What does it take to make a living at punting?
 

Spyder’s recent thread (“Were you a winner or loser this year?”) has motivated me to quit my months of lurking and contribute to the conversation with this query: What does it take to make a living at punting?

It seems near impossible to get an accurate figure on the percentage of bettors who actually turn a large enough profit on which to live. I’d guess that those who do probably aren’t talking much about it in public forums. Alydar commented, on Spyder’s thread, that 95% of the players he knew did not win in the long run. This jives with what I’ve read in books and on the web (for what that’s worth), but I’d guess that even less, maybe 2%, actually make a decent living at gambling on horses.

Here are my thoughts on what is necessary to produce a viable income:
1) Enough time and discipline to treat it like a job. This means a full workday of such things as watching replays, updating your personal databases on whatever statistics work for you, handicapping the form or whatever you look at for past performances, selecting the best plays, and then going to the track or the turf club or a wagering site (plus, keeping accurate records of your money, afterwards).
2) Having the fortitude to sit out most of the races on a card (or cards) and wait for your selected play (I’ve heard this called having an “iron a$$”), and being able to pass on your selected play if the odds don’t reach your value line.
3) Being able to financially support yourself through those long periods of drought between the big hits that make all your dough for the year.
4) Maintaining a big stake and making huge bets. I remember reading about some self-proclaimed pro who said that he made six figures a year, but pushed nearly a million dollars through the windows to make it.

Personally, as much as I love the sport (okay, “monomaniacal” isn’t too strong a word), I’ve decided that treating my passion like a job would su¢k the very life out of it. If I break even at the end of the year, while having enjoyed some good times, I’m happy.

You need a strong leg and it helps to play in a dome, the ball travels farther when its warm and there is no wind. A good long distnace snapping center is also invaluable.

Stop brushing your teeth.

In my opinion, it takes a plan, a lot of energy, and the balls to back your opinions with real money.

I think the dome thing is more valuable than a strong leg. I imagine its gotta be hell trying to puntin Lambeau field or in New England in January.

Smarta$$es. But seriously, haven't you ever toyed with the idea of having your own "$50,000 year at the races?"

I played full time for years. It takes a severe dedication.

If I was happy my total income from all sources was $50,000 a year I would shoot myself in the face.

I agree with you, you must treat it like a job and, I admit it, I simply do not have the time and financial backing to go "all-in". I still love the game, with a passion, but I cannot afford to really make it with my current situation.

I do wish you the best of luck, Shadow, and hope it will work out for you...

ALostTexan

In regards to track handicappers, is this what most of them do for their full-time jobs? It seems most of the picks they give out are "safe" plays and not the horses that are at a good value. I'm guessing what they play at the window is much different?

I would take $50K/year from racetrack betting over $200,000/year in the working world any time.

I feel that the most important thing is where you are in your life. Do you have a mortgage, do you have children, do you have a car payment, etc etc. If you need $3k a month to pay your bills just to survive then maybe being a professional gambler isn't the best career choice.

Also, you have to treat anything that is your sole income as a full time job. If you are a professional gambler, it might mean that you only play a couple of races a week or it could mean an entire day wagering. It requires dedication, continuing education, in depth analysis and extreme patience.

I also feel that you need to set a weekly financial goal. Wether it is $500 or $2000 a week. Then one has to pick the races for that week that gives you the best chance of winning your weekly goal. Maybe it is a simple bet like an exacta box or just playing to win. An aquintance of mine is a professional horse player. He has zero debt and no one that relies on him for anything. He plays only exactas. He searches for exactas that pays $18 or higher. Then he will play a $200 exacta box. The cost of his ticket is $400 and if he hits then his gross payout is $1800.00. His net would be $1400.00. He has done just OK. Nothing really to brag about but he does it for 10 hours a day, 7 days a week.

totally agree with the first part...full time gambling is something I think should be for the person who does not have any dependants. That way if you go under the only person you hurt is yourself.

2 things you've gotta have IMO:

1. Lots of disposable income, and enough bankroll behind you so that you're not betting "scared"

2. A little bit of luck. I like the analogy of the so-called expert money managers who pick a stock or fund at the beginning of the year....then they have a monkey point to one (or someone throw a dart...whichever). The monkey or dart always finish respectably. This is not a science. The charts and speed figures and research are certainly valuable information, but at the end of the day, they've gotta run the races, and horses take bad steps & jockeys make bad choices.

Just my 2 cents & I agree with you that it would take the enjoyment out of it for me too...

Oh yeah...If you can kick it consistently to about the 10 yard line with a lot of hang time and no return, that helps. Don't go for the one yard line....it'll just bounce or roll into the end zone & frustrate you in the long run....and don't think you can count on the special teamers to swat it back out into the field of play....they almost always step on the line. And...it helps if you can still look cool in the "unibar" helmet....although I guess that's outlawed now...

You need to get paid well when you are correct.Getting paid well for it is very difficult.So,these exchanges(that allow players to cut the juice to a minimum)would be the way to go.If a horse pays $6.00 to win at the track,you need to find a way to get atleast $7.00 for it(minimum.)The best exchanges are in Europe.I play TVG,because I want to help pay the purse money etc.,and I am a horizontal player(and don't trust some of these rebate sites to pay when... for instance,last year, I won a $5800 on a pick 3 that I only put $16 into...that would have been a nightmare to get a rebate site to pay up.)Lets say you play just one bet a week.You isolate some horse that pays $6.00 to win at the track.You put 2K on it to win.If you play it at the track,you make 4k.If you play it at a rebate site,you get what? 4k + 7% of 2K bet($140)=$4,140 profit.This is not enough to make a living.To make a living,you need to find an exchange,and get that profit(for this 1 weekly bet) to the 5k range.That means getting your $2 payoff to $7(atleast) while others get $6.00.

