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-   -   My Eclipse Ballot.. (Updated with Winners, Voting) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=56119)

Kasept 01-02-2015 12:22 PM

My Eclipse Ballot.. (Updated with Winners, Voting)
 
A few very difficult calls, including some that I hadn't anticipated being that involved (like 2yo male)..

Two-Year-Old Male: 1st - American Pharoah, 2nd - Texas Red, 3rd - Hootenany
Two-Year-Old Filly: 1st - Lady Eli, 2nd - Take Charge Brandi , 3rd - Sunset Glow

Three-Year-Old Male: : 1st - Bayern, 2nd - California Chrome, 3rd - Shared Belief
Three-Year-Old Filly: 1st - Untapable, 2nd - Sweet Reason , 3rd - Lexie Lou

Older Male: 1st - Palace Malice , 2nd - Goldencents, 3rd - Imperative
Older Female: 1st - Close Hatches, 2nd - Don't Tell Sophia, 3rd - Iotapa

Male Sprinter: 1st - Work All Week, 2nd - Private Zone, 3rd - Palace
Female Sprinter: 1st - Judy the Beauty, 2nd - Artemis Agrotera, 3rd - Better Lucky

Male Turf Horse: 1st - Main Sequence, 2nd - Wise Dan , 3rd - Kaigun
Female Turf Horse: 1st - Dayatthespa, 2nd - La Tia, 3rd - Stephanie's Kitten
Steeplechase Horse: 1st - Demonstrative, 2nd - Divine Fortune, 3rd - Makari

Owner: 1st - Kaleem Shah, 2nd - Kenneth L. and Sarah K. Ramsey, 3rd - Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC
Breeder: 1st - Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, 2nd - Kenneth L. and Sarah K. Ramsey, 3rd - Chester & Mary Broman
Trainer: 1st - Todd Pletcher, 2nd - Chad Brown , 3rd - Wesley Ward

Jockey: 1st - Javier Castellano, 2nd - Victor Espinoza, 3rd - Joel Rosario
Apprentice Jockey: 1st - Drayden Van Dyke, 2nd - Taylor Rice, 3rd - Juan Saez

Horse of the Year: 1st - Bayern, 2nd - California Chrome, 3rd - Untapable

senator L 01-02-2015 05:06 PM

Not into these awards that much as it really only matters
to those in ownership. I do think that California Chrome is
3 year old male champion and Bayern is HOY. IMO it all comes
down to the races that they won. Chrome won the most prestigious
races for 3 year old's and Bayern won the year end championship race.
Wise Dan still gets the turf vote for me as he is reigning champion.
Why didn't Main Sequence shorten up and go after Wise Dan?
Seems that is what Dan is always hearing.

blackthroatedwind 01-02-2015 05:54 PM

I'm curious as to how you think Todd should even be a finalist for the trainer Eclipse, much less the winner. In all seriousness, I thought he had a poor year all things considered. Certainly one's stock has to be taken into account. No?

Kasept 01-02-2015 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by senator L (Post 1010956)
Not into these awards that much as it really only matters to those in ownership. I do think that California Chrome is
3 year old male champion and Bayern is HOY. IMO it all comes
down to the races that they won. Chrome won the most prestigious
races for 3 year old's and Bayern won the year end championship race.
Wise Dan still gets the turf vote for me as he is reigning champion.
Why didn't Main Sequence shorten up and go after Wise Dan?
Seems that is what Dan is always hearing.

The 3yo/HOY aspect is very difficult. I had made the CalChrome as 3yo/Bayern as HOY case extensively too, but couldn't split the baby when it came down to it. Bayern did far more than just win the year-end championship race. He had a fully realized and complete season. Winning at 7f/9f/10f is a major accomplishment and he traveled extensively to do it. California Chrome had the purest "3yo Classic" season, but the 2nd half of year fell just short enough to leave the door open in my mind. And then there's Shared Belief.

A rather unique and remarkable season for the sophs all the way around as it turned out.

Kasept 01-02-2015 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1010976)
I'm curious as to how you think Todd should even be a finalist for the trainer Eclipse, much less the winner. In all seriousness, I thought he had a poor year all things considered. Certainly one's stock has to be taken into account. No?

Don't disagree. I typically have looked for alternative options, like Dale Romans 2 years ago, but the stats were tough to look past with Pletcher. I didn't have a mojo trainer that fit the bill. Here's a Stakes, Wins, Earnings standings page. What do you do? http://www1.drf.com/static/eclipseaw...seTrainers.htm

blackthroatedwind 01-02-2015 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1010981)
Don't disagree. I typically have looked for alternative options, like Dale Romans 2 years ago, but the stats were tough to look past with Pletcher. I didn't have a mojo trainer that fit the bill. Here's a Stakes, Wins, Earnings standings page. What do you do? http://www1.drf.com/static/eclipseaw...seTrainers.htm

I give it to a lot of trainers before Todd. Numbers don't do it for me given his numbers going in.

