Two at Toga (2022)
 

Tomorrow is Saratoga opening day. I’ll be posting my top picks each day with a mythical $2WP bet on each. Let’s see if I can end up with a positive return this year.

There are a few interesting horses on the card for me but one horse I was very impressed with makes it as my best bet.

Best bet: Race 8 - #1 Canisy 4/1 ML, Clement/Castellano. Lost as the favorite last time out but once she got running room, she showed that she can really move. This race has a lot of interesting horses so I wouldn’t want to take less than 4/1 on her…but I plan on building a couple tickets around her as I think she is the one to beat.

Best value: Race 7 - #4 Angitude 8/1 ML, Cox/Rosario. I guess we will see what price she goes off at but 8/1 would be pretty nice for a horse that I think may set a moderate pace or work out a perfect trip by sitting right off of it. I’m not sure if she wants to go a mile but if she does, she’s a major player here.

Good luck Moses!

I'll also be returning for another slaughter this year

Thanks. Good luck to you as well. I’m going to try to stay away from the two year olds this year…although was tempted by the Lukas horse in the Schuylerville.

Canisy made my watch list off her debut, and has had a couple of tough trips in her short career.
Overcame a wide trip and came home fast to win her debut. Waited for room last time, switched out and finished very well, only to get swooped by a runner who was left at the gate and came rolling. To be fair though, she was 2nd best.
I'm still in her corner...hoping she gets a better trip from the inside tomorrow.

Good Luck

Thanks and good luck to you. That is a very good betting race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the trifecta pay a couple hundred bucks. Like you, I really just love what I’ve seen from her so hoping to get solid odds on her.

9 horse could be sneaky at a price

Agreed. I looked very long at that horse and just don’t see her as a turf router. I think she’s got talent though. I wouldn’t be shocked to see her run well. Im also intrigued by the 13 if she gets in.

Good Luck to both of you!

Glad to see you posting Moses. I think Dahoss deserves his own thread (if he chooses) but hope you’ll let me tag on here to avoid too much clutter in the forum.

I think last year I posted about 116 worth of wagers that returned around 132 but I missed a bunch of days. My goal this year is to post everyday and post a profit. Pretty sure I already know my plays for tomorrow but have a few more replays to watch and will be back in the morning. I will say I do think Canisy is interesting...won’t be my pick but I totally get it. That said I think the 12 Linda’s Gift is a little interesting at a much bigger price...and wondering if the 13 draws in and presumably Prat jumps on there maybe Lezcano climbs back aboard and drifts up from the 10/1 ML? I get that Canisy found trouble and ran right past her in the last but Linda was rank early and Jose totally strangled. Slow pace, still ran faster than the 1 who I think gets bet off that trip....

Best Bet - Race 7) 7 Tarabi - Tepid morning line favorite but I really liked her comeback race despite disappointing as the favorite. Looked like she would need one and couldn’t run down the sharp front runner...like the small stretch out and think she’s primed for a peak effort today.

Best Value - Race 8) 12 Linda’s Gift - Originally was going to go with Snow’s Island but I see dahoss already pointed that one out and as I noted I just feel like with Prat jumping off to the Chad runner that this one is going to get lost in the wagering. I think that last effort was sneaky good as nothing really went right and while I do like Canisy and will probably have some exactas using both, Linda’s Gift seems likely to be a much better price today.

Good luck to everyone, always awesome when Saratoga is back.

Going to post my early picks for Friday and Saturday today. I'll have to check back on scratches. It looks like my picks for opening day are set to go. Here are the picks for Friday.

Friday, July 15

Best Bet: Race 7 - #6 I Am the Cash Man 8/1 ML, Progno/Worrie. Coming from the Finger Lakes, I fully expect this horse to get overlooked but he's run fairly well in his most recent two starts and I think may have a pace/style advantage in a race that doesn't seem to have much early speed. I respect a horse like American Pure who has some competitive figures heading into the race, good workouts, and is likely an improving 3 year old...not to mention the connections and what seems like quite a bit of class relief here from at least his last start. But, I don't think he or any of the other likely favorites tower over anyone and this seems like a race where it wouldn't be shocking to see a longshot steal it.

