4/12-14 (OP): AR Derby, Apple Blossom (G1's) ~ Racing Festival
 

FRIDAY



SATURDAY

Quite a pot for Tikhvin Flew. He should have been in the Bay Shore if they wanted to be ambitious.

With the ML for Improbable set at 8-5 and Omaha Beach set at 2-1, might be some nice value if you like a horse other than those two.

Why, you think those two are underlays?

At those odds, no. But there is a lot of hype around Improbable and Omaha Beach...so...I’m imagining a situation where people get wrapped up in those two, we see them at even money and something-to-5, and maybe the odds on another horse like Long Range Toddy or Country House rise enough where it’s worth it to take a chance on them.

On top of that, both favorites like to be close to the pace, and it seems like it might be crowded up front or perhaps they stalk well but get boxed in on the rail a bit. So I could see the race setting up for a horse other than those two.

Well what odds do you have LRT at if those hold up?

Not much talk about the Apple Blossom. Wow what a race!

SUNDAY

Chris and Dave in the handicap. 20-1 ml, should handle the slop.

That whole field seems like it can handle the slop.
Is is going to be sloppy?

well its raining right now and there is a 100% chance of precipitation, they will be lucky if the severe weather doesn't shut them down during the course of the day...so yes, its going to be sloppy

https://www.wunderground.com/weather...prings-village

Santana’s horse looks live in the derby at a big price.

I remember Lone Sailor galloping in the mud at Saratoga. I like him. It is a good race though, anyone could win.

Remember Zenyatta winning the Apple Blossom when Rachel didn't show?

I'm using 1 2 4 8

Hoping Mitole jogs today. I think he can win the Met Mile.

He’s the wildcard for me. I’ll be backing Country House once again...hopefully it finally pays off. I’m out on Omaha Beach. Have it ranked:

#1 Improbable
#8 Country House
#7 Galilean
#11 Long Range Toddy
#5 Laughing Fox

He’ll win. My biggest issue is figuring out how to maximize winnings off of him.

I ended all bets with 8,11 while acknowledging that Improbable is the horse to beat.

I like that. Good luck.

This will get me grilled, but man it sure seems like Smith forces his horse to be the best horse BY FAR way too often.

I wonder if Country House will ever make the huge move at the top of the stretch that I keep thinking he’s going to make.

He had plenty left in the tank after that little spurt. He waited on Improbable and said forget about it when he came calling.

Midnight Bisou is actually favored over Elate. Lol do people not realize the gap in ability here, and the fact
that Elate was off the bench last time.

Definitely an ability gap.. A Manitoba-bred better than Elate too.

Elate looked like dogsh!t. Zero excuse.

To be fair, she was bottled up inside.

2nd time I’ve fallen victim to Elate.

Yeah I guess...I’ll give you that. Zero acceleration once she got out though. I think she’s done.

Heck I bet her and I was digging the trip she got.

:D

Maybe she has gone bad. When that happens they seem to go very bad all at once, but maybe she just needs more ground. Where is her good race at a mile and a sixteenth? Brisnet gives her 4 triple digit figs. All are at a mile and an eighth or more and I am guessing they had a faster pace also. I want to see her in some longer races with a stronger pace before I say she's done.

She never ran a lick. How the heck is more ground gonna help? She would have been better at 6f than the distance she ran today.

She's been suspect throughout her career.

The two best horses she ever beat when winning were New Money Honey and Holy Helena (in the Alabama) and those were turf horses.

Other than that her claim to fame is failing to capitalize twice on two of the most horrendous rides ever perpetrated by Mike Smith on Abel Tasman in both the CCA Oaks 2017 and the Personal Ensign 2018 at Saratoga. Stewards I suppose could have helped out in both instances.

A ton of hype from the outset but has never actually confirmed elite status.

And there has been some hype about her here, but not from me. I never said she was all that great. I just said I didn't expect her to do what she has never done before which is run well at a mile and a sixteenth.