The Weak and Confused: Charlatan Didn’t Win a Bloated Race in Saudi Arabia
 

The Week in Review: Charlatan Ran a Huge Race in Saudi Arabia

That’s a pretty sorry statement when the "best dirt horse in America” isn’t the "best dirt horse in the world”.

So the "best dirt horse in America” failed to win a race that was essentially billed as match race between two American dirt horses.

Yes, his loss under those circumstances certainly confirmed a lot…

Wow! A 39-second final 3 furlongs…really cookin’.

Oh, yeah; perfect trip for Mishriff. Well in his comfort zone. He was no more than a length and a half behind the frontrunners until the 2 geniuses riding the 2 "best dirt horses in America” decided to go all in with nearly a 1/2-mile left to run.

And never mind about the fact that he’s a Euro-based turf horse who hadn’t started on the dirt in 12 months and hadn’t started in a race of any kind in 4 months.

Interesting…he’s a “very good horse”, but he can’t handle pace pressure. Kind of limits the superlatives I would think.

By the way, I’m a great basketball player. I just can’t handle playing against people taller than 6’…

Since when did they start handing out “breathers” in 9-furlong races?

But yeah, I’m impressed. He shrugged off a horse you already admitted can’t handle pace pressure (in a 2-horse race no less) and then kept to his task through a pedestrian final quarter while failing to hold off a turf horse making his first start of the year that stayed on his left lead and lugged in throughout…

Well, when you consider that the horse’s maiden race is in the frame for his “best race” you have to wonder why you’re even writing a puff piece on this hyped-up sprinter.

Ran him down? Did he watch the race?

I thought a one-turn 9-furlong race was supposed to play to his strengths…now it was an impediment?

“Really good” or “very good”? Knicks Go has won 2 allowance races, a BC undercard race, and a fake money race after getting pummeled on a regular basis in his previous 2 campaigns. The Cinderella story may have just struck midnight, Carl...

Who knew that these supposedly great modern day horses are on such shaky foundation that 2 of them hooking up for less than a 1/4-mile in the middle of the race one time is enough to send both spiraling into the jaws of defeat.

Speaking of quarters...sorry for not giving you a little something extra for the effort. I don't have anything for you now...but when you die, you will receive total consciousness (and maybe you will stop believing your own bullish!t).

So you've got that going for you...which is nice.

There is so much wrong with this that I don’t know where to start.

All I can say is that if Charlatan couldn’t hold off a turf horse after dueling with a confirmed pop-and-stopper in a one-turn dirt race, I shudder to think where he would have ended up in a 12-furlong race at Belmont in the slop with two Triple Crown winners and an international superhorse.

But let’s be honest, a horse like Charlatan trained by a trainer like Bob Baffert would never consider running in a such a race.

Oh…and by the way…since you obviously aren’t a fan of the sport or have any respect for past champions, invoking their greatness thoughtlessly to serve your sycophantic agenda , let me clue you in on something you forgot to mention (aside from the distance, the track condition, and the quality of the field) about that ’78 JCGC:

Seattle Slew was collared at the f’n 3/8s pole and then lost the lead to the tune of nearly a full length at the 1/8 pole…and he still powered back to lose by a f’n nose!

Suddenly I’m beginning to wonder if the word “Charlatan” shouldn’t refer to more than just the horse…

Huh? Were you actually going to entertain a comparison of a juvenile champion that remained undefeated through the Triple Crown (never mind his exploits as an older horse) to a horse that failed to start at 2 and missed the entire Triple Crown due to injury?

If so, that shipped sailed long ago…along with the vast majority of your brain cells…

That’s the irony you momo…he did come up short!

:tro::tro::tro:

Thanks for the excellent read!

Rollo, who wrote the original article? Privman ? I’m cracking up at your take!

I’m not a fan of Charlatan, and I was impressed by his gameness, but not every tough beat is reminiscent of Seattle Slew (my favorite horse ever, after Man o’War), lol. Nothing about this race is similar to the ‘78 Gold Cup - somehow this racing scribe managed to downplay Slew’s performance (“he never gave up” - what a bland description of his race - thank you for your colorful description, lol).

Charlatan is brilliant, but to say that he has a long way to go before being compared to Slew is putting it mildly.