Profit at track=$4,000

Profit at rebate site=$4,140

Profit at an exchange(if you get a $7 payoff on a track 2-1 shot)=$5k

You need to get paid more(while taking the same risk of losing that somebody betting track odds takes.)

what do you do, design video games?
that avatar is very offensive
I'm surprised timmhasn't PM'ed you
I've though about it, but thought better of it

I think very few of them bet even a reasonably significant amount and almost all lose. You are making a mistake if you consider these people expert handicappers....in general.

It's about understanding how to win....and few people do.

I wouldn't bet without a rebate anymore. I bet the bare minimum to get BrisBet video, the rest with Pinnacle. I'm now dabbling with eHorseX, but you can't bet a lot so far.

The post about track handicappers giving "safe" picks brought something to mind. All you want is safe picks. I would rather have a day full of even money winning tickets in my pocket than one $50 winner and a whole bunch of losers. This is not a bragging rights game where whomever picked the longest winner of the day wins the prize. Doing it for a living is completely different.

Also, consider the DRF, Sheets, etc as part of what you are betting each day. That can be up to $100! Now beat those costs and the takeout. Do it regularly enough to cover your living bills and let me know how you do it.

-TF

I guess it depends on how many "a whole bunch" is, yes? I'd take one $50 winner and 24 losers every single day. This was about making a living, and you aren't going to do it betting even money shots.

Unless someone is buying the sheets or TG, there is no way you have to spend that much. I bet from home, and my only expense is for monthly comma delimited charts from BRIS, $76 per month. I don't pay for PPs as I do some consultant work and get them for free, but if I didn't, I could get unlimited PPs from TSN for $60 per month, or from HDW for around $100 I think.

...

You're offensive on a regular basis so you have no room to criticize anyone or anything else.

Have a nice day.

I'm offended that Luigi isn't getting some 'noggin from the Princess in that Avatar.

Make her the cheese in a spicy, Italian, Mario and Luigi sandwhich I say.

Poor Luigi....the dude always get overshadowed by Mario....he deserves getting his salami slurped on by the princess every know and than.

I'm sure you guys all agree.

yeah but that's me
I thought perhaps you had a little more class
:cool:

Yeah, every now and then... he deserves it. :cool:

Yeah my handle on this site exudes class. :p

HILARIOUS! LMAO!!! :D

I was kidding around, sorry if you took it the wrong way

Hey I thought you found Jesus during your sabbatical from this place. My mistake.

you mean Castanon? yeah I ran into him at Turfway, in Flo-town

So are they just paid by the track to give something to help guide the first-timers to the track? I notice and question the strangest things. :p

I actually thought you were referring to random newspaper handicappers. To be perfectly honest I don't pay attention to any of them.

Well them too.

Shadowroll After my most recent post, it is with some trepidation that I again wade into these waters, but I have an solid opinion here and posess a thick skin. You seemed sincere with your second post, so here goes. I would recommend a two pronged approach, one geographical, the other pragmatic.

My two cents says, playing the major tracks on either coast would quickly end your quest. The intrarace, vertical plays would be few and far between and heavily taxed*, and the horizontal bets ( pick threes, fours etc.) would prove too expensive. That is, no matter what you spent, you would be a small fish in a very big pool. Logic dictates a move to the midwest!

Welcome to the land of Churchill Downs, Arlington Park, Keeneland, Oaklawn and the Fairgrounds. This arena contains contentious full fields, at least fifty trainers with twenty year careers, excellent main tracks and challenging turf configurations. A year round playground brimming with opportunity and mostly void of the big money wiseguys, whose capital is an ongoing, distinct threat to your bankroll. Case closed.

Practicality requires selecting a pool and the pick four is an easy decision. I would guess the average $1 pick four for these tracks approaches $3,000.

When I posted my earnings the other day, a few forumites, who do not know me from Adam, were flabbergasted and disputed my claims. None, did the five minutes or so of research, that would have convinced them that my claims were valid. The fact that the bets were all posted on a nationwide forum did little to sway their opinion. They did not take into account, in fact a few strongly disputed, that I am a damn good capper. But the point here is ; the math eluded them.

For instance, assume you bet forty pick 4's each year, at a cost of fifty bucks apiece. Two grand. Further agree to spend a few days 'cappin these wagers improving your skills, working on your weaknesses etc. Next assume a ticket structured as (4 x 2 x 3 x 2 ) and you, choose the combinations.

Assuming eight horse fields a novice capper, a group which almost of the naysayers fell into, empirically, should hit the pick 4 about ten percent of the time. That is, 4096 combinations and you have covered 48 of them.

The cash outlay is two grand. A pathetic one win a year hit rate, returns on average $3,000. Two winning pick four tickets yields $6,000. A ten percent hit rate, four winning pick four tickets nets some $12,000. You get the picture!

Personally I have no problem with the discipline angle; ninety some percent of my wagers is on pick 4's, all posted. The challenge is working on your game everyday, being disciplined, having a modicum of talent and realizing there is always someone who knows something that will help you down the road. It is a challenging, ever changing hobby for me, but beware ; I get better everyday. Hope this helps. BBB

*For instance, a trifecta or vertical bet is taxed each race, whereas a pick four is taxed once for the sequence!

You can also lie.

I think you're on the right track that those are good tracks to play, but I really doubt the average $1 P4 pays $3000. First off, the median payoff is more meaningful than the average, since a few big payoffs totally distort the average. I guarantee you the median payoff is nowhere near that high. As for big fields, of those tracks you mention, Arlington only gets full fields for grass and Illinois bred Mdns and SNW1X. The rest of their main track is a diet of 6 horse fields.

Is that your excuse for Mach Ride? :p