Derby Trail Probables/Possibles
 

6/5 (BEL): Belmont Stakes

1. Rombauer (McCarthy/J. Velazquez)
2. Hot Rod Charlie (O'Neill/Prat)
3. Rock Your World (Sadler/Rosario)
4. Known Agenda (Pletcher/I. Ortiz)
5. Bourbonic (Pletcher/Carmouche)
6. Overtook (Pletcher/Franco)
7. Essential Quality (Cox/Saez)
8. France Go de Ina (Mori/Santana)

This horse Weyburn interests me. A 1/2 brother to a multiple graded stakes winning sprinter in Yorkton (but sired by Pioneerof the Nile rather than Speightstown).

I imagine he will be about the 6th choice in this race but has the looks of a horse that could really improve with time, although I admittedly thought the same thing about Green Light Go last year. This field may be too tough for him to win...but maybe he can bust into the exacta/trifecta at a solid price.

I'll have to take a closer look once the entries are official.

Thank you for doing this Derby prep thread again. It's a handy reference.

Couple of hopeful reveals on ATR Monday with Casse noting 2 for 2 at 2 Helium goes in the Tampa Bay Derby Saturday and 2 for 2 at 3 Soup and Sandwich in the March 27 Florida Derby..

Has the Jeff Ruby always been a 100-point prep?

No.. Raised with CD purchase of Turfway and big purse boost.

I didn’t think so. Interested to see what kind of horses target that race and whether it dilutes the Bluegrass or not.

Would you believe I didn’t bet this horse?

Ouch

I’ve been trying to be much more selective with my bets lately. So far it’s not paying off.

I always say if you like a bomb always take that one. You don’t need to hit many of those to be happy.

Interested in where Prevalence goes next. I liked his race yesterday at Gulfstream.

Believe Steve was reporting the initial thoughts are the Arkansas Derby or Wood Memorial. The Arkansas Derby makes zero sense to me as he would likely be outclassed by several horses in it.

Someone had to.

Hopefully he runs in the Lexington, and if he runs well, the Preakness.

Maybe the Woody Stephens would be a smarter goal....not that this is a time when people are particularly smart.

Fact that the rider smacked him hard while clear (right as the announcer mentioned how easily he was winning) in order to make him gallop out strongly for another furlong past the wire tells you where the connections' heads are at.

Wonder why the Santa Anita Derby isn't on the list of possible next starts...

Why not the UAE Derby?

The myth of him winning easily is laughable. I saw a Tweet after the race talking about how confidently he was handled. Such BS.

Did that killer that finished second catch him in the gallop out?

Godolphin currently has top Derby points earners based in Europe and Japan and also have a couple slated to run in the UAE Derby.

I'm not sure how it works, but if the European and Japanese "roads" to the Derby still have reserved post position spots in the Kentucky Derby if the connections choose to run, it will be interesting to see if Godolphin tries to load the starting gate with no-hopers in order to make things as easy as possible for Essential Quality.

I believe those spots are still reserved.

As opposed to the usual no-hopers that are entered each year by others?

No, you don't understand.

It is not "as opposed to"...it would be "in addition to".

Prevalence confirmed for Wood..

8 expected for Santa Anita Derby..

Medina Spirit (Baffert/J. Velazquez)
Roman Centurian (S .Callaghan/J. Hernandez)
Dream Shake (Eurton)
Defunded (Baffert)
Ottothelegend (Asmussen)
Parnelli (Shirreffs)
Rock Your World (Sadler)
The Great One (O'Neill)

1. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O'Neill) 110
2. Like the King (Wesley Ward) 104
3. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher) 102
4. Rebel’s Romance-IRE (Charlie Appleby) 100
5. Greatest Honour (Shug McGaughey) 60
6. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen) 66
7. Mandaloun (Brad Cox) 52
8. Concert Tour (Bob Baffert) 50
9. Helium (Mark Casse) 50
10. Weyburn (Jimmy Jerkens) 50
11. Essential Quality (Brad Cox) 40
-- Panadol (Salem bin Ghad)40
12. Soup and Sandwich (Mark Casse) 40
13. Sainthood (Todd Pletcher) 40
14. Proxy (Mike Stidham) 34
15. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert) 34
16. O Besos (Greg Foley) 25
17. Hidden Stash (Vicki Oliver) 22
-- New Treasure-IRE (John Gosden) 20
18. Hozier (Bob Baffert)
19. JPN Road to Derby
20. EUR Road to Derby
---------------------------------------------
21. Drain the Clock (Saffie Joseph Jr.) 20
22. Crowded Trade (Chad Brown) 20
---------------------------------------------
-- Hockey Dad (Doug O'Neill) 20
23. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro) 18
24. Spielberg (Bob Baffert) 17
25. Rombauer (Michael McCarthy) 14
26. Nova Rags (Bill Mott) 14
27. Capo Kane (Harold Wyner) 12
28. Papetu (Antonio Sano) 11

If there was ever a year for a foreign horse to win it...

If Essential Quality doesn’t make it for some reason or doesn’t fire, this group is something else.

Yep; the Santa Anita Derby is equally as atrocious as this weekend's preps.

That said, Rock Your World is an x-factor of interest. Has a million dollar pedigree that goes back several generations. Most of the family accomplishments are on turf but there's definitely some dirt in there (Candy Ride, Olympio, Olympic Charmer, Herecomesthebride).

Ottothelegend has a very strong, versatile pedigree as well, but he's way behind the eight ball.

Dream Shake ran a big race in his maiden breaker, respectable 2-turn debut in the San Felipe, and has solid pedigree. The race doesn’t look great on paper with most of the top CA horses either off the trail or shipped out but maybe it won’t be so bad.

Horse has talent but at risk of burning out quickly. Too much too soon. Now they are starting to overdo it even more by bullet working him since the San Felipe where he pulled himself into 2nd under restraint but was empty at the 3/8s pole.

The added ground is likely to negate whatever separation he had from Roman Centurian and The Great One.

When racing was actually structured with a decent population of horses in CA, Dream Shake would have sprinted once or twice more before stretching out in the Affirmed-Swaps double at Hollywood.

What has Essential Quality actually done on the racetrack to separate himself from quite a few other contenders? He’s gotten one perfect trip after another and run figures that put him very much in the mix but hardly a significant favorite. Perhaps he will show real improvement on Saturday, but call me skeptical.

Tarantino is apparently pointing to the Bluegrass after running this weekend in the Jeff Ruby.

Curious to see the odds for the Blue Grass. I thought Highly Motivated ran pretty well in the Gotham considering the bit of trouble he had and coming off a layoff. It'll be his first time around two turns but I think he can beat Essential Quality.

By the way, are my eyes playing tricks on me? The chart says Highly Motivated was back 2.5 lengths at the top of the stretch and finished 1.75 lengths behind. It looks like he made up much more than 3/4 of a length.

Proxy a Derby unlikely per Stidham on ATR today..

Being a half to Micheline, I’m going to keep an eye out to see if he ends up on turf some time in the future.

Was discussed too.

I'll have to give it a listen. I've been working from home for a year now and it's amazing how much less free time I have than I used to.

Addition of PRX-based Super Ninety Nine gelding MARKET MAVEN brings Wood field to to 10..

Weyburn (J. Jerkens/T. McCarthy)
Risk Taking (C. Brown/E. Cancel)
Crowded Trade (C. Brown)
Prevalence (Walsh/Gaffalione)
Brooklyn Strong (D. Velazquez)
Candy Man Rocket (Mott)
Bourbonic (Pletcher)
Dynamic One (Pletcher)
Market Maven (Pearce)

It was announced yesterday that Nicky the Vest isn’t running

:(

9 horses made eligible to Triple Crown w/ $6,000 late payment:

Back Ring Luck
Carrothers
Helium
Hockey Dad
It's My House
Maythehorsebwithu
Panadol
Tiz Mandate
Weyburn

The Shadwell NY-bred Panadol (Flatter) appears to be Derby-intended..

Anyone know who he is?