Seattle Slew? I think Seattle Fitz is a better comparison seriously Slew? Have a heart

The fact that someone pays Bill Finley to write that drivel is amazing

Oh my god, I should have known...Privman is too good for this, but it’s just about right for Finley.

I find it annoying that these hack turf writers simply dismiss Mishriff (IRE) as some nameless horse that got a "perfect trip". Wouldn't the sport and the public be better served by focusing on this relative newcomer to the American scene (you know, the winner), rather than re-hashing the same old dubious praise--even in defeat--on some horse that is always 50-50 to be making his final career start?

Mishriff (IRE)--unlike Charlatan--is actually a classic winner (French Derby) and has shown versatility on various types of ground. His pedigree is strong, hailing from one of the best present day sire lines in Europe outside of Galileo (Dubawi). The female family includes a French Oaks winner as the 3rd dam who dropped two major modern day stallions in Invincible Spirit and Kodiak.

Speaking of stallions, I wouldn't be shocked to learn that these hacks write these disingenuous pieces in order to lay the groundwork for the "chosen" horse's stud career. In that regard, you'd think they'd want to talk the horse up that dusted him so that Charlatan's defeat can be justified by more than simply "he had to face pace pressure".

Perhaps more importantly in the short-term, Mishriff (IRE) is actually being considered for the Dubai World Cup. Does anyone think that Charlatan (who is "playing it by ear") is going to be there?

If they can get Charlatan back to the States and on a regimented Micro EPO program, could he make his final start in the Met Mile? You blow out a big 118 BSF and start working on his Stallion Adverts in July...Maybe something like this.Charlatan a better fraud for your money than Carpe Diem?

If both Charlatan and Maxfield make it to the Met Mile, there may be a glimmer of hope for the sport.

I would even tolerate these turf writing hacks comparing such a match-up to the proposed Easy Goer-Sunday Silence race at Arlington in 1990 (so long as they both actually show up).

lol...love reading your commentary.

Rollo, I have a question for you. I know how you feel about Charlatan. Assuming he can stay healthy all year (and I know that is not the strongest assumption), who are the horses that you see as being above him in this country running route races on dirt? The first horse that will come to many minds is Maxffield but he's just as iffy, if not moreso, from a physical perspective as Charlatan. Many times, your success is not defined strictly by how good you are but also by how good your competition is,

Isn’t the overall point that he won’t be healthy?

I don't make that assumption. But no, I don't think that's his overall point. I took it as his point is that the horse isn't that good or at the very least, won't be any good past 8f.

Again, that's the irony of the results of the Saudi Cup. There is basically little competition for Charlatan and yet he still found a way to lose the race. I'm not sure why the people that previously anointed him as the best older horse in America despite not ever having won a two-turn race and seemed to be salivating that he'd get to run in a $20 million race around one-turn are suddenly changing gear and talking about how "heroic" and "game" the horse was Saturday. He should have won by 10 lengths against that field if we presume that Knicks Go was always going to fold in a duel (as many predicted).

The fact that Charlatan himself couldn't ultimately handle pace pressure or relax in the early stages of the race pretty much exposes him as far as routes go despite the paltry competition on the scene. Maybe those limitations have to do with Mike Smith's awful race riding, but until proven otherwise he is still simply a superior sprinter.

Do you think Charlatan is going to improve when he goes two turns?
Do you think Charlatan is going to improve when he goes 10 furlongs?

The only way he will win a race like the Gold Cup or the Pacific Classic is if we get the usual paceless, small fields we've seen in CA for decades now.

In a field of even modest quality with a fair pace scenario, I could fathom horses like Code of Honor or Express Train running this horse down, never mind Maxfield, at 10 furlongs. There's also Performer and Mystic Guide waiting in the wings that are better suited to routes. Silver State and The Sound have won 3 straight allowances a piece and have enough speed to make Charlatan work early.

But don't hold your breath for any of this to get settled on the racetrack. Unless Baffert goes for the Met Mile (which would suggest he has no plans to run the horse 10 furlongs) I would fully expect Charlatan to remain in the friendly confines of facing Tizamagician, Extra Hope, Kiss Today Goodbye, and Independence Hall, probably in the San Diego and Pacific Classic.

