Thunder Snow, and the forgotten BEST prep race
 

For those who have not seen this seasons' best derby prep , I urge you to view the UAE derby..run on Saturday morning about a month back at 9 AM CST

This was the best prep race of the year and show Thunder Snow, just winning by a nose over the Japanese champion. Epicharis, a grandson of Sunday Silence through a Sadlers Wells dam...is not a bad pony..but yet the Goldophin charge ran him down...twice in the lane...9.5 F

the replay is down the page at article bottum...wow talk about a good film..great action camera work


https://www.paulickreport.com/news/t...ris-uae-derby/

Best prep because you say so? How about the 3rd place finisher? He stinks. Ill take the Wood and Fla Derby.

Was a good horse race to watch but horse is way too slow in my opinion to be a factor in derby

Not on any ticket I could remotely play. I'd take Girvin with a quarter crack over him (I'm not playing him either).

I sort of have it narrowed down to six horses(quite frankly that's not a good thing)and Thunder Snow is one of them.
He's a classy horse,with nothing but good races on his resume.
But........the UAE horses just haven't fired........ever.
At 20-1 I'm kind of priced in on him.
I'll put him on the DD/P-3/P-4........every horse I use on those tickets will be over 15-1.

it is true the foreign colts do not due well at Cd in May. But i think thunder snow might be ITM...what was his rag or tgraph for that race ?

6 is a lot, no? I got 3 that ill end all multis with. I want no one else.

Probably going to affect a lot of opinions if this bullsh.it doesn't change:

I believe his RGZ number came back "high 8"/9........which isn't good.

Correct,6 is way too many.
I promise you everybody on this board has a better read on this race than I do.
Sometimes you just have to know when you can't figure out a race.
But since the Derby is 20 horses and the most exciting two minutes in sports,I'll dive right in.
Plus......I enjoy high risk/high reward wagering,if I actually fell into a ticket it would hold me over for quite awhile.
The only somewhat positive thing I can say about my final leg of the multi's is the lowest price horse on those tickets will be the seventh choice or so.

If you ask my 3, ill tell you.

Fire away.....

J Boys Echo, Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry.

The first two I see like this:
AD: I just don't think they can afford to take a hold of him,he looks speed crazy.
He might have a healthy lead turning for home..........kind of a Bodemeister deal.
JBE: Dale Romans @ CD........nuff said.
IWC: I wasn't big on him,but when RBE posted the weather call for the weekend that changed things.
IWC pedigree sure seems mud friendly,Curlin on top/Polish Navy on the bottom.
If the track does come up soupy,I will drop Irap and add IWC.

When has Always Dreaming been speed crazy? He sat comfortably in the Florida Derby.

I Don't like any of those guys......doesn't make you a winner, but certainly increases your chances of winning.

Always Dreaming has been a head case ever since he got there. TAP is trying everything in the book to get him to settle & rate to no avail thus far. I predict he's going to freak the fuk out in front of that crowd, break completely unrateable (especially with an inside draw) and be cooked after 7/8ths.

IRC is the only one of your 3 I'm considering.

He never has,but he hit Kentucky and now he thinks he's Chinook Pass.
Not sure why.

Here's the video of Master Plan gaining on Tapwrit in the Pulpit 75 k in the slop at Gulfstream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYsTQ3HOZxA

Master Plan has the only Bris Late Pace ratings that past Derby winners most often had prior to the race, a 110 Bris Late Pace. Master Plan seems to have accomplished this his last three races in a row. Master Paln looks okay against Tapwrit, therefore maybe Thunder Snow did beat a good dirt horse in the U.A.E. Derby. Lancaster Bomber, 4th place in the race, had been the Juvenile Turf runner up at the Breeders Cup

If we get mud, how can we get a mudfoot report?

Master Plan would mop these losers in the rain:D

Wow, you really went old school with that one.

Thunder Snow winning the Criterium International on turf: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcDb1Ywuh5Y

2000 Guineas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWa0X1qdK7Y

Thunder Snow is 2 for 2 on dirt, both at Dubai. Is this the same Dubai track that was made to be similar to Churchill Downs?

I don't know. I really want to like him and make him a key. But everywhere I look, people I respect immensely consider him an auto-toss because he's coming from overseas.

The figure making on the DWC day seems to have been tough due to track conditions that were changing and difficult to quantify. That said, on raw time, he ran about as fast as Arrogate, did he not? All the figures seem to be just slightly too tethered to Master Plan. He has obvious questions, not the least of which is the challenging travel/training pattern but he looks fast and in a field full of question marks, I am giving him a serious look.

TGraph for Thunder Snow:

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com...hundersnow.pdf

When I started hanging out at the track,he was the first "quick" horse I knew about.
Still the quickest in my book.

Thoro-graph seems to like your guy quite a bit,he really improved off of his previous.
They have his most recent number tied for the best.........without looking,can you guess which horse tied him for the best last race number ?

Chinook Pass is one of those obscure and forgotten horses from the past who should be remembered more. He was awesome.

[quote=KidCruz;1090169]I don't know. I really want to like him and make him a key. But everywhere I look, people I respect immensely consider him an auto-toss because he's coming from overseas.




Pretty much the same view i have. I was hoping to see more people at least giving him a shot and I would be all in. So it does scare me seeing so many auto-tosses for sure. Having said that I won't let anyone talk me off of him. It will just cost me more to use him with others I like (Classic Empire, IWC, McCracken)

Looking forward to hearing how he looks on the track and his post.

Careful stating that TG likes him.

Also, the statement isn't true. Assuming you're talking about Always Dreaming he does not have the fastest last race from TG. IWC does. 2.25 faster than FL Derby winner.

You're correct about IWC,he does have the best last race number.
I didn't notice the neg on the side of his number.........my own fault for not enlarging the screen.
You didn't understand my statement about AD.
When I said "like" referencing Thoro-graph,I meant it as a verb(in the past tense if you will) describing his previous races.........I was specifically speaking of his last number,and also his improvement from his race two back to his most recent.
I wasn't saying Thoro-graph was touting AD in the Derby.
Good luck on Saturday....

well...the #2 post isn't going to help.

I dont like the choice of jockey either, I am hoping Christophe Soumillon is aggressive with him out of the gate to gain position from that post.

nice video on TS in the criterium.
That colt lays his body down in every effort

pair of 3's...that's not too shabby.

from post 2, they can have him stay back mid pack, and then run for the roses around the final turn. dog fights in the stretch are not foreign to Thunder snow

Other positives: Owns a victory on an off-track and will be first-time lasix on Saturday.

:)

Hasnt the medical community done countless studies to debunk Lasix as a medication that is a performance enhancing? Just Kidding

I have converted T Snows' Timeforms to beyers and found a perplexing thing.
if I convert subtracting 14 points he is not ITM in my analysis, but if I convert subtracting 13 points he is ITM...??sheesh ??

And first time lasix can be a great enhancement or a big let down depending upon how the colt takes to it.

This is a confusing race as a lot of the favs had had a beyer string that is mis-shapened by their goofy flops...IWC is an example..by far the fastest beyer string if you discount his 63 in the FOY, with 2 101 beyers in a row. Same thing with AD he has a bad alloawance number, and classic empire beyers look dismal as a string.