Originally Posted by v j stauffer (Post 1170933)

I know he was odds on and much the best.

However, I thought Mike Smiths ride on TAIBA yesterday was very good.

He clearly knows that horse very well.

Have to think that sews up a 3yo Eclipse.

Agree?

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1170930)

I am waiting to see the Malibu v LaBrea figs. If you use 102 for taiba the filly fig is a few points too high. I am not sure you can use less than 102 for him, and even that is sort of low, given he won by 4+ lengths

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1170935)

Underwhelming performance in an underwhelming field.

Hard ridden throughout, struggled to match strides with the unheralded Straight No Chaser (who by the looks of his stride in the stretch--and subsequent wilt--could use a few months off), and did just enough to keep a bunch of midwest allowance horses and some old Santa Anita Derby also-rans from putting any pressure on him late.

My prediction for the rest of his career:

2nd in the Saudi Cup
last in the San Diego
retired

To be fair, that could be Country Grammer's 2023 campaign, too.

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1170938)

I do not doubt your prediction. It's hard to have imagined that he would still be winning G1 races on 12/26 after being rushed into the SA derby and Derby. I thought Country Grammer ran his best race in a long time. I bet against him and was dead wrong. Steve is happy Baffert didn't win six as there is a clause in the At the Races handbook that if you win 6, you automatically regain the Tuesday 1140 AM time slot on the show. I am joking, steve

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1170940)

Yeah, Taiba still winning Grade 1 races over some Mahoning Valley also-ran and two Derby trail disasters with airway issues.

Country Grammer looked good beating Stilleto Boy; puts him in the top 100 of horses that raced in 2022 for sure...

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1170934)

It comes down to what you think of the group he beat yesterday and your thoughts on epicenter. Jack Christopher not finishing the year didn't hurt Taiba's chances. What do you make of Forbidden Kingdom? They did everything they could to ruin Taiba and they didn't. Mandella did everything to make Forbidden Kingdom better and they didn't. Tale of two horses

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1170941)

He isn't great and the field was subpar that said Country Grammer ran well IMO

Originally Posted by v j stauffer (Post 1170943)

I thought Forbidden Kingdom ran very well.

Not sure Eclipse voters take field strength into account that much.

Three Grade 1's vs one for Epicenter makes me think Taiba will get the nod.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1170944)

No disputing he ran well (he won after all), but if you are proposing it was a much better effort than all his previous runner up performances behind better horses (Flightline) and old rivals he's never gotten the best of (Royal Ship), I don't particularly agree.

And if he did run an improved race, what does that mean in the greater scheme of things? I suppose he can win the Big Cap and/or Hollywood Gold Cup (but he likely won't cuz he'll probably go to the middle east).

If you think his Dubai World Cup was some sort of landmark performance, I'm pretty sure most of the also-rans in that race were coming from the middle east's answer to Mahoning Valley...

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1170935)

Underwhelming performance in an underwhelming field.

Hard ridden throughout, struggled to match strides with the unheralded Straight No Chaser (who by the looks of his stride in the stretch--and subsequent wilt--could use a few months off), and did just enough to keep a bunch of midwest allowance horses and some old Santa Anita Derby also-rans from putting any pressure on him late.

My prediction for the rest of his career:

2nd in the Saudi Cup
last in the San Diego
retired

To be fair, that could be Country Grammer's 2023 campaign, too.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1170950)

I give Taiba credit for still finishing fairly well after being taken a bit out of his game to chase the quick pace. The race was actually closer to a half a second faster than the La Brea ( if you correctly time the races ) but still, in relative terms, it was a bit underwhelming. Like Freddy, though, I give him a ton of credit for surviving the foolish early handling and think he's better than you do.

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1170952)

Cyberknife deserves at least some discussion in this. Isn’t he the 3yo champ free and clear if the Dirt Mile goes his way?

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1170952)

Cyberknife deserves at least some discussion in this. Isn’t he the 3yo champ free and clear if the Dirt Mile goes his way?

Originally Posted by v j stauffer (Post 1170954)

I'd write more on this subject, but I intentionally don't have a further opinion!:D

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1170957)

I would rather read a posted opinion, even if I thought it was silly vs. reading a cryptic post on how I can't read it.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1170959)

It's not cryptic. It's a shot at me for saying that I intentionally don't vote for the Eclipse awards. He's pathetic and desperate for attention.

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 1170960)

You'd think his scumbag move of chastising Bejarano on mic a few weeks back would have given him enough attention for awhile.

Or when he was going to fleece people out of $75 for his BS Breeders Cup trip notes....only to get called on it and make up some silly story about how it was all for charity. No bottom with Vic. Just when you think he's really oyt his foot in it, he has a way of surprising you.

This is what I always find so fascinating about Vic. No one cries victim more than him, but many times, he's the first to start things. If there was an eclipse for scumbag of the year, he'd win in a landslide every year.

