Saratoga Two a Day
 

Back for more torture. Fantastic card opening Day and continues through the weekend. I'll probably jinx myself but feeling good about the meet. Same format this year as years past. $2 mythical win/place wager on my "Best Bet" and "Best Longshot."

Day 1
Best Bet: Race 1- #7 Giocare
Noda barn was hot for a good portion of the Belmont meet. This horse ran well here last year and also ran well for Noda in his lone start in the barn late last year. No less than 4 horses need the lead here and I think this is the best closer. Get the meet off to a good start

Longshot: Race 4 #6 Snow's Island
This one had all kinds of trouble in multiple spots last time and a less than enthusiastic ride from Kendrick late against a repeat winner who is bound for stakes. It's worth watching the replay. 3rd off the break, and might get lost in the wagering.

Good luck!

Good longshot. If you watch the head-on , he also stumbled in the backstretch and almost went down.

Yeah that was a wild race. Part of me wonders if the loose horse had all the riders being extra cautious

Nice call on R4 :$:

Hope you had some win money. Of course I bet P3's and for sure didn't include Winter Sun

Great start, keep it rolling.

Thanks

Thanks, was a good day
Thanks man

Weird race by Giocare. Looked done in the stretch and then finished best of all to get third and galloped out in front. Snows Island got a fantastic ride by Kendrick seizing control at the top of the lane to win and pay $19.40 and $8.90, once again showing how valuable watching replays is.

Meet Totals
$8 Wagered
$28.30 Returned

Day 2
Such a tough card with very competitive races.
Best Bet: Race 3- #3 Whistlers Honor
Worth watching the replay of his last also. Was buried in the stretch and didn't get the most enthusiastic ride. I think Abreu is primed for a big meet and this horse should get him started. He has Biondi to run down.

Longshot: Race 6- #4 Danzigwiththestars
Feels like everyone in here could win. I'll take a shot with a horse who has shown an affinity for this course in the past and just missed last time against a few in here. SHould get the pace to run at and will get lost on the board.

Nice Start

Nice hits

Where is KONK? Nice....

thank you dahoss you are saving my butt so far at the spa!

nice job Hossy

Great job with these.

Great job. keep it going

Thanks guys! Blind squirrel...

Whistlers Honor showed that he can run when he's not totally buried the entire stretch and won, paying $7.60 and $4.80. Danzigwiththestars got a perfect inside/out trip by Saez to win, paying $16.20 and $7.90.

Meet totals
$16 wagered
$64.80 returned

Day 3
Another skull buster of a card.
Best bet: Race 3- #8 Saratoga Chrome
This one actually won a race here last year but was DQ'd. Switched to the Michelle Nevin barn this year, she broke through the gate first time off the break, before the start, showed some early foot and packed it in. I can excuse that effort. Last time, she was totally eliminated early and actually continued on pretty well, finishing not that far behind a few of these. Is due for some luck and should be a fair price. No real knocks against the Brown favorite but the horse that beat her last time isn't much and she doesn't seem like a horse who wants a battle.

Longshot: Race 9- #4 Analogy
Set the pace two back breaking his maiden, beating a repeat winner and found himself last early last time. He absolutely flew home the last 3/16th's to just miss and IMO ran much better than Credit Event who will be half the price. This is a tough race, but I feel like this one has some upside still. Is drawn well inside and if finds a trip can be right there.

Saratoga Chrome was very flat and never got involved. Analogy made a little run but was ultimately a non factor and the blinkers back off brought out the best of Credit Event. First of many humbling moments for the meet I'm sure.

Meet totals
$24 wagered
$64.80 returned

Day 4
I really struggled with this card.

Best bet: Race 9- #2 Night Time
I'm drawing a line through his last. I think they did not want to run early with Jackie's Warrior and took him back and maybe the lack of lasix hurt. He's run very well up here in the past, including losing by the smallest of noses to eventual BC Sprint winner Aloha West last summer. I trust in Rosario to work out a trip, lasix back on and should be a fair price.

Longshot: Race 8- #1 Sky and Sand
This is stab, but I keep coming back to his race two back. He ran huge that day and then was actually the favorite last time against a few in here. As good as he was two back, he was equally as bad last time. It just feels like there is an excuse that we might not know about. I can't imagine he'd be running here if he wasn't ready and might just be able to work out the perfect inside/out trip behind what should be a sharp pace. I'm just hoping his effort two back is the real him and we see that today.

Night Time made the front but tired midstretch. Strange race where a few failed to show up. Sky and Sand ran much better than his prior effort but was no match for Big Invasion who is scary good. Feel like Sky and Sand might have gotten 2nd if he had gotten clear but ultimately settled for 4th.

Meet totals
$32 wagered
$64.80 returned

To me the main track and both turf courses seem to be playing pretty fair, although closers might have a small advantage on the inner. That could very well have been situational though. I'm still waiting for speed to rule the inner like we often see for weeks at a time. Other than that, no real trends IMO. Gaffalione hasn't gotten off to a good start but he and his agent are too good for that to continue.

Day 5
Another day I had a hard time deciding which horses to pick.

Best bet: Race 4- #2 Sweet Franny Lu
Almost everyone I respect likes Instinctive in here and I totally get why. She clipped heels early and never really got going after that. her prior races on the grass were strong and she will likely be a deserving favorite. I'm more interested in another horse out of the same race, Sweet Franny Lu. She had the misfortune of running into a horse who was pulling up in front of her, eliminating all chance. Two back, she successfully rated and won going away, showing a new dimension. She's drawn well inside and should get first run. Hopefully Jose Gomez can work out a trip for her.