If you look at the season as a whole, it's not pretty.

NTamm1215 01-02-2015 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by senator L (Post 1010956)
Not into these awards that much as it really only matters
to those in ownership. I do think that California Chrome is
3 year old male champion and Bayern is HOY. IMO it all comes
down to the races that they won. Chrome won the most prestigious
races for 3 year old's and Bayern won the year end championship race.
Wise Dan still gets the turf vote for me as he is reigning champion.
Why didn't Main Sequence shorten up and go after Wise Dan?
Seems that is what Dan is always hearing.

I honestly don't think any case whatsoever can be made for Wise Dan to win the Eclipse.

Kasept 01-02-2015 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by senator L (Post 1010956)
Wise Dan still gets the turf vote for me as he is reigning champion. Why didn't Main Sequence shorten up and go after Wise Dan? Seems that is what Dan is always hearing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 1010985)
I honestly don't think any case whatsoever can be made for Wise Dan to win the Eclipse.

Bob..

Didn't address the turf question, but Nick's is right: it's not close. Wise Dan coming back after the colic was a great story, but Main Sequence sweeping nearly all the traditional American turf route tests bears scrutiny. He's a deceptive horse in that his style and margins of victory fueled his critics as he built his resume, but the results are inarguable.

Kasept 01-02-2015 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1010984)
I give it to a lot of trainers before Todd. Numbers don't do it for me given his numbers going in.

If you look at the season as a whole, it's not pretty.

Believe me, I get it. I've taken that tack in each of the years I've voted. I thought he had a 'down' year going in to the results but was actually surprised his cumulatives were as good as they were.

Here's the GSW's..

2014 Metropolitan Handicap (Gr. 1) Palace Malice
2014 Arkansas Derby (Gr. 1) Danza
2014 Besilu Florida Derby (Gr. 1) Constitution
2014 Alabama Stakes (Gr. 1) Stopchargingmaria
2014 Champagne Stakes (Gr. 1) Daredevil
2014 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (Gr. 1) Carpe Diem
2014 Hopeful Stakes (Gr. 1) Competitive Edge
2014 Chandelier Stakes (Gr. 1) Angela Renee
2014 TVG Coaching Club American Oaks (Gr. 1) Stopchargingmaria
2014 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (Gr. 2) Stopchargingmaria
2014 Risen Star Stakes (Gr. 2) Intense Holiday
2014 New Orleans Handicap (Gr. 2) Palace Malice
2014 Gulfstream Oaks (Gr. 2) In Tune
2014 Gazelle Stakes (Gr. 2) My Miss Sophia
2014 Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes (Gr. 2) Unitarian
2014 Nashua Stakes (Gr. 2) Blofeld
2014 Hawthorne Gold Cup Handicap (Gr. 2) Red Rifle
2014 Gulfstream Park Handicap (Gr. 2) Palace Malice
2014 Molly Pitcher Stakes (Gr. 2) Majestic River
2014 Top Flight Handicap (Gr. 2) Teen Pauline
2014 Futurity Stakes (Gr. 2) Blofeld
2014 Davona Dale Stakes (Gr. 2) Onlyforyou
2014 Forward Gal Stakes (Gr. 2) Onlyforyou
2014 Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral Stakes (Gr. 3) We Miss Artie
2014 Poker Stakes (Gr. 3) Jack Milton
2014 Smarty Jones Stakes (Gr. 3) Protonico
2014 Pimlico Special Stakes (Gr. 3) Revolutionary
2014 Schuylerville Stakes (Gr. 3) Fashion Alert
2014 Sam F. Davis Stakes (Gr. 3) Vinceremos
2014 American Derby (Gr. 3) Divine Oath
2014 Turnback the Alarm Handicap (Gr. 3) Dame Dorothy
2014 Razorback Handicap (Gr. 3) Golden Lad
2014 Discovery Handicap (Gr. 3) Protonico
2014 Kent Stakes (Gr. 3) Divine Oath
2014 Palm Beach Stakes (Gr. 3) Gala Award
2014 Westchester Stakes (Gr. 3) Palace Malice
2014 Cliff Hanger Stakes (Gr. 3) Winning Cause
2014 W. L. McKnight Handicap (Gr. 3) Divine Oath
2014 Old Hat Stakes (Gr. 3) Sweet Whiskey
2014 Skip Away Stakes (Gr. 3) Micromanage

blackthroatedwind 01-02-2015 06:34 PM

The number of horses who never won again after the listed race is positively scary.

cakes44 01-02-2015 06:42 PM

Thanks for putting your list out there. Only one I really have issues with is Lady Eli over TCB.