Best Value: Race 9 - #12 Sanctuary City 20/1 ML, Ferraro/Carmouche. I've lost a lot of money banking on turf races to have an honest pace only for the horses to jog around the track. But...I think there is enough pace presence here not to worry about that. There should be some decently fast fractions set early. That sets up one of the favorites Set Piece...but also sets up a horse like Sanctuary City, who has shown a nice closing kick at times, though not necessarily consistently. I don't love Carmouche aboard or totally trust him to work out a great trip...but the horse is 20/1 on the morning line, definitely has some talent, and I think will get the pace setup. I'm against Mira Mission here and will probably combo Sanctuary City with some horses like Set Piece, Atone, Public Sector, and Wolfie's Dynaghost. I haven't figured that out yet.

Good luck and I don't mind.

On Linda's Gift, note that Prat is off and Franco is on now. Aside from that, I almost ended up on her when first looking at the card. She passed Canisy in the stretch but once Canisy got into open space, she blew by Linda's Gift like she was standing still. I couldn't get past that...although I think she's got a shot and definitely do like the price she'll be at, I just couldn't end up on her.

Nice call on best bet :$:

Nice call on Tarabi:$:

There it is...Canisy

Smart ride by Javi to jump that field early, esp after the #4 scratched.
Nice pick.

Correct analysis, Race was a bit strange after the late scratch but still... Good luck this meet always appreciate seeing other handicappers analysis.

Thanks gamblin. Should’ve stuck with Snows Island but oh well. Should also say hoss, mo and myself provided some winners today. Not sure how many people are paying attention but if anyone benefited that’s great. It’s a fun task for my favorite meet. Hopefully we can all provide some decent opinions.

Nice Start

Thanks. Angitude almost held on for 2nd but just wasn’t good enough.

After Day 1
Record: 2 1-0-1
Total wagered: $8.00
Total returned: $14.30

Reiterating my picks for today and posting Saturday's picks:

Friday, July 15
Best Bet: Race 7 - #6 I Am the Cash Man 8/1 ML, Progno/Worrie.
Best Value: Race 9 - #12 Sanctuary City 20/1 ML, Ferraro/Carmouche.

(Commentary above)

Saturday, July 16

Best Bet: Race 9 - #4 Analogy 10/1 ML, Pletcher/Carmouche. I'm not sure exactly what this horse's preferred running style is as he won on the lead two back but looked pretty good coming from off the pace in his last race. The versatility is a plus. Note that the runner up two back broke his maiden next time out (including over yesterday's winner Snow's Island) and followed that up with an allowance win over Easter (who Motion thought highly enough of to run in the Man O War.) I don't see much difference between this horse and a horse like Credit Event - although Credit Event will be a shorter price. ML favorite Fort Ticonderoga may be tough as the runner up from last time out, Growth Capital, seems to be a pretty good horse. But I think is worth taking a shot against.

Best Value: Race 3 - #11 Jocosity 10/1 ML, Mott/I.Ortiz. I know that conventional wisdom is to bet against Mott first time starters but I'm playing this horse off of a gut instinct that Mott has brought a talented group of horses to Saratoga and is looking to make some noise. Chad Brown's Robyn and Eli may be the horse to beat here and far be it for me to question Chad Brown's strategy, but I'm not crazy about her being moved from sprint to route to sprint...now back to a route. Last out, she lost to a 40/1 horse that had only finished in the money one other time in her career. So I'm not really crazy about betting her. Seeing Mott and Irad team up here, I'm banking on this horse having some talent.

I want to add - the Saturday card is really nice. There are probably 5 or 6 horses that I have a lot of interest in. Some in the 5/2 to 9/2 range though. Rally Squirrel in Race 5 would be my alternate best bet...but really just thought it was worth taking a shot on a few prices.

