BC Juvenile - Top 3 finishers
 

Which one do you think will have the best 3yo year?
I know it is impossible to know.....and it is ridiculously early to speculate on something like that......but I find these horses more interesting than many top BC juvies in the past (and therefore more worthy of this sort of premature discussion) for a couple reasons.
1) It seems like a lot of the time a good 2yo runs the entire year and we never figure out if he can run behind other horses. Not the case here, they have all proved they can do that.
2) Pedigree - All 3 are by sires who were serious 10f horses (street cry - thunder gulch - aptitude) and none of those horses did their best running at 2.
3) None of them regressed in their 2yo season. All three seemed to keep improving over the course of the year.
I suppose the biggest question mark is Great Hunter since his only big win came on the poly, but he was solid if not spectacular on the dirt, and I think most Aptitudes tend to be late bloomers like their old man.
But that being said.....my pick is still Quay.

Where did the top 3 finishers run their final preps? On polytrack? No way.

Dude its so hard to say how much that ridiculous scraped inside benefitted the winner as compared to CQ who was moving at the same time yet forced to go to the parking lot while the winner slid through inside.
My guess is that they are a LOT closer in ability than 10 lengths, LOL!.
But I feel both are better than Hunter.
I wish someday CD would learn to leave the track alone on big race days, they don't get it and never will, and two more horses were injured on that pavement.

CD is not alone in this. I absolutely hate when tracks do this.

I assume they're hoping for a track record or two to fall to further hype the event. But what it ends up doing is ruining very nice horses and making handicapping the races a joke.

I could care less what the final time is. Give us a fair track and let the best horse win.

I don't understand what you mean by this.
I am no polyfan, but what does the fact that they ran their final prep on polytrack have to do with how well they will do at three?

Yeah in a race with COMPLETELY different form than this one, LOL!!! Some correlation there huh?

Just thought it was interesting. I think Great Hunter is a nice 3-year-old prospect. I don't think CQ will get much better, and I really don't know a whole lot about Street Sense's breeding to be honest.

Street Sense is still an enigma to me. To explode like that, even with the aid of a ridiculously strong bias, was incredible.
I think hes a fascinating horse, and really wanna see him run again.

Anyone that actually knows HOW to watch races knows that Street Sense was MUCH the best in the Breeder's Futurity at Keeneland. This was discussed at length on this board after that race by, at least, Eurobounce and myself. That may not translate to his domination Saturday but he was certainly at least four lengths better than Circular Quay at Keeneland.

His win was no surprise to actual trip handicappers.

I maintain that the winner was the best horse Sat just happened to take the shortcut and have lots of luck to get through a fast closing hole. If I had to pick a winner from the juvi it would be CQ.

Thats assuming an exact translation to dirt from Poly. A big assumption. And i freely admitted after the Futurity that Street Sense was the best in that race. I thought his grass breeding was a factor in that poly race. Apparently he was just blossoming. Bias or no bias, he was tons the best and gets the props.

I am definately keeping an eye on Great Hunter. I want to see if he can move forward from his two year old campaign.

I think we'll see all 3 of these line up (barring injury) on the first Saturday in May. All 3 are models of consistency, and have a chance to get better.

The real question is, which horses in the rest of the field will improve to be a factor in the road to the derby next spring? Judging from the past few years, there probably won't be more than 2 or 3 from the juvy race that even make it to the big dance.

Hey Oracle--question for you---it seems to me that Quay seems to find trouble during a race. Albeit not serious trouble but just enough to cause a little disturbance in his running. Do you think he is one of those horses that finds trouble instead of being able to stay out of it for a clear run.

I think the trouble was that the inside part of the track resembled a paved highway and he was moving in tandem with SS and got spun 9 wide and had to run sideways while the winner got the incredible clean rail run notonly saving every inch of ground but doing so on the "yellow brick road" as he did so.
Not gonna say the outcome would have been different with reversed trips because the winner ran incredibly.

