Horse of the Year prediction thread
 

I want two names and two names ONLY (and yes, I know it's a bit early for this but whatever! Why not?!)...

Who do you think it will be and who do you hope it will be (?).

Who wants to go first?

shared belief
shared belief

Close Hatches

California Chrome (don't judge me... in my world he wins the Classic)

Tonalist

Shared Belief

Shared Belief

Bayern

Ditto or Wicked Strong

He's done for the year.

Shared Belief
Tonalist

Belle Gallantey or Condo Commando.

Hoping Dads Caps can take down honors as top sprinter..

WISE DAN ......... again! :D

California Chrome

I would try Close Hatches in the Classic. What do they have to lose?
I think 5 or 6 different horses are still in play. If I had to give one right now I would say Bayern, but who knows.

Wise Dan and close hatches

Wise Dan
California Chrome (MMSC I think you are right !)

I am surprised by all the Wise Dan picks. I don’t see how he wins it this year, even if he wins his next two races. I don’t think he has been as impressive this year as he has been the last two years. On top of that I think horses like Bayern, Tonalist and Shared Belief will have all done more if any of them wins the BC Classic. Even Close Hatches… If she were to win the Keeneland G1 and the Distaff I think she would be more deserving this year.

Emergency colic surgery will do that to you

He's admirable that's for sure. But I did not think he was as impressive Derby day even before the set back.
Plus its not even a negative stance that Im taking on him. I just think if any of the horses I mentioned wins the Classic they will have had better overall years. Has a horse ever won the Belmont, JCGC and Classic or Haskell and Classic with a few other big wins and not win HOY?

Rudy Rodriguez (AKA Richard Dutrows Protege) is making a name for himself on the East coast. Not sure if that is a good thing. A true magician

The West Coast has one too. His name is Philip D'Amato. His ROI in almost every category is profitable. Pure Genius!

I think Rudy made a name for himself like 5 years ago. I get what your saying though, he is having a huge run right now. I think he is 33% at the current Belmont meet. And we all know about the back to back G1 and G2 wins on Saturday.

Tonalist

Close Hatches

Seems like a two horse race at this point.

CC and SB.

Not sure how the filly can win it. I think she'd need to win the Classic, and no way does that happen.

Tonalist would need to win the Classic as well, and I think that is really far fetched.

Whichever between the trio of SB, CC wins the BC Classic. That will be my choice for horse of the year. I was thinking of Tonalist, but if I were to consider him if he wins the BC Classic, I also would have to be fair to Bayern who I don't think should be horse of the year if he wins BC Classic, but he definitely has to be given consideration

Pretty amazing there's a good chance this will be the first time since 2007 that the HOTY will be the BC Classic winner.

I agree with IC....Shared Belief or Chrome. Concerns are how much the AA took out of SB and if Chrome can run back close to his TC form before the Belmont.
Wise Dan is a sentimental fav of course...:)

If Close Hatches wins the Spinster and the Distaff and her record is perfect for the year (5 G1s and a G3), would you say it's likely that she'll win HOY ONLY IF some longshot jumps up and takes the Classic?

I have only followed the sport since 2004 but I don't remember it ever being so wide open (all year I was kinda hoping for Palace Malice, but alas...)

You know he is un-retired right? :)

Yes. :)

Yes. But, Close Hatches' resume will be tremendous with wins in the Spinster and Distaff.

I will say that if a longshot wins the BCC, and Close Hatches and Wise Dan both win out, there's no question in my mind she is far more deserving than him.

There is no way Wise Dan can win right, his record this year is well...........kinda weak.

I dont think he can win. I dont care if he wins his next two starts.
With Kingman out now the Mile looks soft anyway, unless there is another Euro monster that I dont know about. I guess if they ran Wise Dan in the Classic and he won, that would be a different story.

Shared Belief on both accounts.

It's Shared Belief's to lose at this point, but Tonalist has an outside shot.

How is it not Bayern, Shared Belief, Tonalist or Chromes to lose?? If any of them win the Classic they should be HOY.

Bayern ain't winning the classic, and even if he miraculously did, it would still be a stretch for him to win HOY.

I would love to see Wise Dan win it for a third time but yeah I do agree. Don't think it's going to happen.

Gotta say I'm a little baffled by some of the Shared Belief comments. Don't get me wrong, he is amazing, but I don't see how he is more deserving than say California Chrome.

4 wins from 4 starts, including one allowance race, the Los Al Derby and sure... 2 G1s wins. All were at Cali tracks.

Compare this to CC...7 starts, 5 wins of which 3 were G1s... ran at Churchill, Belmont, Parx, Pimlico and at home... how is SB more deserving?

Maybe it's me...

Not that I know much about it, but I got the impression in the past that the big consideration was G-1s at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter or greater. I think that Tonalist, Shared Belief and CC all have 2 each now.

SB only has the Del Mar race for the classic distance wins.

Though, obviously if he wins the BCC, that will make it two.

Yes, I was mistaken. I just looked at that.

Untappable wins the Distaff Close Hatches is a fraud she has not run a fast race ever. IF Beholder doesnt run loose Untappable will crush these hacks

Cal Chrome will be eating sushi in Japan before he wins another race

Why thank you, Freddy, for the charming and astonishingly kind thought.

Any predictions on HOY or would you rather predict what kind (of sushi) will be his favorite?