2.24-26 (CD): Derby Future (Pool 3); Oaks Future (Lone Pool)
 

KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER ~ POOL 3

1. Always Dreaming* 50-1
2. American Anthem 15-1
3. Battalion Runner 20-1
4. Classic Empire 8-1
5. El Areeb 20-1
6. Epicharis (Jpn)* 30-1

7. Gormley 15-1
8. Guest Suite (g) 50-1
9. Gunnevera 20-1
10. Iliad* (r) 15-1
11. Irish War Cry 12-1
12. Local Hero* 50-1

13. Malagacy 30-1
14. Mastery 10-1
15. McCraken 8-1
16. Mo Town 15-1
17. One Liner* 15-1
18. Petrov 30-1

19. Practical Joke 20-1
20. Royal Mo* 15-1
21. State of Honor 50-1
22. Tapwrit* 20-1
23. Wild Shot 50-1
24. Mutuel Field/All Others 4-1

Asterisks are for the 7 newbies, led by Iliad, One Liner, and Royal Mo, all at 15-1.

KENTUCKY OAKS FUTURE WAGER ~ LONE POOL

1. Abel Tasman 10-1
2. Champagne Room 20-1
3. Chanel’s Legacy 50-1
4. Daddys Lil Darling 50-1
5. Delphinia 30-1
6. Elate 30-1

7. Farrell 15-1
8. Ghalia 30-1
9. It Tiz Well 12-1
10. Jenda’s Agenda 30-1
11. Lockdown 30-1
12. Miss Sky Warrior 30-1

13. Mopotism 20-1
14. My Sweet Stella 50-1
15. Nonna Bella 50-1
16. Noted and Quoted 50-1
17. Pretty City Dancer 20-1
18. Selcourt 30-1

19. Shane’s Girlfriend 15-1
20. Tapa Tapa Tapa 30-1
21. Tequilita 50-1
22. Unique Bella 8-5
23. Valadorna 12-1
24. Mutuel Field/All Others 8-1

Odds going into last day...with $136K in win pool.

Horse, ML, SunMornOdds
1. Always Dreaming* 50-1, 38-1
2. American Anthem 15-1, 16-1
3. Battalion Runner 20-1, 52-1
4. Classic Empire 8-1, 8-1
5. El Areeb 20-1, 18-1
6. Epicharis (Jpn)* 30-1, 46-1

7. Gormley 15-1, 16-1
8. Guest Suite (g) 50-1, 61-1
9. Gunnevera 20-1, 19-1
10. Iliad* (r) 15-1, 33-1
11. Irish War Cry 12-1, 7-1
12. Local Hero* 50-1, 54-1

13. Malagacy 30-1, 46-1
14. Mastery 10-1, 7-1
15. McCraken 8-1, 5-1
16. Mo Town 15-1, 16-1
17. One Liner* 15-1, 14-1
18. Petrov 30-1, 82-1

19. Practical Joke 20-1, 22-1
20. Royal Mo* 15-1, 36-1
21. State of Honor 50-1, 230-1
22. Tapwrit* 20-1, 24-1
23. Wild Shot 50-1, 156-1
24. Mutuel Field/All Others 4-1, 7-1

Classic Empire at single digits? Is this class that bad? Only one I'd want out of these is One Liner.

CLOSES 6PM: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...r/derby-pool-3

OAKS CLOSES 6:30: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...ager/oaks-pool

CLOSING KDFW ODDS

Always Dreaming 50/1 40
American Anthem 15/1 16
Battalion Runner 20/1 35
Classic Empire 8/1 11
El Areeb 20/1 20
Epicharis (JPN) 30/1 40

Gormley 15/1 18
Guest Suite 50/1 60
Gunnevera 20/1 21
Iliad 15/1 24
Irish War Cry 12/1 7
Local Hero 50/1 70

Malagacy 30/1 50
Mastery 10/1 8
McCraken 8/1 6
Mo Town 15/1 25
One Liner 15/1 12
Petrov 30/1 70

Practical Joke 20/1 19
Royal Mo 15/1 35
State of Honor 50/1 99
Tapwrit 20/1 22
Wild Shot 50/1 99
A/Other 3yo's 4/1 5

KDFW Pool 3 Will-Pays:

1 Always Dreaming* 42-1 $86.40
2 American Anthem 16-1 $34.60
3 Battalion Runner 34-1 $70.60
4 Classic Empire 11-1 $24.40
5 El Areeb 20-1 $42.40
6 Epicharis (Jpn)* 41-1 $84.80
7 Gormley 18-1 $39.00
8 Guest Suite (g) 60-1 $123.40
9 Gunnevera 22-1 $46.00
10 Iliad* (r) 24-1 $51.40
11 Irish War Cry 7-1 $16.80
12 Local Hero* 72-1 $147.80
13 Malagacy 53-1 $109.20
14 Mastery 8-1 $18.40
15 McCraken 6-1 $15.60
16 Mo Town 27-1 $57.20
17 One Liner* 12-1 $26.60
18 Petrov 73-1 $148.80
19 Practical Joke 19-1 $40.40
20 Royal Mo* 36-1 $74.00
21 State of Honor 198-1 $399.40
22 Tapwrit* 22-1 $46.40
23 Wild Shot 120-1 $242.80
24 All Others 5-1 $12.40

from: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...l-Pays_._2.pdf

El Areeb seems far and away the best value at 20-1. Whether or not you particularly like him in the Derby (I personally think he's legit), the 3YO competition in New York is such that two more blowout wins in the Gotham and the Wood are a reasonable possibility. If that happens, he'll be 6-1 tops in the Derby.

