Derby Toss
 

Name one horse at relative low odds that you will not be including in any of your multi-race exotics or the top rung of trifecta/superfecta wagers.

For me, it's simple.




Carpe Diem

For me, it's never "simple," -- it takes a lot of effort for me to talk myself off a horse. But given what I have seen and read so far, it's Mubtaahij.

Far Right will be the lowest of the eight that have no chance to be on any ticket regardless of post position.

that's who i would exclude.

Materiality and Frosted...

I'm not saying they have no chance. It's just who I'm trying to beat when narrowing down tickets.

Frosted

it really hurts me when you say things like this Thomas

toss toss auto-toss

Tencendur
Ocho

not far behind

war story
bolo
firing line

-bt-

Far right and Carp diem will not be on my tickets. Horse with zero % shot to finish in top 4 would be Stanford

Upstart

El Kabeir

Stanford, but he's a longshot.

Highest price I will probably toss, though one of my partners will try to put me in a choke hold- Carpe Diem

Firing Line

Carpe Diem and Mubtaahij.

Me too.

Materiality & It'saknockout

+1

American Pharoah and Materiality

why the exclusiong of frosted, he's one of the ones i was leaning toward?

It's easy to say Frosted but I'll take Dortmund.

Materiality : not on a curse but questions on pace, foundation, never shipped out of FL, no slam dunk pedigree, slow come home in FL derby

Me too. Particularly if he draws inside - slow speed that can find all kinds of trouble in a 20 horse field.

I'm also now dead set against Mubtaahij.
Don't like the fact that they felt the need to keep him on poly without a real work over the track, and if the Meydan Thorograph numbers can be trusted, there is simply just too much not to like.

Why?

Materiality, Upstart, and Dortmund.

Why is everyone dumping carpe diem? Horse has been a pillar of consistency..im not crazy about pletchers derby stats but horse hasn't done anything wrong thus far.

well for me there is lots: He doesn't win often, he doesn't like kick back
he had surgery that only helps for a short time (not totally sure on that
as I'm not a vet) His jockey I'm not fond of because I find he rides most
horses like they're half Landuluce 1/2 Secretariat and I think he'll ride
em wide the whole race.

He'll probably win by 5 lol:)

FTFY

Oh, and he is slow. But so is International Star...though realistically, neither has really had to do much thus far. IS can at least close into reasonable fractions. CD needs to be close against real horses and has kind of shown his hand already. I'd expect (regardless of the hype) both to be 15-1 ish, and IS is the play there IMO

I think the pace scenario is going to be pretty interesting. I don't picture wicked fractions and a pace meltdown..think your going to need to be in the first or second tier at worst.

Hey Somer, is that psychic lady still in business? I always think about her every year, lol ...

You expect Carpe Diem to be 15-1???

-ish.

Yes.

Because of Mr Z. He was right with Dortmund and Firing Line in that race at Los Al and it's hard for me to shake the possibility that they aren't much better than he is and watching the way American Pharoah toyed with him makes me question how good they are. It's easier for me to toss them than to believe they are that good.

The Florida - NY route horses tend to be overbet (regardless of whether they have a chance or not) and typically horses like International Star and Carpe Diem are value - if you are talking about horses that have "done nothing wrong". They are both slow in terms of relative speed, but neither has worked a great deal to get here either. In my opinion, IS just has upside, where CD doesn't.

American Pharoah
Frosted
Dortmund
Materiality
Upstart

will be lower than Carpe Diem at post

Don't forget the influence Pletcher will have with the tote board. Many average Joes who won't know anything about the race besides the fact Pletcher is a top trainer and just blindly bet on him.

I understand this to some degree but I think that was the peak of Mr. Z. who has regressed steadily. I believe the other two have improved. I agree with Dan that Dortmond would greatly benefit from an outside post.

No way...I only wish I could get some action on that prediction :)

I'm not booking it - I haven't been right all year :D;)

have a great Derby, man

Only playing two horses on top, American Pharoah and Far Right. Going to hope to get lucky and play a nice oaks deeby souble wirh birdatthewire and far right.