here is what i think,start calling me a dummy
 

justify wins the Belmont by 6 to 10 lengths

reasoning? ok here is my light bulb moment

in the derby there was nothing in there to push him all the way around

you had kinda cheap speed go maybe 5 furlongs and then spit the bit
justify took over and always had a 2 length lead at all times after that

in the Preakness there was no cheap speed there was a solid horse who took lustify to the limit in good magic nothing cheap about him

my thinking is you need a horse that can have speed throughout the whole race good magic did that and only got beat a length[ a credit to the horse he is
if anyone had that kind of horse ,the Preakness was the race to put him in, not the Belmont I think you will get a couple of cheap speed horses that will take justify ,who will lye 3rd to the 5 furlong pole and justify just cruises by there isn't a horse out there that can sustain what good magic did in Preakness this will not be close

I think he wins easy because he’s in unreal condition + more talented than these, or he finishes off the board because he’s way over the top. I don’t see any in-between, but the race is 3 weeks away.

O’Neill’s horse seemed to like Belmont just fine...

Good point, Ontheoutside
 

He looks the part. I think that is the key. He looks that good. He has looked like a superhoss from the beginning. He is intelligent. The way he goes he will be impossible to beat in the Belmont. He will eat up those big wide turns and win by double digits.

Ideal trip never hurts...

Justify finished a rapidly diminishing half-length in front of two previously unremarkable 3-yr-olds, and now he's unbeatable in the Belmont? I don't think so.

Watch for one Ortiz brother to go on a suicide pace mission to setup the other... Smith has to avoid falling for it...

The NY shuffle tactic....works pretty often ;)

looks like different opinions
 

that's good but with all due respect to dunbar no one will do what good magic did for as long as he did it justify wont be under pressure like Preakness just not going to happen

now everyone says horses will go on suiside mission and justify must not fall into trap
remember folks he knows how to sit the trip
my opinion it wont be close
for my sake I hope im worong because I bet the longshots
but I just think im right here

I agree with Dunbar. I'm looking to bet against Justify in the Belmont. He will be way overbet and he is coming off only an average performance. Even horses who look like world beaters winning the Ky Derby and Preakness usually get beat in the Belmont. Here we have a horse coming off an unimpressive win. I think there is a good chance that the hard campaign he has had in a relatively short period of time is starting to catch up with him. We will know more when we see him train over the next couple of weeks. I will be looking for any minor change in his appearance. We will see if his energy level galloping is as good as it has been the last couple of months. If he looks as good as ever, then I won't be in such a big hurry to bet against him. But if I see even a minor change in his appearance, I will be eager to bet against him.

rupert?
 

I must ask what was unimpressive about it? he was stalked by the champion 2 yr old for a mile and 2/16th unimpressive? really?

His Ky Derby performance was obviously very impressive. He set suicide fractions and still won relatively easily. In the Preakness the pace was average and he barely beat Bravazo. Barely beating Bravazo after setting dead average fractions is not impressive to me. Examples of impressive performances in the Preakness would be Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, and horses like that. And even those horses got beat in the Belmont.

This 2018 Preakness was one of the least impressive Preaknesses, if not the least impressive in the last 20 years IMO.

to each his own
 

good luck on the belmont

Justify and Good Magic ran the fastest opening quarter for a route race the entire Pimlico weekend and also set the fastest mile time as well. This is particularly relevant because the Preakness was the longest race of the weekend.

They went fast early and sustained it into the far turn.

way to go rollo.
 

hum, your turn Rupert should get facts straight before hitting those letters

I probably shouldn't have the used the word "average". I should have said, "slightly faster than average". They went the half in :47.11. That was the 3rd fastest half out of the 6 route races on Saturday. Ax Man went :46 4/5. It didn't seem to bother him. He won by 7 lengths. Unle Mojo's race went :46 3/5. He was laying 2nd about 2 lengths behind. So he went around :47. He ended up winning by 12 lengths.

No matter what metric you use, Justify set way faster fractions in the Ky Derby and won easily. He went much slower in the Preakness and barely beat Bravazo. Justify definitely regressed in the Preakness. Now he will be coming back in 3 weeks to run 1 1/2 miles. That is the kind of horse I will always be looking to bet against. As I said before, if he continues to keep training really well, I will not be as gung-ho to bet against him. But if I see even a tiny change (which I am expecting to see) in his appearance, I will be betting against him enthusiastically.

By the way, if you are going to compare the fractions of the Preakness to route races run that day, I think the half mile time is a much better comparison than the opening quarter mile. The Preakness is 1 3/16 miles, so they had a much longer run to the first turn than the other route races. So the opening quarter will automatically be a few ticks faster than the opening quarter in the other route races, all things being equal. They run much faster on straightaways than they do running around a turn.

well im with you there rupert
 

I too will try to beat him ,as a gambler but I still think he wins going away

I don’t quite understand the contempt for Bravazo. As a bettor, sure he’s frustrating because it seems like there are races where he just doesn’t want to run. But when he’s on, he normally puts together a good race.

