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I was disappointed with FD's CD race, but he obviously has some upside.....as for Latent Heat, anyone know why he scratched on BC day? Through the chaos I didn't hear a reason for it....I was looking forward to betting him in the Ack Ack....he was perfectly suited for the one-turn route and had better sheet numbers than It's No Joke....he's an interesting horse, but I think he's a tweener-type who won't be fast enough to sprint at a high level - but won't effectively go two-turns at a high level...

I wish they would have left him at CD for a one-turn mile race like the Ack Ack...that seems like his niche....kind of like Joint Effort....he'll do best at places like BEL, AP, CD, etc. with the one-turn route races IMO....

What is a one turn route?Maybe a one turn mile.

7 1/2 panels on up is a route race...I believe the Ack Ack was 7 1/2 furlongs and it was around one-turn...these are generally specialists distances when they are around one-turn....some sprinters can be fooled by the one-turn and carry their speed longer - but most legit sprinters (6-7 furlong horses) will fade at this trip....However, many two-turn horses can't get up in time around a one-turn route race because of the pace scenario, etc. leaves them at a greater disadvantage than a two-turn race...

Many horses cannot negotiate the second turn with effectiveness and cannot get a mile around two turns as well as a mile around one turn.....BEL always brings out the specialists IMO because they run 1 1/8-mile, one-turn events.....

Horses with a high-cruising speed and stamina generally get this trip, or the opposite - ones who have a stout one-turn closing punch who do not have the stamina to negotiate the second turn....

The Ack Ack is a mile, I believe.

You're correct. It's one mile...

Yeah, it used to be 7 1/2 furlongs for the longest time and they changed to a mile, which is about the same thing IMO....the outcome of the race at 7 1/2 is just as likely at a one-turn mile trip IMO......kinda like a mile around two turns and a mile and 70 yards around two turns...not much different from the dynamic of the race....

Actually, as a tidbit - I do remember Bredar changing this race to a mile now.....they also want to get rid of the Ack Ack name (because there are like 3 races around the country named Ack Ack) and they were seriously thinking about changing it to the Muhammed Ali Mile (or maybe just the Ali Mile)....I'll have to find out what happened to that....I hate to say it but maybe they are waiting for him to pass away first....you never know...CD loves publicity as much as the next publicly traded company does......

Agreed about the minute difference between a mile and 7 1/2 furlongs... it's only a 100m difference... hardly enough to have a major effect IMO.

Yeah, and the 100m is in the already long run down the backstretch (a hair closer out of the chute)....the finish from the far turn to the wire is the same - and from what is about the same pace scenario and race set up early on.....almost no affecting difference...

Hilarious
 

On dirt, Frankel is aiming Juddmonte-owned Latent Heat to the Grade 1, seven-furlong Malibu on Dec. 26 at Santa Anita. Latent Heat earned triple-digit Beyer Figures in two straight before finishing ninth, with an alibi, in the Perryville Stakes on Oct. 13 at Keeneland.

"He came out of the race sick," Frankel said. "He's going to run in the Malibu, and he will win."

He's a pretty good horse and will be tough if he makes the Malibu. That race is usually one to look forward to.

I've loved this horse all year. I think he'd be the horse to beat in the Malibu at this point........unless Your Tent or Mine comes back for that race.:D

Frankel had High Limit all keyed for that race if I am not mistaken either last year or the year before, either way, I just thought the quote was hilarious....

I acually wouldn't disagree with him....the Perryville was over the rubber tires anyway - so it is a toss....

Hell, if I liked him against Magna Graduate, Its No Joke, Awesome Twist and all of those other tough older horses in the Ack Ack as a 3-year-old then I have to like him in the Malibu against straight 3-year-olds....the horse has run some 1s and 2s on the Rag sheets....not too shabby....Frankel is STRTICTLY a sheets guy and he knows those figs are good enough to be tough in the Malibu....be curious to see whoelse shios in for the race.....Too Much Bling has run faster than Latent Heat and is a seven-furlong specialist....we'll see...

We shall see said the blind man. The Malibu can be and will be loaded this year.

The Malibu will certainly be easier if the connections of Brother Derek foolishly pass the race and run in the Hollywood Derby instead. That plan seems like a bad sign for Brother Derek.

Have we really come to the point in horse racing where running November 26th precludes a horse from running back on December 26th? I thought it would be at least a few more years before we got to that point.

I wouldn't say it precludes it but going turf to dirt, and cutting back, at that level is probably unlikely. Not saying it won't happen, or wouldn't work, but they are two such distinct directions.

One of the reasons trainers often go to the turf as a last resort, especially with good horses, is many don't like to switch back and forth between surfaces. Or...so I hear.

I'll agree that it is a bad move if they wind up skipping the Malibu or he runs extremely poorly there. I can't blame them though for seeing a big race on the calendar, a horse with a hole in his calendar, and actually deciding to run that horse in the big race. It is an actual sporting act in a sport where such acts are few and far between.

I wouldn't like Brother Derek on the turn-back to 7 panels from a hard race in the 1 1/4-mile Classic....he'd be a bet-against for me...

I'd breifly freshen him for a start in the $1 million Sunshine Millions Classic at Gulfstream Parl in January...I mean, it is freakin' Cal-bred and Fla-breds for $1 MILLION!!!....can't pass that up. Plus, Lava Man is reportedly running in the turf race on Sunshine Millions day against Miesque's Approval - which means that the ONLY horse Bro Derek may have to beat is Sweetnorthernsaint...but at least it is at his best distance of 1 1/8 miles - and did I mention that it is for $1 MILLION!!!....can't pass that for the Malibu if you're Bro Derek's connections....

