Saratoga Two A Day
 

Glutton for punishment so let’s do this again. Same format, mythical $2 win/place wager on my “best bet” and “best longshot” of each day.

Day 1
Best bet- Race 6 #6 Yarrow
Horse is carrying a lot of weight because a lot of the people I respect have landed here but you have to watch the replay of his last. Not really Manny’s fault but he was well placed behind a slow pace, then lost his place and found himself dead last turning for home with run, but nowhere to go. He had to wheel out and was the only one making up any ground in a race dominated up front. Adds blinkers and should be in a much better spot when the real running starts.

Longshot- Race 4 #4 Star Devine
On paper this horse has no shot against these at this distance. But sometimes Maker needs a start to work his magic and there has to be a reason why he keeps her routing. She spent her entire career sprinting and Maker wants to keep her going long. She should be all alone on the front as long as Irad lets her go and if the inner is kind to speed she might take these a long way.

Good luck!

Good luck this year, Dahoss. Interested to see the price on Star Devine. She could be the longest shot on the board but maybe Irad prevents that.

Looks like you are setting up to run the table.

Star Devine made an easy lead but she is not a router. Yarrow had a much better trip and won well, paying $8.80 to win and $4.20 to place

Meet Totals
$8 wagered
$13 returned

Day 2

Rain destroyed a good portion of what was a pretty good card. Treading lightly, although the dirt races that stayed intact are interesting.

Best bet: Race 9- #7 Unified Alliance
Goes first time for Morley after a game runner up finish last time. I think the 5 1/2 suits her a little better than the anticipated favorite and no reason she can't sit a good trip right behind leaders.

Longshot: Race 8- #5 Emerald Forest
Bit of a stab, but I want a price here, because I'm going to let Jacobson beat me until his horses show they are running better in NY and this one was only beaten a 1/2 length by Happy Farm last time. Goes first off the claim for the Kantermaci's who do a good job with limited stock and I can see this one sitting a good trip right off speed and making first run.

Right idea in the 8th, just took the wrong price. Unified Alliance went virtually wire to wire in the 7th paying $7.50 and $3.60.

Meet totals
$16 wagered
$24.10 returned

Day 3
Best bet: Race 6- #3 Kosuke
Bond barn had one run well yesterday so expect them to start heating up as they usually do here. This one has overachieved in first two and got a big scratch with the 4 coming out. I hope Jaime Torres is aggressive because maybe can make the front and take them all the way.

Longshot: Race 3- #8 No Deli
Ran like a horse who needed one first out. Made a good run around the turn, flattened a bit but that can be expected behind who I think Is a good horse. Expect a much improved effort here

You might be on to something about the Bond barn getting hot. 45/1 horse almost took that 3rd race.

There are no moral wins in gambling but I felt good about my picks yesterday despite neither winning. The Bond barn is awake, with as Moses mentioning his longshot first timer just missing in the 3rd, where my pick No Deli ran a much improved race, finishing 5th, but losing by less than a length in a blanket finish. Kosuke made the front, but was no match and finished 3rd.

Meet totals
$24 wagered
$24.10 returned

Day 4

Skull buster of a card, made even more difficult with the track.

Best bet: Race 6- #7 Dreamwithinadream
I think Hiles is very underrated as a trainer and IMO he came here on a mission. I know he was well beaten in his early races but look at who he was facing. There are no Kingsbarns in here. In fact, outside of Ringside who seemed like he was turf meant, no one has much dirt form. He ran much improved last time and I think he’s best here.

Longshot: Race 2- #1 Handle the Truth
Major stab here. It feels like there is some speed in here with the 3 and 5 and I think the 4 and 7 will be close. Her trainer Kerry Metivier doesn’t win much, but hes always one of the first trainers on the grounds since he lives local and always seems to pop with a horse at the meet. Her best fits here and I’m hoping she can pick them up late

Couldn't help but revisit this comment in my mind watching the 2nd - hope you caught the tri.

Pretty sure Dreamwithinadream is still running. Handle the Truth was 3rd, albeit a well beaten 3rd at 42-1.

Meet totals
$32 wagered
$24.10 returned

Day 5

Best bet: Race 7- #6 Golden Rocket
This overachiever came back last time with a nice race against stakes horses. She got a great ride that day and while she beat Runaway Rumour, that one did not look good the last 1/8. Even so, she won here last year and should get some pace to run at.