Longshot: Race 10- #7 Big Woo
Complete guess in here with a horse who was eased in his debut. A few things to consider....he took money that day. Was 5-1 in a field of 9 at Keeneland. Has since been gelded and returns with lasix. Slight drop but nothing crazy. The biggest thing for me is the 46 and change work over the Churchill turf in June. That sticks out to me and Jose Ortiz gets on board. I've taken worst stabs in my life.

I had Sweet Fanny Lu circled as soon as I looked at the card. Still time for you to switch as you’re screwed now!

I wasn't crazy about this card. A few horses in the 4/1 to 8/1 range but I usually like to try to make a case for bigger shots than that and didn't really see many. And of course my "value" horse just went off at 7/2, looked slow out of the gate, and never had a chance to compete for the win. So already off to a good start.

I'm going to take a closer look at your longshot though. Didn't really give that horse much thought when I looked over the race.

Weird day. Sweet Franny Lu was shuffled back, 4 riders yanked their mounts back, Jose Gomez made a silly middle move and the horse that was left alone went wire to wire. Fun stuff.

Big Woo was 15-1 ML, somehow went off at 2-1 and finished 7th. The 2-1 ML favorite somehow went off at 5-1 and wired the field. :zz:

Meet totals
$40 wagered
$64.80 returned

Day 6
Best bet: Race 7 #4 It's a Gamble
Kelly Breen spent the better part of two years trying to make this one a router and in his defense he's had some success. But, he's 2 for 2 sprinting, including winning his debut here, after a slow break. If you watch a replay of his two sprint races, you can see he his run really seems amplified the shorter he goes. Monster rider switch. Won't be the 6-1 ML he was but should still be in the 3-4 to 1 range

Longshot: Race 3- #2 Hatch
He's not going to be 12-1 because of the scratch but might still be 6-7 to 1. First off the claim by Mike Maker, goes to turf, dam was a stakes winner on turf and of the other horses who would you want to bet in here? Just feel like this one at least has some upside whereas we know what the others can do.

So now the 3rd is off the turf. Sucks for people's pick 5's. Wish they would have either made that decision earlier or postponed the 1st 10-15 minutes so people could make adjustments. I like Hatch on the main as well, but he will probably be favored. I'll switch my Longshot to Race 8- #7 Mia Bea Star. Huge rider change and this race feels like one where you want to take a shot against the favorites.

I believe Race 3 is off the turf. Which is weird since the MTOs appear to be scratched.

Whoops. Didn't realize that you saw this already. Definitely would have been nice to have more notice.

So now it is an ALL Race even though by RULE it shouldn't be. Yeah it sucked that they pulled it off late and didn't give anyone a chance but arbitrarily overriding an existing Rule is worse IMO. I didn't play the early P5 so I had no skin in the game.

It's a disaster. I think making it an all is probably the right thing, but agree the rule is the rule. You can't just decide to override the rule when you want.

Everything the stewards are involved in is a mess.

At the point they took it off they could have waited 10 minutes to announce it and we don't have this rules issue. Isn't there possible repercussions from the gaming commission on this? Those that had the winner and hit the P5 really have a right to be PO'd. I think this decision was made to placate the masses complaining on Social Media about the late surface change and they didn't take a breath and think it through.

Obviously I agree it was handled poorly from the beginning.

Da hoss two quotes a day
 

“ Repole’s daughter is the most annoying kid in racing since Baffert’s brat” -

“ Morley should just change his name to Servis or Navarro at this point”


Big man talking smack about an 8 year old girl.

You know that your little buddy works with Morley’s spouse every day right ?

Looks like I'm under your skin, huh?

Good.

I saw a few of your pictures on Twitter Dan. Wasn't aware that you had a dog and a cat.

It's a Gamble was AWFUL. Mia Bea Star got up for 2nd, paying $5.80 to place.

Meet totals
$48 wagered
$70.60 returned

Day 7

Best bet: Race 8- #6 Sassy Melissa
Aragona is the best ML maker in the game but I think the odds on Kokopelli and Sassy melissa are going to be much closer than he does. She's run well here in past, should get plenty of pace to run at and has seemingly been working well. Gets first run on Kokopelli

Longshot: Race 7- #8 Fighter in the Win
Keepmeinmind should win here but I'm not crazy about taking 3/5 on a horse who is 1 for 11 lifetime. He's kept good company and if he returns in same form wins but I wanted to take a stab with a horse who I think might appreciate dirt. It's telling to me at least Chad Brown puts Fighter in the Win on dirt. He must be working well over it. Dam won a dirt route in her debut and I think this one is well meant.

I think both picks are still running.

Meet totals
$56 wagered
$70.60 returned

Day 8
For a Saturday at Saratoga I thought this card was pretty blah. Treading lightly.

Best bet: Race 3- #3 Jane Grey
Was a sharp debut winner here 2 summers ago as a 2 year old. Missed about 22 months and came back last time at Belmont finishing 2nd behind a horse who ran pretty blah here the other day. But, there is definitely some talent here and the fact she's back relatively soon off the long break is a plus. I think she sits a good trip behind the speed and wins well in here.

Longshot: Race 10- #2 Miss J McKay
Not really a longshot per se, but more of a best value kind of play. I think she'll be 4th choice in here which should translate to her ML range. She was very good 2 back. Last time she didn't have the smoothest of journeys and I think she projects a great trip in here behind the abundance of speed. I expect the perfect inside/out from Irad and hopefully she's up in time