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-   -   They'll be Hanging From the Rafters at the Big A Friday (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8350)

blackthroatedwind 01-01-2007 02:34 PM

They'll be Hanging From the Rafters at the Big A Friday
 
Jazil returns.....



8th (3:48)

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Allowance Optional Claiming ($40,000) | Purse: $48,000

Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Take the Bluff Coa E M 118 L
2 Chief Speed Luzzi M J 123 L
3 Admiral's Arch Bridgmohan S X 118 L
4 Lieutenant Danz Lopez C C 118 L
5 Wallstreet Scandal Martin E M Jr 118 L
6 City Attraction Madrid M 113 L
7 Shmooo Dominguez R A 118 L
8 Jazil Jara F

Gander 01-01-2007 02:36 PM

Kasept will be happy too. He loves that horse Take the Bluff. Always puts him in the mix. I remember he liked him a lot that day Reverberate got nosed out by AP Arrow at Saratoga.

SniperSB23 01-01-2007 02:49 PM

Well since Jazil always runs between 24 and 25 seconds per two furlongs regardless of the distance or the pace of the race that should put him right around 1:44 which won't get it done here. Too short for him.

Sightseek 01-01-2007 02:50 PM

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :cool:

my miss storm cat 01-01-2007 04:00 PM

Hey Sightseek..... Jazil!
 
Sorry if this was already mentioned..... still getting caught up.

He's entered on Friday, R8.....:)

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbR...2007&STYLE=EQB

edit: Can on of the racing Mods please delete this so BTW doesn't kill me? I didn't notice his thread and am afraid.....:D

Thanks!

Sightseek 01-01-2007 04:22 PM

I for one am thrilled to see the little guy back. Win or lose, he's my man! :cool: (Did you see Deputy Glitters worked out this weekend?)

my miss storm cat 01-01-2007 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
I for one am thrilled to see the little guy back. Win or lose, he's my man! :cool: (Did you see Deputy Glitters worked out this weekend?)

YES!!!!!

(Go Sparkles).:D

philcski 01-01-2007 07:15 PM

I'd bet a million dollars the Belmont Stakes winner has never made his next start on the Aqueduct Inner. Anybody wanna take my action??

ArlJim78 01-01-2007 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
I'd bet a million dollars the Belmont Stakes winner has never made his next start on the Aqueduct Inner. Anybody wanna take my action??

Not exactly the type of triumphant return you might expect, an allowance on the inner in January?:rolleyes:

blackthroatedwind 01-01-2007 07:26 PM

I'm not exactly sure there would be an enormous procession and turnout wherever he was to race. Gotta start somewhere and frankly he's a LONG way from proven to be an especially good horse. Perhaps he will be, and I hope so, but he's got a lot of proving to do on the racetrack.

SniperSB23 01-01-2007 08:07 PM

I'd actually think a win here would be pretty impressive. Based on his form last year he'd have no chance at this distance against the horses he will face. If he wins here it means he's moved forward speedwise from last year and would be a horse to reckon with this year as he gets more distance.

Sightseek 01-01-2007 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I'm not exactly sure there would be an enormous procession and turnout wherever he was to race. Gotta start somewhere and frankly he's a LONG way from proven to be an especially good horse. Perhaps he will be, and I hope so, but he's got a lot of proving to do on the racetrack.

That is only because I already mapped out my vacation days from work.

blackthroatedwind 01-01-2007 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
I'd actually think a win here would be pretty impressive. Based on his form last year he'd have no chance at this distance against the horses he will face. If he wins here it means he's moved forward speedwise from last year and would be a horse to reckon with this year as he gets more distance.

I've done some work on the race and the actual contenders are few. There's also some pace. Now, if Jazil was a genuine " Grade 1 horse ", whatever the hell that is, then he would dominate this crew. However, he has hardly proven his superiority, but he still is supposed to be a major factor here. While I still want to go through it some more there are only really two other possible winners on paper, assuming the race doesn't scratch down to nothing, and they are maybe Take the Bluff and definitely Admiral's Arch.

blackthroatedwind 01-01-2007 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
That is only because I already mapped out my vacation days from work.


Are you really heading down for this race? If so, make sure this time if you take the A Train you get a Far Rockaway train, and not a Lefferts Blvd, as the Rockaway trains go right to the track. Wouldn't want you to have to walk through that frightening neighborhood again.

SniperSB23 01-01-2007 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I've done some work on the race and the actual contenders are few. There's also some pace. Now, if Jazil was a genuine " Grade 1 horse ", whatever the hell that is, then he would dominate this crew. However, he has hardly proven his superiority, but he still is supposed to be a major factor here. While I still want to go through it some more there are only really two other possible winners on paper, assuming the race doesn't scratch down to nothing, and they are maybe Take the Bluff and definitely Admiral's Arch.

I must have overestimated Take the Bluff. I thought he was actually a pretty good horse. Will be a good test then to see if he can ever do anything at 8.5 - 9 furlongs. He's less a closer and more a plodder (which I'll probably get smacked for saying). He's less dependant on pace than your typical closer and really just needs a lot of ground so that he can win going at a 24-25 second clip the whole way.