And if Charlatan does happen to make it to the BC Classic, it would be presumptuous to think Mishriff wouldn't point for the race himself, especially if he gives a good account of himself in the Dubai World Cup. The horse clearly handles the dirt (Baffert even conveniently red-boarded that Mishriff was always the horse to beat) and is in the barn of a trainer who formerly trained in CA and won the BC Classic with this horse's similarly Euro-based grandsire...

Well yeah there were many points. How many races you think Charlatan has left in him? 3 at most?

He’s a good, maybe very good horse under the right circumstances. He’s also a horse that has made 5 starts through February of his 4 year old year. Maybe he will be ready by June for the Met Mile but IMO he’s more likely to retire instead of run. I guess we will see but I’m putting the over/under at 3 1/2 more starts for him and I’ll take the under for the table limit.

Met Mile, Forego, retirement.

Bill forgot that another horse won the race, lol. I agree with you, good points. Finley is the same guy that wrote a fake recap of the SA Derby (before the race) that had Authentic winning by 11; it was a love fest for the horse and BB - and he apparently removed it because he didn’t like the comments. He probably assumed Charlatan would win, and now he’s making excuses.

I think that over/under would have to be set at 2.5 starts to be a fair line.

To answer the questions, no I don't think he'll improve going two turns and no, I don't expect him to improve going 10f. But I expect very few horses of today's stakes horses to be better going longer than shorter.

I'm sure you've heard the old one about the two guys being chased by a bear and the first guy says to the other "you can't outrun a bear". To which the second guy says "I don't have to outrun the bear, I just need to beat you." I bring this up to say that if Charlatan was facing top horses going two turns or 10f, I might share your doubts about how well he'd perform. But in the absence of any horses that I look at and think they are good horses, it increases my optimism about Charlatan. He doesn't have to be a great horse, he just has to be faster than the other horses against him. To this point, I see no other horses that I would pick against him with any confidence, with Mishriff being the obvious exception. You mentioned Code of Honor, Express Train, Performer, Mystic Guide, Silver State, The Sound, and Maxfield. The only horse among those that I see anywhere close to as talented as Charlatan is Maxfield and again, he's under the same red flag health wise as Charlatan is, maybe even a bigger one. At this point, I'm taking Charlatan against any of them going any distance. Hopefully, we get the chance to see it play out on the track although the chances of that aren't very high.

Hence the idiocy of comparing such horses to Seattle Slew, a horse with question marks on both pedigree and running style in terms of his ability to stay a distance who shattered those reservations on the racetrack time and time again (not just in slanted puff pieces and hypotheticals).

When Charlatan outruns Tizamagician in the Pacific Classic in 2:02 and change are you gonna be moved to mention him in the same breath as such a horse?

Never mind Seattle Slew, Charlatan has a long way to go to emulate a horse like Rail Trip...

You like to narrow the argument of what makes a great horse to a single trait, usually brilliance.

However, great racehorses are more than just fast early. They are sound, competitive, consistent, versatile, display stamina, overcome adversity, show courage, and have the capacity to handle multiple starts.

The irony is when a brilliant horse that is simply faster than all others gets beat, that's when suddenly all those other qualities and factors become relevant.

Oh...he had to run fast early.

Oh..he wasn't allowed to have a clear lead.

Oh...the stretch is so long.

Oh...the track was so tiring.

Oh...the rail was so dead.

Oh...there are only 28 days between this race and the next obvious target.

Oh...he couldn't get whipped the right number of times.

Oh...he couldn't have his joints injected closer than 18 days before the race.

That's another limitation of your argument. Maybe you have become numbed by the drop off in quality racing over the past few decades, but believe it or not, all races are not 2-horse races no matter how the hack turf writers frame the pre-race hype. That's the overarching lesson from the Saudi Cup.

Charlatan might beat all those easily in separate match races but nothing from his loss on Saturday suggests that he will fend off multiple challenges from even lesser horses over a meaningful distance of ground.

He was able to put away a horse that folds like a cheap suit, blew a 2-length lead in the stretch, and offered little resistance when headed at the 1/16th pole.

Why any of that rouses confidence in his ability to go a classic distance never mind stirs memories of great horses in gallant displays of defeat is beyond me.

If not, then the argument will become "if a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?"

However, because of all the misplaced and/or scheming hype attached to this horse, one question has already been answered (and it won't matter which of the two guys the bear ends up eating):

Question: Will Charlatan be considered a major stallion prospect despite accomplishing very little?

