In 2007 I will be a better capper by:
 

OK, so everyone beared theri souls with how they did this last year. Now let's look at the year ahead and think about what we can do to do better. I'm not talking about becoming a punter, but what are a few things that we can do to make 2007 a better year than last year.

For me, here's what I need to do:

1. Stop betting every damn race just to have some action. I do better when I skip some races not even if I have a key race, I just do better taking my time. Maybe I have a 40 minute brain living in a 30 MTP world, but it just seems to take pressure off.

2. I'm much better on doubles and pick 3's that exactas and tri's but sometimes I haven't capped enough ahead, so CAP ahead!

3. Money management: Stop chasing loosing money with more.

4. Limit wagering on Derby and BC Days. I never do well yet I come up to them with some crazy idea I'll make a killing and bet that way.

Well that's mine. I'm gonna see if I can follows these four things and I know I'll do better. Oh yea. thanks to some of you...get an account that gives rebates, now I get none which would have put $700 in my pocket this last year. HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Howz About You??

Two things for the upcomoing year:
1. Don't look at the tote board before I bet. If I like a horse and he is 3-2 so be it. I have a habit of going back into the form and try to convince myself that I like the other horse at 8-1 better. So instead of cashing a small ticket, well you know how the rest goes.
2. Bet to win more. I like to usually play exactas and triples, but I am starting to get tired of liking a horse and have him win and running third and fourth with the underneath horses in exotics.

Concentrate on big days and certain meets.

Bet no more than 3 races from any particular track, minus Belmont summer and Saratoga.

Bet hard on big days, Derby, Preak, Bel....Do these things and you come out ahead. That's when the easy overlays occur. Selectivity is the key when dealing with a takeout tough game.

toss the sentimental bets when I know they are bad choices...

1. I will positively stop playing tracks outside of Kentucky, Louisiana, or Illinois -- with the exception of the occasional Gulfstream race. No more Calder shots. No more Belmont. No more Santa Anita. Far less Oaklawn....maybe no Oaklawn at all.

2. I will go deeper on Breeders' Cup day. This was the third straight year where I picked a good amount of winners, but didn't go in as heavily as I should have. Case in point: Hitting the tri in the Classic for $680 on a $12 ticket, but having Giacomo on the bottom of the tri along with Premium Tap, and knowing that with an extra $20 to throw into that bet, that I could have hit an 8K super with the same horses I played.

3. Only play the Derby with a group of friends. I played my first bet ever on the BC with friends, all pitching in on the late pick-4. It was awesome knowing that we could cover more as a mini-syndicate than alone. I will limit the Derby betting to the pick-4 involving the Derby and the trifecta or superfecta with a bet with a mini-syndicate of friends.

4. Focus more on Pick-X bets. I really only started playing them with any regularity this year. I used to bet just win bets and tris, but have had way too many "near-miss" tris and supers in the second half of this year to keep doing it. I don't have the money to dive into supers the way I need to, so I tend to key longer shots....in the wrong spot (ie i key them fourth and they run third, keying a 4K super). It's stupid wagering, and I will stick more to investing more money in multi-race wagers where I only have to pick winners instead of winners and who will clunk home third.....except in the Breeder's Cup. Exotics are on the table there still.

5. Watch every single race at Arlington this year and take way more notes than I need to. I watched them all last year, but didn't keep as detailed of notes as I had in years past with moving and the transition and all. It was my worst year betting Arlington in my history -- and I attribute it to my being lazy. I am usually completely on top of Arlington's meet (and made some monster scores in 2005, namely with my best buddy Courthouse :)), but slacked off this year and I paid for it. Focus my ass up and start making some money at Arlington again -- because it's there for the taking.

6. Really stop and enjoy what I'm watching. I only tend to really stop and proverbially "smell the roses" when I'm live at Arlington on a Saturday afternoon standing by the rail watching turf racing. It's then that I realize that there are incredible things happening at tracks every day and that there is more to it than MY betting interest in it. It is really an awesome sight to behold every day around the country. I need to remember that Saturday-afternoon feeling on a rainy Thursday afternoon at dirty simulcast facilities too.

Great thread idea -- thanks for making me take a bit here and think it out!

