Top 25 Most Overrated Performances of '06
 

I posted this at one other place, thought I'd post it here as well...it might lead to some interesting discussions.

This is always a very tricky list. I tend to overlook slow performances in bad Grade 1 races, and focus primarily on horses who ran VERY fast with once-in-a-lifetime trips and circumstances.

In other words, horses like Seek Gold and Sultra didn't make the top 20---for their pathetic Grade 1 wins in time so slow, you could have timed the race with an hour glass or a sundial. Horses who win the coveted Grade 1's that way, (Lemons Forever) will however, get moved up.

Here are my rankings......


#1 Blue Grass Stakes- Sinister Minister.

*Sinister Minsiter didn't have the best of starts, and ran off early, setting sizzling fractions....however, he did so on a very strong inside speed track that been producing wire-to-wire winners with preposterously large margins of victory all week long. On that Wednesday at KEE, you had a 9.5 length wire-to-wire winner, and a 7.5 length wire-to-wire winner. On Thursday at KEE, you had a horse win wire-to-wire by 11.75 lengths. On Friday at KEE, you had a horse win by 17 LENGTHS wire-to-wire, and another win by 14 lengths wire-to-wire. Sinister Minister's double digit tour-de-force in the Bluegrass, made him the fourth winner in the last three days, to win by double digit lengths while going wire-to-wire! And YO!!!!...5 of the 6 two-turn dirt races run that week have been won in wire-to-wire fashion. Two by longshots.

#2 Arlington Million- The Tin Man

* America's most important Turf race not run on Breeders Cup day was won in theft fashion. It featured an INSANELY slow early pace and almost no passing at all. Perhaps, a less popular, and less likeable horse, wouldn't have been heaped with praise for such a victory. However, the California horse racing radio shows were flooded with callers who took strong offense to The Tin Man's win being criticized.

#3 Kentucky Oaks- Lemons Forever

* While it can be argued that horses like Sultra and Seek Gold were even less deserving Grade 1 winners than this talentless plodder, she did win the most important Grade 1 race in the land for 3-year-old fillies, and deserves this ranking for the wildly circmustance aided way she won it. Aided by an INSANELY hot pace, and a dead-rail track, she looped the field from 14th and last place---a field that was badly fractured.

#4 Goodwood Handicap- Lava Man

* Over the same wildly speed biased race track that yielded the best Beyer figure of the year (Bordonaro's 119 in wire-to-wire style) Lava Man was allowed an uncontested lead through soft early fractions. In what should have been a massacre with a sky high Beyer, Lava Man manged only a 109 figure, and ran absoltuely no better than 3rd place finisher Giacomo did against the circumstances.

#5 Street Sense- Breeders Cup Juvie

* While it was a sight to see---and it can't be easy to knock a double digit Breeders Cup Juvie winner who ran BY FAR a record Beyer figure in that race---the simple fact is that this performance was a circumstancial fluke that will not be repeated anytime soon. In a classic Churchill Downs collapse race (ala Seek Gold, Giacomo, and Lemons Forever) the horses who raced dead last and 2nd to last early on in the Juvie, ended up first and 2nd. The rest of the field BADLY fractured. However, not only was it a dream setup and dream pace scenerio---he also got a sensational rail-skimming ride over a track where the rail path was probably preffered. He also broke from post position #1, that post produced 4-of the-5 dirt winners on Breeders Cup day...the only loser recorded a lifetime top Beyer figure in defeat.

#6. Master Commander- Meadowlands Cup

#7. Jazil- Belmont Stakes

#8. Brother Derek- Santa Anita Derby

#9. Dubai Escapade- Ballerina Handicap

#10. Fleet Indian- Personal Ensign

#11. Henny Hughes- King's Bishop

#12. Aragorn- Eddie Reed

#13. Fabulous Strike- Mountaineer Stake

#14. Brother Derek- San Rafeal

#15. Circular Quay- Hopeful Stakes

#16. Pine Island- Gazelle

#17. Sun King- 2nd place Whitney Stakes

#18. Anew- True North Handicap

#19. Magna Graduate- Queen's County Hanidcap

#20. Bernardini- Jockey Club Gold Cup

#21. Seek Gold- Stephen Foster

#22. Likely- Laffeyette Stakes

#23. Stormello- Hollywood Futurity

#24. Sultra- Frizette Stakes

#25. Lawerence The Roman- Damon Runyon Stakes

The inclusion of Sun King was uncalled for.

Yeah, that signature is interesting. Jesus, im thankful I missed the thread its from.