The only trouble Circular Quay ran into was a far better horse.

i still don't see it. i didn't notice it on saturday and even after hearing all the screaming i don't see it.

horses won off the rail, and horses that were "supposed" to win wilted on the rail. i contend that it was a much larger issue of pace in the races and better horses winning (which i confirm over and over the more i watch the races) than it was any sort of inside golden path home.

I agree with Ora with the exceptio, if Calvin was 1/2 a jump slower getting to the inside hole he would have been ccut off and we probably wouldent even be talking about Streey Sense and possiblytalking about the crappy ride Calvin gave.

I like Street Sense, I don't like horses that have to have things go perfectly in order to win, Circular Quay lags too far behind, Great Hunter is a plodder. I like the way Street Sense just quickened in a heart beat and blew away the field, he has a very nice way of going, seems tractible and I really liked Street Cry. I also would much rather see Carl Nafzger with a nice, exciting 2 year old than Todd Ho-Hum Pletcher and Coolmore. :D

in the first 4 bc races run on dirt....horses breaking from post 1 were 4 for 4.
you didn't notice that? and now you still don't see that? um.........okay.

i like great hunter. i am not saying he is going to win the derby.....but i think he will win more money over the course of his career than the other two. the horse is solid.

So it was a magical post position? This supposed rail bias only benefited the horses that broke from PP 1 but not any of the other horses that ran on the rail? And of course the magic dust was all gone by the time Brother Derek got in there.

No, it was much more like this....

I noticed that Dreaming of Anna, wearing saddle cloth #1 was allowed to lope around the oval at her own leisure and the rest of the field ignored her while she was loose on the lead. Then when only one horse got near her, she had plenty left in the tank, as nobody had challenged her the whole way.

In the next race I then noticed an entire flight of horses running suicidal fractions up front. Then the two closers kicked in and the one running on the rail saved all the ground and drew off impressively while the favorite took the overland route and likely gave up about 5 free lengths to the winner. The rail is the shortest way home. That's call geometry, not a bias.

In the Sprint, the horse wearing the #1 finished first, but did you not notice how the horse wearing the #1 was not on the inside for almost the entire race? He broke and then was out in the 3/4 path the entre rest of the way. According to THAT logic, Octave should have easily caught Dreaming of Anna, because NOW you're claiming that the 3 path, and NOT the rail is the place to be. So which is it? A rail bias or a 3-path bias?

Round Pond ran the best race. Period.

And in the Classic, if this rail bias existed, you'd think that Mr. Darley superhorse Bernardini would have at least offered a response to Invasor, right? And that Brother Derek would have been long gone in the first place because he had the rail the whole way. Instead, Invasor came home several lengths wide and still blew by the huge favorite. That's not a bias, that's called a horse race in which the best horse wins.

Anything else?

no i would not think that....because bernardini is certainly no superhorse. invasor was in my opinion clearly the best horse in the race (which is why i correctly bet him so heavily and had been telling everyone around here for a week that he was going to win) so it did not matter.
i was not saying that every horse that had the rail would automatically win, or that every horse with the 1 post would get the rail. but when horses keep making huge moves up the rail, and the #1 horse keeps winning every race, i think it would be something which a good capper would notice, which you said you did not.
it seemed fast to me but i wasn't sure. then i heard doug o'neil say it was insanely fast....and i trust his opinion.

Now you've done it. You're getting into details and using logic.
What will it be next, facts?:D

i know you loved invasor on saturday, and i've been there with you all summer -- no surprise to me on saturday at all that he won.

i just don't think that this whole boo-hooing that everyone is doing about the rail being a "paved highway" and moaning about the CD crew souping it up is all it's cracked up to be.

only for round pond could a case be made that the rail made a difference in my opinion -- the other four are very easy to explain and all four of those clearly and quite easily refute the notion that the inside was heavily biased.

Totally agreed. It's gotten to the point where I'm seriously thinking of not betting on Derby day next year.

And without the co-favorites it could have easily been argued that Round Pond has as good a chance as any in the Distaff especially if she got a good trip.