EDIT: oh yea, and this!

I think that should be everybody's mantra for 2007 and forever.

This is exactly the opposite of what people should be doing. I'm not being a smartass. This is the absolute wrong way of thinking.

Look at it this way.....if you just know heads is going to come up on the next coin flip would you still lay 3-1 on it happening?

so you're saying that people SHOULD be fishing for 8-1 shots when they REALLY think the 3-2 shot is going to win and then watching their 3-2 romp home without a single dollar on him?

i'm not sure if i'm misunderstanding YOU, or if you're misunderstaning MATH716 -- but I think the point was to like who you like and NOT trick yourself into fishing for the price -- knowing that that is stupid if you didn't originally think the horse was going to win.

I may be over extending what he is trying to say, or maybe he is saying it badly, but in theory there are horses one actually should bet as their second or even third choice at 8-1 over horses that may be their top choice at 3-2. Certainly one should ALWAYS pay attention to the tote board, and be looking at exacta probables, and at least attempting to find what they perceive as their best value. Look, most people's understanding of what the actual chances of each horse winning is poor, and the tote board is overall the likeliest best indicator of this, but any horse player should have a reasonable idea of what odds he or she is willing to take on any horse and thus play accordingly. If one does not like the odds on their selection there is an alternative other than taking a flyer on another horse....you can always sit that race out.

The odds board is a horseplayer's friend....not his or her enemy.

Yea, I think that's what the original post meant, and that's how I took it when I added it to the tail end of my post. That I need to stay disciplined at ALL times and not take a flyer on a horse that is not our first choice just because we don't like 3-2 on the horse we DO like.

That if we like that 3-2 horse, and aren't satisfied with the price for the win -- to start looking for creative ways to key that horse on top of exotics that will maximize the investment instead of just tossing that horse and taking another.

I think we're all on the same page, just saying it in different ways.

2 Things-
1) Concede that I suck at playing the big-time tracks. I need to go 'cap at night when I have friendly Mountaineer and their 5k claiming races. I'll watch the big-time horses and the stakes races for fanfare only.

2) Just in general- Horse bet more than go to the card room and play hold'em. I do a lot of both, but Hold'em I play a lot of due to the convenience factor involved. I consider myself to be a pretty good poker player, but too much luck is involved. The horses is my comfort zone. I gotta stick to what I'm truly good at.

Merry Xmas and Happy New Year guys. Hope they're both groovy.
-Pete

The first poster said " Don't look at the tote board before I bet " so that poster is suggesting to bet whomever one likes regardless of price. That's simply another recipe for losing.

One should be acutely aware of all odds and absolutely be ready to " take a flyer on a horse that is not our first choice " simply because of the oddsboard. A good horseplayer will cash more than his share of tickets with second, third or fourth choices played because of price.

Look at it this way, staying alive in multi-race bets relies on spreading, and the bigger scores will usually come when some big priced horse wins one of the legs and may well have been thrown in as a third or fourth choice. Perhaps in an individual race that horse's big odds would have been enticing enough for a win bet, especially if the odds on the horseplayer's other contendors were all theoretically too low.

There are many ways to win and not using an available asset only limits these chances.

This is about the only thing I do right at the track.

I find myself being pretty good at finding the price horse that gets the win or place by first capping out my top 3 or 4 horses and then looking to see how everyone else is betting them. It's actually structuring my bets for exactas and tris that I get burned. Too many times I look down on my notes to find that I had the horses, but didn't have them bet correctly (which is also in part from not wanting to invest a lot of money into my bet). This pretty much had me sticking to the W-P or WPS bet of the horse I liked best with the best odds...which is probably a pretty wimpy and unimaginitive way to do it. :)

I'm very compeitive and I think this carries onto my betting (which may be pretty stupid actually), it means more to me to beat the low odd favorite and occassionally miss one (or in those really sucky days, many) than to load up on the favorite.

the tote is the best and worst thing if you have an opinion regardless of the odds... you should make your play .for a horse thats getting bet first out..thats a pos sighn....and you should bet with that in mind but..i dont scare from beating the odds if i like a horse and hes 17-1..ill play him..