Kasept 01-02-2015 06:58 PM

Here are the year end (thru 12/29) horse category PP's for everyone's enjoyment: http://static.drf.com/eclipse/pdf/eclipse-pps.pdf

Arletta 01-02-2015 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1010989)
The number of horses who never won again after the listed race is positively scary.

At least he is able to get them their ever elusive Graded win for their breeding resumes.

Bogey 01-02-2015 09:08 PM

Steve, your ballot is spot on. I hope others come up with similar selections.

turf fan 01-02-2015 09:21 PM

Steve,
Thanks for your support for Dayatthespa! It would be fantastic to win!
I'm rooting for Chad to get his Eclipse this year. Second in earnings plus three BC wins should give him a legitimate chance. Pletcher is so dominant, but based on percentages and his big day at Santa Anita, Chad should secure a lot of votes.

Thoroughbred Fan 01-02-2015 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1010981)
Don't disagree. I typically have looked for alternative options, like Dale Romans 2 years ago, but the stats were tough to look past with Pletcher. I didn't have a mojo trainer that fit the bill. Here's a Stakes, Wins, Earnings standings page. What do you do? http://www1.drf.com/static/eclipseaw...seTrainers.htm

Maybe Baffert? Same number of G1 Wins with less than half the starters. Bob gets good horses, but not nearly like Todd.

Crazy part with Todd is he gets twice as many horses as it looks like. He cuts the roster 25% before they leave the 2yo training facility and another 25% after their first start. He is dealing from a stacked deck with respect to these year end stats.

Tough for you as a voter.

Indian Charlie 01-03-2015 01:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 1010985)
I honestly don't think any case whatsoever can be made for Wise Dan to win the Eclipse.

What about a sentimental case?

Kasept 01-03-2015 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arletta (Post 1011007)
At least he is able to get them their ever elusive Graded win for their breeding resumes.

That's the point Andy is making because the GSW's aren't all that elusive when you're getting a phalanx of the most expensive, 'success-eligible' horses every crop. And it's the great conundrum with Pletcher as his 'program' may be good for a certain number of clients, but very bad for the game overall. I broached this a bit with Pletcher in his last visit of the year when we talked for 25 minutes and if you listen closely you hear exactly how he approaches each year with Gulfstream as the concentration for assaults on the Classics and Saratoga as a 2nd half focus to get the 2yo's going and relaunch any horses that took time after the spring.

The 80/20 rule is universal, but it's even worse in racing right now with 15% of trainers winning 85% of the stake money. It's a terrible construct.

Kasept 01-03-2015 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bogey (Post 1011013)
Steve, your ballot is spot on. I hope others come up with similar selections.

THX Cookie.. Jon White wrote that he thinks California Chrome will carry the day for 3yo and HOY. Part of the HOY vote scenario that's intriguing is the Main Sequence block. Would think those leaning there are anti-Bayern voters and help California Chrome's chances. Very unusual year..

saratogadew 01-03-2015 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1010976)
I'm curious as to how you think Todd should even be a finalist for the trainer Eclipse, much less the winner. In all seriousness, I thought he had a poor year all things considered. Certainly one's stock has to be taken into account. No?

This is an age old argument that never really has a correct answer. For coach of the year in the 4 major sports. Do you give it to the guy with the most talented team that wins the championship? Or do you give it to the coach that has far less talent but has a good season? Voting for a Bill Belichick type is not a sexy vote, but is sometimes correct.

freddymo 01-04-2015 10:36 AM

Does anyone know how many 2&3 year olds TAP gets a year? I would assume 200+ combined? Would any of them not be considered 75k+ specimen's in advance of the start of their pending career? Would be OK with me if they split award for trainers with 100 or more being one category and 100 or less another.

freddymo 01-04-2015 10:45 AM

Personally I think a trainers success isn't just winning A race and then the horse goes into hibernation or abyss. Plus why not give credit to trainers who's stock stays at levels(Brown) and improves(Motion) vs. just winning a big race and never circling back or healthy enough to return to winning form. If the answer is its not "Their Program" then I wish to change the channel to more intelligent and healthy programming. That said TAP is a HoF trainer who enjoys immense success and one of the very best at what he does. Trainer of Year...Not for me especially this year

Danzig 01-04-2015 11:45 AM

Pretty easy to win the 100 yard dash when one starts on the 75 yard line. He should win the eclipse for best businessman.

