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-   -   The leading poly sire is... (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8607)

sumitas 01-08-2007 05:02 PM

The leading poly sire is...
 
from 8/6/06 - 1/10/07 win% with at least 10 starts ---data from ALL WEATHER TRACKS ONLY
HADIF 45% from 11 starts and 5 wins--2 runners
http://www.pedigreequery.com/hadif

40% from 10 starts and 4 wins WELBRED FRED is 2nd--2 runners
http://www.pedigreequery.com/welbred+fred

UNBRIDLED JET 39% 28 starts 11 wins--6 runners
http://www.pedigreequery.com/unbridled+jet

STORM AND A HALF 38% 16 starts 6 wins--9 runners
http://www.pedigreequery.com/storm+and+a+half
source:thoroughfax

DISTANT VIEW 36% 14 starts 5 wins--5 runners
http://www.pedigreequery.com/distant+view2

AeWingnut 01-08-2007 05:24 PM

and if you see a horse sired by Othello running at Turfway .. bet him no matter what his odds are. 50-1 , 70-1 .. don't matter
seen it twice - bet it once

paisjpq 01-08-2007 05:27 PM

Sumitas...I appreciate the info, although I think the small sample size hurts the argument some...How many of these are repeat starts by the same horse vs. starts from unique runners?

sumitas 01-08-2007 05:34 PM

see my addition to the first post

highest itm %
HADIF 82%
DANEHILL 69%
CITY ZIP 64 %
ELNADIM 64%
THREE WONDERS 64%
UNBRIDLED JET 64%
TRIPPI 63%
JP HAMER 60%
MONTBROOK 60%

AeWingnut 01-08-2007 05:36 PM

Thanks for doing the research

paisjpq 01-08-2007 05:37 PM

using the number of runners I would say that Storm and a Half actually has the best record since it can't be argued that a horse just gets one or two freak runners that love the poly. high percentage of winners combined with high number of unique runners is what I would base my data on...but thats JMO:)

The Bid 01-08-2007 05:38 PM

I have a couple Distant Views that will be debuting at TWP in a few weeks. We'll see how they run.

sumitas 01-08-2007 05:49 PM

all the best...you got to say they have a shot there.
DISTANT VIEW is 50% itm on the poly.

AeWingnut 01-08-2007 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
I have a couple Distant Views that will be debuting at TWP in a few weeks. We'll see how they run.

if they can stay off the rail

Danzig 01-08-2007 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paisjpq
using the number of runners I would say that Storm and a Half actually has the best record since it can't be argued that a horse just gets one or two freak runners that love the poly. high percentage of winners combined with high number of unique runners is what I would base my data on...but thats JMO:)

bye bye arkansas?

paisjpq 01-08-2007 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188
bye bye arkansas?

Que? :confused:

Danzig 01-08-2007 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paisjpq
Que? :confused:


lol
was talking about storm and a half--he stands in arkansas, was wondering if having some success (esp with downthedustyroad) might move him out of ark??

paisjpq 01-08-2007 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188
lol
was talking about storm and a half--he stands in arkansas, was wondering if having some success (esp with downthedustyroad) might move him out of ark??

gotcha...I wouldn't worry about losing him just yet;) sample is too small IMO...but if he keeps it up maybe...who knows

JJP 01-08-2007 07:12 PM

IMO none of the top Polytrack sires were on that list. IMO some of the top sires are: Grand Slam, Running Stag, Petionville & Sea of Secrets.

sumitas 01-09-2007 12:18 AM

GRAND SLAM 19% wins from 146 starts 28 wins --66 runners--itm 43%
RUNNING STAG 19% wins from 93 starts--32 runners--itm 34%
PETIONVILLE 11% wins from 79 starts--37 runners--itm 30%
SEA OF SECRETS 8% wins from 59 starts--23 runners--itm 27%

most starts 197 BOLD EXECUTIVE 14% wins --61 runners--itm 39%
most runners 67 TALE OF THE CAT 81 starts 18% wins--itm 45%

COZZENE is one of my favs 27% wins from 26 starts---16 runners--itm 46%
TOUR D'OR 29% wins from 24 starts--6 runners--itm 50%

source:thoroughfax

JJP 01-09-2007 10:04 AM

But what about the ROIs? Petitionville has already had two $120 plus winners.

Tale of the Cat is another good one. Most of the Storm Cat line seem to take to it.