Aside from firsters, the bigger the price the more you should bet.

I guess I don't totally agree. We're interpreting the poster's "don't look at the tote board" differently. I'm not interpreting it as saying never look at the tote board and go with who you like regardless of the odds. I think it's the difference between:

1.) Being pretty sure the 3-2 shot should win and realizing you don't think the odds are fair to win and then structuring an exotic bet around that 3-2 key horse.

and

2.) Being pretty sure the 3-2 shot should win and realizing you don't think the odds are fair to win and then tossing the 3-2 shot out in favor of a horse that would pay $20 that you think has a small chance to win, just because you'd rather go down in flames with the 9-1 horse you don't like as much instead of the chalk just for the sake of saying you did.

I find the first to be rational, and the second to be plain stupid.

The point trying to be made (and you are missing) is what do you think the chances of the 3-2 and 9-1 shot are of winning. If you think the 3-2 shot's probably odds of winning is 35% and the 9-1 shot has an 11% chance of winning (3 x less likely) you are still better off playing the 9-1 shot. You should evaluate each horse in the race's likelyhood of winnning and compare vs the actual odds being offered on the horse. In the case of the 9-1 shot with an 11% chance of winning you should bet that horse every time and never bet the 3-2 horse (now if the 3-2 shot you predict would win the race 60% of the time then it is a good bet).

The odds board is a horseplayer's friend....not his or her enemy.

I understand what BTW is trying to say perfectly. If you like a horse the best who is 3/2 but see a horse who you not necessarily like better than your top choice but can see winning at around the 8/1 range, always bet more on the 8/1 shot. It might be painful if the 3/2 horse jogs home first and you think I could have cashed a ticket instead of throwing one on the ground, but in the long run the amount of money cashed on the occasional 8/1 shot winning will outweigh the amount on the 3/2 shot. You have to know what your doing and have logical reasoning behind supporting the 8/1 shot. Not just because he/she is 8/1 and you need that $18 payout to "get out".

I also understand what MATH716 is saying. I have changed my mind unwisely due to looking at the tote so many times. But I wasnt thinking rationally. I was thinking of what I need to get out or what a score I could make if I go with the greater priced horse. I guess somewhere inside me part of me convinced myself to bet a horse just because of the possible return.

In 2007 I will be a better capper by:

I am only betting one horse in 2007. His name is Speedjama, an allowance/claimer horse that hails from the John Terranova barn.
He has I think all his wins over the Aqu Inner track but he has run very well on the turf and would have won a turf sprint at Saratoga this past summer had Bejarano not taken him back and forced 7 wide with him.
I think he is sitting on a monster year.

I wont bet him every time he runs, only when I think his odds of winning are relatively united with his actual chances of winning.

When you see Speedjama, think of me Gander.

Merry Christmas everybody. Not sure when I will post again.

i'm not "missing" the point, i'm just talking about a 3-2 shot that i envision having more than a 35% chance of winning. when i'm talking about it, i'm thinking big favorites who SHOULD win, meaning that you decide there is more than a "regular" favorites chance of winning (35%-ish).

I am acutely aware of the odds-board vs. perceived likelihood of winning like you've described above. we're just talking about seeing a 3-2 favorite in a different way. if i like a 3-2 favorite generally i'm talking about a horse that i don't see likely losing, if i don't like him on paper it's still going to be obvious without looking at the board that he's a huge favorite -- at which point i know in advance that he's a huge underlay, so it becomes a moot point because i don't need to look at the odds-board and the this entire situation is avoided in the first place. get what i'm saying?

In 2007 I will be a better capper by -

Listening 99% of the time on here when the select few speak and not posting something stupid on that thread

Limiting my action to win bets and pick 3's, no more juice plays on a Thursday evening at Meadowlands Harness or Northfield

When I am at the track / simulcast facility pulling the reins in and just saying no when I need the action that I did not plan on playing

Most important for me - learning everything I can about track bias, form cycle, all those things that can help me in the long run say 10 - 15 years from now become a knowledgable horse player. Today I consider myself a danger, I think I know more then I actually know. However, I get a reality check like clockwork at the windows bringing me back to reality

Well,this is easy.Look at the pick 3 at Turfway tonite in races 9-11

$1 pick 3=$520

$1 win parlay=$912

The pick 3 was roughly $500 short.

