Brisbet take on Bernie
 

"He captured Saturday's Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) under a gallop, widening his lead through the stretch to 6 3/4 lengths with jockey Javier Castellano sitting still in the saddle. That makes six straight wins for the wondrous equine, and it's the same story every time. When Bernardini reaches the top of the stretch, the race is over. Castellano can name the margin.

Swift and powerful on the track, Bernardini's excellence can be measured by Speed ratings. He's on hallowed ground with numbers, earning a whopping 116 BRIS Speed rating for the Jockey Club Gold Cup. The bay colt posted a 111 Speed rating for his 7 3/4-length romp in the Travers S. (G1), and a 114 for his 5 1/4-length score in the Preakness S. (G1). In fact, the lowest Speed number Bernardini has earned since breaking his maiden is a 110. Very special indeed.

How good is Bernardini?

He's good enough to leave goose bumps.

Horses like Bernardini can capture our imagination. He still has to win the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) on November 4, but no horse appears capable of stopping him. The Classic may be his defining moment."

Sidebar: Lava Man earned a 107 in his last which is below Bernardini's last 3. If you saw the JGC dini jogged and is capable of much more. My hope is we see how much more Nov 4.
PS Even if he loses at least I'll get a Carolina pork samich which will be worth the trip to Louisvilleby itself. LOL

" The Classic may be his defining moment."


For better or for worse?

This is really getting a bit tiresome. If one hadn't actually seen Bernardini, or understood speed figures, or known the relative abilities of those he's faced, one would get the feeling he was f'n Pegasus and he had extra strong wings. This kind of silly crap bears no relation whatsoever to this horse. He's a very good horse, one who may even be exceptionally good, but as of now he is no better than 50 horses that have run in the last 20 years. OK, that's pretty damn good, but hardly the kind of accolades that are being thrown around.


And by the way, who wrote that on Brisbet, and why should we care what he or she thinks? This person is more qualified than whom?

James Scully wrote it. I never heard of him. Has he written anything else?

I agree as I've stated already. Its just too premature to me the way people are talking. And that's not taking a shot at the horse---that's what people need to realize. Even Albertrani realizes that more needs to be done. That's just common sense.

Guess that's why we have mutual pools. I know he will be overbet and like I did at Belmont will probably pass the race. I am a big Bernardni FAN and like I said I hope we see all of what he's got.

It's just more irresponsible journalism in racing leading people in the wrong direction. No wonder so many people are confused about what a really good horse is or was ( see Lost in the Fog among others ).

Ok so Bernardini's last four bris speed numbers were 114, 111, 111, 116.

Invasor's three G1 wins this year earned these ratings 112, 118, 115.
Invasor also had troubled starts in at least two of those races.

My question is why is there no big fanfare for what this horse has done?

If Bernardini's numbers are considered "whopping" by this writer, what exactly are wrong with Invasors numbers and why don't they "leave goose bumps"?

Bernardini did not have to fight off a Sun King. Bernardini is an AP Indy too. He continues to just get better.

Like the Beyers or not, they are far more reliable than the worthless BRIS figs. And on the Beyer scale, Invasor wasn't in Bernardini's league.

Excellent question? Bernie's, one can argue, were in softer spots to boot.

beyers just have not been anywhere near as reliable imo.

I'm kind of torn right now. Reading all of the posts about Bernardini have me concerned about the possible mental problems that will arise if Bernardini loses in the BCC. I don't want people who've invested their heart and soul into the horse to have their dreams shattered, but on the other hand it probably would do them some good to step back into reality and lasso in some of those bold opinions.

One thing's for sure, I'd love to own cash call on BC day.

But with little effort.

Did you read this in that Haskin article

Walking back to the test barn, Bernardini was still so strong, his groom, Jose Amezcua, who had been nursing a bad back, asked Rehm to help him hold the horse. "He was pulling him so hard, Jose made me grab the other rein," said Rehm. "He said, 'He's going to run away from me.' In the test barn, he took one little sip of water and that was it."

Rev, this is so subjective. Its so difficult to know how much more a horse can give at any one time. Some horses do in fact have more. And some run slower when they get hit repeatedly. How they respond to the pressure isn't known until it happens. And Lord knows it wasn't going to happen from Wanderin Boy or the Dr. Pleasures of the world.....NOT a knock on Bernie, but it needs to be seen.

Well considering they probably will retire him, hopefully they will let him go all out in the BCC. If he were to break Secretariat's track record at 10F, it would be hard to argue he isn't one of the top 5 horses to ever run.

This is flat out crazy as a statement. 5 ever?

Break Secretariat's record.


ROFLMMFAO.

Whoooo.

10F track record? you might want to ease up on the kool-aid there rev!

Yes. It is 1:59.40 at Churchill, where Secretariat did it in the KY Derby. I could easily see them making the track very fast and I think Bernardini is going to break the record.

I disagree. Invasor went from 108 to 111 to 113 in his three races. Bernardini went from 114 to 116 to 117 in his last three. Considering the standard error on those figures and that the figure from one race is used to compute the figure for the next there is really little that significantly separates the two. You could make the argument that Bernardini could have gone faster if pushed which may or may not be true but to say those figures aren't in the same league when statistically they aren't even significantly different wouldn't be correct.