Holybull1 01-05-2015 10:35 AM

Steve, thanks for posting. I've heard you sing the praises of Lady Eli on your show many times. With all due respect, how can you think her body of work is better than Take Charge Brandi's? If the voting was immediately after the BC a solid case could be made for Lady Eli. But adding another G1 and a $1 million G3 makes this a slam dunk case for TCB.

I totally understand your logic for Lady Eli. She was visually impressive and you believe she's the best 2yo filly. But her on-track results do not stack up to TCB and it's really not close.

To put it another way, Dortmund is widely regarded as the best 2yo cold in the country. But what he's done on the track should not earn him the Eclipse. Obviously that's an extreme analogy, but it clarifies my point.

I really do not want to start an argument, just a discussion. Thanks again.

blackthroatedwind 01-05-2015 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1011286)
Personally I think a trainers success isn't just winning A race and then the horse goes into hibernation or abyss. Plus why not give credit to trainers who's stock stays at levels(Brown) and improves(Motion) vs. just winning a big race and never circling back or healthy enough to return to winning form. If the answer is its not "Their Program" then I wish to change the channel to more intelligent and healthy programming. That said TAP is a HoF trainer who enjoys immense success and one of the very best at what he does. Trainer of Year...Not for me especially this year

Todd is not in the Hall of Fame.

freddymo 01-06-2015 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1011458)
Todd is not in the Hall of Fame.

I realize he has not been elected but nonetheless he will certainly be inducted.

10 pnt move up 01-06-2015 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1011504)
I realize he has not been elected but nonetheless he will certainly be inducted.

yea they said that about Steve A as well...things do happen, its not a given.

cakes44 01-06-2015 05:50 PM

They did?

Kasept 01-07-2015 11:06 AM

Eclipse Awards finalists
 
The 2014 Eclipse Awards finalists, in alphabetical order:

Two-Year-Old Male: American Pharoah, Hootenanny, Texas Red
Two-Year-Old Filly: Condo Commando, Lady Eli, Take Charge Brandi

Three-Year-Old Male: Bayern, California Chrome, Shared Belief
Three-Year-Old Filly: Stopchargingmaria, Sweet Reason, Untapable

Older Male: Main Sequence, Palace Malice, Wise Dan
Older Female: Close Hatches, Dayatthespa, Don’t Tell Sophia

Male Sprinter: Goldencents, Private Zone, Work All Week
Female Sprinter: Artemis Agrotera, Judy the Beauty, Sweet Reason

Male Turf Horse: Karakontie (JPN), Main Sequence, Wise Dan
Female Turf Horse: Crown Queen, Dayatthespa, Stephanie’s Kitten
Steeplechase Horse: Demonstrative, Divine Fortune, Makari (GB)

Owner: Kaleem Shah, Midwest Thoroughbreds, Ken and Sarah Ramsey
Breeder: Adena Springs, Ken and Sarah Ramsey, Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Bob Baffert, Chad Brown, Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano, Joel Rosario, John Velazquez
Apprentice Jockey: Angel Cruz, Taylor Rice, Drayden Van Dyke

Horse of the Year: Bayern, California Chrome, Main Sequence

FATPIANO 01-07-2015 12:42 PM

The 2014 Eclipse Awards finalists, in alphabetical order:

Two-Year-Old Male: American Pharoah
Two-Year-Old Filly: Take Charge Brandi

Three-Year-Old Male: Bayern
Three-Year-Old Filly: Untapable

Older Male: Main Sequence
Older Female: Don’t Tell Sophia

Male Sprinter: Goldencents
Female Sprinter: Judy the Beauty

Male Turf Horse: Main Sequence
Female Turf Horse: Dayatthespa
Steeplechase Horse: Demonstrative

Owner: Ken and Sarah Ramsey
Breeder: Ken and Sarah Ramsey
Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano
Apprentice Jockey: Angel Cruz

Horse of the Year: Main Sequence

just my opinion

Kasept 01-07-2015 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus (Post 1011642)
I don't see the case for Main Sequence as the Horse of the Year.

If a horse were to win HOTY with a four-race campaign, it should be a dynamic campaign (like Ghostzapper's brief 2005).

Instead, he won his races by a total of one length (1/2, nk, nk, hd). Hardly noteworthy.

