BEL Belmont Derby S (G1): Catholic Boy 99 (More Than Ready) J. Thomas /J. Castellano
BEL Belmont Oaks S (G1): Athena-IRE 96 (Camelot-GB) A. O'Brien/R. Moore
BEL Suburban S (G2): Diversify 110 (Bellamy Road) R. Violette /I. Ortiz
BEL BEL Sprint S (G2): Limousine Liberal 99 (Successful Appeal) B. Colebrook/J. Ortiz
BEL Dwyer S (G3): Firenze Fire 107 (Poseidon's Warrior) J. Servis/I. Ortiz
BEL Victory Ride S (G3): Dixie Serenade 86 (Uptowncharlybrown) E. Coletti/M. Sanchez
BEL River Memories S: Homeland Security 89 (Smart Strike) C. Brown/ I. Ortiz
BEL State Dinner S: Sunny Ridge 102 (Holy Bull) J. Servis/I. Ortiz
BEL Manila S: Up the Ante 95 (Smart Strike) C. Clement/J. Castellano

DEL Delaware Oaks (G3): Red Ruby 104 (Tiznow) K. Gorder/P. Lopez
DEL Dick Memorial S (G3): Tricky Escape 92 (Hat Trick-JPN) L. Ashby/C. DeCarlo
DEL Cape Henlopen S: O Dionysus 91 (Bodemeister) G. Capuano/A. Cintron
DEL Dashing Beauty S: Jessica Krupnick 86 (Uncle Mo) F. Abbott III/T. McCarthy

AP Modesty H (G3): Daddys Lil Darling 96 (Scat Daddy) K. McPeek/B. Hernandez
AP Hatoof S: Colonia-FR 86 (Champs Elysees-GB) H. Motion /J. Bravo
AP Arlington H (G3): Divisidero 100(Kitten's Joy) K. Rubley /J. Toledo
AP American Derby (G3): Real Story 87 (Fast Bullet) I. Correas IV/ J. Bravo
AP Stars/Stripes S (G3): Catcho En Die-ARG 100 (Catcher In The Rye-IRE) N. Chatterpaul/ J. Valdivia

PRM Cornhusker H (G3): Remembering Rita 95 (Spring At Last) D. Anderson/A. Birzer
PRM Iowa Derby: High North 81 (Midnight Lute) B. Cox/F. Geroux
PRM Iowa Sprint H: Done Deal 94 (Macho Uno) I. Wilkes/C. Landeros
PRM Iowa Stallion Futurity: Substitution 61 (Alternation) K. Von Hemel/R. Albarado
PRM Iowa Oaks (G3): She's a Julie 94 (Elusive Quality) S. Asmussen/R. Santana
PRM Saylorville S: Golden Mischief 94 (Into Mischief) B. Cox/F. Geroux
PRM Iowa Distaff S: Dreamcall 83 (Midnight Lute) S. Asmussen/R. Santana

PRX Parx Dash S (G3): Vision Perfect 96 (Pollard's Vision) J. Servis/F. Pennington
PRX Turf Amazon S: Smiling Causeway 101 (Giant's Causeway) A. Delacour/D. Centeno

LRC Great Lady M S (G2): Marley's Freedom 91 (Blame) B. Baffert/D. Van Dyke
LRC Bertrando S: Soi Phet 94 (Tizbud) L. Powell/A. Quinonez

PID Northern Fling S: Rose Tree -- (Harlan's Holiday) J. Sheppard/A. Wolfsont
PID Leematt S: Beyond Smart -- (Smart Strike) T. Girten/S. Spieth

GP Martha Washington S: Via DQ-Camila Princess (Animal Kingdom) O. Gonzalez/M. Vasquez
GP Not Surprising S: Gemonteer 92 (Distorted Humor) J. Antonucci/M. Vasquez
GP Mecke S: Conquest Sandman 99 (Scat Daddy) J. Abarrio/E. Jaramillo

WO My Dear S: Via DQ-Stifling -- (Flatter) W. Bourke/P. Morales
WO Shepperton S: Kingsport -- (Milwaukee Brew) S. Attard/P. Husbands

OTP Everett Nevin S: Luck's Royal Flush 67 (Lucky Pulpit) J. Bonde / S. Elliott

LRL Stormy Blues S: Miz Mayhem 83 (Yesbyjimminy) E. Plesa/E. Zayas
LRL Concern S: Whereshetoldmetogo 88 (El Padrino) A. Pecoraro/J. Rose

MTH Long Branch S: Navy Commander 84 (Poseidon's Warrior) R. Reid/A. Arroyo
MTH Jersey Girl H: Valedictorian 79 (Temple City) K. Breen/C. Hernandez

BTP Hoover S: Diamond Dust 58 (Paynter) T. Hamm/L. Colon
BTP Cincinnatian S: Mobil Bonnet 55 (Mobil) J. Tooley/J. Journet