Actually, Drugs... pretty conclusive list. I cant really add any to it.

I think Brother Derek is pretty damn nice horse actually.

However, his wins in both the San Rafeal and the Santa Anita Derby came uncontested on a comfortable lead, through very moderate fractions. Both wins were earned with textbook dream trips.

Brother Derek was made the morning line favorite for the Derby, pretty much off the basis of those two perfect trip wins.

BD is a pretty good horse as it is....however, when he is allowed an easy early lead through moderate fractions...he becomes a VERY good horse.

I would love to own any one of those horses on that list!

I would say a case could be made that Brother Derek's KY Derby was the most wildly overrated performance by a losing horse this year. His wide trip was every phony wise guy's trip of the year causing people to inflate his chances in the Preakness which wasn't going to set up well for him even if he wasn't eliminated early in the race.

Was Discreet Cat's win at Saratoga going to be 25th so you snuck Sun King in just to keep him off the list?

what no one wonder lady ann l ..totally fell into that gr 1..probebly should be no 1

Discreet Cat's win against a bunch of nobodys got all the Bernardini haters excited that Bernie would go down.

You could throw in ANY race at Delaware Park at any class level.

Stopped reading when I got to your #2.

--Dunbar

Top 3yo horses from the last two crops, such as Barbaro, Afleet Alex, Bellamy Road, and High Limit all won their debuts at Delaware Park, as 2yo's.

But, I know what you're saying CJ....just pointing out that they have had a few very impressive debut winners lately.

It's Sutra....

Id add Electrocutionist's Dubai race to the list as well....

I agree....he should have made it first.

I have as much respect for The Tin Man as a horse as I do any horse in racing.

However, anyone with even a basic understanding of horse racing knows that his win in the Arlington Million was VERY circumstance aided. It was a total Merry-go-round race through hilariously slow fractions.

It was an absolute theft of America's #1 Turf race not run on Breeders Cup day....and if that race wasn't won by a horse who is as incredible as The Tin Man is, NO ONE that is competent would have ever taken it seriously.

Popular horse, awesome horse, I'm a big fan of his...but his Arlington Million win was simply a theft, with a one-in-a-lifetime trip.

i think seek golds win is too far down on the list. i think the tin man shouldn't have been included. that race is what it is. a slow front runner deserves no more grief than a late closer who had a ton of pace to run at.
i think including pine island is in bad taste.

1. Very impressive.

2. You show up, you run, you win, you've earned it. Period. There was no law at Keeneland saying you couldn't take on SinMin early. Same for Hollywood and Lava Man.

3. In my mind, the only arguably overrated graded race winners ran in off-the-turf races.

She's so bad....I don't even want to know her name!

and poor anew...bad enough he has to lose his junk, and now he's on that list.

I know---I might have put Sun King on this list simply to annoy you.

However...

In the Whitney, he came within a head of beating Invasor...and that was a VERY misleading result...but you already know that, because you're sharp.

Invasor made a bold and totally pre-mature move in that race, Jara sent him inside of Flower Alley just prior to about the 3/4 pole, a move that clearly suggested he thought that he would be ensured of victory if he could simply put Flower Alley away. He wasn't much worried about anyone else.

Invasor was hooked up with Flower Alley for almost five furlongs in that race, very impressively put him away with complete authority at the 1/8th pole, and still had enough left to fight off a DREAM TRIP Sun King. Who could not get passed a very softened up Invasor.

[quote=The Indomitable DrugS]I posted this at one other place, thought I'd post it here as well...it might lead to some interesting discussions.

This is always a very tricky list. I tend to overlook slow performances in bad Grade 1 races, and focus primarily on horses who ran VERY fast with once-in-a-lifetime trips and circumstances.

In other words, horses like Seek Gold and Sultra didn't make the top 20---for their pathetic Grade 1 wins in time so slow, you could have timed the race with an hour glass or a sundial. Horses who win the coveted Grade 1's that way, (Lemons Forever) will however, get moved up.

Here are my rankings......


#1 Blue Grass Stakes- Sinister Minister. AGREE, HOWEVER A LOT OF PEOPLE SAW THROUGH IT

*Sinister Minsiter didn't have the best of starts, and ran off early, setting sizzling fractions....however, he did so on a very strong inside speed track that been producing wire-to-wire winners with preposterously large margins of victory all week long. On that Wednesday at KEE, you had a 9.5 length wire-to-wire winner, and a 7.5 length wire-to-wire winner. On Thursday at KEE, you had a horse win wire-to-wire by 11.75 lengths. On Friday at KEE, you had a horse win by 17 LENGTHS wire-to-wire, and another win by 14 lengths wire-to-wire. Sinister Minister's double digit tour-de-force in the Bluegrass, made him the fourth winner in the last three days, to win by double digit lengths while going wire-to-wire! And YO!!!!...5 of the 6 two-turn dirt races run that week have been won in wire-to-wire fashion. Two by longshots.

