So who is the "wiseguy" horse this year?
 

It is not as self-evident as some years, at least not to me.

Firing Line and Upstart are getting lots of buzz it seems.

Firing Line may well wind up being the speed of the speed; Danzig Moon is probably the most talented closer...It seems those two are getting more and more attention

eddie olczyk was talking about danzig moon this morning...i was like, shut up! :)

El Kabeir will go off at odds drastically underneath his fair value.

Upstart and Frosted

-bt-

I like Upstart and haven't heard anybody talking him up at all. Definitely think it's Firing Line or Danzig Moon.

I agree with those that said Firing Line for these reasons:

-2 close losses to Dortmund
-3x Derby winning jockey in Stevens
-decent post
-has the speed to be close to the lead

Whether he has the pedigree for a mile and a quarter is another question. His grandaddy Lion Heart was 2nd to Smarty Jones was he not, but I think his daddy, Line of David finished far back in his Derby, as I recall.

Mubtaahji ....... by far! :p

I like him too Joey..he will be on a ticket or two for me... Serling is on him too
check his thread, has a video link with him and M.Beer

Frosted

I have not heard a peep about anyone liking him at all.

How is Danzig Moon talented at all? No one likes Carpe Diem, me included. So how can we like Danzig Moon off a non threatening 2nd to him.
Feels to me like the wise guy horse is Firing Line. Serling gave him some love on the Derby preview video also.

El Kabier is very intriguing to me. It was obvious that his connections used the Wood to change his running style in anticipation of a pace meltdown. I hope to find room on my Super ticket for him. 2-3-4 would not surprise me.

Im not saying I like or dislike him. Just that I have not heard any buzz anywhere about him. If you like him thats a good thing.
Does Borel still get over bet in this race just because?

Dortmund is going to be radically lower odds than Firing Line on Saturday...so to me, that would make Dortmund more of the wise guy horse than Firing Line....but maybe it's just me :)

The second choice in the race can't be a wiseguy horse. A wiseguy horse is an 'outside the box' entrant who people talk themselves into to try to beat the favorites.

I guess I consider a wiseguy horse to be a horse that is bet down to odds that aren't really justified based on hype, etc...I agree that most of the time it's not one of the favorites....but IMO it can be...(Dialed In, Fresian Fire, Sweetnorthernsaint) God knows I've taken the bait many times over the years.

I'm hearing whispers about Upstart....

I think it will be Frosted. I think he'll go off
lower than Firing Line 8 or 9 -1

Agree about Danzig Moon. 30-1 ML, and have a feeling he'll go off lower that that. I don't get the love for him at all. He should be in the Pat Day Mile race, instead. I don't trust his trainer in major Grade 1 races in the U.S, either.

I do not believe there is a true "Wise Guy" horse in this Derby. This is a deep field and the winner of the Louisiana Derby, Florida Derby, and Wood are 15 to 1 and above. The speed figures of the top runners are pretty close . If there is a wise guy horse it is Danzig Moon but that is to hit the board which could happen.

I am still trying to figure out how this pace scenario is going to play out. Will AP go straight to the lead and not have enough stamina to hold on? Does AP have enough foundation to win this race? 10 furlongs with 20 runners is a demanding test. Is 2 easy preps against sub par Arkansas races enough? I will include him on my pick 4's but I am skeptical about him. He has never been tested in a race by serious racehorses.

I have a friend who likes him a lot. I just dont get it at all. You can make a case for almost anyone else, I dont get him. I would use the 2nd place horse from the Wood before Danzig Moon.:(

That horse will out run his odds and is a use as well. I don't get Materality at all. If there is a front end meltdown, he's the first causality, now that Stanford is out.

I think down the road he has a chance to be good, but this is asking a lot. 4th career start, bad draw and a front end style with lots of other speed. I agree, he's a toss for me.

Materiality breaking from post 3 could be the key horse in the Derby. A good break and up around the front could be a real early thorn in the side for American Pharoah. That is assuming AP cleard from post 17 and is up near the lead.

Or the 3rd place horse from the Wood.

Not sure what race he should be in but basically agree with this.

Easy toss for me too.