I have no problem with an aggressive campaign, obviously, but this horse seems perfectly suited for the Strub series and I think it would be a mistake to deviate from that course. It just feels like they should be thinking grass after those races don't work out for him.

The whole thing makes me feel like they have no real game plan with the horse which would be a shame. I think he's pretty good. Not as good as many thought going into the TC perhaps but better than he showed in the Derby and Preakness.

At this point, if the Malibu was his next start, I would consider him the horse to beat. Latent Heat is a nice horse, but he has something to prove before one would put him ahead of Too Much Bling and/or Brother Derek. He might well prove better but so far he's a lot of hype with a little bit of delivery.

Same case though, the Malibu is 12/26 and the Sunshine Millions are at the end of January. Nothing to stop him from running in both.

I can't believe I am already at the point where I'm longing for the old days of like two years ago when coming into a race off an 8 week layoff was a concern rather than an advantage.

Racing in an inconsequential race like the Sunshine Millions is what you do to earn dollars if your horse has no real stud value. A horse like Brother Derek has MUCH more to gain running in races like the Malibu/Strub series in terms of breeding dollars.

He won't be in the Sunshine Millions.

See, I am actually of the opinion that he will be better at 7-8 furlongs and racing around one turn......I haven't liked his twoturn efforts to date...he was quitting in all of them....

It's a long year and the bigger races are mostly later in the year. No reason to be overly aggressive early in the season.

The Santa Anita schedule is setup though so that this is a big time of the year. I'd think Hollywood Derby, Malibu, Strub or Sunshine Millions, Big Cap would be a reasonable campaign and at that point you could give him a freshening for a couple months to get him ready for the bigger races later in the year. Wasn't part of the reason they skipped the big 3yo races with him over the summer so that he'd be fresh after the Classic for the Strub series?

I thought he had some issues but not sure.

Brother Derek feels like a good Met Mile horse if things go well. That's certainly a very big race to win.

I'm of the belief that Brother Derek would get crushed in the Malibu. He's got front running speed but it's route speed. I don't think he'd stand up to sprinters going 7f. I think the Hollywood Derby is a good option. It's worth a lot of money and the distance will be perfect for him. He'll be the one to catch and I could see him pulling Lava Man or Hawkster type of race out there. If he loses, he could always come back in the San Fernando. I'd be looking at San Fernando, Sunshine Millions, Big Cap.

Met Mile is a race that I would point for with him. That race seems perfect.

Is there early odds available for the Malibu? Cause if so, after this post, I'm tapping out!

If Brother Derek's connections come to this board it's " Malibu or bust Baby! "

Let me ammend this a little. Unless he shows a new side to him, being able to win without having control of the pace, I don't think he'd be competitive in the Malibu. I think there is no shot at him winning it using his usual style and until I see him win with another style, I wouldn't pick him to be able to do it in a race like the Malibu.

Yeah, but that would be a tall task and I think a horrible idea.....you can't take a horse who has had a bad comeback after a bad experience in the Triple Crown, and then decide to turn him back to sprinting from 1 1/4 miles in a tough race and expect him to be as fast as Too Much Bling, etc. and then decide to ship him across the country again a month later to go 1 1/8 miles for $1 million and expect him to be at his best through that kind of campaign......that is a classic way on how to SOUR a horse...

Do whats right....he's had a hard campaign and just ran a very hard race in the BC Classic....give him a little freshening and point for a prime effort for $1 million against restricted company at GP in January.....the hjorse is already a Grade 1 winner so the grade f the Malibu is not so relevent to me as is running for a $1 million purse where you'll be about 5-2 or so in the betting...

Hell, the horse is a Benchmark out of some obscure California female family...believe me, his value as a stallion will NOT be improved by him winning the Malibu.....they need to race for purse money to maximize this horse at this point......

While he has won sitting just off the pace in the past, his true ability to rate is probably a reasonable question, but the turnback to the Malibu would be perfect. Granted he was facing a weaker bunch than Brother Derek rates to face but Rock Hard Ten was able to win the Malibu off a layoff and turnback.

See, I have to diagree here....He is like Gentleman, Siphon and all other of those watered-down pedigrees that could really run over there...they don't make stallions....

I get that feeling too....two words - Cat Thief

Not only was Rock Hard Ten a better horse, that group of horses he beat was disgustingly slow...maybe the worst group I've vere seen out there...they were horribly SLLOOOOOWWWW

I actually liked the Rock in that race due to how bad of a group he was up against - and thas saying alot for me because that is everything I believe against betting true routers in a sprint graded stakes race....

Well, you always have to keep an eye out for the horse to see what he's telling you so he doesn't sour and know when to back off. I still think you can be ambitious when you draw up the campaign and then back off if necessary. Part of the reason they are considering the Hollywood Derby might be that the horse is itching for a race and ready to tear down his stall if they don't get him out there for a race. I believe that they are considering bringing Premium Tap back for the Clark for that very reason after initially announcing that he'd be skipping it.

Whatever happened to Brother Derek's full brother Don'tsellmeshort?

He's probably running in claiming races like his other brother Swizzle Stick....believe me, this pedigree will not make a stallion...not in Kentucky anyway - and if so, not for long....he'll end up back in California standing for a nickle with Flying Continental and High Brite when its all said and done - not that there is anything wrong with that....they all have their places in the market