First of all, he likely be higher than 6:1, but even if he is, if he's 1:2 in the Gotham and even money in the Wood ( unlikely but I'll give it to you ), he's less than 5% to win the Derby.....or 20:1. An awful lot of "ifs" to get there.

I get it, they're all bad value, but his is not special. My guess is he's about 25% at best to win both the Gotham and Wood, and then about 12:1 in the Derby...which makes him about 50:1 to win the Derby....and that's in a best case scenario.

I completely disagree with your assessment.

OK, can you do the math for me to defend your side?

You know this, but there's no empirical formula here on either side, it's just rough forecasting based on circumstances and opinion. The point of the future wager is to get significantly better odds than you think are likely on Derby day. I think El Areeb has a reasonable chance to win his next two preps convincingly, in which case he'll likely be a third of his future odds or less in the Derby. If you think he has a 2% chance to win the Derby, I just disagree.

I agree with you that future wagers in general are a bad bet, but this stuck out to me as one that may not be, considering my positive opinion of the horse and the favorable circumstances surrounding his path to the Derby.

Without actually doing the math, this "opinion" can't really be defended. It's really a math equation...and nothing else.

The odds of him winning both the remaining NY preps "easily" enough for him to be 6:1, or 14%, in the Derby are VERY high. High enough, in fact, that 50:1 is likely an underlay. Even an optimistic 50% in the Gotham and 30% in the Wood, and those are very optimistic, make him 50:1 in the Derby. Those are not the chances of him winning the preps, they are the chances of him winning them impressively enough for him to be a so far decidedly unrealistic 6:1 in the Derby.

Stop it. This is all speculation and estimation on your part, just like it is for me. Your 50-1 number for the Derby is totally arbitrary and I reject it. I think he has a good chance to be 6-1 in the Derby and I don't see a reasonable scenario where he's more than 20-1. I could obviously be wrong, but that's the downside of having an opinion. But I look forward to you scribbling math equations on a chalkboard on Talking Horses going forward instead of the current method of roughly discussing and entertaining competing opinions.

I am giving you numbers, while you are saying there is a "good chance," yet you are saying my thoughts are arbitrary.

This is actually a good discussion. You can't say you think some odds, any odds, are reasonable, without at least thinking it through mathematically.

Stop it? Seriously? That's a response to a contrary side to an argument? Then you make the Talking Horses comment? You're much better than this.

By the way.....there is a flaw in my argument that gives you a little more leeway.

Handicapping horses is not empirical math. You know this. You're being purposefully pedantic. It's about finding your estimation of relative value in a certain pool. If there were a parlay Gotham/Wood/Derby bet, you may be right that that would be better value than the future bet. But relative to the other future propositions, I think El Areeb is good value.

Oh empirical one.....
 

Can you give an example of where he was purposefully pedantic ?

Understanding whether or not 20:1 in the future pool is a fair price, is, in fact, math.

Stop telling me what I am being. It's silly.

Well, seeing as you've got Alabama Shakes on your side now, I see resistance is futile.

I'd love to hear whose future odds you think are better value than El Areeb's.

Alabama shakes may be on his side, but Alabama Stakes is not. I'm just trying to learn better vocabulary to try to keep up and understand all the big words that Byk throws around.
It does seem amusing that he would say anything negative about a hoss taking the NYRA path.
Back to your penultimate post....examples of purposefully pedantic you alliterative Bastid

That was funny:-)

They all suck! But I don't think that was your original point.

A similar price on Practical Joke is probably slightly better value. Isn't 11:1 on Classic Empire better theoretical value?

My original point was that I thought he was the best value of the pool, not that future wagers in general are particularly good bets.

I'd have to see Practical Joke run a race as a 3YO first, and the foot issue for Classic Empire makes him impossible to back with any confidence IMO.

I'm not betting either one, and have zero confidence in Classic Empire, but he could EASILY be the favorite, and I think you can make a better case that he is value at 11:1 than your horse at 20:1.

I grabbed petrov and Irish in pool 2 some mastery in pool 3..all free bets from.local casino sooooo wtf

The two horses I'm most impressed with in this crop are that Oscar horse that won the BCJT and Unique Bella. Too bad neither are aiming for the race.

Of the ones on the future list, I like American Anthem, but his odds suck.

Oh well.