He’s now run well in both Triple Crown races. His performances deserve a little bit of respect.

As far as Justify’s performance in the Preakness, does anyone know the last time the Derby and Preakness were both run in wet conditions? Is there any way Justify didn’t come out of the Derby 100% (we heard the scratches / heel bruise stuff) and he didn’t take to the wet surface as well the second time around because of it?

If you didn't go to the wedding, don't go to the funeral :wf

Bravazo is not a bad horse. He's obviously a decent horse. He won the Risen Star. But when you look at his best races compared to Justify's best races, Justify should beat him relatively easily (3-4 lengths minimum). Show me one race that he's ever run that would get within 2-3 lengths of Justify at his best.

In addition, what do you think past Triple Crown winners would have done to Bravazo? They would have crushed him. A horse who can barely beat Bravazo in the Preakness is unlikely to win the Triple Crown.

It is possible that Justify had an excuse that we are unaware of. It is conceivable that he wasn't crazy about the track. Not all sloppy tracks are alike. Maybe the pace was faster than it looked. On a day like that, the track condition can change over the course of the day. Maybe it was slower and more tiring by the time the Preakness was run. But I think those things are unlikely. In addition, it seem unlikely that he will improve coming back in just 3 weeks and running 1 1/2 miles. We will see.

This feels silly.

One of those tough ones. Definitely would love to see another triple crown winner. If he is home free down the stretch I will be cheering for him.

For wagering I am hoping he finishes 3rd or worse. I am considering a box exacta with all but Him.

Ok. All of that is fair. I have to see who actually enters this race but there’s a good chance Justify will not be my top choice.

I saw some footage of Justify galloping the last couple of days at Churchill Downs. The horse looks absolutely great. The horse is amazing. He is like an iron horse. You would think he would show some signs of fatigue after the hard races he has had lately. But he doesn't seem to show any signs that he's had some hard races. His weight looks good, his energy is great and his stride looks great. I will still probably make a small bet against him just out of principle, but as good as he looks, I wouldn't be surprised in the least bit if he wins.

Here is footage of today's gallop: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXaKmW7py5E

In terms of the way he galloped the last couple of days, he literally looks identical to the way he looked before the Ky Derby.

rupert
 

did you happen to listen to the show Friday morning opening guest the mig listen to it this is why your analasis is foolish have a great day p.s. I would rather value a opinion of a guy with 30 years in game then one that has zero

you know what rup?
 

you and I have different opinions on this and steve and mig agree with me if you listened to show just wanted it to point it out so ill end this subject and lets move on to others your opinion will never sway me and mine [even with steve and mig agreeing with me] will not sway yours good luck with your betting knock them dead

I listened to the interview. I agree with practically everything they said. As they both said, they think the horse looks great right now. I agree 100%. As they both said, we have seen horses who looked unbeatable after winning the first two legs, yet got beat in the Belmont. As Mig and Steve said, many people including myself were not particularly impressed with Justify's Preakness performance. As Steve said, right after the race and the next few days after the race, many people including myself were thinking the horse was a great bet against in the Belmont.

But now that I've seen how good the horse is training, I'm not nearly as eager to bet against him. I was thinking the reason that he didn't run that well in the Preakness was because he was probably tired. But a tired horse is not going to look the way he looks right now. So the question is why wasn't he more impressive in the Preakness. I think your analysis and Mig's analysis may have been right. I may have underestimated the difficulty of his trip. I thought he had a relatively easy trip. But as you guys said, he was head and head with a very good horse. And maybe the pace was faster than I thought. On a day when it's raining all day, the track can change quite a bit over the course of the day. The fractions didn't seem particularly fast to me, but they may have actually been faster than I thought. In addition, in hindsight I think he may not have handled the track that well.

We may see the real Justify on a fast track in the Belmont. There is still some question about the distance but there is a question about the distance for practically any horse running 1 1/2 miles. Whether I bet against Justify will depend on his price. Now that I have seen how well he is training, I think the chances of him winning have gone way up. By the same token, many great horses have gotten beaten in the Belmont. If he goes off at even money, I doubt I will bet against him. But if he is a heavy odds-on favorite, I will probably take a moderate shot against him. I no longer have a strong opinion on the race. I would not be surprised to see Justify win easily. By the same token, I would not be surprised to see him get beat.

Here is an interesting article on the case against Justify:
http://www.drf.com/news/watchmaker-b...-story-justify