Friday, 7/15:

Best Value Race 5: 4 Bali's Shade - A bit of a stab here but I wanted to look for an outsider in this field. Al's Prince may well win but to me will be an underlay. Going through the alternates I just kept coming away feeling empty. If you draw a line through the yielding race 2 back Bali's Shade has the exact same form as Juulstone but is triple the price. Is bred to handle the stretchout and could be dangerous on the front end here in my opinion. Hoping for an aggressive ride.

Best Bet Race 9: 1 Set Piece - Not sure if this is going to be similar to yesterday where I don't get the ML price but Aragona tends to be good and while I tried to make a case for a bunch of these I just ultimately kept coming back to Set Piece being too good for these. Hoping Public Sector takes enough money to hold a decent enough price for Set Piece as it seems a lot of people like PS today. I just think Set Piece will motor by them late, I'm mainly using as a single in multis but if it seems like I can get 5/2 or better I probably will be placing a win bet.

Good luck.

I haven't gotten a chance to look into these races quite as much as I'd like...but I'm not sure how busy I'm going to be over the next two days so I'm going to post my initial thoughts and may tweak them later on.

After Day 2
Record: 4 1-1-1
Total wagered: $16.00
Total returned: $20.00

Sunday, July 17

Best Bet: Race 8 #4 Nobals 9/2 ML, Rivelli/I.Ortiz. I love the early speed in these turf sprints and I think Nobals is the fastest of the fast here. The main contender, Big Invasion, draws the outside post and I'm not sure how much I like him to get an easy trip. We'll see...but I'll be betting on the speed and hoping Irad is able to hold on down the stretch.

Best Value: Race 7 #11 Classic Lynne 6/1 ML, Sharp/Gaffalione. I'm not sure what went into the decision to put her in a stakes race on dirt but she's been off the track since then and now returns for her 3 year old debut on what I think is her preferred surface and distance. If you go two back, she showed some professionalism in her maiden win and defeated Russiarussiarussia that day fairly convincingly. She's a big, strong looking horse with a nice stride that, if she improves at all, is the horse to beat out of this bunch. Her works look good. No reason to think she isn't ready to fire.

Set Piece had a brutal trip but probably should've just been a clear second to City Man. Bali's Shade was a bad pick. Right idea, wrong horse.

Saturday, 7/16:
Best Bet - Race 8 6 In Italian 6/1 - Kind of surprised at how many others are picking her in here today and wonder if we'll get the full 6/1 for that reason. That said, I thought Irad really mismanaged her speed last two slowing down the race two back (wouldn't have mattered given the way the Churchill turf was playing of course) and then moving too early/aggressively last out. I think Rougir needs more cut in the ground and I guess I'm a glutton for punishment but I still haven't fully come around on Bleecker Street. I like the switch to Joel Rosario and trust him to get more out of her today.

Best Value - Race 10 6 Mo Strike 8/1 - Ran Eli’s Promise into the ground and then returned to run 24 beyer points higher breaking maiden, granted with only a 59. But several runners that were smoked in here have come back for big improvements. Think the second and third place finishers are pretty nice Pletcher/Asmussen runners and this horse really dug in/held sway late. Really just felt like he was hitting top gear and expect a step forward today. In a race it seems many are taking some crazy swings I actually think Forte and Andiamo a Firenze are legit and wouldn't be surprised if either won. I have a feeling Mo Strike is a pretty nice horse though and today would appear to be the day to try to cash on that opinion.

Nice call on both.

Fantastic! Great job

Hope that you played a ton!!!!!!!! very nice work

Nailed it! I bet along with you on In Italian. Nice calls.

Superb job.. You really deserved to get paid!

Not sure how In Italian paid $18. And the 2yo group was really good and very tricky. 85 Beyer for Mo Strike.

After Day 3. $24.00 wagered, $20.00 returned.

Classic Lynn is scratched. Going to go with Oak Loves a Fight in race 10 instead.

Thanks everyone, wish I wasn't so convinced Reinvestment Risk was a single needing no backups and wasn't so against Credit Event or it could've been a monster of a day, needless to say still had an awesome day for the bankroll. Onto today...