So,just by not playing a dime at a track like this will mean you won't get ripped off as much,and that would make you get paid more when you are correct(you need to get paid correctly,and so you need to discipline yourself to stay away from a track like this.)Picking winners is one thing.Getting paid what you deserve can be elusive.The pick 3 on races 10-12 paid exactly what it should(about $100 more for the $1 pick 3 than the $1 win parlay.)Problem would appear to be the 9th race winner.

$1 pick 4 races 9-12=$2,059

$1 win parlay races 9-12=$2,645

The pick 4 was roughly $800-$1,000 short.

Well said.

--Dunbar

You have to be careful with intepreting that statement. That sounds like you would always bet more on 20-1 horses than on 3-1 horses. I'd only do that if I thought my edge was something like 6 -7 times larger on the 20-1 horses than on the 3-1 horses, which is going to occur very rarely.

I'm pretty sure you are talking about how much you would bet on one horse once you've decide you like THAT horse. I'd agree with that; it makes sense to bet more on a particular choice, the higher the odds. But as a rule, as I'm sure you know, bets on 20-1 horses should be a lot less than bets on 3-1 horses.

--Dunbar

No, I don't get what you're saying. You still have to look at the board to make sure the horse isn't going off at 2-5.

Also, you are stretching a lot to put words into the original poster's mouth.

--Dunbar

2007
 

1. continue to work on money management.
2Learn about thorograph sheets.
3In2006 I went to the track about 8 times. This year i will get out more. I always do better when I am there.

I'm pretty sure you are talking about how much you would bet on one horse once you've decide you like THAT horse

Yes I think thats exactly what he is saying. A great example of this is a horse I think both of us liked last week- Bishops Court Hill. I looked at the field the night before and glanced at the morning line odds. He was 6/1 and I thought that would be an excellent overlay if indeed he happened to go off at 6/1, or 5/1 or 7/1 range.

I wasnt playing that day but I was interested in watching this race. Bishop Court Hill opened as the favorite at 2/1 which surprised me. He hung aroung that price for a fairly long time in the betting, and eventually drifted up and went off at 7/2 and won.

Now 7/2 on a horse you think has a great chance to win isnt bad but I wouldnt consider that an overlay or even good value considering his poor form since his win in the Carter, which was on a sloppy track.

Had I bet the race I wouldnt have bet as much to win on him at 7/2 as I would 6/1. That probably would have been a $100 win bet for me but if he was 6 or 7/1 I would have probably doubled that bet.

My first horseracing resolution for the New Year is to never play tri-boxes again.
My 2nd is to play a few pick 3s and 4s. Probably haven't played a half dozen of these in my life, but everyone says they are the best of the exotics.
My 3rd is to keep my own counsel. Have this peculiar habit occasionally of looking at some else's picks and trying to beat them, even if I know they are good picks.

i always look at the tote board before betting. i tend to go over the form the evening before, and i absolutely refuse to bet a horse i chose as one to possibly bet if his odds are low. i might play him in an exotic. but then, i don't generally place just a win bet anyway. if you can't beat the fave, try to find a play underneath to include him with. but i also look over the entire card and try to identify those few absolute sure winners, as i can never forget that the fave only wins about a third of the time. that leaves a lot of vulnerable faves to bet against.
couple years ago at oaklawn, there was a huge bridgejumpers bet on a horse that had run in the tc earlier that year. everyone hammered him only to watch him finish fourth.
i also hit a nice pick three that day, with private emblem being one of my 'sure faves'. he won for fun that day.
i also plan to hit at least one super, as every one i've played i've had three of my four horses in the top four spots, and invariably the last of the four comes fifth.

i have played a couple tris only to see my picks finish one, two, and fourth.

Going the other way and going to play less pic 3's,4's and more win or double bets. I'm going to stay out of races that are part of 3's and 4's that I have no interest in EXCEPT BC day when I usually have an opinion anyway. AND no more races for 20K claiming or less. NONE

well at least that's the plan....