Do you have numbers on Pioneering, Storm Cat's 1/2 bro?

sumitas 01-09-2007 06:43 PM

PIONEERING 7% winners from 73 starts--33 runners--itm 33%

the AP Indys are getting off slow although AP INDY himself is 40% itm; the best is STEPHEN GOT EVEN 17% wins 75 starts--30 runners--itm 35%

DEPUTY MINISTERS are off slow topped by WILLOWY AMBASSADOR 20% wins from 25 starts--4 runners--itm 36%
and FOREST CAMP 16% winners from 51 starts--28 runners--itm 31%
and DEPUTY COMMANDER 14% wins from 96 starts--39 runners-itm 43%

SKIP AWAY gets a lot of poly ink 19% wins 113 starts--35 runners--44% itm

Danzig 01-09-2007 06:44 PM

always liked cozzene, he's getting up there in age tho now. enjoy him while you can.

paisjpq 01-09-2007 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sumitas

SKIP AWAY gets a lot of poly ink 19% wins 113 starts--35 runners--44% itm

MY favorite:) I always look for his on the poly.

ManilaRose 01-09-2007 09:23 PM

For what it's worth Military had the highest average winning purse of any KY sire at Turfway in 05-06.

ShadowRoll 01-10-2007 01:52 AM

Also for what it's worth, here's a couple of not-too-dated articles from Bloodstock Journal on poly bloodlines (garnered from Woodbine and Keeneland meets):

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/edito...le.cgi?id=5608

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/edito...le.cgi?id=6153

JJP 01-10-2007 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sumitas
PIONEERING 7% winners from 73 starts--33 runners--itm 33%

the AP Indys are getting off slow although AP INDY himself is 40% itm; the best is STEPHEN GOT EVEN 17% wins 75 starts--30 runners--itm 35%

DEPUTY MINISTERS are off slow topped by WILLOWY AMBASSADOR 20% wins from 25 starts--4 runners--itm 36%
and FOREST CAMP 16% winners from 51 starts--28 runners--itm 31%
and DEPUTY COMMANDER 14% wins from 96 starts--39 runners-itm 43%

SKIP AWAY gets a lot of poly ink 19% wins 113 starts--35 runners--44% itm

Good point about AP Indy runners not handling it. And he seems to have transferred this Poly disdain to his son Pulpit.

Balletto 01-10-2007 11:28 AM

Its such a weird time for breeders. You hate to jump to conclusions with such small sample sizes, yet if you breed this spring, your foal wont be racing until 2010 at the earliest and where does that leave you?

Storm and a Half is interesting. That family produces top-notch fillies without much noise from the colts. Interesting results so far with him.

sumitas 01-10-2007 12:16 PM

MILITARY 19% WINNERS from 48 starts---18 runners--itm 40%
the Danzigs seem to be doing quite well.

PULPIT 10% winners from 87 starts---38 runners---itm 31%

MONTBROOK pops out with 23% winners from 30 starts--13 runners--itm 60%
and his exciting son just located to Ky from NY THUNDERELLO 16% winners from 19 starts --7 runners--itm 53%

source: Thoroughfax

Balletto 01-10-2007 12:18 PM

I always thought Thunderello would be a very useful sire. I was surprised to see him go to NY after standing his initial retirement in Kentucky in the first place. He comes from an excellent stallion producing family.

Military is just as solid as they come regardless of surface. A real nice breed to race stallion who should be a damn good broodmare sire.

Sightseek 01-10-2007 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Balletto
I always thought Thunderello would be a very useful sire. I was surprised to see him go to NY after standing his initial retirement in Kentucky in the first place. He comes from an excellent stallion producing family.

.

His weanlings and yearlings are enormous.

Balletto 01-10-2007 12:25 PM

Good to know... if I remember right, he also has a club foot. I dont know that to be fact, just what I heard.

I know Pulpit gets a good number of club-footed foals. You can sometimes find an extremely well-bred daughter of his for cheap.

sumitas 01-10-2007 12:26 PM

Thunderello should be in very high demand this season.

paisjpq 01-10-2007 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Balletto
Good to know... if I remember right, he also has a club foot. I dont know that to be fact, just what I heard.

I know Pulpit gets a good number of club-footed foals. You can sometimes find an extremely well-bred daughter of his for cheap.

if you check out his picture on Walmac website he does look like the near front foot is somewhat clubby...but he's not on a hard surface so the foot is somewhat obscured by the sand...could also be an optical ilusion since the foot is white

kentuckyrosesinmay 01-10-2007 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Balletto
I always thought Thunderello would be a very useful sire. I was surprised to see him go to NY after standing his initial retirement in Kentucky in the first place. He comes from an excellent stallion producing family.

