Weekend Stakes Beyers
 

PRX Pennsylvania Derby (G2): Connect 103 (Curlin) C. Brown/J. Castellano
PRX Cotillion S (G1): Songbird 99 (Medaglia d'Oro) J. Hollendorfer/M. Smith
PRX Gallant Bob S (G3): Noholdingback Bear 101 (Put It Back) M. De Paulo/E. Da Silva
PRX Pa Derby Champion S: Cyrus Alexander 86 (Medaglia d'Oro) J. Hollendorfer/R. Bejarano
PRX Alphabet Soup H : Granny's Kitten 92 (Kitten's Joy) M. Maker/F. Geroux

RP Oklahoma Derby (G3): Texas Chrome 96 (Grasshopper) J. Caldwell/C. McMahon
RP Remington Park Oaks: Unbridled Mo 93 (Uncle Mo) T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez
RP Governor's Cup S: Chocopologie 92 (Candy Ride-ARG) P. Devereux/C. Hernandez
RP David M. Vance Sprint S: Ivan Fallunovalot 94 (Valid Expectations) W. Howard/L. Wade
RP Remington Green S: Taghleeb 95 (Hard Spun) M. Maker/J. Rosario
RP Ricks Memorial S: Penguini 82 (Omega Code) C. Stuart/G. Franco
RP Kip Deville S: Cool Arrow 73 (Into Mischief) J. Sharp/J. Rosario
RP Flashy Lady S: Moment Is Right 85 (Medaglia d'Oro) S. Asmussen/F. Geroux
RP Red Earth S: Ibaka 87 (Uncle Abbie) W. Calhoun/C. McMahon
RP Bob Barry Memorial S: Gianna's Dream 81 (Twirling Candy) M. Maker/J. Rosario

WO Ontario Colleen S (G3): Caren 86 (Society's Chairman) M. De Paulo/J. Campbell
WO Durham Cup S (G3): Are You Kidding Me 101 (Run Away and Hide) R. Attfield/A. Garcia
WO Classy 'n Smart S: Sweater Weather 88 (Milwaukee Brew) R. Tiller/J. Bridgmohan
WO Kingarvie S: Jurojin 62 (Giant Gizmo) H. Ladouceur/L. Contreras

BEL Noble Damsel S (G3): Mrs McDougal 101 (Medaglia d'Oro) C. Brown/I. Ortiz
BEL John Hettinger S : Fourstar Crook 96 (Freud) C. Brown/J. Castellano
BEL Ashley T. Cole S: Kharafa 100 (Kitalpha) T. Hills/A. Gallardo

LRC Los Alamitos Derby S (G2): Accelerate 90 (Lookin At Lucky) J. Sadler/T. Baze

LRL Commonwealth Turf Cup S (G2): Blacktype-FR 101 (Dunkerque-FR) C. Clement/T. McCarthy
LRL Commonwealth Derby (G2): Deeply Undervalued 91 (Kitten's Joy) C. Brown/M. Franco
LRL Commonwealth Oaks (G3): My Impression 91 (Sky Mesa) C. McGaughey/J. Ortiz
LRL Punch Line S: Moon River 86 (Bluegrass Cat) B. Walsh/F. Lynch
LRL Oakley S: Rapid Rhythm 79 (Successful Appeal) M. Stidham/T. McCarthy
LRL Jamestown S: Lime House Louie 63 (Limehouse) F. Stites/G. Saez
LRL Bert Allen S: Rose Brier 85 (Mizzen Mast) J. Cibelli/T. McCarthy
LRL Brookmeade S: Skipalute 82 (Midnight Lute) J. Kimmel/J. Ortiz

CD Dogwood S: Mines and Magic 82 (Mineshaft) V. Oliver/R. Albarado

LAD A. L. (Red) Erwin S: Rock N Sake 75 (Half Ours) V. Vidrine/J. Melancon
LAD Elge Rasberry S: My Queen Olivia 72 (Half Ours) P. Mouton/J. Guzman

TDN Catlaunch S: Eightthehardway 70 (Parents' Reward) R. Vickers/L. Gonzalez

D oro horses everwhere

Interesting number for Songbird[99],so the lifetime 11 for 11(7 Grade 1's) winner still hasn't Beyered higher than Hit It Once More (102/New York Derby/Finger Lakes) this year. :zz:

And the 101 is probably a few points high to boot

And people defend her like she's this super horse.

