Saratoga Two A Day Part Deux
 

Second verse, same as the first. Two horses a day, a “best bet” of sorts and a live longshot I like. Will go with $2 win/place on each and as time allows I will try and explain my reasoning for each and keep track of results through the meet. I never bet to place, but a lot of horses I like run second so the exacta opportunities are there and it’s easier to do it this way then list exacta’s.

Last year a $2 win/place wager on my listed horses would’ve cost you $302 and got you back $272.50. The plan is to show a profit this year.

Day 1

Best bet- Race 3- #2 Figure of Speech
She was one of the more impressive 2 year old winners last year here. She ran a decent 3rd in the Spinaway and then was on the shelf for 9 months. Returned at Churchill last time, was a step slow, sat a good trip close to hit pace and was not abused late when it was obvious she didn’t have it. Closers ran 1-3, in what was probably a pretty good race. Winner came back to run 2nd in the Beaumont at Keeneland Friday. 3rd place finisher came back to win at Ellis last time, 8th place finisher just missed by a neck at Indiana Grand next out, 4th place finisher was a good 3rd to stakes caliber Mundaye Call at Keeneland Saturday and 7th place finisher won Sunday at Keeneland, albeit in a small field. I think we see her best today, working sharp and should fall into a nice trip. First of many Chad Brown winners this meet.

Best Longshot- Race 6- #3 Tiz Envy
Two back ran off going 10 furlongs, tiring late against a winner who came back to run a strong 2nd last weekend. Last time on Belmont Day he was more relaxed, but steadily lost ground throughout, only to finish up pretty well against a decent enough group. Takes another drop in class and shortens up. I think he can sit a good trip here and should have plenty of foundation from his two races at Belmont and maybe the cutback produces a strong run

Good luck!

Side note...my favorite time of year is the Saratoga meet and while this year is unlike any other I’m grateful for horse racing as one of the few feelings of “normal” in what is a very abnormal time.

Kudos to NYRA and racing for keeping it together (for the most part) and giving people the distraction we so desperately need. While I won’t be able to get a Hattie’s chicken sandwich and large lemonade today while watching the races from the apron, I’m just glad to be able to watch the best meet in the country period. My couch with some good takeout is a decent enough substitute.

Rant over.

Good luck Hossy!

You too Steve!

Good luck. Agreed on Figure of Speech. I like this idea and will be following along to see your thoughts.

This week has seemed like forever since the PPs came out. I'll add two favorites I'm (moderately) against and will look for alternatives to beat them. The #1 Secure Connection in race 10 (I'm going to toss from my bets) and the #1 Astoria Kitten in race 7 (will probably include in my bets but reluctantly.)

2019 Saratoga ONE plus THREE selections ~ day #1 (7/16)

1st) Grit and Glory (#2) 8/1/6
2nd) Leading West (#1) 6/8/10
3rd) Figure of Speech (#2) 5/4
4th) Dial Me Up (#3) 2/1
5th) The Caretaker (#8) 5/7/6
6th) Spitball (#8) 9/4/5
7th) Astoria Kitten (#1) 8/9/6
8th) Beautiful Memories (#3) 6/2/8
9th) Candy Tycoon (#5) 3/6/2
10th) Secure Connection (#1) 2/8/11

So how are you scoring yourself? Just the first pick?

Top pick = WIN
3 underneath = exacta, triple & super use

Day 1 Results
Wagered-$8
Returned-$0

Day 2

Best bet- Race 7- #1 Catch a Bid
Ultra competitive race and Chad Brown has 4 entered before scratches, but Catch a Bid is the best one IMO. Her return was little more than a paid workout when her stablemate threw the rider, but I think she will end up being a graded stakes winner soon and this is a good springboard to that. Figures to sit a nice trip with the inside draw, should get some pace to run at and should be a fair price.

Best longshot- Race 3- #7 Fried Rice King
Flay homebred was part of ridiculous pace two back and romped last time while rating kindly. Outside draw should allow him to work out a nice stalking trip, Pletcher seems to win a good deal of these 9 furlong races here and I think this guy has some more to give. Main danger is the fresh Diodoro claim and while I respect him, if he’s anywhere near the ML, how could you like him?

2019 Saratoga ONE plus THREE selections ~ day #2 (7/17)

1st) Value Engineering (#6) 2/5
2nd) Breed's Hill (#12) 1/11/10
3rd) Fried Rice King (#7) 4/1
4th) Pick Up the Fone (#4) 2/1/5
5th) Sandro the Great (#10) 7/4/2
6th) Big Thicket (#8) 3/4/7
7th) Blowout (#9) 1/2/3
8th) Olendon (#2) 3/6
9th) Indian Pride (#5) 2/9/4
10th) The Postmaster (#13) 11/3/1

Amen brother!

Why are you posting these in my thread?

Day 2 results
Fried Rice King came out of the gate like I have to start the meet and was never involved. Catch a Bid was bad at a way underlaid 8/5. Toughest meet in the country and I have been close with any of my picks. On to the next...
Wagered $8
Returned-$0
Meet totals
Wagered $16
Returned-$0

Day 3
Best bet- Race 3-#1 Domestic Spending
I know he has to face a really good horse in Decorated Invader and an up and comer in Gufo but I have been so impressed with Domestic Spending’s first two races. He finished like a good thing last time in a race that he appeared beat and I think we are going to see another strong effort here.

Longshot- Race 4-#3 Queen Kahen
I don’t normally land on Chad Summers trained runners but with so much speed lined up in this one and keeping Rosario I think the race flow is going to fit this one perfectly. Has a win over the course and might end up being a good claim.