Danzig 01-01-2007 08:28 PM

i don't think it's asking TOO much that jazil turn out better than, oh say...sarava?!

ceejay 01-01-2007 08:30 PM

To me this will be a race to pass or play against Jazil. The race sets up well for him with plenty of pace to run at, but a horse with his credentials is obviously being pointed to bigger races and will be underlaid on Friday in a "throwaway" race.

Sightseek 01-01-2007 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ceejay
To me this will be a race to pass or play against Jazil. The race sets up well for him with plenty of pace to run at, but a horse with his credentials is obviously being pointed to bigger races and will be underlaid on Friday in a "throwaway" race.

McLaughlin told the Blood-Horse this serves as a prep for either the StrubG2 on February 3 or the Gulfstream Park HG2 March 3. If for whatever reason Invasor can not make the DWC Jazil will go, but Shadwell won't be sending both.

blackthroatedwind 01-01-2007 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
I must have overestimated Take the Bluff. I thought he was actually a pretty good horse.

I overestimated him off his off-the-turf win the day before the Belmont ( which is a good reminder to always take off-the-turf races with a grain of salt ) and his form has been decidely mediocre since. He can win Friday the my guess is Admiral's Arch is the likeliest upsetter if Jazil loses.

Betting against Jazil is one of those " I'm a wiseguy " situations. He certainly isn't a great bet in this situation but he can more certainly win. I think a real wiseguy doesn't underestimate him.

philcski 01-01-2007 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I overestimated him off his off-the-turf win the day before the Belmont ( which is a good reminder to always take off-the-turf races with a grain of salt ) and his form has been decidely mediocre since. He can win Friday the my guess is Admiral's Arch is the likeliest upsetter if Jazil loses.

Betting against Jazil is one of those " I'm a wiseguy " situations. He certainly isn't a great bet in this situation but he can more certainly win. I think a real wiseguy doesn't underestimate him.

My morning line is 8/5. I think he's up against it on the inner the way it's been playing but he does have a win over the strip, McLaughlin is certainly quality off the layoff, and the field is pretty weak.

I think the wiseguys might actually UNDERbet him in this situation.

Sightseek 01-05-2007 08:34 AM

Would some please post how the little guy does...I hate being at work. :mad:

blackthroatedwind 01-05-2007 08:37 AM

He trailed early.

eurobounce 01-05-2007 08:37 AM

M/L 2/5 is unreal. Looks as the pick 3 is the play

Sightseek 01-05-2007 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
He trailed early.

I know you think he totally sucks, but would you be kind enough in humoring me if you see the race?

Linny 01-05-2007 08:52 AM

He will trail early, Throat is right on that one.
Sightseek, are you in the Alb/Sar area? I might be going to AQU a few more times over the winter, let me know if you want to tag along.

Sightseek 01-05-2007 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny
He will trail early, Throat is right on that one.
Sightseek, are you in the Alb/Sar area? I might be going to AQU a few more times over the winter, let me know if you want to tag along.

Yes and thanks, we're probably not going down until the Wood Memorial though.

Gander 01-05-2007 09:15 AM

He will win and pay $2.80. The late double will pay $8 at most.

blackthroatedwind 01-05-2007 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
I know you think he totally sucks, but would you be kind enough in humoring me if you see the race?

I don't think he totally sucks, I like him, he just has to run faster to compete with top horses this year. It's certainly possible.

Sightseek 01-05-2007 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I don't think he totally sucks, I like him, he just has to run faster to compete with top horses this year. It's certainly possible.

I don't know how much it's worth, but his workouts seem to be quicker this year. Maybe the time off allowed him to develop a bit.

blackthroatedwind 01-05-2007 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
I don't know how much it's worth, but his workouts seem to be quicker this year. Maybe the time off allowed him to develop a bit.


One would certainly hope so.

He will be tough today.

Buffymommy 01-05-2007 09:53 AM

Take The Bluff! Jazil needs more distance, I am not bashing him. I like the little horsie. I hope Jazil wins lots more races to earn some respect, but I say TTB wins this one.

Gander 01-05-2007 10:09 AM

Is Jazil "by definition the fastest horse in the race?"

Rudeboyelvis 01-05-2007 10:23 AM

Don't see him winning here, I'd like to see a little more distance for him against this pace...although he broke his maiden over the same track at the same distance. That said, I like him keyed under the 1,2,3,6 - if it's even worth betting.

Gander 01-05-2007 10:39 AM

This distance is perfect for him and these arent very good horses.

If this race was any farther, it may be harder for him to win. The pace would be slower. People confuse closers with having more success the farther they go. Thats not right at all. Jazil will get a nice pace to run into and Jara obviously knows this horse. While he may be better next time out, he is good enough on talent alone to run these down and by open lengths.

This is a very weak field for his return.

Linny 01-05-2007 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I just threw up in my mouth a little. Tell me I don't have to look at his mug all day again today.

No

blackthroatedwind 01-05-2007 10:51 AM

City Attraction and Shmoo are scratched. The City Attraction scratch really hurts Jazil and moves up Take the Bluff.

SniperSB23 01-05-2007 02:47 PM

What are the odds for Jazil?

Buffymommy 01-05-2007 02:47 PM

Anyone watching the race? I am at work and cannot watch. How does Jazil look? Does he look like he has filled out or anything?

Sightseek 01-05-2007 02:47 PM

The suspense is killing me.


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