Giacomo = No chance
 

Pretty obvious right?
But I hope that some people (although of course nobody on this board) are foolish enough to put some money on this horse in the classic. Everyone knows he is overmatched but some fools will probably take this approach:
Giacomo + 10f + CD + large crowd + possible fast pace + huge price = BIG PAYDAY.
Of course what these people are missing is that even if Giacomo does run the same race he ran in the Derby......he will be no better than sixth or seventh. He is not running against High Fly and Closing Argument this time.
This horse is to me.....the biggest toss in the race. I am not a superfecta player but even if I was.....this horse would not get $1 from me. No matter what the pace scenario turns out to be.....he will NOT hit the board.

agreed, very little chance for this horse to hit the board !!! pace will be slow in my opinion.. so there goes Giacomo's chances..he get gets no love form me either.

Posts against one particular horse are the most useless on the board.

I don't see a KY Derby-like pace that sets up for him.

Remember when Andy Beyer said Azeri wouldn't finish in the top half of the field? Managed a pretty respectable 5th against Ghostzapper and co. when her 2004 self was most definitely not peak form and Beyer snacked on some public crow. I'm not saying Giacomo's gonna nail it but I don't kick the underdog to feel better about myself.

Obviously many people also threw out Giacomo in the Derby. I heard many a crack that he shouldn't even be in the race and that it was pure Derby fever that got him entered. This is one situation where rather than put a horse very few people are touting down, then going 'I told you so' it's better to pick a horse lots of people expect to do well and be right when they bomb or a horse people hate and you go 'watch it, he'll win.' If you kick him and he's scraping the barrel at the end, where's the prize? It's like telling a kid who's not doing well in a class but he tries really hard and sometimes aces a quiz that he's going to flunk the final exam. Yeah I guess everybody wins if he fails...er..maybe not. If people include him and he doesn't reward them then goody for you, you'll end up with more money one would think. I'd let them root for Giacomo all they want.

I did not mean it as a post "against one particular horse." I like Giacomo.
I just think there will be some people who will like his chances because of the supposed similarities between this race and the Derby and.....I think they are wrong.

True about Super Frolic.....but I have not read anything on this board that suggested that he might have a chance. I did however read this about Giacomo:

You throw him a fat pitch,and he can indeed hit it out.The chances are poor that he sees the pitch he wants.

exactly.
its easy to say who will not win.
tell me who will win.

or at least if you are going to start a thread about taking a stand against a horse, start one about a favorite or short priced horse you are taking a stand against.

Im hoping nobody is going to start a thread about how Super Frolic can not win either.

no offense to the author of the thread, just to the idea behind it.


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btw Scuds,
have you talked to our friend Kent lately?
meet him in the circle for lunch or have you seen him at the dentist lately?

I hope he is ok.

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None taken. As for who will win......I have no clue!!!! Personally I would not mind an entire thread about each of the horses in a big race like the classic. What if someone did want to start a thread that was all about Super Frolic's chances? What would be wrong with that? Maybe there are people who would argue that he has a chance to hit the board, and want to make their case and argue with the rest of us. That would be fine with me.
And by the way, I didn't just say that he would not win....I said he would not hit the board. Still not a tremendously bold statement I know.....but slightly bolder than you gave me credit for.

By the way repent......great signature.

thanks man.
and i was just agreeing with scuds statement b/c we get alot of threads about who will not win.
my comments were not really specific to anything you typed.

agree, i just dont see Giacomo as having done anything to suggest that he can be competitive in a race like this.
he has no shot.

Bernardini is going to have to fall on his face to lose,
unless David Junior moves way up on dirt.
thats the only scenario I can see where Bernardini could be in a serious fight.
GW could move up 10 lengths on dirt and it still would not put him on Bernardini's level.
best of luck to you in this race.
Im staying away from it except in the late pick 4 and I will single Bernardini in the pick 6 most likely.


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So,you started a thread to warn people that a 30/1-40/1 shot isn't gunna hit the board(no matter the pace.)Isn't that right? Do you really want everybody to start a thread about the longshots they don't think will hit the board?

Anyways,no 'Pent,haven't seen anything written by the lune you mentioned,but I don't check the old board.

I can see it all now "...and Bernardini stumbles leaving the gate...he went right down on his nose..." People keep saying stuff like that and just watch it actually happen. If you have a dream about Castellano falling off whatever you do don't breathe a word to the jock for pete's sake. We all saw what happened to Shoemaker.

