Butch Lehr on bias controversy -- Horseplayer Daily
 

Here's a link to a story about an interview with Butch Lehr about the track conditions on BC day.

An interesting read for sure:
http://www.horseplayerdaily.com/cat/...+columnist.htm

Hes was probably too busy trying to scalp his Breeders Cup tickets to make the surface fair on the biggest day of racing.

It cracks me up when people say there was a rail bias just because the 1 horse won a few races. Street Sense took the shortest route home and was flying all the way down the backside. He passed several tired horses and he beat Quay by 10 because Quay decides to go 8 wide. Thors Echo didnt even go up the rail. He went 3 wide. Dreaming Of Anna raced 3 wide and then turned for home and then moved to the rail. However, she was the best horse in the field by far. Round Pound was trapped in behind horses. The jock wanted to move her off the rail but couldnt. She was full of horse and they the rail opened and she went on by them. Invasor, Bernardini, Asi, Quay all closed going wide.

Brother Derek didnt win and he was glued to the rail. He did run big though, but he was sitting on a big run. That track was fair

When a horse coming off a huge top that was good enough to win the race, but an automatic toss coming off that top, wins, there's no doubt there's a bias...

Thor's Echo

You could also see it in the first race, when PVals horse won...

Well just about the only guy you crack up with your "I'm so innocent yet trying to start controversy" posts is you.
A few horses won from the 1 hole?
Yeah, like 4 outta the 5 races run on dirt?
You know about as little as you did when posted under Kycherub.

Oracle, did you get to read about Butch trying to scalp his BC tickets. He got in stuck in a real bad spot trying to make a few bucks

Point, don't matter what name he uses, once a cherub always a cherub.
Of courses hes also explained to us that Gorella's lifetime top race "took nothing out of her", that Fleet Indian wouldnt go in the BC, that Bernandini would run faster when pushed, blah blah blah. Hes a font of misinformation.

Didn't read it but heard something about it. Did that really happen?

Oh it happend. Butch was trying to make a few thousand and got snatched up in a big scalping conspiracy, pretty hilarious really. I was shocked he didnt get tightened up by CHD higher ups.

So what if the number 1 horse won. It would be one thing if all won wire to wire glued to the rail, but that didnt happen. We had a wire to wire, a presser, a stalker and a deep closer.

Yeah Thors Echo was real evident of a rail bias. The horse had one of the top beyers and races 3 wide the entire time and there was a rail bias--simply laughable.

Sorry, I didn't really want to rehash the whole rail bias debate -- I just thought it was interesting, because so many people have groaned about the scraping of the rail that morning -- and Lehr addresses that in this interview.

It's a good read, which was mostly what I was after -- not riling everyone up again over their opinions.

I haven't watched the race again, because my laptop is broken and I can't pull it up at work,so I can't argue if he wide he was, but he had a huge top coming in and had bounce written all over him..

It was a very good read. Thank you for posting.

This is coming from the same guy that started a thread at one time:

Fix 2yo racing, because, he claime there were no such things as allowance races for 2yo's...

You're still a clown Cherub...

You know what---sometimes a horse doesnt bounce. Have you ever thought of that. He went about 4-5 wide around Attila's Storm and Bordornaro. He then went over into the 2-3 path and kicked clear.

What are you talking about. Everyone knows there are allowance races for 2 year olds. What do they expect, every maiden winner run in a claiming or stakes race.

That's what we were thinking when you posted it, it was almost amazing the tenacity you defended that statement with, at least you admitted you were wrong when I told you to pull up the results of the last race at CD on the Friday after Thanksgiving in 2004...

Not only was the rail very biased, and for you guys who dont think so I will never believe anything you post about horse racing, but the tracked sucked and took the life of Pine Island and injured Fleet Indian

Lehr should get a new job.

I never posted that and I am not this person you think I am. Not that it matters. The Big A had a real nice two year old allowance race over the weekend. Sagamoon looked very impressive. I could see this horse making a little noise in the future.

If it were just Thor's Echo, there would be plenty of doubt. Just like there is plenty of doubt that coming off a big top creates an automatic toss. I certainly don't buy that line of thinkiing.

Thor's Echo has done nothing wrong all year. He was one of the most likely horses to win that race. The bias may have increased the margin he won by, but chances are he would still have won.

--Dunbar

Especially since it was the second race off a layoff which often leads to a big race. It is called bounce THEORY for a reason. In reality what is perceived as a bounce is really just regression to the mean after a big race.

Actually, I have heard and read it's 3rd off the layoff that's the best and produces the best results...

Yes, a bounce is sometimes a regression back to the mean, but his mean was not good enough to win the race, his best was, but he ran his best by a large margin in the last race and was set for a bounce...It's a theory and sometimes doesn't hold true, because these are horses not machines...