It's not that it's just her competition are plugs. You can't will a horse to beat her, RHT. The crop is absolutely abysmal and it's unfair she gets criticized and doubted when there isn't a horse she's run against the past two races that is worth a bottle of piss.

Songbird's BSFs are comparable to Beholder's at 3. She only threw up a triple digit Beyer in her first start against older horses. Even now at 6, Beholder tends to register Beyers in the 90s while often winning in similar fashion to Songbird, often geared down.

As far as dominant 3yo fillies go, it would be interesting to see other champion 3yo filly BSFs in the recent past. Rachel Alexandra and Silverbulletday were clearly faster at 3 based on BSFs. They were also mere shadows of their former selves at 4. I think Banshee Breeze was faster. I don't think Sky Beauty consistently Beyered over 100, nor Blind Luck. Untapable threw up 2 big numbers in the Fair Grounds and Kentucky Oaks but was otherwise stuck in the high 90s the rest of her career.

I know you're one of the top figure makers in the game Freddy, but you might want to check with Nick on that number.

The 101 is a few points high in my opinion, but the 102 for Hit It Once More was proven quite clearly in every subsequent start for the field to be accurate.

And full disclosure, I made that FL figure.

I think comparing her with Rachel at this point is fruitless and off putting Songbird has earned better then to be compared with a filly she isn't. Rachel too date was in completely different league not because of Fig's but because of the competition he had beaten in fast races. Connects have done everything right, filly has been way better then her competition.
I don't think SB wins the Distaff, I think hitting the board would be a heck of an accomplishment.

Songbird's campaign has been extraordinary and I could really care what her figs have been other then for handicapping and betting. I haven't seen many better 3 year old fillies that's for dam sure, faster not necessarily better.

I was going to say Rachel is a "she" but it's "the current year" so maybe that changed.

Explain the last 4 words? How does that work?

What have you done!?

We all have seen fillies run bigger figs then SB best too date they arent better then she IMO

Icon Project would beat her 10/10 times at 9f and up.

I think Icon project was talented as well but be real I think she won 4 times and did she even race 10 times, bit of a laimo. I am not as smart as you I cant go to a filly's best race ever and expect her to run it 10 straight times in a row when she could only do it once or twice in her illustrious 10 race career when it was for real.. in fantasy hypothetical land were a laimo reproduces her single best effort 10 straight times MAYBE she beats Songbird. No Doubt Icon Projects was OK

Never mind she was a 4yo, both main track wins were on off tracks, and she strained a tendon in her first dirt start that ultimately led to her retirement before the season's end.

I'm not the expert you guys are but I have seen some horses over the years that go ballad out every time and others that do enough to win. I certainly won't say for a fact that Songbird would run faster if required to because we don't know. It's just my belief that if it was needed, she has more to offer. I stopped using Beyer numbers years ago so I couldn't tell how she compares on that level to others of the past. It's also clear that her competition is garbage and hasn't pushed her to have to run faster. Can't wait til the Distaff to get more answers. My money is on her to win.

These mysterious horses that run just fast enough to win are known as unicorns.

They don't exist outside of the minds of people that want horses they like to be faster than they actually are.

Ok. I wish I was allowed to debate or disagree with you but I learned my lesson before.

She's a flat out freak,nobody can get near her.
Every single time she runs.......the song remains the same.
She's plenty fast,there's no two ways around it.
There's a time and place for speed figs.......but the numbers aren't relevant with this Filly.
If the word fast is used as some kind of measuring stick with Songbird,then look no further than last years 2 Juvy dirt races on BC Saturday @ Keenland......Songbird ran 5 lengths faster than this years Kentucky Derby winner.
Keep an eye on Chad's nice Filly in the Beldame on Saturday......Go for Broke just ran a distant 2nd to Songbird,she might be decent at a price.

