BC singles
 

I've enjoyed reading about everyone's longshot picks to run well in the BC, but what about the locks?

What horses do you intend to use as singles in a DD, P3, P4, or P6?

Are most of you looking at Bernardini as your single?

The 2004 BC was a walk in the park compared to this year and last because bettors could confidently single five of the eight races with Ghostzapper, Ouija Board, Speightstown, Sweet Catomine, and Ashado.

And although bettors couldn't count on much last year, at least they knew that St. Liam could be reasonably singled in the Classic and that a Euro invader stood to win the Turf.

But this year's BC card is looking very tough, especially for those who don't want to go with chalk in the Classic. Still, I don't see much of an alternative; at the end of the day, no doubt a lot of bettors are going to depend on Bernardini as their "get-out" horse. Dollars to doughnuts his odds will be bet down to nothing.

Lava Man

Training well, been in Kentucky for 3 weeks, ready to rock and roll

I hope

In order of which I'd be most likely to single, by race:

1. Bernardini is a lock.
2. Principle Secret
3. Henny Hughes
4. Pine Island
5. Hurricane Run
6. Ouija Board
7. Araafa
8. Cash Included

I'm considering singling Dreaming of Anna so I can go deep elsewhere (like the Sprint) and try and catch a bomb. I feel like a lot of people are going deep in the BC Juv Fillies that I'll be abe to get better odds on Dreaming of Anna in the multi race pools than I could in the actual race.

The best single is Circular Quay.
If you look at his races on the REAL dirt and compare it to the other horses in this race....he looks like a class above to me. Plus, he has already won twice on this track.
He is as close to a lock as a horse can be in a BC race.

the race won most often by the fave is the distaff, so i'd imagine fleet indian would be the logical lock. but i really don't think any of them are a 'lock'. each race has many top notch horses, any of which can win. it's a watch only day for me anyway, one to enjoy purely as a spectator.

Bernardini is a single....I invested in over a $3,300 ticket and singled him and wound up singling Ouija Board - which makes me extremely nervous....I wanted to use Wait a While but we decided to go deep other places...

But would there be any logical reason why the favorite would win the ditaff more than any other race? I would not think so. Each division is going to be different each year so to me it is not productive to look for divisional trends.

Yeah, but...

You want to single Circular Quay and he is attempting to do something he has never done- win around two turns. How can you call a horse attempting to win around two turns for the first time a "lock"?

my signature says it all.

I love Invasor to win too but I can't say I have the balls to single him.

You might want to read a bit more carefully. I did not call him a "lock." I said he was "as close to a lock as a horse can be in a BC race." That is different. There are too many good horses in these races for anyone to be a lock, but after watching all of his races multiple times....I believe he is a two-turn horse. It was not the two-turns that got him last time....it was the garbage surface he was running on. The fact that he is by Thunder Gulch also suggests (although obviously does not ensure) that stretching out should not be an issue.
In my opinion he is just a lot better than the rest of these. To me....that makes him a strong single.

but like any other tool you use to cap, it might be helpful. personally i'm hoping the distaff isn't won by the fave this year! all i meant was if you're looking for a single, the distaff might need more looking at than some of the others, kind of like a lot of people shy away from the derby fave since so often they don't manage to win.

I sort of see what you are saying....but I just do not agree. If you use that as a handicapping tool that just means you are taking into account things that Azeri or Personal Ensign did years ago to handicap a race that is happening now! That just does not make sense to me. If it is a tool that works for you.....feel free.....but I take each race individually. I am going to bet a favorite or try to beat a favorite based EXCLUSIVELY on what I think of THAT horse and the competition, rather than horses that have run in that race in the past.

Fair enough and perhaps you will be proven correct.

Personally, I think calling a horse thats never won around two turns "as close to a lock as a horse can be in a bc race" is not logical thinking. It would be nice to assume that the surface is what did him in at keeneland (i agree actually) but we arent sure of this. It could very well have been the extra turn that made him hang. Good luck on that single. I will play Circular Quay but not single him.

As for my own single, i will try hurricane run in the turf.

then you must find them.
who else might win the race? bernardini? i would rather lose every cent i bet on saturday than cash a winning pick-6 ticket if it meant i had to bet on that freaking horse.

Well I guess we basically agree on the horses and just disagree about how to bet them. I like Hurricane Run too.....but I would not single him. I just like Cacique too much in that race. I will have to play both of them in any pick-3s I play.

lol

i have to admit i'd rather see lava man win, or maybe invasor--been high on both of them all year. but it won't bother me to see bernie win it if he does.