Domestic Spending ran okay and wasn’t up to the task of running with Decorated Invader yet...but he will be by years end IMO. Queen Kahen reminded me f why I steer clear of Chad Summers horses.
Meet totals
$24 wagered
$0 returned

Day 4
Best bet- Race 3- #3 Halo City
I actually thought Halo City ran better than Dovima last time, considering Halo City missed the break and was way farther back than normal. As long as she breaks today, she should have a significant pace advantage here and should be sharper 2nd off the break. She should be a square price as well.

Longshot- Race 8- #3 Winifred J
I see a lot of people who I respect have landed on her as well so maybe the price won’t be there...but Winifred J should be able to set a much slower pace than she’s had to the last two races and should be clear midstretch here. If she can hold off Light in the Sky is a whole other story but I have to bet her this time.

Irad claiming foul on his brother there doesn’t really fit the narrative that I keep reading about. Weird....

Castellano rating Winifred J sums up my first week to a T.

But at least im not a guy in his 50’s with a neck beard and cornrows.

Not a great start
Meet totals
$32 wagered
$0 returned

Day 5
Best bet- Race 4- #7 Tenderfoot
Longshot- Race- 7- # 9 Kept Waiting

Tough beat

Tenderfoot came out of a super live race but didn’t transfer that form to NY. Kept Waiting got nailed at wire at 9-1.
Meet totals
$40 wagered
$10.40 returned

Day 6
Best bet- Race 9- #5 Mihos
Longshot- Race 2- #8 Northern Haze

Mihos has so much weight on him it’s amazing he finished the race.

I don’t care what anyone says....Maker is a guy that has a big time edge. It’s not Servis/Navarro, but it’s close.

Northern Haze was never involved and Mihos is done.

Meet totals
$48 wagered
$10.40 returned

Day 7
Best bet- Race 2- #1 Kinky Sox
Longshot- Race 9- #4 Old Chestnut

Kinky Sox got the job done and has really improved for Edmund Davis. Old Cheatnut just up for 2nd after looking like he’d make a menacing run.

Meet totals
$56 wagered
$24.60 returned

Day 8
Best bet- Race 7- #6 Perjury Trap
Longshot- Race 9- #5 Steelersfanforlife

Perjury Trap was 4th in an oddly run race. Keep an eye on him next time. Steelersfanforlife gave me a brief thrill through the stretch but ended up 4th also. Sunday seems chalky to me, but we’ll see.

Meet totals
$64 wagered
$24.60 returned

Day 9
Best bet- Race 1-#5 Silver Token
Longshot- Race 5- #3 American Gentleman

Silver Token beat a nose, American Gentleman took money and looked like he needed one.

Meet totals
$72 wagered
$29.10 returned

Day 10
Best bet- Race 6-1/1A entry, I like either to win here
Longshot- Race 5-#5 Wish Upon

Had I known Saez was going to have Wish Upon 4th begins a 51 second half I wouldn’t have used her. What was the plan there?

A tale of two rides. Saez (and everyone else in the race not named Joel Rosario) rode the 5th like they left their brain at home. David Cohen sent Topper T on a suicide mission and paid the price

Meet totals
$80 wagered
$29.10 returned

Day 11
Best bet- Race 8- #2 Blue Atlas
Longshot- Race 5- #1 Evaluator

Evaluator a decent 3rd as only horse to make up any ground in the race, Blue Atlas ripped out 2nd behind a horse that figured to be a closer but somehow made the pace

Meet totals
$88 wagered
$35.80 returned

Day 12
Best bet- Race 7- #4 Blanket of Roses
Longshot- Race 5- #7 Little Red Button

Crinkle trash can

Meet totals
$96 wagered
$35.80 returned

Day 13
Best bet- Race #12- #7 Dalika
Longshot- Race 4- #6 Uncle Moonlight

Uncle Moonlight an okay 3rd. Dalika was dreadful

Meet totals
$104 wagered
$35.80 returned

Day 14
Best bet- Race 8 #8 Harris Bay
Longshot- Race 5 #2 Ian Glass

Nice call on Ian Glass.

Ian Glass wired them paying $12.60 and $5.90. Harris Bay ran well but ran into a buzz saw

Meet totals
$112 wagered
$54.30 returned

Day 15
Best bet- Race 6- #3 Playwright
Longshot- Race 8- #1 Winston’s Chance

Did a virus hit the Linda Rice barn? Her horses haven’t lifted a hoof all day

Nice beat with Winston’s Chance.

Meet totals
$120 wagered
$61.70 returned

Day 16 One of the worst cards I’ve seen at Saratoga, tread lightly
Best bet- Race 8- #1 Fresco
Longshot- Race 4 #7 Mission Command

Yep. Probably not making any plays today but I'll keep an eye out because you might get some value on Fresco. People tend to overbet horses that have run against top Derby horses.

Let’s hope

Crinkle trash can

Meet totals
$128 wagered
$61.70 returned

Day 17
Best bet- Race 8 #5 Giacosa
Longshot- Race 6- #2 Factoire

Giacosa won for fun paying $5.90 and $3.10.

Meet totals
$136 wagered
$70.70 returned

Day 18 Travers Day
Best bet- Race 3- #1 Violent Point
Longshot- Race 8- #6 Pulsate

To all my fans, have a FANTASTIC Travers Day. I love you all.

As a special bonus to all your fans can you please do all Travers day Graded races?

This back and forth is highly entertaining

So is your Facebook page