Who is your top Kentucky Derby contender? Part II.
 

I'm curious to see how everyone's thoughts have changed. Last time, Essential Quality got 1 vote and Concert Tour led the way with 6 votes. Of course, that was before Concert Tour's big disappointment in the Arkansas Derby.

Now that all the derby preps are in the books, who do you have as the top Derby contender?

The first poll had 18 votes, with 1 for Essential Quality. This poll currently has 18 votes, with 2 for Essential Quality.

For a horse expected to be the Kentucky Derby favorite, that's pretty lukewarm.

I’m shocked Rock Your World has 7 votes.

Every horse seems to have a few question marks so I think people are gravitating to the one horse that really wowed in his last derby prep. I also have no clue if people are factoring in expected odds when they're voting (possibly explaining why Essential Quality has the same number of votes as Soup and Sandwich.)

It makes handicapping the race much easier

Yeah hard to know the reasons, but it seems like he will be an underlay, IMO. Maybe he’s a freak, but I thought the day of the SA Derby was very kind to inside speed and those in the outer paths seemed to be struggling. I don’t think he’s fast enough to make the front in the Derby and I’m interested to see if he can take kickback.

I'm pretty interested in Highly Motivated & I think he's got the potential to get somewhat lost on the board, especially considering some of love the others are likely to get. I'll be watching his training very closely in the weeks ahead.

How the heck are we supposed to know this without the dapple report on Derby Week?

This is a nice complicated race for sure like derby should be. Hot Rod Charlie looks to be sitting on a big one and ONeill knows how to win this race. Would rather Rosario then Prat. Essential Quality is a winner and I loved his last gutty win against a real tough horse in highly motivated who had everything go his way. Known Agenda is at top form but pletcher always concerns me in derby as I feel his horses tend to peak in preps to get into derby but should get a nice setup in this race. Rock your world looked awesome in Santa Anita race and distance shouldn’t be a concern. One race only on dirt and this race should be quick up front. As for the rest most look the same but will watch works and look closer as derby gets here.

To be honest, I'm very intrigued by Rock Your World. Even if he did benefit from some type of track bias, isn't he eligible to improve upon that in his 2nd start on dirt? I think he could make the front in the Derby. I'm just not sure it gives him his best shot to win, especially if the pace heats up as expected.

The rest of the field is just very uninspiring. Essential Quality can't be totally dismissed and Known Agenda seems to be coming on at the right time...but I can't really get excited about any of the other horses.

Hot Rod Charlie has me mixed because I really just don't know how good any of those Fair Grounds horses are. Mandaloun didn't show up in the Louisiana Derby and Proxy needed a break, I think. Midnight Bourbon is an alright horse, I guess but I'm not sold on him as a legitimate derby horse. Then again, Hot Rod Charlie ran pretty well off the layoff in the Robert Lewis and ran even better in the Louisiana Derby, so maybe he is going to run even bigger on May 1. Hard to know.

I'm one of the two that has Essential Quality. The only other one I can see is Rock Your World but I think it's really Essential Quality's race to lose. Having said that, even he didn't impress me last out.

I like the same two but until the post draw I don't think about it much. If the fav is in the 1 hole I'm not betting on him.

No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from gate 1 since Ferdinand in 1986. The only horse who has won from post 1, 2, or 3 since then is Real Quiet, the 1998 Derby winner who came up just a nose shy of winning the Triple Crown. Before 1987, 19 of 58 horses that left those gates won, giving the gates a 10.9% win rate. Since 1987, the win rate for posts 1, 2, or 3 is just 1.01% (1-for-99).

These kind of stats kept me off Justify and Big Brown

Timeform released an early pace projector and it has Rock Your World able to get the lead and only Caddo River anywhere close to him. It's way early, but I've got to think Cox runs Caddo River or else this race could set up perfectly for Rock Your World.

I’m going to respectfully disagree that Rock Your World is going to be ahead of Caddo River early

You dont like rock your world i take it? I thought his race in SA derby was pretty good but if im missing something let me know b/c i know you are a really good handicapper. thanks

Seems like he won the SA Derby under ideal circumstances, controlled the pace ( which is highly unlikely to happen in the KY Derby ) and ran on the inside which seems to have been a distinct advantage that day. I suppose he can win, but he’s a bit dressed up by circumstance, and he looks like a potential dramatic underlay.

I rarely pick the Derby winner. My Preakness record is MUCH stronger:-)

thank you for the response. he did control the pace that day but i guess i have put to much into his races before the SA derby just thought they looked good and the way he quickened was good. I will agree that he is going to be bet and depress any good odds.

It sounds like you and DaHoss are on the same page. The problem I'm having with this race is that the other "top contenders" seem to have also had pretty ideal circumstances in their most recent races.

Essential Quality always seems to work out a nearly perfect, untroubled trip. Can we expect that on Derby Day? I'm not so sure and it's not like his figures tower over this field to the point where I feel confident he can overcome any trouble he may run into.

I love the incremental fractions that Known Agenda set in the Florida Derby but he got pretty close to a perfect trip. He did seem to lightly bump with Soup and Sandwich at the top of the stretch and then ended up in the middle of the track. (Two races back, he seemed to move inward at the top of the stretch and was so much better than the competition that he was luckily clear of the runner up. But I'm a little concerned with how his trip will work out in the Derby and how he'll negotiate that final turn.)

Hot Rod Charlie controlled the pace in the LA Derby but I don't think he can do that in this race. And while he's run well coming from off the pace and seems like he could be primed to run big, I'm not sure he's going to win doing that.

Highly Motivated controlled a fairly modest pace in the Blue Grass, tired down the stretch, and was finished off by Essential Quality. Normally, you could make the case that he's eligible to improve in his 3rd off the layoff but I feel like Chad Brown normally has his horses ready to run regardless of a layoff and, based on that race and his pedigree, I'm just not sure he can "get the distance."

So I circle back to Rock Your World.

He didn't exactly "control" a fairly modest pace. He actually set it with the favorite, and eventual winner, sitting right outside of him. He didn't exactly "tire" down the stretch...he just finished slightly less well than the horse that is highly likely to be favored in the Derby, and about one third of the price that he will be in that race. Is it possible that Chad Brown considers him a better horse when rating, and only went to the lead in the Blue Grass because if he didn't, Essential Quality would have waltzed on the lead, making him essentially unbeatable?

Good Magic ran third in his 3YO debut, ran a similar race to Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass ( he won but he hardly beat much and if I recall correctly ran a very similar figure ), and then gave Justify a run for his money in the Derby ( and Preakness ). Isn't Highly Motivated following a similar pattern to Chad Brown's most successful Derby runner? How about Normandy Invasion? He was a mediocre second in the Wood, and then ran arguably the best race in the Derby. Isn't a better argument that Chad Brown has demonstrated a good plan for getting his Derby contenders to peak on the first Saturday in May?

I'm not trying to sing the praises of Highly Motivated, who agreeably has some real distance questions, more poking realistic holes in the argument that you made.

I appreciate the feedback. It gives me something to consider that I hadn’t been thinking about before.

really liked Good Magic in BC juvy that year. Good horse. i think highly motivated has some talent and he ran tough vs ess qualt. was a good race. i guess we will have to see how the pp's come out and the weather as well. Always hold my breath on that hate to see them run in the slop. Thanks for responding BTW i know you are a busy man and have a lot of things going on at this time of the year.

Your first paragraph is exactly where I'm at....he could get lost on the board and one hiccup for EQ and the slight margin that he won by in the Blue Grass is history. The odds of that happening in a field of 20 are good enough for me to take a big swing...