Longshot: Race 9- #1 Miss Domina
Should be a fair pace here, would like to see Jose drop back from the outside draw and make one run. She appears to be working well time wise since she's been here and is fresh.

Golden Rocket got a nice ride by Jose Gomez but was ultimately not good enough finishing 4th. Miss Domina was just a bad pick.

Meet totals
$40 wagered
$24.10 returned

Day 6

Best bet: Race 3- #5 Highly Flammable
Race lost a little bit of its speed with the scratches but still should have plenty with the 6 and 8. I think Highly Flammable figures to drop into a nice trip behind the speed and will get first run. Was wide last out on a day when it seems like the rail was very strong.

Longshot: Race 4- #1 Mariah’s Fortune
This filly is 2 for 2 here and is not a turf horse. Gets back to dirt, could fall into a good spot inside behind the speed and thus is more of a play against some of the others who I don’t think are very good.

No time today but

Best bet: Race 6- #3 C Falls

Longshot: Race 7- #2 Big Night Out

Linda Rice wasn't she supposed to be suspended like when Obama was in office?

She's incredible.

Highly Flammable was an easy winner paying much less than I hoped at $5.20 and $3. Mariah's Fortune was sent hard for some reason and had little left late

C Falls was awful in a Linda Rice "if this doesn't prove what I'm doing, nothing will" race and Big Night Out was 4th.

Meet totals
$56 wagered
$32.30 returned

Day 8

Best bet: Race 8- #4 Scramble
This one just missed here last September in his debut against future stakes winner General Jim. His PP's are littered with stakes horses and he has held his own vs them. Last out against undefeated Chad Brown/Klaravich runner and future stakes winner Program Trading he was the first mover and was head to head with that rival around the turn while the eventual runner up waited and IMO sucked up 2nd. Can't fault Castellano as he was actually trying to win that race but with a more patient ride I think he can win here.

Longshot: Race 11- #8 Digital Future
This one is draw very well for a horse who resists kickback like he does. Won at this level two back, sharp work last week and should be in good range in the second flight

Going to be that kind of summer. I should stop betting now. How did I lose that photo?

Digital Future didn’t do much running in a strangely run and bet race. Scramble is one of those beats that takes you a little while to get over. Somehow went off at 14-1, got a good ride and trip. Had dead aim very late, got a nose (and the rest of his body) in front right before the wire and lost a dirty, filthy bob. Paid $12.60 to place.

Meet totals
$64 wagered
$44.90 returned

Day 9

Best bet: Race 3- #2 Fontanfredda
Bond barn has been knocking at the door and I think they break through here. Race shape is in this one’s favor as it appears there is a decent amount of speed in here. Gets Castellano who had choices in here and 5is filly has run well here in the past. Fresh, back at appropriate level and should be a fair price.

Longshot: Race 5- #8 Printrack
This one was my longshot before the scratches and scratches made this field of 8 now a field of 5, so I don’t know what his odds will be. I don’t normally like horses who bolt last time, but after bolting, he got engaged again and was really making up ground late to just miss a photo for 3rd and galloped past the rest of the field. Hopefully they figured out what went wrong because I think he’s dangerous here

Printrack was pretty bad. Fontanafredda lost a photo to one of the more ridiculous Linda Rice winners in at least a day and paid $4.30 to place

Meet totals
$72 wagered
$49.20 returned

Day 10

Best Bet: Race 7- #9 Outlaw Kid
Surprisingly, there is not much speed in in this race, which could be a stake. Outlaw Kid blitzed a field in June at Belmont in his return and then was part of a 3 way duel last time in a stake at Woodbine last time where the 1-2 finishers were last and second to last early. Drawn outside the only other horse who might show some speed and I think this one is very well spotted today for a big effort.

Longshot: Race 8- #3 Eros Girl
My idea here is that I'm against Sweet Mystery who very well could win but I don't think she's the same filly this year as she was last year. I'm hoping Keibar Coa just sits right off Amanda's Folly and lets her go around the turn and she can hold off the closers. Her Finger Lakes form is good, she makes her third start off the break and I like the confidence of running here

No dice on either.

