaft beat? by the way in case if you forgot mineshaft ducked out and didnt show for racings biggest day. sheet numbers and beating 5 horse fields dont make you "great" or the best since any1

Playa.
Mineshaft ran against 5 horse fields because everyone was scared to death to get on the track with him. Those other horses were expecting a share of the purse money. Good God. Think back on how many times Frankel ran away with Megs... It was ridiculous. Everyone knew they would not beat this guy so they ran AWAY. The only way you beat this guy was to completely weigh him down. And thats when you get the really good races, like with PD. This was a tremendous animal. I loved his running style. One of the most efficient horses I have ever watched.

Oh yes.

And I hope all of these guys offspring are complete flops.
Keep em on the track if they are healthy.
Keep em running.

In the first few years a stallion is at stud, breeders often have no idea about which type of mares will go best with him. Early in his stud career, Damascus was expected to sire stamina, so he was given speedy mares but it turned out that Big D sired his dam's speed and needed staying mares to sire anything more than sprinters. With his early death, Easy Goer didn't get a chance to get the adjustment to his matings that would have given him the best shot as a stallion.

Playa,

I can only go by what I've seen. He was ducked like nobody else. He ran for Howard who is as clean as it gets. He was never asked in any of his races. Like I said all I do is watch races. He is the single best horse I've seen since I started watching. And say what you will about sheet numbers, they mean something and based on them only Ghostzapper has ever run faster (in history, not just the last 20 years) and that was 1 time. I know what I saw. I don't look to convince anyone else.

By the way I think a serious argument can be made that Spectacular Bid was better than Secretariat (at least over a career.) I will hold off making that proclamation b/c I simply haven't seen enough of the races on videotape. But Bid's career as I have looked at it is astounding. Fast everywhere he went. Few flops, Secretariat would throw in some stinkers.

Dance With Ravens might be the heir apparent to AP Indy. It will take several years to tell, but he is by A.P. Indy and out of a champion mare from a family that has already produced the top stallion Smart Strike. His first two dams are Champions and he was a Graded stakes winner on both turf and dirt in an injury shortened career. He is just 4 and has already serviced a full book. If he has success early his books will get much better and he'll still be very young.