I don't get him as HOY either, but the way he wins is not what diminishes the consideration. It is turf racing after all.. They're generally not separated by significant margins to start with. The fact that he beat a high quality International cast in the BC Turf in the same fashion as the more modest types he beat the rest of the year, really answers all questions about him stylistically. He was capable of getting to the wire first no matter the depth and quality of the fields he faced.

To me, the 4 very nice G1 turf efforts just don't measure up to what the 3yo boys and even Untapable did in 2014.

blackthroatedwind 01-07-2015 02:34 PM

That's a good point about Untapable, Steve. She would have been a better candidate.

I love Main Sequence, and am a huge fan of Graham as a trainer, but I would never consider him a legit HOY candidate.

Kasept 01-07-2015 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Holybull1 (Post 1011436)
Steve, thanks for posting. I've heard you sing the praises of Lady Eli on your show many times. With all due respect, how can you think her body of work is better than Take Charge Brandi's? If the voting was immediately after the BC a solid case could be made for Lady Eli. But adding another G1 and a $1 million G3 makes this a slam dunk case for TCB.

I totally understand your logic for Lady Eli. She was visually impressive and you believe she's the best 2yo filly. But her on-track results do not stack up to TCB and it's really not close.

To put it another way, Dortmund is widely regarded as the best 2yo cold in the country. But what he's done on the track should not earn him the Eclipse. Obviously that's an extreme analogy, but it clarifies my point.

I really do not want to start an argument, just a discussion. Thanks again.

HB,

I know I'm on an island with Lady Eli after Brandi's Starlet. But, while Brandi was obviously the best main track filly, I think the group as a whole was less than even ordinary. Meanwhile, Lady Eli's BC J-Filly Turf topped an International cast with real credentials and was done in extraordinary fashion for a 2yo filly. I think Lady Eli is an exceptional talent and that Take Charge Brandi is simply the best of a bad bunch. By comparison, American Pharoah appears poised to be the 2yo champion off a 3 race campaign while Texas Red and Hootenany both built more fully fleshed out seasons.

Kasept 01-07-2015 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1011652)
That's a good point about Untapable, Steve. She would have been a better candidate.

I love Main Sequence, and am a huge fan of Graham as a trainer, but I would never consider him a legit HOY candidate.

On the HOY ballot, I went Bayern, California Chrome, Untapable. It seems to me that Main Sequence's HOY consideration is being advanced simply out of misplaced animus toward Bayern and Baffert.

FATPIANO 01-07-2015 02:54 PM

Just my opinion, undefeated in four grade 1 races, again undefeated in 4 grade 1 races, can anyone else stake that claim? He was Perfection, plain and simple..

blackthroatedwind 01-07-2015 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FATPIANO (Post 1011663)
Just my opinion, undefeated in four grade 1 races, again undefeated in 4 grade 1 races, can anyone else stake that claim? He was Perfection, plain and simple..

If a horse was four for four in claiming races that would be perfection too....at least by your standards.

Unless winning photos over Twilight Eclipse ( twice ) and Imagining ( once ) is your idea of HOY type performances?

NTamm1215 01-07-2015 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FATPIANO (Post 1011663)
Just my opinion, undefeated in four grade 1 races, again undefeated in 4 grade 1 races, can anyone else stake that claim? He was Perfection, plain and simple..

Untapable was 4-4 in Grade I races against her own sex.

This idea that Horse of the Year needs to go to undefeated horses has become pervasive and it is just awful in my opinion.

Realistically, it's a silly award that jumped the shark four years ago. A large group of non-betting social media titans seem to choose one horse each year, abandoning reason and projecting their opinion on all others. This year they reject Bayern because A) he had the audacity to lose a few times and B) they accept him as the BCC winner about as much as the Democrats accepted Bush in 2000.

FATPIANO 01-07-2015 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1011666)
If a horse was four for four in claiming races that would be perfection too....at least by your standards.

Unless winning photos over Twilight Eclipse ( twice ) and Imagining ( once ) is your idea of HOY type performances?

lol, I said Undefeated in 4 GRADE 1 Races,including Breeders Cup Turf!!

FATPIANO 01-07-2015 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 1011668)
Untapable was 4-4 in Grade I races against her own sex.

This idea that Horse of the Year needs to go to undefeated horses has become pervasive and it is just awful in my opinion.

Realistically, it's a silly award that jumped the shark four years ago. A large group of non-betting social media titans seem to choose one horse each year, abandoning reason and projecting their opinion on all others. This year they reject Bayern because A) he had the audacity to lose a few times and B) they accept him as the BCC winner about as much as the Democrats accepted Bush in 2000.

PS: my second choise IS BAYERN


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