Count Fleet
 

For those who are close to the New York racing scene, how does Johannesburg Star look? How does Kiaran's horse look like - No Reply I think if his name? Basically, anyone have any good information to share regarding this race?

Sir Whimsey..

If Jstar runs back to his last, does he move to a top contender? Will the offers top the 2M already offered?

Again, you're wayyyy off base on this. He'll be at LEAST 10-1.

Steve -
What are your thoughts on Believeinmenow?

Would he be a sheets play against for successively moving up a decent amount (by beyers, a 24 and 25 figure each time) vs. gradually moving up each race?

I think No Reply lays over the field. Only slop would keep me from taking anything over 9:5. I hope they fall for Johannesburg Star, who isn't impossible but not likely, and somehow No Reply is second choice.

Not to answer for Byk, but IMO he's about the worst horse in the race and the one of the least likely winners.

Is he one of the horses who really benefited from the bias?

Yes and he can't clear here.

Yes, he galloped home in front on a day when every single race was a wire job. Only 3 horses actually passed rivals in the lane that day. I can honestly say I'd never seen a more biased ractrack. Out of that race, I'd prefer Sir Whimsey, who chased.
No Reply looks pretty good though.

Thanks for your input. :)

Generally handicapping question though, even though it's hard to create a hypothetical situation with so many factors at work; if a horse didn't win off a bias and had those sort of increases in Beyers, would you stay away from him or not? (assuming the odds were fair)

That's a bit too general as I look at a lot of factors. Horses that run good races without any trip advantages did just that....ran a good race. How that stacks up against the competition is what matters to me. I don't really think about horses showing improvement as though they are climbing some sort of ladder and thus rate to continue to improve, not to say I would criticize someone who does, it just isn't how I evaluate horses and races.

I don't believe in " bounce " at all if that is in any way what you are asking.

Again thanks for answering my questions.

BTW has my proxy on your question.. (I was writing up the AQU P4)..

Thanks for the reminder. I liked him from the PP's, but had forgotten about the last race bias. Bad thing to forget.

Wasn't going to bet the race, but was going to use him if I do the contest this weekend.

--Dunbar

I think he'll be empty long before he hits West Virginia.

He is a goat, how can you endorse such an obviously overmatched horse?

I think this "goat" can hit the board here. I like the post and i think the track is made to "order"".

He sure didn't get the cleverest of rides or trips last time and is in a great position tomorrow to get something. I doubt he's good enough to win, not that you implied that at all, but I also think he can hit the board. I would take a price in a prop against Johannesburg Star.

I guess it depends a bit on the track though I would guess you would be happy with mud. Besides his muddy track effort the randomness that associates itself with off-tracks works in your favor.

He was flat last race. I know the track was "inside", but he wasn't going to do much that day. He is fresh, and had a good blowout for the race. The favorite hasn't worked since his maiden, and was planned to do so earlier this week but CC Lopez pulled him up before the breeze for one reason or another. I fear No Reply in here. He will have to adjust to the quicker pace though...

Congrats, very nice win.

Congrats to Gander for chatting about this horse since entries were released and of course to outofthebox who got the horse there! :)

That is the biggest and fastest goat I have ever seen!!!!
Great call buddy.

You can have that entire field, the whole group was STAGGERING down the lane and there isn't one of them who won't be running for a tag by summer. That being said, nice job by the winners but, he's no Achilles of Troy so, hopefully there won't be any "he's our derby horse articles" like last winter courtesy of Dave Grening and the Paraneck braintrust. Unless Pedersen and Amonte get involved. Then it will at least be entertaining.

note to C.C. Lopez -

Going 4 wide into the stretch on the inner will guarantee you 2nd on the best horse.

But you already know that...

Jennifer Pedersen please
 

Hold on Mr. President! Maybe Pink Viper can! Come May, we are either going to be surprised or not. Really I just miss Jennifer Pedersen and look forward to her return. As a $2 bettor and someone who loves to watch them run, I have noticed a lot of Paraneck action at this winter's meet...can't they afford to fly to FLA? Lol...i am hoping for a May surprise too!

"Jennifer Pedersen (2004 Song of the Sword, 11th): The 41-year-old Pedersen made history, along with 21-year-old Kristin Mulhall, who became the first females to saddle horses in the same Derby in 130 years. Pedersen Also saddles two Preakness horses; Griffinite in 2001 and New York Hero in 2003."

Anybody that seriously thinks Pink Viper has a major future on the TC trail needs to get a tune up. There were THREE crazy rides in that race....on the second, third and fourth finishers....and only Arroyo seemed on the ball. I'm genuinely happy for Outofthebox but let's keep a little perspective. I know this is the internet, the land of no accountability, but this was not a stellar bunch ( though No Reply MAY turn out OK ) and the winner may well have been fourth best.

I'm still chuckling that the Jimmy Bond horse ( who someone here claimed was taking Bond to the Derby ) was 5-2. Stuff like that keeps me going.

I am chuckling with you...and looking for the real contenders. thanks, mark

Thanks for the congrats, it was a fun day. Pink Viper got the trip i envisioned from the inside and got a beautiful ride from Norberto. I did watch the replay closely and did notice a few difficult trips by the also rans. But that's part of this great game we cherish. Somedays things never seem to go right and you go home dissapointed. But everyone in this biz works 7 days a week all year long and hopefully the hard work and long hours produces results like today.

Nice.

Everyone that works hard in this game deserves all the good luck they can get.....as there will be plenty of bad luck way too often.

The field may not have been very good, but they were good enough for YOU to say that Pink Viper was "obviously overmatched" by the rest of them before the race.

Yes, the field is even worse than I suspected. How about the guy that offered 2 million for johanesburg Star, you think he's breathing a sigh of relief that those connections were too stupid to take his money?

There's a better chance there's a Santa Claus than somebody actually offered two million for that horse.

have photographic proof that there is a santa claus...had my dogs picture taken with him @ the mall :D :D