#2 Arlington Million- The Tin Man I BLAME THE JOCKEYS, NOT THE HORSE HERE

* America's most important Turf race not run on Breeders Cup day was won in theft fashion. It featured an INSANELY slow early pace and almost no passing at all. Perhaps, a less popular, and less likeable horse, wouldn't have been heaped with praise for such a victory. However, the California horse racing radio shows were flooded with callers who took strong offense to The Tin Man's win being criticized.

#3 Kentucky Oaks- Lemons Forever LUCKY? YES. OVERRATED? NO.

* While it can be argued that horses like Sultra and Seek Gold were even less deserving Grade 1 winners than this talentless plodder, she did win the most important Grade 1 race in the land for 3-year-old fillies, and deserves this ranking for the wildly circmustance aided way she won it. Aided by an INSANELY hot pace, and a dead-rail track, she looped the field from 14th and last place---a field that was badly fractured.

#4 Goodwood Handicap- Lava Man AGREE

* Over the same wildly speed biased race track that yielded the best Beyer figure of the year (Bordonaro's 119 in wire-to-wire style) Lava Man was allowed an uncontested lead through soft early fractions. In what should have been a massacre with a sky high Beyer, Lava Man manged only a 109 figure, and ran absoltuely no better than 3rd place finisher Giacomo did against the circumstances.

#5 Street Sense- Breeders Cup Juvie A GOOD WIN? YES. OVERRATED? YES.

* While it was a sight to see---and it can't be easy to knock a double digit Breeders Cup Juvie winner who ran BY FAR a record Beyer figure in that race---the simple fact is that this performance was a circumstancial fluke that will not be repeated anytime soon. In a classic Churchill Downs collapse race (ala Seek Gold, Giacomo, and Lemons Forever) the horses who raced dead last and 2nd to last early on in the Juvie, ended up first and 2nd. The rest of the field BADLY fractured. However, not only was it a dream setup and dream pace scenerio---he also got a sensational rail-skimming ride over a track where the rail path was probably preffered. He also broke from post position #1, that post produced 4-of the-5 dirt winners on Breeders Cup day...the only loser recorded a lifetime top Beyer figure in defeat.

#6. Master Commander- Meadowlands Cup DON'T KNOW

#7. Jazil- Belmont Stakes DISAGREE. NOT A GREAT CLASSIC WINNER BUT NOT OVERRATED, EITHER

#8. Brother Derek- Santa Anita Derby AGREE THAT IT WAS OVERRATED

#9. Dubai Escapade- Ballerina Handicap DISAGREE, THE FIELD WAS TERRIBLE AND SHE DESTROYED IT

#10. Fleet Indian- Personal Ensign VERY MUCH AGREE I'D PUT THIS #1

#11. Henny Hughes- King's Bishop DISAGREE. NOTHING OVERRATED ABOUT THAT SPECIFIC RACE

#12. Aragorn- Eddie Reed AGREE

#13. Fabulous Strike- Mountaineer Stake ?? HE RAN 2ND AT A HUGE PRICE IN THE RIVA RIDGE. NOT FOLLOWING YOU HERE

#14. Brother Derek- San Rafeal CAN'T REMEMBER

#15. Circular Quay- Hopeful Stakes DEFINITELY AGREE

#16. Pine Island- Gazelle DISAGREE

#17. Sun King- 2nd place Whitney Stakes DEFINITELY DISAGREE

#18. Anew- True North Handicap DISAGREE

#19. Magna Graduate- Queen's County Hanidcap AGREE

#20. Bernardini- Jockey Club Gold Cup TOUGH CALL. A GOOD PERFORMANCE? YES. OVERRATED? YES.

#21. Seek Gold- Stephen Foster HOW WAS IT OVERRATED IF HE WAS LIKE 99-1?

#22. Likely- Laffeyette Stakes

#23. Stormello- Hollywood Futurity

#24. Sultra- Frizette Stakes THE WORST G1, EVER

#25. Lawerence The Roman- Damon Runyon Stakes WE'LL SEE. BIAS AIDED? YES. OVERRATED? WE'LL SEE IN HIS NEXT RACE.