I love that last part. Me too. Never met a new year's resolution I couldn't break.

I've been working on a project for my track for several months. I need to finish it by the opening of Calder in April '07.

I'm looking hard at owner intent/profiling. Stats are widely available regarding trainer performance and "intent," but I've long postulated that successful (and unsuccessful) class moves can be correlated to owner at lower class levels, specificaly limited winner claiming races.

I have a good level of success betting races for claiming non-winners or limited winners from $10k to $25k. I've gotten through my work for 2005 and 2006 in terms of owner impact on performance in these class categories, especially with respect to class drops/raises and race timing (ie, 2nd race at current class after a lower class win 2 back).

The results so far are interesting and very useful. I'm busy working on 2004 now and gathering what I need for 2003.

Unfortunately, I'm missing 3 months of 2003 Calder PPs and charts. That's making it a bit tougher. If anyone has June-Aug 2003 Calder PPs or charts I'd be willing to pay for the package.

good luck in 2007. time flies.

I totally understand that the tote board is very important and can actually be used as a tool. The point that I was trying to make was, that if I look at a race and the horse I like is 3-2 don't go back into the form and try talk myself into a 8-1 shot that all of a sudden looks better. (because he is not 3-2) If I look at a race and the horse I like is 25-1, I don't go back into the form to try to beat him. So why should I do it if the horse is 3-2? I should try to be more creative with my betting and get the most out of the 3-2 shot as possible. Maybe I could single him in a pick 3 or 4. I usually do not bet them but maybe I should start. Most of you people seem like very educated horse players and most of you probably are at the track or OTB every weekend. These days if I get to the track once a month it is alot. So not betting the race is really not an option for me, just because I don't get the opportunity that much. Also I go with a very limited bankroll. So I mainly bet exoctics, mostly exacta's. That's were I feel I could make the most money. The easiest way for me to put it is, I should not try to hit a triple or a homerun every race by tossing or using the 3-2 shot underneath instead of using it as my key horse. If I like that much make a win bet or use him soley on top and be happy with a base hit. Take my small profit and look for another spot. I am tired of ripping up would coulda shoulda tickets and start cashing the ones I should have bet in the first place!

Merry X-mas & Happy New Year

basically, original poster explains it exactly how i've been trying to explain it. perhaps i've worded it poorly, but i've been saying the same thing that the original poster was. don't talk yourself out of the horse you think is going to win just because of the price...find creative ways (like i've been saying, using that horse as a key in exotics to cash in on it) to bet that horse instead of talking yourself out of it for the sake of not playing chalk.

I understand what you're saying but I disagree.

If you're willing to bet a horse at, say, 2-1 and it goes off at 3/2, you really do need to pass the race unless one of the other horses you believe can win is going off at odds significantly higher than your handicaped line.

You can use the Exacta pool to "validate" win odds and spot potential win pool overlays but you are far less likely to such a bet on a short priced hrse than you are for horses in the 6-1 to 10-1 range.

I think the best and only way to win wager is to bet your horse only when it is at some minimum level above what you think "fair" odds are. And as your horse's odds go up further relative to that minimum level, bet more.

If I think a horse's "fair odds" to win are 4-1, I would need 6-1 to wager $1X . If the same horse goes off at 8-1, I would wager $1.1, etc.

If you go to the track infrequently and recreationally and just want some action, just stay within your budget and enjoy the day. There is certainly nothing wrong with that and I still have those kind of days (ie, family day at the track, business lunch at the track, etc...)

But if you wager seriously, you have to be able to wait for the opportunities when your horse is going off at least at the minimum odds level you need to wager. And, more importantly, to increase your wager level when the odds are higher relative to that minimum.

More than how many winners someone catches, it's really about pressing your percieved advantage and bettting larger amounts when your selection is going off at increasingly higher odds.

just one man's opinion.

1. I need to bet only the turf because I'm above average I think in picking them.
2. Stop betting $1 to $5 on races just to watch them run.
3. When I think I have a chance to get a Big One go for it. I've had countless times where if I'd just thrown a little more money into the Kitty I'd be signing.
4. Listen to the wifey more often. I know I'm whipped but she's had some tips and I never listen as much as I should.