I'm just glad he gives me so many opportunities to highlight what an awful person he is.

Cue the tome about how I don't know him (but everything I say is 100% true) and all he wants to do is talk racing with real fans. He's posted that so many times he should be able to just copy and paste it.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1170959)

It's not cryptic. It's a shot at me for saying that I intentionally don't vote for the Eclipse awards. He's pathetic and desperate for attention.

Originally Posted by Conrad (Post 1170962)

Too sensitive, you

;)

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1170946)

You should consider field strength when voting if you take your job seriously.

Epicenter's Travers was the best route run by a 3-year-old in '22

I think Taiba will win as well.

If you are using 106 for Taiba, Forbidden Kingdom did run well. I think FK ran his regular 96/7 and hasn't improved. Taiba hasn't sprinted since his mdn race. I don't think he ran his best sprint fig ever, not when meh fillies ran .24 slower an hour earlier. I have no problem with 106. It is a complex number to come up with as it hard to play it straight vs. the Labrea

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1170971)

Only on the internet could someone consider Freddy an expert of speed figure construction.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1170971)

Only on the internet could someone consider Freddy an expert of speed figure construction.

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1170973)

FTFY Freddy is an expert on Speed Figure Destruction

Originally Posted by King Glorious (Post 1170964)

Given your thoughts on the Malibu vs. LaBrea issue, if you don't mind, can you share your opinion, if you have one, on the Golden Rod vs. Kentucky Jockey Club a few weeks ago? Hoosier Filly won the filly race and went 1.31 seconds faster than Instant Coffer in the male race. They were the same distance, one race apart. Thanks in advance.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1170974)

Deconstruction?

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1170975)

I read the book and have known people who make figures in some cases for 20-plus years. I have a functional understanding of the process mostly thru being around people that are experts. I never bash them, yet I find them interesting to discuss because on complex days, there is a bit of artistry in the methodology, and the artistry, and I use that word respectfully, is where the expertise lies, not in the simple math process.

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1170975)

I read the book and have known people who make figures in some cases for 20-plus years. I have a functional understanding of the process mostly thru being around people that are experts. I never bash them, yet I find them interesting to discuss because on complex days, there is a bit of artistry in the methodology, and the artistry, and I use that word respectfully, is where the expertise lies, not in the simple math process.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1170977)

I find it interesting that he asks the same questions over and over again, for literally years on end. The numbers are different because that's what the figure maker decided to do. If you don't agree, try to take advantage of it at the windows. It's beyond ridiculous.

Originally Posted by King Glorious (Post 1170978)

Are you ok with that? I mean, I guess we have to be but does the artistry bother you at all? It sometimes feels to me more like manipulation. I get the whole idea behind projections and norms and what makes sense. But to me, the beauty of racing is that you never know what you may see or get from race to race. You may or may not know owner/trainer intentions for a horse in a given race. By that I mean, and this is admittedly an older concept than a current one given how horses are campaigned today, but I came up at a time when guys like Whittingham would use races instead of works to get their horses into the best shape to win their main targets. Preps were just that. So you'd see one of his horses show up and run and trying to assign a figure would be very difficult cause you couldn't just point to his norm and say what a figure should be. Or take a race like the Derby or the Belmont. How can we know what the norms are for the runners in those races when none of them have ever run under the race conditions?




When I look at a situation like the Golden Rod/KJC day, it frustrates me because, while I'm nowhere close to any expert, I have watched races for almost 40 years and I'd like to think that I've picked up some things even if by accident. She ran the faster race that day but without proof, they are telling me that the track changed and no, his race was faster. It just makes me wonder what the reasoning is. I guess in the end, it's just another way to try to take advantage of the other players if you feel like you have better information.

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 1170960)

You'd think his scumbag move of chastising Bejarano on mic a few weeks back would have given him enough attention for awhile.

Or when he was going to fleece people out of $75 for his BS Breeders Cup trip notes....only to get called on it and make up some silly story about how it was all for charity. No bottom with Vic. Just when you think he's really oyt his foot in it, he has a way of surprising you.

This is what I always find so fascinating about Vic. No one cries victim more than him, but many times, he's the first to start things. If there was an eclipse for scumbag of the year, he'd win in a landslide every year.

I'm just glad he gives me so many opportunities to highlight what an awful person he is.

Cue the tome about how I don't know him (but everything I say is 100% true) and all he wants to do is talk racing with real fans. He's posted that so many times he should be able to just copy and paste it.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1170961)

If you didn't know he was a real person, you would suspect he was a very clever bot that was created to show how successful pandering can be on the internet. It's kind of remarkable. Generally, though, he's a good litmus test for posters. Never a great sign when someone is fooled by his ridiculous behavior.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1170963)

This doesn't make any sense.