I must say it was brilliant of O'Neill to fuel the myth of the golden rail. He has a gelding with no breeding value so brings up the golden rail while talking about him which in turns gives his intact 2yo an excuse for losing so badly. If he brought it up while talking about Great Hunter it would be sour grapes. Because he brings it up while talking about his own horse benefiting from it everyone believes it.

does o'neil own either horse? maybe he does, but if he doesn't why would he care one way or the other about breeding value.
i just watched all the races again....and i can see what brian and sniper are saying....but the horses along the rail really seemed to explode turning for home....maybe they really were just the best horses. hard to know for sure.
i think it looked like there was a bias.....but i suppose we can't really know for sure. you guys might be right.

The sad thing is in modern day horse racing one of the main roles of the trainer is to increase the breeding value of his top horses for the owners.

Thor's Echo's explosion was while he was 3 wide. Dreaming of Anna's race was similar to The Tin Man in the Arlington Million, set soft fractions and was able to explode away at the end. Street Sense is the only race where I thought you could argue there was a big rail bias and even in that one if you account for the ground saved by closing up the rail compared to CQ or GH that accounts for a portion of the margin of victory. Besides SS had never got a dream trip before so we really have no clue how good he might be.

and i'm not trying to purport that i am unequivocally right -- there is no way of knowing that....

i just very strongly believe that these winners were the ones with the right styles and who ran big races when asked -- that it was more a matter of pace scenarios in the juvy races and better horses winning in the other three(two of whom were not even on the rail)

Here's a little pedigree break-down on Street Sense.

He's by Street Cry who is a son of top European stallion Machiavellian who hails from one of the best female families in the studbook, that of Almahmoud/Natalma through Raise the Standard.

Street Cry is also out of the brilliant European racemare Helen Street. Street Cry was best at 9f but could manage to win against top competition at 10f. He ran exceptionally well on dirt given his pedigree screamed turf.

Street Sense's dam if Bedazzled by Dixieland Band. She was a good, sound racemare scoring 4 wins in 22 starts while earning $197,455. Her sire, Dixieland Band, is a perennial leader in the broodmare sire ranks. He adds class and diversity to a pedigree. Her next few sires are His Majesty, Reviewer, and Dancer's Image... a great combination of speed and stamina.

Street Sense's female family is one of the most underrated of recent times. They're very capable of getting a big horse and producing a good sire with Mr. Greeley to their credit.

More interestingly, Street Sense carries an RF to bluehen Natalma (ancestress of Machiavellian). Its my belief its a huge example of class... and it appears so.

Street Sense,
provided they stay sound
Tiz Wonderful is better than Street Sense
CQ got into typical closer traffic

just a hunch here -- tiz wonderful is not going to be remotely as competitive next year as his performances this year would suggest.

and i am willing to go down in flames clutching tickets on street sense all next year to prove it!

I'm still holding judgement until I see what other 2-yo's pop-up at Churchill and hollywood in the upcoming weeks.
And I'm really looking forward to the return of Les Grand Trois.
If anyone saw his maiden win back in July at Belmont, they'll agree with me.

street sense for me is just going to be one of those ride-or-die horses. i haven't been impressed with circular quay or the other threats so far.

tiz wonderful looks, well, wonderful -- but has a lot of seasoning to earn and will have to beat a real quality horse soon enough. he could be any sort, but i'm taking an early november stand against him, just because i can -- foolish or not.

i just think that street sense would have won his last three with any little bit of luck and has the look of a horse that is going to appreciate 10f better than most of his counterparts. hopefully he'll lose a couple of the preps to kick in at a big price again come derby day.

this is what i've become, the idiot on the message board talking about the derby already :) -- i've just never been so excited about a 2yo in my time of following racing as i have been about this one the last two months or so, so i'm willing to go down with him!

Street Sense looked great no doubt. There is such a long way to go however and the development is so hard to predict. Of course that doesn't stop any of us from the folly of mentioning derby hopes in early November.

I will be paying attention to No Biz when he starts again which I'm thinking might be the Remson. not sure about that. He had a later start and was perhaps still too green to attempt the Juvenile. I was impressed by his two starts and think he might have what it takes. We'll see.