Military is just as solid as they come regardless of surface. A real nice breed to race stallion who should be a damn good broodmare sire.

I like Military, but then again, I am a little biased.

eurobounce 01-10-2007 03:52 PM

I always thought that Tejano Run would be a good polytrack sire. Do we have any data on him.

kentuckyrosesinmay 01-10-2007 03:56 PM

Thunderello is definitely club footed on the near side. His angulation is not correct. You know it's funny. In my experience with working with horses, almost every time a darker colored horse has a light colored hoof, that hoof has problems...whether it be fungal problems, a dished hoof, a brittle hoof, a smaller hoof than the other darker colored hooves, contracted heels, or club hooves. It almost never fails.

I honestly didn't ever recognize that until I was about sixteen when I watched a video and Rodney Jenkins pointed it out.

sumitas 01-11-2007 05:16 PM

TEJANO RUN 12% winners from 67 starts-- 23 runners--30% itm

and the new Montbrook on the scene, Chapel Royal, will he produce on the poly like his sire and Thunderello ?

sourse: Thoroughfax

Danzig 01-11-2007 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay
Thunderello is definitely club footed on the near side. His angulation is not correct. You know it's funny. In my experience with working with horses, almost every time a darker colored horse has a light colored hoof, that hoof has problems...whether it be fungal problems, a dished hoof, a brittle hoof, a smaller hoof than the other darker colored hooves, contracted heels, or club hooves. It almost never fails.

I honestly didn't ever recognize that until I was about sixteen when I watched a video and Rodney Jenkins pointed it out.

that's odd...i was always under the impression that lighter colored hooves were weaker, but then i read (in bloodhorse maybe) that it really isn't the case--according to that author.

Danzig 01-11-2007 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Balletto
I always thought Thunderello would be a very useful sire. I was surprised to see him go to NY after standing his initial retirement in Kentucky in the first place. He comes from an excellent stallion producing family.

Military is just as solid as they come regardless of surface. A real nice breed to race stallion who should be a damn good broodmare sire.

military is one i'm keeping an eye on. wish him all the luck!

kentuckyrosesinmay 01-11-2007 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188
that's odd...i was always under the impression that lighter colored hooves were weaker, but then i read (in bloodhorse maybe) that it really isn't the case--according to that author.

I trust Hall of Fame Horsemen like Rodney Jenkens and my own personal experience when disputes such as these arise. For instance, I have a mare at the barn that has one light colored hoof and it is smaller than the rest. She also has a wierd fungus that comes up on the back of her heel on that foot every fall. And she is not the only example. There are a lot more, but I'm too lazy to type them up:p :D

It's just like some people argue that horses lower their head down to the ground to figure out what an object is at a long distance away. This is actually published in books such as The Horse Industry Handbook. Almost everyone who works with horses knows that this isn't the case and that horses actually raise their heads to look when something is spooking them at a distance.

sumitas 01-11-2007 06:19 PM

I've noticed that Cox's Ridge do well on poly
LITTLE MISSOURI 20% winners from 10 starts--2 runners--itm 50%
ELTISH 18% winners from 22 starts--5 runners--itm 41%
SULTRY SONG 15% winners from 48 starts--14 runners-itm 40%
OUT OF PLACE 9% winners from 85 starts--29 runners--itm 35%

source: Thoroughfax

Danzig 01-11-2007 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay
I trust Hall of Fame Horsemen like Rodney Jenkens and my own personal experience when disputes such as these arise. For instance, I have a mare at the barn that has one light colored hoof and it is smaller than the rest. She also has a wierd fungus that comes up on the back of her heel on that foot every fall. And she is not the only example. There are a lot more, but I'm too lazy to type them up:p :D

It's just like some people argue that horses lower their head down to the ground to figure out what an object is at a long distance away. This is actually published in books such as The Horse Industry Handbook. Almost everyone who works with horses knows that this isn't the case and that horses actually raise their heads to look when something is spooking them at a distance.

lol
i always understood they raised them as well. better watch 'dogs' then dogs!

Balletto 01-12-2007 08:46 AM

Funny enough, I just heard Storm and a Half was sold to a Kentucky farm for 7 figures. I believe its Hill N Dale... i'd imagine it will be released in a few days.

paisjpq 01-12-2007 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Balletto
Funny enough, I just heard Storm and a Half was sold to a Kentucky farm for 7 figures. I believe its Hill N Dale... i'd imagine it will be released in a few days.

downthedustyroad certainly brought a nice price yesterday...his stock is on the rise..


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