Sunday, 7/17
Best Bet - Race 9 - 1 Supremacy 5/1 - Going to try to get Brad Cox home in the penultimate race of the day again here...I know that the last figure jumps off the page and one of my biggest handicapping strategies is usually to play against horses I think have thrown an inflated fig they will be bet on today...however, in this case this horse just ran far too well to ignore in the last. Sound Money can obviously win but I've never been his biggest fan. I tried to make a case for a bunch but I kept coming back to the 1 who popped a 92 going back to last May and as a 4yo I have a feeling is just improving and going really well for Brad Cox right now. Should be a decent enough price to find out.

Best Value - Race 4 - 2 Locally Owned 10/1 - A bit of a stab here as he's been really bad in his last two but wondering if cutting back to 1 1/8th will help right the ship. Dylan has ridden a few of these in here and while I don't want to play a jockey guessing game (and I'm guessing it wasn't fully his choice) but at least he is familiar with a few of these. The real reason I like him however is I just wonder how much some of the others in here want to go this far. To me, he's the one horse that I feel will be finishing with energy and at the expected price I think is worth a shot that maybe he can pick them all up late.

Good luck.

Good luck. I like your best best. Not sure if that’s a good thing or bad thing right now.

Nobals was just a bad pick. Did not get out to the lead as I expected, hit some traffic and maybe a bump, and then was done.

Oak Loves a Fight finished strong to get place but the favorite there was much the best. She paid $8.10 to place to give me a positive return for the day. :D

After Day 4.
Wagered: $32.00
Returned: $28.10
Record: 8 1-2-1

Some thoughts about yesterday. Neither of my picks hit the board. But I think I was right to bet against the favorite in those races. I just didn’t find the right horses to plug in. The 50 cent trifecta in those races yesterday paid $1267 and $262. With luck, I will hit a few of those races where there is a weak favorite.

I struggled a bit with this card. One horse that I really like is Home For Christmas, who runs in race 4...but the inner turf has not been kind to early speed and I'm not sure if she can rate at all. At a 4/1 ML, I probably would have made her my best bet. But instead, I'm looking elsewhere for now.

Wednesday, July 20

Best bet: Race 8 - Mischievous Diane 4/1, Handal/Davis. Ray Handal always seems to bring a few really good horses up to Saratoga. In this case, Mischievous Diane has just looked better with each start. Her only losses came last year as a two year old, one of those in her debut and one to MGSW Kathleen O. She beat older horses last time out, seems to be improving, and is ready for a bigger challenge here.

Best value: Race 2 - Holiday Jazz 5/1, Duggan/Carmouche. Carmouche hasn't won for me yet...but I have a feeling the price on this horse could float up above the 5/1 morning line as I expect a lot of money to come in on Mariah's Fortune (Cox/Saez) and Evoking (Thomas/Irad). I like the addition of blinkers here and with an aggressive ride from Carmouche, I see this horse at least capable of wiring the field here. I'm not particularly crazy about the two favorites. Mariah's Fortune looks like the horse to beat but her best races came around two turns and I'm not sure if she'll like the cutback or not. Evoking enters the race off a 14-month layoff and her big win came in the slop, not to mention her works don't look especially great. Both are worth taking a shot against, imo. Holiday Jazz has shown a little promise in her maiden breaker and finished one length back of Chloe Rose two back (who won a starter allowance race here last week.)

A few other horses that I like at a price are: Rent Control (8/1) in race 3, Callie's Passion (6/1) in race 5, and I'm still interested in Classic Lynne (4/1) who runs in race 9 but curious about why she was scratched by the stewards over the weekend.

Good luck all.

Given it some thought and I’m going to swap my best bet from Mischievous Diane to #4 Classic Lynne in Race 9. One thing I try to do when picking these horses is identify favorites that I don’t like and then bet against them. In Race 8, although I like Mischievous Diane, I have nothing against the favorite Smash Ticket. MD is also a 3YO going against older here. I’ll be betting her, but I think Classic Lynne is a better bet. I don’t particularly like the two favorites in race 9 and Classic Lynne should win this if she takes any step forward from last year. Her works have been good and I’m not worried about Joe Sharp coming off the layoff. Basically all the reasons I liked her last week.