I have already stated that I will quit gambling for 3 years if Giacomo wins the BC....I like gambling so I am not going to make one of those ridiculous ones, but if he does win, not a penny will go through any type of windows until BC 2009.....

lol,
maybe.

but this is such an athletic horse that it does not matter.
stumbling, bad break, whatever...............he would seriously have to fall down to compromise his chances of winning.
he could break dead last and it would not concern me one bit.

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hes is pretty much one of the top 5 overmatched horses of the day.
you gambling future is safe. no worries.

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Thanks Repent, after today, i would rather have him win the thing under wraps

lol,
well at least you are not jerry who lost 5K or whatever on Cambiocorsa.lol


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I probably should not talk though.
Im the guy who loaded up on Grey Swallow last night.
I still think he is plodding down the final furlong as I type this 20 hours after the race went off.

I hope he was injured b/c that was just a painfully slow performace.


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He is full of it, he didn't lose 5k on that rat....

I hope you are right.


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heres my take, if you dont like the thread dont post, start your own!!! btw Lava Man is your winner.

ok,
I can still have an opinion on the subject without totally agreeing with the logic behind the initial post of the thread.

and how the hell can you think lava man will win the BCC with the handle that you use?
did you pick that handle without actually watching the horse run?


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actually, i had a vision lol, well I want Bernardini to win (or Perfect Drift). But my Tivo begs to differ. The more I watch Lava, the clearer it gets.. this horse can dig when it counts. This observation is w/o looking at compartive stats or number.. just visuals.

If Hurricane Run were to scratch,
I would think Lava Man would have a better chance of winning in the BC Turf.
thats how little of a chance I give him in the BC Classic.

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Well.....yeah sort of.
Basically I just wanted to start a thread to see if there were a lot of people who agreed with avance2000 about giacomo being an "interesting" horse in the race. I suppose I could have started the thread by just asking "What do people think about Giacomo's chances?" but I just figured I would jump right in with my opinion. As for the other longshots, if people wanted to start threads that became discussions about the horse's chances....I really would not have a problem with it. If I was interested........I would read it and if I was not......I wouldn't.
And as I said before....I really would not mind if there was a thread about every horse in the classic. I think it might help people cap the race.

Anyway scuds, I am sorry that expressing my opinion about a Kentucky Derby winner's chances in the BCC pissed you off so much. That was not my intention.

I agree 100% repent, I agree that he would have a huge shot in the turf, or even the Mile....I will be surprised if he hits the board in the BCC

You might want to watch his races outside of Cali.
And dude, your NAME is Bernardini!!!! How can you pick against him?

good gosh,
please no Brother Derek, Suave, or Super Frolic threads.

I would not have picked BroDerek to win any of those Cal Cup races today, much less the BCC.


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I agree too. He has had a great year, and if the race was at Hollywood Park he might have a legitimate chance. As it stands....I say he finishes off the board......but in front of Giacomo.

See I think a thread like that would be fun. Who will finish first among those horses? How many lengths will they be defeated by? I say let's debate mediocrity!!!!!!

you know,
I was wondering about that when watching a thing on HRTV called Pursuit of the Cup.
they were going over the contenders and I was thinking, what the hell is so tough about the BC Turf?
you take out Hurricane Run(who i am still not convinced is going to show up) and all you have is Scorpion(who has run one time in the last year), a failed European(Cacique) and English Channel.
not bad, but nothing that Lava Man could not be competitive against.
I guess they just want a shot at the bigger purse money.
thats understandable, but I dont think he hits the board either.


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unfortunately if the race was at Hollywood Park,
I think Ball Four or Asi Siempre would probably win the freaking BC Classic.
they no longer have a dirt main track.


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Given Hurricane Run's recent form...I think the 2 horses to beat in that race are EC and Cacique. Given that....wouldn't Lava Man have a better chance of trying to pull off what The Tin Man did to those two, than with whatever strategy they employ with him in the classic?

Oh.....forgot about that.....poly is spreading like the plague.....I can't keep track of where it has already struck.

who do I want and who do I think will win are two different questions..
I love Dini !!! and I want him to win...and the rest will have to wait till 11/04

disagree about your take on HR,
but yes, you are right about Lava Man.

he is 2x the turf horse the tin man ever will be.
now, I dont expect that any horse will be able to do what the Tin Man did in the Arl Million(get away with the slowest of fractions) in the BC, but I do think Lava Man would be very competitive in the BC Turf against the 2 east coast turf stars previously mentioned.


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i can think of horses i would toss before i would throw out giacomo--believe it or not, hey scuds?! at any rate, you never know with this guy. if he has the right pace, he could win it. but suit yourself.