Maybe they’re both right. This is clearly a math problem, as BTW said. But there IS going to be a lot of estimation and speculation involved, as Ateam maintains.

Even so, it’s useful to put numbers on a scenario that leads to Ateam's contension that “El Areeb seems far and away the best value at 20-1. Whether or not you particularly like him in the Derby (I personally think he's legit), the 3YO competition in New York is such that two more blowout wins in the Gotham and the Wood are a reasonable possibility. If that happens, he'll be 6-1 tops in the Derby.”

So, Ateam wasn’t insisting that 20-1 is in itself a good bet. I think he was saying that 20-1 looks good compared to a likely 6-1 in the Derby. To see if that’s true, what we want to know is the expected value (ie, the mean value) of EA’s Derby day odds.

First, assume EA does start in the Derby, which is by no means certain. We can come back to that.

For the sake of argument, BTW was willing to give El Areeb a 50% chance of a blowout win in the Gotham and a 30% chance of a blowout win in the Wood. The chance of 2 blow outs is 50% x 30% = 15%. Ateam said that would lead to “6-1 tops”, so let’s say 5-1. So that's a 15% chance at 5-1. What about the other 85% of the time?

What’s the chance that EA wins both races, but not all that emphatically? Let's give that a (IMO very generous) 15% chance. What would his odds be in that case? I’m guessing 8-1.

That still leaves 70% of situations to deal with. Let’s say EA finishing in the top 3 of both races (but not winning both) would occur 50% of the time, and leave EA at about 20-1 in the Derby. And let’s say the remaining 20% of the time that he starts in the Derby, it’s off performances in the Gotham and Wood that are so uninspiring that EA is 40-1 on Derby Day.

His average odds (expected value) then would be:
(15% x 5-1) + (15% x 8-1) + (50% x 20-1) + (20% x 40-1) = 20-1.
So, under what I consider generous assumptions, El Areeb looks to have an average odds prospect of 20-1 in the Derby, assuming he starts.

Under those assumptions, there’s no apparent value in taking the Future Wager. And when we add in the not-insignificant chance that EA does not even start in the Derby, it makes the Future Wager bet on El Areeb considerably worse than waiting until Derby Day to make a bet.

Now, Ateam may disagree with the probabilities or odds I chose. I know they are crude estimates, but I thought the odds I used gave EA the benefit of the doubt. Ateam should be able to point to which odds or probabilities are out of whack, and show how, with his own estimate, the expected value on Derby Day is indeed lower than 20-1.

For example, Ateam might say that even with poor showings in the two preps, EA will be no worse than 30-1 (not 40-1, like I used). And that would lower the expected value of his Derby Day odds (if he starts) to 18-1. Other adjustments could bring it still lower, but I’ll be surprised if any reasonable scenario can get the expected value low enough to offset the risk that El Areeb doesn't even start in the Derby.

I am very interested in ILIAD, if he can get 10 f, watch out,the other two I would consider are one liner and Gunnevera, Don't know about health issues McCracken and classic empire, if healthy these two must be considered,right now these are my top 5 , can't wait to see ILIAD in Saturday's race at Santa Anita, he reminds me of Goldencents a little, GOD BLESS EVERY One

Iliad is a half-brother to a multiple stakes winner who routinely won or placed in stakes between 10f and 14f. If he can ration his speed a bit more, perhaps some of this stamina will be displayed in subsequent starts.

Battalion Runner might be OK. IMO he could be Todd's best horse since Outwork. I think Romans horse from Saturday is better then a lot of people think. I see a lot of internet guys comparing him to other Romans plodders. I think he is more then that. Don't get me wrong he got a dream trip/setup Saturday, but he still finished. The race before he got a horrible wide trip and still ran well.
Irish War Cry ran to bad to be true. He is better then that. Chads horse from that race I thought ran huge first off the layoff. He made that huge move and couldn't sustain it. He might have distance limitations though.
Honestly no one blows me away in this crop yet. I'm not even a fan of Mastery. Maybe American Anthem?
Who can you have confidence in? 2 of the top horses are hurt or have minor issues. Then 2 horse out of the next tier lost badly this weekend. Not a fan of Girvin at all. Who does that leave you with? Oh yea and my horse Mo Town skipped races in NY that he was supposed to be pointing to and then ran like ****. Who knows....

If a horse gets taken from Bob and wins the Derby it will be the greatest injustice in the history of the sport.

Iliad winning the Derby several months removed from Baffert's barn would be nothing compared to War Emblem winning the 2002 Derby after being transferred to Baffert's barn a couple of weeks before the race.

Why?

Mastery looks ready to roll this weekend!

The San Felipe and the Tampa Bay Derby are going to be huge - Tapwrit looks to me like TAP's best prospect thus far - expect a huge effort Saturday. Exciting weekend.

Agree Dan.

Granted the Tampa Bay Derby appears to be a dreadful race, so maybe Tapwrit can win, but what about him seems good beyond possibly being able to win a weak race?

Connections?
Pedigree?
Price?

I like Hennings horse.