Brexit and the impact to US markets
 

The referendum to leave the EU and regain the sovereignty of the United Kingdom will be decided tomorrow. The typical suspects (Progressives, Liberals, Central Banks & Globalists) are in favor of remaining - The folks that are sick of the unfettered immigrant invasion (and subsequently shouldering the cost of it) are vowing to regain their rights to control their own borders and population (among the other prominent negative financial impacts of belonging) are in favor of leaving.

Most every report out of Brittan show this referendum as neck and neck; although the betting markets clearly are showing "Remain" has a distinct edge.

Question - how will this vote, either way, affect the US Equity markets in the near and mid term? One would think that a "Leave" victory would boost US currency markets at least initially as the EU would lose a great deal of it's assets.

Have not seen any real discussion about this, which is making me wonder what we are in for come Friday...

I'm expecting the results to run roughly the same pattern as the recent elections in Austria.

So yeah it's rigged. I'll be shocked if the vote favors leave.

John Major, Tony Blair, David Cameron and Richard Branson arm and arm with Bono, Billy Bragg, and Bob Geldoff....yeauuuup. The Fix is in.

They were still getting MP Jo Cox to the hospital and the media already had a receipt of the gun he purchased through the mail in 1999 and second-hand witnesses with non-British surnames were saying the guy screamed, "Britain First!"

They will vote to remain like good, scared little subjects.

>>>As Britain goes to the polls to vote on the EU Referendum, the odds on Brexit are plummeting – to a new low of 17 per cent at the time of writing. The Spectator’s zoomable live odds chart shows the speed of the decline. At 9am this morning it was 23pc, at 10.45am it was 19pc and by 11.30am it was 17pc. An hour later, 15pc.<<<

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06...w-17-per-cent/

We should have made a big Put bet on uvxy PUTS yesterday based upon what the betting markets were telling us.

:tro:

You were getting 3-1 Leave; 1-4 Remain yesterday....UltraVIX down 13% today


Free money if one were so inclined

If you're confident it's all rigged it was a safe play.

I'm not completely sold. Great opportunity for transfer of wealth and I don't really know the cast of characters. The ones I do know can be flighty.

Keep hope alive?:zz:

I let out a rebel yell at the Sunderland results. 61%!!!

Look at the pound.

Holy. ****.

The fix is in. They will "Remain".

Less than 1% edge to remain with a 1/3 of voting in... US Dow futures off 210 points after the Sunderland results....will be a late night for some. Predicting 4am eastern before a call. This is fascinating.

Need. More. Popcorn.

WEW LAD

Dow futures down over 3%. Leave looking strong.

Well I got that one wrong. Holy sh*t. This Dow futures plummeting... wait until real trading starts tomorrow morning... :(

Hysteria will subside. Life will go on. Liberal tears will increase.

Anybody else think of this old taxes story? The punch line (the rich guy leaving) seems a similar motivation for the UK. They are sick of paying and subsidizing many of the other members. France might exit too now they are saying.

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"Suppose that every day 10 men go to a restaurant for dinner. The bill for all ten comes to $100. If it was paid the way we pay our taxes, the first four men would pay nothing; the fifth would pay $1; the sixth would pay $3; the seventh $7; the eighth $12; the ninth $18. The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59."

The 10 men ate dinner in the restaurant every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement until the owner threw them a curve. "Since you are all such good customers," he said, "I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily meal by $20." Now dinner for the 10 only costs $80. The first four are unaffected. They still eat for free. Can you figure out how to divvy up the $20 savings among the remaining six so that everyone gets his fair share? The men realize that $20 divided by 6 is $3.33, but if they subtract that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would end up being paid to eat their meal.

The restaurant owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by roughly the same percentage, being sure to give each a break, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay. And so now the fifth man paid nothing, the sixth pitched in $2, the seventh paid $5, the eighth paid $9, the ninth paid $12, leaving the tenth man with a bill of $52 instead of $59.

Outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings. "I only got a dollar out of the $20," complained the sixth man, pointing to the tenth, "and he got $7!"

"Yeah, that's right," exclaimed the fifth man. "I only saved a dollar, too. It's unfair that he got seven times more than me!"

"That's true," shouted the seventh man. "Why should he get $7 back when I got only $2? The wealthy get all the breaks!"