ELP Ellis Park Turf S: Bonnie Arch -- (Regal Ransom) I. Wilkes/C. Landeros

NP Shirley Vargo H: Sail On By -- (Finality) T. Rycroft/ N. Ortiz

SUF Last Dance S: Dr Blarney 85 (Dublin) K. Grusmark/T. Piermarini
SUF First Episode S: Princess Dream -- (Freud) J. Buckley/J. Sone
SUF Louise Kimball S: Saint Anna -- (Kodiak Kowboy) D. Clarke/L. Perez

EVD John Henry S: Big Changes 86 (Midshipman) B. Cox/C. Hernandez

EMD Seattle Slew S: Sippin Fire -- (Harbor the Gold) S. Bullock/R. Bowen

Congrats to the connections of Firenze Fire. That was some job by a very talented trainer. Obviously, an immensely talented emerging ever-improving talent that runs off the screen. In the 11th race of his career, this horse just improved about 11 lengths, NOW THAT IS TRAINING. A VERY generous 7.50 payoff to boot. The future is bright as connections believe his best distance will be 7 furlongs. I am excited to see him in the future!

:tro:

107 BSF for Firenze Fire... RUNNER

17 point jump? Not bad!

Logical progression as the colt was a major G1 winner at Belmont already. We see these things happen with maturing 3-year-olds all the time, they change so much from month to month. Favorite track, best suited around one turn, good freshening off a Classic trail which really gave him an excellent foundation to cutback and be fruitful. I wonder if other trainers will take Jason's lead and use the Classics as a foundation builder in the future? Kudos to Servis, he has campaigned this colt nicely, the 107 was ALWAYS in the making.

When the wagering action on Firenze Fire is coupled with the way that the horse performed for his "hot" trainer, you would like to think that there would be some investigations started.

There won't be.
Nothing to see here.

Think its more likely Jason Servis picks up some helpful new owners that buy him some better "pedigreed" stock. The horses will test clear and the narratives will flow like I have suggested.

Stolen from Tweet Kevin Cox: I would assume the numbers are reasonably accurate.


By my pencil and paper calculations, Jason Servis has won with 30 of his last 60 starters. The 24 winners ( excluding 5 first time starters & today's score ) averaged a Beyer increase of 13.4 points with a median of 18 points.

Very impressive numbers.

By my pencil & paper calculations, Jorge Navarro is 30 for his last 60 with an average Beyer improvement among his winners of 9.5 points and a median of 7 points.

And people say racing is dead? Dead? You just need the very best horseman and you are sure to be VERY alive.

Anybody who tells you racing is dead are idiots there are folks doing really nicely. It's a golden age

It would be nice if racing commentators stopped fawning over the "shrewd" owners who hire these trainers.

Quite the action on FF late.
He entered the gate at 5-1.
His early flashes during the running of the race were 5-1.
He paid $7.50 to win.

Is this common for horses to improve like that for these guys?
Did they do it last year? Is ~50% their standard?

Shall we expect it to continue, as the new standard?

Is it really the golden age for bettors when the odds drop so drastically long after the vast majority of them have any option to bet accordingly?

It certainly might be the golden age for those on the inside of the game who have this information and the ability to bet through special means.

Or will people finally say enough is enough and go home and bet on baseball?
Us idiots are noticing and we are questioning the game's integrity.

This kind of race makes a mockery of the entire game.

Are you kidding me? Phipps is selling the only decent horses they have. Wait till you get a load of Snap Decision Revved Up and Fire Away etc once they find their way to real horsemen that know how to train a good horse, these tired old trainers that have no clue how to train the Modern TB are dinosaurs, bring on the new guys that can get them to RUN... How isn't it the Golden Age?

Sadly, I thing you believe that.

He doesn't. He's being facetious.

Please try to use words Freddy understands.

Your thoughts on Firenze Fire?

As I said many times before, he should be running only in 7F to on mile races around one turn.

OK...:o

Pretty simple regarding him.

Yes, I get that. There are plenty of people who would have agreed with that assessment before this race. I was wondering what the thoughts are about him topping his previous high BSF by 17 and even topping his BSF from his most recent one-turn mile(the Gotham) by 28 points?

Andy said this before the Withers and before Wood, Steve even had Servis on the air and intimidated as much. Steve went as far as to suggest by-passing the classics, Nick Tammaro said as much as well. So the fact that he ran well at was apparently his best distance is hardly a surprise.

7.50 and a 107 BSF is a whatever moment. To be fair all the things I posted could be genuine if it did not occur during a 30 for 60 run by the barn, that's when we all should be alarmed.

I don't know what you want Andy to say publicly I assure you he won't because that would be irresponsible for a person in his position. Me I am nobody I can say what I want and considering I wrong most of the time vs. Andy who is right most of the time nobody should take me seriously.