Answer: Does a bear sh!t in the woods?

The thing is, from me, you haven't heard talk that Charlatan is a great horse. I'm not looking to put him in the hall of fame. I wouldn't dare compare him to even the better horses we've seen in the last few years, horses like Gun Runner and American Pharoah. For me, this was never about his standing as a great horse. It's only been a question of whether or not he could be the best horse of this year.

I agree with you that in order to be a great horse, the more different things you can show, the better. At the same time, I don't think you can discount a horse's brilliance simply because of the lack of certain things on the resume. Nobody that watched Gayle Sayers disputes how great he was even though he didn't have the longevity that Emmitt Smith had. Sandy Koufax didn't have the career that Bob Gibson had but people say he was every bit as good if not better. Most veteran observers of football say Pat Mahomes is one of, if not the most talented quarterbacks they have ever seen even though his resume will likely never match Tom Brady's or Peyton Manning's

There is actual and there is speculative. I've never put Charlatan in the great category in comparison to all-timers. But I don't think he'd have to be in order to be the best of this year.

Not good comparisons. I'm no expert on their careers, but I presume all those players displayed multiple talents and skills to earn their reputations despite abbreviated careers. They weren't limited to being adept at just one thing.

Charlatan is a brilliant sprinter that has yet to stretch out to any great effect. He has shown no versatility, little courage, and no ability to relax in the early stages or overcome adversity. I guess you can he doesn't completely fold under pressure, though. And he ships well.

To this point he's like a pitcher that can throw a 100 mph fastball but has no control and can't pitch a complete game.

You're probably right, but he will probably have to run more than twice.

As it stands now I would speculate the earliest we will see him is in the Alysheba in May. That's an 8.5 furlong, non-grade 1 carded on a day when Churchill Downs is invariably tailored to be speed-oriented, so it probably won't answer too many questions in the Charlataniad aside from whether or not our hero can overcome the dreaded First Turn.

But really, with limited time on his side, he needs to go for the Met Mile, Whitney, and Woodward or Goodwood to confirm his reputation and his purported abilities.

You're giving him more credit than I am. I wouldn't even call him a brilliant sprinter. King Glorious, Lost in the Fog, Artax, Safely Kept, those were brilliant sprinters. But I think calling him brilliant off of beating Nashville, who I did think was very good but obviously failed his class test, was a little less impressive than his Saudi Arabian effort.

On Drugs
 

You have got to be kidding, Charlatan is at best a quality Gr.1 or Gr.2 stakes horse that is still developing, not even the best or the favorite for H.O.Y..
Maxfield, True Timber ,Guarana, Happy Saver and others still to be seen.
Comparing any horses mentioned in this mindless dribble of articles and post leads me to believe you are all on Drugs!:confused:

Surely, you've got to understand the absolute silliness of saying Maxfield is legit but Charlatan isn't right? And then to mention Guarana just makes it outright dumb. To be clear, this isn't to say that neither of them aren't as talented cause they both could actually be more talented. But to this point, neither has done more than Charlatan and haven't shown any propensity to be healthier. Same with Happy Saver. He's run even few times than Happy Saver.

But True Timber? The same horse that lost 13 straight races before winning the Cigar? His FIRST stakes win in 29 career starts?

Guarana has won three Grade 1s, one of them at 9F. She may not be better than Charlatan but she has done more.

Most ironic post ever?

Ok. If you want to be technical. He's also won a grade one at 9f, despite what the official record shows. We all saw the race.

OK, but she still won one at 7F, 8F, and 9F...and she didn't get disqualified for a drug positive in any of them. It's OK to admit you were wrong. Really.

I was wrong. I knew what she had won. I was saying much of the same things about her as I say about Charlatan. The point was that she is a lightly raced horse that has faced physical challenges, just like he has. She has shown a ton of talent at shorter distances but also has shown enough talent to stretch it out to 9f, as he has. I think she’s nearly a mirror image of him as far as on track performance.

No comparison to the "Great" Seattle Slew!
 

Charlatan did not win the Saudi Cup,has not won a H.O.Y. and no jewels of a triple crown race.
By the way the best horse he beat was Basin in the Arkansas derby under suspicious drug controversy.
Boby Baffert is not the only trainer in the world!:eek: