Deepest Derby field in recent memory
 

So many awesome colts. Upstart, Materiality, Frosted, Dortmund, American Pharoah, Carpe Diem, etc. etc.

It's gonna be a great show and one of the best Derbies since I've started watching racing.

I hope Dortmund stays healthy and has a 4 year old campaign. What a physical specimen with a silky smooth gait. Not certain he'll win the Derby (trip) but I'd be surprised if he's not in the mix at the quarter pole.

Going to be one hell of a race to handicap too. Hope all stay on track to get there

Right?!?

Like, where do we even start? :D


Derby weekend can't get here quick enough!

I can make a case for alot this year with no faults usually its couple but its at least a handful this year

Kieran has to be feeling good about frosted. Hoperully they solved whatever ailed him after his last. Sure didnt quit today.

Had a Llewelyn Procedure done.

They fixed his upper lip because it wouldn't move when he spoke?

Looking forward to attending this year. Haven't gone since Pat Day brought Lil E Tee home in the race he had a devil of a time winning. A really slow Derby. 2:04 and change. Think I had Arazi.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mBQxqtsyTc

Was in the infield and it was too much fun sneaking liquor past the screeners. We had a cooler full of unopened cans of Hawaiian Punch and Grapefruit juice. Meanwhile, we poured 2 gallons of vodka over the ice. Looked like water. The screeners inspected all of the juices to make sure they weren't opened, but paid no attention to the liquid in the cooler. When got in we just poured all the juice right into the cooler and scooped up the grog. No way we were paying $8 for a beer or whatever it was. I was in my early 20s.

This year: Grandstand. But I will cast a sentimental eye on the infield.

O

Not really sure how deep it is. Think there is a big divide between the top 4 (Dortmund, American Pharoah, Carpe Diem and Firing Line) and everyone else. Mubtaahij being the wild card.

I know it's still a month out but I'm curious on what everyones take is on the potential pace. I keep hearing it's going to be this blistering pace but as I look at the potential lineup I don't see any runaway speed ala Songandaprayer, Spanish Chestnut or a blinkered Palace Malace. I think the pace for this group might be reasonable. Just curious what others think.

Going to be a long four weeks...

I love how the two horses who ran the fastest prep race of the season are lumped in with the "everyone else" that there's somehow a big gap back to. But yeah, Upstart, Materality and Frosted are total tosses. :zz:

Maybe not Upstart...

3yo MSW 6.5f 1:20.17
F&M MSW 7f 1:27.32
G3 (Commissioner) 9.5f 1:58.60
$100k Stakes (Pants on Fire) 7f 1:24.61
3yo MSW 8f 1:40.27
3yoF G2 8.5f 1:47.40

Yeah, it was just the Florida Derby where they staggered home...

:tro:

I can't remember the last Derby when this many of the top contenders had held their form. I'd also add Mubtaahij to the big gang at the top, but that may be wishful thinking. (Along with Materiality, Mubtaahij is my best chance to collect on the 'All Others' bets I've made in the Future Wager pools, bets that are looking a little weak right now.)

--Dunbar

5/2/15 (CD): Kentucky Derby (10f)

1. International Star (Maker/Mena)
2. Dortmund (Baffert/M. Garcia)
3. Carpe Diem (Pletcher/Velazquez)
4. Frosted (McLaighlin/Rosario)
5. Mubtaahij (de Kock/Soumillon)
6. Materiality (Pletcher/Castellano-?)
7. El Kabeir (Terranova/Lopez)
8. Upstart (Violette/J. Ortiz)
9. American Pharoah (Baffert/V. Espinoza) -- Arkansas Derby
10. Itsaknockout (Pletcher/Saez)
11. Firing Line (S. Callaghan/Stevens)
12. Danzig Moon (Casse/Leparoux)
13. War Story (Amoss/Talamo)
14. Tencendur (Weaver/)
--. Maftool (bin Suroor/Hanagan) **
15. One Lucky Dane (Baffert/Bejarano)
16. Ami's Flatter (J. Carroll/TBD)
17. Stanford (Pletcher/Geroux)
18. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Cassidy/S. Gonzalez)
-- Bolo (Gaines/Smith) **
19. Prospect Park (Sise/Desormeaux)
20. Conquest Typhoon (Casse/Bridgmohan)
--------------------------------------------------
21. Far Right (Moquett) -- Arkansas Derby
22. Keen Ice (Romans)
23. Daredevil (Pletcher)
24. Madefromlucky (Pletcher) -- Arkansas Derby
25. Tiz Shea D (Mott)

Right. was reading the other day about all they did after his last.