Yeah I suppose I am fishing a bit.

So what’s the solution here?

As bettors, do we just bet with Servis until he “cools off”? Do we avoid races he’s in? Do we try to beat him?

As people who care about horses, do we want regulatory changes to reduce the ways trainers can game the current system?

You know what's interesting in all this?

Not a peep about Red Ruby increasing her Beyer form 15 points from the Black Eyed Susan (89) to Delaware Oaks (104)..

Hey.. Norm Crosby.. Intimated.. It's intimated.

Grammarly can only do so much Steve it cannot make an illiterate pencil salesman proofread.

Firenze Fire paid 7.50 for a barn that has won at 50%. There is documentation in the public domain that suggests a substantial amount of money came pouring into many of the pools. Why conflate the issue with Red Ruby? Why attempt to normalize it? Is this type of activity what the powers that be wish to be normal(maybe TSG)? Does NYRA really want a barn winning at 50%? Do they want the entirety of a trainers barn to improve 10 to 15 BSF points off their last start? I get it a Kellyn Gorder filly ran a colossal race, the guy has had 100 starters in 6 months and wins at a good 17%, you really want the community to be vocal about his one good horse running a big race?

YOU told Jason to keep this horse around one turn; you even were forward enough to suggest to skip the classics. That said NONE of what we have been treated to by Team Servis is healthy, and or the smoke trail of the computer wagering, I am not saying it's criminal, I am not saying it's so different than 10 days in the life of a Rudy cycle or many a trainer we all have witnessed over the years. I don't see why we need to accept it as a standard operating procedure or remotely OK, nor do I get wondering why Red Ruby performance is comparable.

I don't hate computer players to the contrary I think in a way they have proven the game is beatable. The advantages they have are the ones they created and or have been afforded to them. Fair play to all

I saw his mistake too, but didn't think of Norm Crosby. Haven't thought of him in years. He's got to be long gone. If he were alive, he'd probably be a hundred and ten. He was the absolute king of malapropism and he could do it so seamlessly. He was a very funny guy.:tro:

Just like Freddy!





Norm Crosby is still alive! He's 90.

My point in bringing up Red Ruby, no matter what anyone's feeling are towards Servis' success, is to demonstrate that it's not that unusual for 3yo's to improve markedly at junctures along the development process.

A 30 point move by a 3yo is not impossible.
Big moves happen all the time. I love to anticipate a big move.

Usually there are some clues indicating it is coming - just beating the 2yo top, pairing tops.....but this one didn't show anything, imho, to indicate such a big move. Couple that with literally last second heavy action by a minority, and one has to wonder.

The horse was a contender, he had the top fig a few months ago. He was cutting back fro the TC prep distances. Had he been bet down to 5-2 gradually, suggesting a lot of people were looking at him, it would not have been an issue.

But the last 36 seconds and a monster move......perception is the only thing that counts. If he won an earned a 95 Beyer.....not suspicious. The discussion would be on his next race.

Pretty good questions.
I've learned over the years the worst thing you can do is try to beat a streaking barn when they're connecting.
So,you go one of two ways:
Skip the races with the hot barns...…..or include them on most of your tickets.
It helps to be on top of a circuit,if you notice a capable barn trending hot early on then you might just lean that barns way until they show signs of bottoming.
It's the old what goes up must come down deal...…….sooner or later for whatever reason the hottest barns cool off(with a very few exceptions).
Norman McKnight is a prime example,he was hitting with just about every single horse he sent out when Woodbine opened up a couple months back......it was shocking how much he was winning.
But...…..he hit an iceberg a few weeks back and now he's kind off a toss and he's still getting hit hard at the windows.

It also helps if you're a multi-race bettor.
A lot of times the hard win money on the streak barns doesn't show up in the P-3/4/5's...…..and if it does,it's attached to low priced morning line runners in the other races.
If you're wise to the streak barn you just add that barns horse to your multi ticket in the dark......you don't even look at the PP's.
The cost shouldn't extend your ticket too much and you'd be surprised how often the blind add on keeps a ticket alive.
Brad Cox at Oaklawn earlier in the year was a great example.
He was almost an auto-add for the entire meet,and for good reason...…

If you're a win bettor it's tough to handle due to the lack of long term value.

Good to hear that Norm is still with us. :D

Paul Matties did an outstanding job of explaining the confluence of events that he deemed the "perfect storm" concerning the Dwyer.

Paul is not as easy to follow nor as eloquent a speaker as some but no denying he is super sharp.

The best part of the 45 minutes was Paul's acknowledgment that this race looks terrible on many levels and EVEN IF the circumstances are 100% above board it shouldn't be discounted as just another day at the races which in reality it was. He gets looking bad is not OK just because a few people with expertise can explain circumstances away. I appreciated that position very much. It showed an actual level of caring about bettors who he competes with daily.