Any NJ Bred allowance races at Meadowlands and Monmouth,
They are just way over inflated 5k to 10k claiming races.

Sadly I don't particularly disagree. Except you have to stop with the Flower Alley baloney. That horse was never really effective. It was the premature move by Jara into the fast pace that proved Invasor's mettle and not his brief interaction with the finished Flower Alley.

What the Whitney showed really showed was two things....Invasor is a very good horse and good horses can overcome bad riders.

J-breds have the best deal in racing.

He also got stuck behind a soft pace in the Woodward and still ran a good 3rd as the choice. Invasor was the best horse in America this year and SK ALMOST ran him down, perfect trip or not. I'd take SK in my barn in a heartbeat.

I'll throw any of Fleet Indian's races in there instead.

Why was he moved pre-mature into the fast pace?

Because his rider wanted to take it to Flower Alley....obviously thinking that Flower Alley was the only horse who could beat him going into that race.

Even though Flower Alley ran nine or ten lengths behind Invasor, I actually thought he ran better in that race than just about anyone--as, he had his hand forced by Invasor's premature move...

But yeah, Flower Alley's a stalking type, he wasn't taken "out of his game" as much by it as Invasor was.

Yes, the mediocre Jara rode Invasor poorly, but Flower Alley was completely ineffectual. I know we have had this argument a thousand times, and I will go watch the race again, but I think Flower Alley ran for about two furlongs at most.

I know we had this argument before the Woodward, where you defended Flower Alley, and he ran like crap. Now, it may be fair that he regressed even farther for that race, but it certainly does nothing to defend his Whitney. Running a tad from the 5/8 pole to the 3/8 pole is basically meaningless.

I did say Invasor ran a MONSTER race in the Whitney...and was much more impressive than he looked on paper.

But yeah, I also thought FA ran better than his race looked on paper that day...and that opinion of mine was certainly not justified in subsequent results.

Interesting list. I agree with most of it but would have had Strong Pretender winning the Dwyer at #2. He ran a mile and a sixteenth at a slower pace than Jazil won the Belmont in despite dealing with 3.5 less furlongs AND one less turn. Yet somehow they gave him a higher Beyer. If 1:45.25 is a 109 Beyer I would have loved to have seen what sort of figure an actual quality horse could have put up that day.

The track was tremendously slow that day!!!

I believe statebred allowance horses went 7 furlongs in 1:27, or something absurdly slow like that, one race prior.

Tracks obviously don't stay the same speed all the time.

I still don't buy it. It was the single biggest Beyer adjustment of all time. 32 point adjustment! 1:45 for a one turn 8.5 furlong race wouldn't be a 109 if they were running on marshmallows. I think the way Bluegrass Cat trounced him in the Haskell pretty clearly established it as a BS 109. The rest of that field was Doc Cheney, Da Stoops (way past his best distance), Regent Spirit, Dontfearthereaper, and an already toasted Keyed Entry. Pathetic.

I'm not a big fan of that number either, though a desperate person could ultimately use the Super Derby to defend it, but in fairness it was an incredibly tricky day, and I think all figure makers struggled mightily with it.

Except, I guess, for Ragozin, who doesn't believe in split variants.

Bluegrass Cat's bias aided win in the Haskell almost made the list.

I believe the horse breaking from the extreme outside post won just about every race that day....JRV was able to give BGC a very sweet trip from it.

Prado, on the other hand, looked like he rode a pathetic race on the surface, but he was only trying so desperatley to get SC to the outside because he was smart enough to know where the much better footing seemed to be.

While, no one can rationally say that Bluegrass Cat wasn't the best horse in that race...his performance in victory wasn't nearly as good as many thought.

Still he beat Strong Pretender by more lengths in the Haskell than Strong Pretender beat Doc Cheney by in the Dwyer yet the Dwyer got a higher figure than the Haskell. I might have to move that one up to #1 on my list.

Doc Cheney had an absolute dream trip in the Dwyer and undoubtably ran to the absolute maximum of his ability in that race.

Didn't Strong Contender run back to that Beyer in his 2nd start after that race?

Another poster brought this up earlier....




Work on your reading comprehension.

Not sure what his Beyer was in the Super Derby but that one was inflated as well thanks to his previous high figure and Lawyer Ron being in a hammerlock yet supposedly running a lifetime best. That one would probably make my top 25 too. Fricken Louisborg ran third.

Prior to the Super Derby his figures were 72-94-87-96-109-92

That horse never ran a 109.