I'll update my totals after the races today. First card of the meet where not much jumped out at me.

Best Bet - Race 4: 6 Instinctive 5/2
Won't be surprised at any price in here but hoping some of the higher profile connections get bet and maybe she floats up a bit (though probably not as she seems popular today). I like the cutback to a mile and it seems like she should get a nice setup today.

Best Value - Race 9: 4 Classic Lynne 4/1
Let's see if we can get this one home today as a double barrel selection. I think we saw a lot of the same things in here. She's a Mia can win but is the type I want to be against. Lisa's Vision is also dangerous but I'm not in love with. I tried to make a case for Solib and Dufresne but ultimately couldn't quite get there with either. Classic Lynne, in her last turf start impressed me… fought with Luis a little early but then settled and got a perfect trip but really spurted home nicely when asked. Light on figs and a long layoff but the figs came as a 2yo in the fall so hoping she’s moved forward while off and feels like the one with some upside in here you want. We've seen how dangerous Joe Sharp is with these types.

Good luck.

Feat or famine so far.
Meet totals
$40 wagered
$59.80

Thursday, 7/21 - travelling today and again not thrilled with the card.

Best Bet - Race 2: 4 No Burn 3/1
Hoping Dylan can ration out his speed today and get the distance. Second choice on the ML but I think might drift up if one or both of the 1 or 6 take money as I suspect they will.

Best Value - Race 6: 8 Jeremy's Jet 8/1
Guessing this one won't be too fancied given four attempts already but I like the experience. In his last he put away an odds on horse and just got mowed down late by a horse coming from way out of it. I thought that effort was pretty nice. Hasn't quite lasted going shorter but hoping maybe can get away a little easier with the added ground and last today.

Boy, my picks were absolutely terrible yesterday. Holiday Jazz finished a distant 3rd and Classic Lynne finished a disappointing 4th. Going with two 2YO races today as I'm not all that crazy about the card. I wanted to talk myself into Timbuktu or Practice Squad to upset Dakota Gold...but I just think that horse is very, very good and don't want to bet against him today.

After Day 5.
Wagered: $40.00
Returned: $28.10
Record: 10 1-2-2

Best bet: Race 4 - #5 V Mart 6/1 ML, Avila/Olivero. I've generally tried to avoid 2YOs but there are a number of things that I like about this horse. First, the works are very good. Second, there is no clear standout in the race among the horses who have started already. Run Poppy, Smart Prize, and Clear the Deck have run well but none so great that the race is a foregone conclusion. This horse comes from the same owner/trainer combo as King Guillermo. King Guillermo was named after owner Victor Martinez's father. This one is named after Victor Martinez himself. Avila could has easily kept this horse at Monmouth for a maiden race on Saturday but ships him up to Saratoga instead. This signals to me -- this horse is live and I'll be very happy if we can get 6/1 on him.

Best value: Race 10 - #8 Determined Jester 15/1 ML, Schoenthal/McCarthy. This one is a bit of a stab...but check the price tag on this filly last September. Her works are all on dirt and not anything special but she should like the grass and note she is a 1/2 to Bodecream (winner of the Texas Turf Mile and in the money in a couple of graded stakes races on the turf) and to the stakes placed Califante (IRE). Her dam, Call Mariah, was unraced but is a 1/2 to Daredevil, Albertus Maximus, and Chasethegold. Chasethegold was 2nd in the G3 Ken Maddy Stakes (turf) at Santa Anita and produced Goldenrod runner up Goldrushgirl and turf winner Cayala (who later produced stakes winning Provocateur, last seen finishing 3rd behind Jack Christopher in the Woody Stephens.) Actually, you may not have seen that finish as Provocateur was 12 lengths back...but the point being - this horse is 15/1 and has a pretty nice pedigree. There are a couple other horses in this race with interesting pedigree connections (American Rockette, Strut) and some horses with more successful connections (Sugar Mamas Cakery, Factor That, Margaret Burbidge, Georgees Spirit), but I've talked myself into taking a shot on Determined Jester.

Nice call on No Burn.