Meet totals
$80 wagered
$49.20 returned

Day 11

Toughest card f the meet so far IMO

Best bet: Race 10- #1 Sousa Summer
Lots of speed signed up in here and IMO this is the best closer. He ran a huge race here last summer and as long as Rosario can’t work out a trip, I like this one a lot.

Longshot: Race 5- #2 Sail By
This is a stab but this is a filly who at one point was pretty talented. Makes second start for Antonacci, who has been firing here and I think this filly has the ability to take these a long way. Needs to find her best form again, but if she does she can win.

Damn we are up against each other in both races today. Hopefully we finish 1-2 in both. Good luck.

Sail By was somehow last early. Whatever. Sousa Summer got a flawless ride by Joel Rosario and got up late paying $9.30 and $4.40

Meet totals
$88 wagered
$62.90 returned

Day 12

Fantastic card and another skull buster.

Best bet: Race 7- #6 Kreesa
IMO the rail was the place to be on the widener this day because the rails had come down and Kreesa never came near the rail. Was hung out early and wide into the lane. He started picking up steam and had to alter and rallied to just miss 4th. Tons of speed signed up in here and I think this one is ready for a big effort.

Longshot: Race 2- #3 Fluid Situation
I picked this horse as a longshot last year in a listed stake based in his turf work and he sped off to a huge lead and folded. He then proceeded to win his next two on grass and showed it is he preferred surface. I don’t like the ML favorite at all, who I think has turned into a pumpkin and think Fluid Situation figures to sit in a nice spot right off the lead.

I really liked both of these horses and neither got it done. With the scratches, I figured Fluid Situation would be on the lead and he was rated, finishing a close 3rd. Kreesa got some pace, but the race actually held together pretty well and he finished 4th.

Meet totals
$96 wagered
$62.90 returned

Day 13

A little pressed for time but strong card today.

Best bet: Race 11- #8 Busy Morning
First start in 10 months but she has hinted at ability in the last when she romped breaking her maiden. Prat gets on and when Abreu has been live, hes been using him. I loved the works I watched and think she is ready for a big race from off the pace.

Long shot: Race 9- #3 Bolivie
I tried to make the #2 here to wire them and I just can't see it. I liked the way Bolivie picked up horses last time and I think she can take a step forward from that effort. She needs to find a trip here but I have question marks about a lot of these and I want to take a horse who I think is going to take a step forward

Both scratched with surface change

Best bet:- Race 10- #3 Hit Show
Longshot- Race 9- #9 New Ginya

Can’t get anything going. Hit Show broke slow and did no running. New Ginya was a bad pick

Meet totals
$104 wagered
$62.90 returned

Day 14

Best bet: Race 7- #4 Unanimous Consent
He started his career going 3 for 3 and looked like he might be pretty good. He had no shot behind a dawdling pace in the Penine Ridge, just missed a photo for 2nd in the VA Derby and got the wrong trip, wide throughout in the Hill Prince. He’s a horse that likes to be covered up and is not push button. It takes him awhile to get going, but when he does he sustains his really well. Picks up Irad and has been working here since May.

Longshot: Race 4- #5 Champagne Poetry
Chad Summers to anyone is good for about 5 lengths anyway, but it feels like Ray Handal takes great joy in claiming from him and having them run well. She’s been in way over her head for awhile now, back to right spot, blinkers back on and will be in good spot right off pacesetter

Wish I knew Katie would send hard into a 3 way speed duel. That’s always a recipe for success

Another 0 for 2. Time to turn it around

Meet totals
$112 wagered
$62.90 returned

Day 15

Best bet: Race 2- #6 Stavros
Former Baffert went off favored in his debut in what was a pretty strong race. Runnerup returned to win and 4th place horse came back to break maiden and win an allowance at Del Mar. Was flat at Los Al last time and comes cross country and lands in Brittany Russell's barn. She's had some success with the former Baffert's and I think he's faced much better than he's meeting here.

Longshot: Race 9- #5 Sarah Harper
I think she will be a fair price here and gets a major class relief. Her race two back wins this and she didn't get the best of rides last time. Rosario fit her well two back and I think we see her best here.

Good luck

Day 16

No time today

Best bet: Race 5- #5 Gem Mint Ten
Longshot: Race 9- #2 Virginia Joy

Day 17

Pressed for time again

Best bet: Race 9- #8 Big Hazel
Longshot: Race 8- #2 Bat Flip