Well that would make it a very special day indeed!

I guess anything's possible, if Monarchos could come close, I assume Bernardini could, but he had trouble breaking 2:00 in a 1 turn 1 1/4 on a fast track and no one knows how he's going to fair against some pressure, to automatically assume he can go faster is rediculous...Also, a super fast track would favor Lava Man...

Chances are it will be raining on BCC day. It's that time of year.

Bernardini retort #53....:confused:

Once again, this appears to be an amazing animal, but let's let him earn his coronation. Only three more weeks, then we can officially shower him with superlatives. In three weeks, if he runs away from Lava Man and Invasor among others, then there will be no disputing his enormous talent. Besides, there is no use in jumping on the bandwagon now because you're just siding with the obvious.

However, he hasn't matched Ghostzapper's or Formal Gold's figures yet, much less a Secretariat/ Spectacular Bid type track record. It's the apparent ease with which Bernie moves that really has forwarded his reputation, but who is to say he picks up another couple of lengths if they put the whip on him? With his current figures, he's a length or two better than Invasor and LM and somewhere in the range with Skip Away and Point Given. An advantage for sure, but not exactly an insurmountable advantage considering you'll get 3 or 4 times better odds on the others. Now I'm sure somebody sat back and tried to figure how to beat Secretariat in 1973, so this may be an exercise in futility. There's no value in a losing play.

Why is this irreponsible journalism? Hes just trying to get the public pumped up about a very special horse whos only flaw is not beating anybody, if you call that a flaw. Horses have been avoiding him and now they must finally face him in the Classic, hence the Classic may be his defining moment. I think everything written here is pretty accurate. While I wont be betting him or rooting for him in the BC Classic, I still appreicate this horse and its very possible he is the greatest horse to have ever run. Whos to say otherwise? I wouldnt judge his races by times, lengths of the wins or who hes beaten. Bernardini runs fast enough to win vs the competition (if you call it that).

I do want to say that I agree with the other part of your post but this statement is completely false. " value " in wagering is totally unrelated to whether or not you win or lose. As the simplest example, if you give me 2-1 on heads coming up in a coin flip, even if it's tails, I made a value bet. The point of " value " is that, assuming you truly have it, over time you WILL make money and individual events are irrelevent.

I think it is irresponsible to pretend something happened that didn't. Sorry, but I find a lot of what I have read about Bernardini to bear little resemblence to reality. Wanting a horse to be good is fine, but pretending one has done something it hasn't, for the sake of drama, is irresponsible. That is what is going on in this article...IMO.

Value is certainly not betting a 4/5 horse to win, however there can be very good value with that horse on top in an exacta.

First off, the sheets SHOULD trump Beyer's figs, considering the cost. And I would agree their grass numbers do. But the Sheets and T-Graph have their own issues; taking into account weight and wind but leaving out far more important variables such as pace and bias. A horse running in the 4 path on a dead rail/good outside track gets extra credit due to ground loss, when in fact they are getting an ideal trip.

As for Bris, I've heard a very neutral observer, Jerry Brown, state that those were the most worthless figs of all.

Um....no. There could easily be a 4:5 shot that is " value " ( what if Bernardini had been 4:5 in the JCGC ).

" Value " is anything where the odds you are receiving are greater than the ACTUAL odds of the event occuring. Obviously this doesn't happen a lot in horse racing, due mostly to the takeout and partially to the efficiency of the betting pools, but it is can happen though its provability in racing is nebulous at best.

I happen to agree with Jerry on this point ( and with you on yours )....but how could he possibly be considered a " neutral observer " in this discussion?

Sure it is, if you think the horse is 1/5 to win. I'm not ever going to do it (i'd rather play the goddamn slots than bet 4/5 shots all day), but if you have $100,000 lying around and you can get an 80% return on what you believe to be an 80% proposition, you take it every time.

HA! impeccable timing... my thoughts exactly.

I should clarify, he was talking specifically about Bris and Beyer figs. I guess maybe he isn't totally neutral, but I don't think he had any motive to say one was better than the other.

The problem most people face is the number of trials... they either (a) don't have the proper bankroll for the number of trials required, or (b) don't play enough races WITH an advantage versus WITHOUT (myself included.)

90% of people that go to the track don't understand this concept anyways. A couple times a day at tracks with solid but lesser handle (Monmouth, Md, etc.) you'll see an exacta combination wayyyyy overbet leaving opportunity in other probable combinations. I'll say i'm betting the 5-6 combo even though i don't necessarily prefer either of them over my selection because the exacta's paying $50 for a buck when it should be $15. It invariable the comment comes up following, "well if you don't like them, why bet them??"

I agree with this snipe. Any Beyer fig is +/- 4 points even if calculated with no preconceived notion of what fits the race or the horse. Unfortunately, politically correct figs are becoming prevalent nowdays. Want to see an example? Look closely at Bernardini and Henny Hughes last Saturday. HH ran the faster race relative to 6fl than Bern did relative to 10fl. HH got a 113, Bern got a 117 and there was no evidence to support a split variant.

Bernie has run in soft spots.

Yup, they looked at the calendar and said 'let's find the softest spots out there to race him' and they came up with the Preakness, Jim Dandy, Traver's and the Jockey Club Gold Cup. :rolleyes:

Those races came up soft.