Couldn't agree more, let's hope they all make into the starting gate.

Agreed. It seems to me that there have been years in the past where a horse with International Star's connections, PPs, and pedigree would have been one of the top two or three choices. This year he probably won't be in the top six or seven.

And still with the ark derby upcoming. Been a great spring.

Looking at Lucky, anyone?

Looking at Lucky was the favorite at 6:1

That was the point. This year, he wouldn't be just as International Star will have longer odds.

No there haven't been. He is way too slow to have ever been one of the first three choices. Plus, there is absolutely nothing sexy about him whatsoever.

Deep in what sense? I think that's more a function of fields in recent memory being such low standard than anything else. In terms of Beyer figs, this anticipated field is not dissimilar to that of last year, which has been denounced as a weak crop. Some of these may turn out to be great in the future without having a chance to win the Derby, e.g. Materiality, if that's what you mean? There's a few of the more favoured runners that I would be very surprised to see win.

I can only see five of the horses with any points whatsoever having any chance of winning, but only really like one, maybe two out of that five. There's two more extreme longshots that can potentially join that list of five if they have positive showings that fit my criteria at Oaklawn this weekend. Subjectively, liking one or two of twenty to win doesn't make it "deep".

I'm beginning to wonder if you are PG1985 with a better vocabulary.

I'm not exactly sure who that member is (no offense to PG1985) but at least you didn't call me RockHardTen so I guess that must be a compliment.

Those two posts might be the best consecutive posts ever!

Be thankful that you can handicap horses far better then you can handicap DT Posters.

Just woke up and read this....started my day with a big smile...thank you!

It's all downhill from here.

Contest
 

that would be a blast. 20 posts / 20 posters, who remain anonymous,try to match one list with the other.

thanks for the laugh!

PG1985 IS RockHardTen!! new name after banishment

I fluke out winners. My handicapping methods sway from the norm and my racing opinions are generally derided.

Wasn't Friesan Fire the post time favorite in his race? Do you really think International Star looks that much worse than FF did coming out of Louisiana?

I think his point may be that the Cali shippers are going to be overbet based on their West Coast form vs. how IS got here, which, granted, the LA route has been the thinnest of them to date.

I like horses that aren't overtaxed in their last prep (the Upstart love is great - keep it up) and saw how easily IS managed the LA Derby field first hand. Will be very interested in how Far Right responds over fast dirt tomorrow, and hesitant to dismiss anyone based on "being way too slow" in preps where they weren't really stretched.

Wasn't Mena bordering a PETA onslaught from his 20+ whips (correct me if I'm wrong on that number) in the stretch?

IS wasn't really stretched in the LA Derby? I didn't see it that way.

My point wasn't that people should bet on International Star. My point was that in this Derby people probably won't bet on a horse like him because there appears to be a considerable number of very talented colts in the race. That hasn't always been the case in past years.

I think that's the way this horse needs to be ridden in the stretch, particularly when chasing crawling fractions.

His Risen Star was similar. He galloped out strongly in both efforts and really only needed to run the last 3/8ths or so. Additionally, he should definitely get a more favorable pace scenario in Kentucky and is a must use IMO. To toss the horse based on presumed slowness is a bit perplexing, is all.

Yes!

I don't think he seems slow. His Beyers are always improving and he has one of the highest BRIS Late Pace figs in the field. In fact, he's one of only five (possibly two more depending on the race later today, neither of which will be AP regardless of if he wins by the length of the stretch or not) that I can see winning. The rest would be surprising. I'll be using him, especially in cover multiples, but I'm not overly convinced by his actual talent, irrespective of numbers. His form outside of FG is just okay, and at FG he 1) didn't beat much, and 2) may just have loved the course. I was high on War Story prior to the La. Derby and backed him in futures expecting further progress, but that didn't happen. Based on that I can't see him factoring much, neither will Stanford. Keen Ice is a plodder and Tiznow RJ is a few cuts below. I don't wish bad will on anyone, but in a sense it wouldn't be the worst thing if he didn't run well in the Derby. To be in contention and ridden like that, in America's biggest race, would not be what racing needs in terms of spotlight. I wouldn't agree with the outcry or the notion that he could run as well when not being pushed so aggressively, but the media would have a field day.

I consider him the 11th most likely winner. Deep field.