"Wait a minute," yelled the first four men in unison. "We didn't get anything at all. The system exploits the poor."

Then, the nine men surrounded the tenth man (the richest one, paying the most) and beat him up. The next night the richest man didn't show up for dinner, so now the nine men sat down and ate without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They were $52 short!

"And that, boys, girls and college instructors, is how America's tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up at the table any more. There are lots of good restaurants in Switzerland and the Caribbean."

DAX futures are down 9 percent. Merkel deserves it.

Let the cannibalization of the globalists commence!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2CCq-tuMrY

Some cause for worry is the theory that some have, that all the socialist entanglements internationally, as in the case of the U.N., is just "blood money" that must be paid to forestall or delay a future war. That war might be nearer now.

And maybe that can't be avoided anyway, but the instability might really be huge in magnitude near term - though as you suggest in an earlier post, it might not last long.

And then there is this the utimate headfake. More I think about this it seems like Joey was right but in the wrong direction. The fix was in gambling markets painted to attract big money sheep into the financial markets for slaughter.

BBC: Five Reasons Brexit Could Signal Trump Winning the White House

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-...564808?SThisFB


OTOH, perhaps Brexit + Hillary elected = Texit

jms that's why I posted that ^^ before the polls closed.

A lot of people lost everything last night. I'll be checking the obits accordingly. :D

The US president used a keenly awaited press conference with David Cameron, held at the Foreign Office, to explain why he had the “temerity to weigh in” over the high-stakes British question in an intervention that delighted remain campaigners.

Obama argued that he had a right to respond to the claims of Brexit campaigners that Britain would easily be able to negotiate a fresh trade deal with the US. “They are voicing an opinion about what the United States is going to do, I figured you might want to hear from the president of the United States what I think the United States is going to do.

“And on that matter, for example, I think it’s fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement, but it’s not going to happen any time soon because our focus is in negotiating with a big bloc, the European Union, to get a trade agreement done”.

He added: “The UK is going to be in the back of the queue.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...or-trade-talks

The people of the United Kingdom have exercised the sacred right of all free peoples. They have declared their independence from the European Union and have voted to reassert control over their own politics, borders and economy. A Trump Administration pledges to strengthen our ties with a free and independent Britain, deepening our bonds in commerce, culture and mutual defense. The whole world is more peaceful and stable when our two countries – and our two peoples – are united together, as they will be under a Trump Administration.
~ Donald Trump

Great call unfortunately I didn't read between the lines to get that you meant someone was painting the tape in the betting markets

The ultimate trap bet. There was enough money on the table to end the EU a few years early. So the vote was probably legit.

If you're the ruling class you know the underlings will be on your side through thick and thin. The remain supporters are too thick to realize they're slaves. Especially the ones who dare to profit off a system they subconsciously believe is rigged.

Glorious day.

Great Call, Coach.

I don't think this dip is long lived, but for those who went with their gut it was a very profitable 24hrs... Oh, to have gone to cash and long UVXY yesterday (up 22% and growing) :(

I never understood why any successful country would want in on the EU. IT is like you taking responsibility for your brother in Law who just happens to be LoneStar.

My cousin was smart enough to get UVXY and NUGT into the close.

Great John Sayles film. :D PTI carry on.

Watch the markets end the day down 1.8% at most after a false remain rally.

It's really not that big of a story. The transition will take time. A flat summer on the market is the worst case scenario.

It seems insane. You are literally governed by Brussels, who has zero interest in your country's well being. And not just from a financial perspective (RE: trade agreements), but from a cultural / socio-economic perspective: the throngs of Eastern European migrants flooding into the county, with no skills or adaptable assets, and yet the country is completely handcuffed to do anything at all about it. Maddening.

I saw this the other day and felt that if this is in fact going on all over the country, then a Leave vote would be eminent:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-nccfHZLOM

This thread feels empty without the nerdy trail murkan socialist reply.

I'll fill in...

Speaking of u.s. markets..

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/...analysis-says/

"taken at face value"

*crinkle*












































*raging dumpster fire*

Epic.


https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/sta...30290294980608

:tro:

Indeed. :tro:

:tro:

Nigel is a legend.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4HQcLy7hao