I love the victim card.

If you want to debate, give some evidence.

Can I debate ?
 

Oh

Who cares and why bother posting this? Your literally obsessed with Steve. Its stalker like.

Just bored, opening day at Santa and the boss releases the late pick 4. My other questions are answerable

I expected a lower number.

This thread could have been epic. Now it's just confusing as hell for anyone reading it for the first time.

The unicorn debate just needs to be kickstarted with some actual examples.

A fairly obvious and recent unicorn was Beholder in last year's Pacific Classic. She had 3 races under her belt, averaging a 98 Beyer while winning handily, then uncorks a 114 BSF romping home in her only 10f while facing males.

Was she "pushed" to run faster? Or is the figure itself a bit of a sham?

What about her race against Stellar Wind? That was the race, unlike the Pacific Classic you mentioned, where she actually needed to run faster ( I won't even use this year's Pacific Classic ). Interestingly enough, she is one of those supposed Unicorns, in that she has never ( save the 2015 Pacific Classic ) been particularly fast, and some of her fans foolishly said she only ran as fast as she had to.

But you know these supposed Unicorns don't really exist. You just want King Glorious to post more for your own perverse entertainment ( and mine as well ).

I find it very difficult to find these unicorns in the first place. Firstly, the horse has to be a fairly regular winner despite slow speed figures, and secondly it has to step up to the top level and then put up significantly higher figures. Most often, such horses turn out to be pumpkins and simply get exposed.

However, I found one horse who truly fits the Unicorn Model, running only with just enough to win in the majority of its races, and then posting career numbers in its toughest assignments.

That, you no doubt already realize, was Zenyatta, who breeched the 110+ mark in both her BC Classic efforts altering averaging 103 or so in her other races.

Of course, if she had only really been a unicorn she would have won the 2010 Classic by a horn, rather than lost by a head.

You'll never get those guys to admit they were wrong about ZENYATTA . They still think easy goer was better than Sunday Silence and that Alydar was better than Affirmed. When Songbird runs away in the distaff in fast time, they will be saying, well she only did it once.

Right. People always talk about these horses that only do what they have to in order to win...yet there are no examples ( except, as you pointed out, one that lost....who's big fig, by the way, was the result of a deep closer taking advantage of a monster pace that collapsed ).

I'll give you a good one...Bernardini. He was actually legitimately fast. But, he won many races so easily that people said he could go faster if he had to. Ultimately, he couldn't ( though his loss in the BC was also the result of a premature move into a fast pace ). He's like the anti-Zenyatta....he actually had a legitimate excuse for losing the BC Classic. He also ran a whole slew of fast races.

Back to chasing unicorns.

To be fair, losing to Blame, a second tier track stalwart, was pretty weak no matter how fast the Beyer was.

Neither could beat Criminal Type.

Songbird still has time to mature (e.g., California Chrome, Tepin), and be faster because of that, rather than not be challenged enough by her peers like some grade school prodigy having to take courses at UCLA to keep interested in schoolwork.

.

Why would you have them admit they are wrong when they aren't? You might as well have them admit to being five year old girls.

Zenyatta is the single most overrated horse I've seen in my thirtyish years watching.


Sunday Silence bested EG 3-1 but one of those (the Preakness) could easily have gone the other way. It is hardly definitive that either was better than the other. By the way, I'd much rather have PVal as a rider than Pat Day.


Historically speaking, Beholder is hardly one of the greats, so your scenario could easily happen. The Distaff is the race this year that I'd be least surprised to see a major upset in. I think the top runners in there are all vulnerable.

I thought you had a gf? :p


How is Stellar Wind vulnerable?

Curious revisit this subject. My opinion is that when asked to go all out, Songbird went faster than she ever has. Just wasn't good enough to beat Beholder.

Maybe the discussion before should have been not that they will run faster if asked but rather, if allowed to.