Like I said, if my laptop wasn't broken I would go back and watch the race, but I believe there was a definite rail bias, I read somewhere that they fixed the track after the Distaff(if this is incorrect someone say so), maybe that's why Invasior and Bernardini weren't effected by it...

Let's see how some of these come back and run, I think Scuds pointed out one that won already while racing wide, I think we will see many more...

"Under a beautifully judged ride by jockey Corey Nakatani, Thor's Echo saved ground while chasing embattled leaders Bordonaro and Attila's Storm down the backstretch, angled out three wide before eventually wresting control at the top of the stretch, then drew off with complete authority. Friendly Island also benefited from his inside post, saving ground into the stretch before easing out and outfinishing fellow longshot Nightmare Affair by a half-length for second."-DRF

"At first we were really down about drawing the rail but after watching the earlier races we really started to get excited because it was obvious the rail was the place to be and we even started joking about how we could probably sell that post for good money before the race,"-O'Neill


"When we talked to Corey in the paddock me and the owners both said at the same time to just stay on the rail," O'Neill explained. "And even though the post helped, Corey did a fantastic job maneuvering him out like he did."

Nakatani said he wanted to stay on the rail as long as he could but once leaving the backstretch had no choice but to angle out and go after the leaders.On the turn I had so much horse that if I had stayed on the rail much longer I would have run over the ones in front of me," said Nakatani
"As we got to the quarter pole I decided we should just go and put the race away now."-DRF

That would mean he should be sitting on a big one in the De Francis then unless you think the last two have taken a lot out of him.

That previous form was from early in the year which was essentially the extension of a long 3yo season, it isn't like he was running a 106 all year and then suddenly pulled off a 116. He could have just badly needed a break and some time to mature into a very good 4yo.

"..On the day of the Breeders' Cup, however, the inside part of the track was clearly an advantage; four of the five championship races run on the dirt were won by the horse breaking from the No. 1 post position. Dreaming of Anna led all the way to win the Juvenile Fillies as Octave followed her along the rail to finish second. Street Sense hugged the rail as he rallied to upset the Juvenile, paying $32.40. Round Pound, a 14-1 shot, stayed near the rail and won the Distaff, paying $29.80. The Sprint produced a $965.80 exacta that could only be explained by its winning post position numbers: 1 and 2.

Horses who tried to rally in the middle of the track seemed to lose their momentum and were outkicked by horses nearer the rail. Invasor was the only one able to win with an outside rally, but even he had managed to stay near the inside until he turned into the stretch. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin rightly hailed the effort by jockey Fernando Jara: "It was an exceptional ride from the 11 post. To get over and be in the two-path round the first turn was unbelievable."-ANDY BEYER

I am not looking at Beyers, Thorographs go pull them up they are free...

Depending on when the DeFrancis is, it may not matter, it's 3rd start off of a layoff of 60 days or more, if the Defrancis is in February, he'll be plenty ready to roll...I believe he bounced in the BC, but his rail aided trip, he still got it done...

"Horses who tried to rally in the middle of the track seemed to lose their momentum and were outkicked by horses nearer the rail."-Beyer

"Horses who tried to rally in the middle of the track seemed to lose their momentum and were outkicked by horses nearer the rail."-Beyer

"Horses who tried to rally in the middle of the track seemed to lose their momentum and were outkicked by horses nearer the rail."-Beyer

"Horses who tried to rally in the middle of the track seemed to lose their momentum and were outkicked by horses nearer the rail."-Beyer

"Horses who tried to rally in the middle of the track seemed to lose their momentum and were outkicked by horses nearer the rail."-Beyer

I'm sure the thorographs show a similar trend, was fairly consistent before the layoff and came back much improved.

The DeFrancis is this weekend.

If it's this weekend, he should be okay, because I believe his bounce race was in the BC...

I'll look tonight at the Thoro's and get back to you tomorrow, I have a pretty good memory, from what I remember it was about a 4 point top if not more, but I'll admit if I was wrong on that...

Say it again. I didn't hear you!

"Horses who tried to rally in the middle of the track seemed to lose their momentum and were outkicked by horses nearer the rail."-Beyer

"Horses who tried to rally in the middle of the track seemed to lose their momentum and were outkicked by horses nearer the rail."-Beyer

Nope its not coming through. LOL!

repeatledy quoting Beyer?

He went two deep to find Ouija Board.

He found nothing else on BC Day.

What's he gonna say?

.. or else Brother Derek was not going to compete seriously going 10f and got carried by the bias.

I've heard it both ways.

He is gunna agree with Oracle,Myself,Doug O'neil,the owners of Thor's Echo,Corey Nakatani,Steve Byk,the owner of FLEET INDIAN,Joey(Ateam,)randallscott35,Lansdon Robbins etc.etc.etc.

Juf Filly... top3
Dream Anna... 4w early. hard to say she was bias aided. hard to say not.
Octave ... did ride inside
Cotton Blossom.... 4w, 5w

http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesI...=cd1104030.pdf