Hell , let me cash a winning pick six ticket it doesnt matter how wins. Bernadini invasor, flower alley, alfeet alex, ghostzapper... i just want to cash the ticket. Beyond that why would you rather lose all your money then see a horse win. Its just a horse and its still your money?

WOW.
I am no fan of Bernardini.....but I think you must be the biggest Bern-hater around!!
Other than CQ, there are no singles I would feel real good about. I actually like Aragorn a lot in the mile, but I think playing a single in that race would be insane.

those are all sound logical points......but when it comes to my dislike of that horse (i have decided not to use his name anymore)........logic plays no role.

you can count on it on sat....when dini does invasor ugly..why the hate..hes a fine horse..and the only reason in capable sior didnt run in jcgc is he would have been spanked there instead of here..oh my arm.....its a no brainer that if your going to lose to the best you would prolong it till you get the max for your try..2nd or third pays more here.....thats it..

i shall wear the title proudly!!!

what? if that was the reason wouldn't it pay even more to finish second in the jcgc and the bcc? what advantage are you suggesting invasor gained by not running in the jcgc?

5 million classic...dini is a hart breaker whos to say he would have made it too the bc ,,,after a dis-hartening..3rd by 17 lenths..lol..dude im just playing..invasor is a fine horse ..good luck on bc day

same to you.
i hope every bet you make that doesn't include bernardini is a winner.

the bc classic is worth 5,000,000..do you not understand..the belmont race purse was less..get it...

2nd in bc classic = $1 mil
3rd in bc classic = $600k

1st in jcgc = $450k
2nd in jcgc = $150k

thanks stud i didnt think i was crazy...

As far as C.Q. goes,lets just hope he gets a post like he did in his other races at Churchill.You see,it could have been the surface.It could have been the distance(really the pace of 23'1 that he may not of been thrilled with.) You have to also consider that his rider has routinely blown rides on raters from the inside post positions.He repeats the same mistakes.He gets trapped down inside(and behind)horses,and has to wait for others to do what they may.It is his one major weakness.Same with Happy Ticket's expert ride on that rail.

ON THE RAIL AGAIN.......

JUST CAN'T GET OFF THIS DAMN RAIL AGAIN........

LOCKED IN, AND IT COULDN'T BE MY OWN DAMN FAULT....

CUZ I DON'T WANT TO BE ON THIS DAMN RAIL AGAIN.......

Lava Man has been in Kentucky for 3 weeks. Connections learned, one would think, from previous mistakes. Way overlooked horse come Saturday. Real runner, will bust out and Dini will have to catch and get lead. I doubt Innnn vvvaaaaa soooorrrrrrrr:D hits the board. Way I see it, it's Dini or Lava first, the loser of that match finishes 3rd or worse, used up on that loonnnnggggg stretch run to the wire. Sun King, who knows.

The thing is though if I play against Bernardini I don't want to just play Invasor. It would be pretty darn frustrating to pick against him and be right but not have the right horse and miss on some huge payout. I'm considering passing on the Pick Six and just playing all the Pick 3s. That way I can kind of alternate races I go deep so I don't miss out on a bomb I liked just cause I picked that race as my single. In the ones including the Classic I will either play Bernardini and Invasor and go deep in the other two races or go with Invasor, Sun King, David Junior, and one or two others and go short in the other two races.

I agree Miraja.....
 

At this point, I may play some singles, and even as much as I love Bernardini in the Classic, feeling comfortable about no singles. I feel like we're going to see a bunch of wide open races. I do want to see tomorrow's draw, see where the speed is slotted. I wish everyone who are playing singles good luck.

yup, post position draw is key in a couple of the races. outside is a toss in a couple.

question.....
 

Anyone know if the draw will be broadcast live on Espn? Maybe 5pm? I been working and have only seen tapes of the works show on tvg.

guy we know keeps reminding my husband that he wants some longshots from me--i keep saying hell, they haven't drawn yet--gimme time here!

Ouija Board is the best single, IMO. Wait A While is really the only one that scares me unless OB doesn't show, and she's showed almost everytime against the best turf horses around the world in open company. Besides, I really don't think that field is very strong top to bottom.

yeah i get that.....but i still don't get why finishing second in the jcgc would somehow prevent him from finishing second in the bcc.
that is completely illogical.....get it?

i agree thunder, i think ouija board is better than these, and this will be her 'easiest' race all year. lightest impost, no guys in the field.

Oujia Board
Fleet Indian
Henny Hughes