Perryville -G3 Keeneland Friday...wow.
 

# Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Likely Leparoux J R 117 0 L
2 Vanilla Scoop Martinez W 117 0 Blk-On L
3 Midnight Lute Espinoza V 117 0 L
4 Court Folly Borel C H 123 0 L
5 Mach Ride Albarado R J 117 0 L
6 Reigning Court Lanerie C J 117 0 L
7 Fabled Castro E 117 0 L
8 Sailors Sunset Castanon J L 117 0 L
9 Lewis Michael Douglas R R 117 0 L
10 Latent Heat Prado E S 117 0 L
11 Praying for Cash Bejarano R 117 0 L
12 High Finance Gomez G K 117

Seems like a pretty good field. Who do you like?

I don't know, any turf horses in there, because the race aint on the dirt.

If they would move it to Churchill, and also move it to the dirt, I would probably like Mach Ride off his superb King's Bishop effort. However, I am not betting Polyturf....at least not for more than $50 a race.

I'd bet Mach as well in a theoretical universe where the race was on dirt.
Its the only way to discuss these races.

Oh come on--Poly isnt that hard to handicap. It has its angles just everything else has. I really like High Finance.

I guess the trainers like it, for now at least, as this is an unbelievable field especially for a Grade 3.

I can't believe the connections of Praying for Cash had a spot like this in mind when they made the unfair switch to Pletcher. A lot of fuss was made about the Lawyer Ron switch but this one was MUCH more disgraceful.

I don't bet angles....I handicap, and without a " database " of Polyturf races I am not interested in betting my money. The game is hard enough.

This has been a nice race in the recent past, Commentator won it...Clock Stopper running against a huge speed bias that day to win...me telling anyone that would listen that he would win the BC Sprint, only to have him get hurt and Cajun Beat win, that was horrible, because these two were within a neck of each other in the Kentucky Cup Sprint...

I was skeptical too but it really doesn't seem that bad. Just factor in that both dirt and turf horses like it and cap from there.

You guys told me before the weekend that good dirt horses would like it, and then pointed to the upcoming Happy Ticket race as one that could prove that.

So, ummm, remind me of all the good dirt horses who have shown they like it?
So far the poster child is High Cotton, who just ran off the board in the Pegasus, and that ain't saying much.

Because it's being run on the junk, I have no idea how it will play out. I think Latent Heat is the class of the field and should win but again, on the junk u never know. Circular Quay appeared to be a standout too and we saw Happy Ticket and Spun Sugar do nothing. I think that along with Latent Heat, Midnight Lute is above the rest of the field. I'd say that Reigning Court has to be respected off a win over the Turfway junk and Likely has a win and a second on the Turfway junk. Sailors Sunset has seemingly really improved and if u like Midnight Lute, u have to take a look at Sailors since he recently beat the comebacking Midnight Lute. I'll probably play Latent Heat and Midnight Lute in the top two spots and Sailors Sunset, Reigning Court, and Likely in the third with Lewis Michael in the fourth if I play a super.

Let's make it a box of:
Latent Heat-4
Midnight Lute-12
Sailors Sunset-10
Reigning Court-12
Likely-12

U say that but I haven't seen any indication that dirt horses like it anywhere near as much as turf horses like it. Of course, more dirt horses will win on it because far more are entered but it seems that when there is a good turf horse entered, he has the advantage. All things being equal from a handicapping perspective, I'm taking the grass horses over the dirt ones on this junk.

Clockstopper got a brutal trip, even for him, in that Kentucky Cup Sprint and should have won fairly easily.

Of course nobody was beating Cajun Beat in that BC.

You know, I think it more the owners than the trainers who are calling the shots when it comes to PolyTrack. I am surprised as anyone with the quality of fields Keeneland is getting. I think after about 2 years or so, the novelty will go away and Poly will be where Poly belongs--at tracks like Turfway and Woodbine.

Thayt is true and I agree. There needs to be a database. But you still have to look at the races and find good value. Hence race 1 on Saturday. 1 horse won at 21-1. Cant believe he went off at those odds.

I think Happy Ticket liked it just fine. The Distaff division sucks compared to the FM Turf so she just plain wasn't as good as Asi Siempre. She would have gotten up for second if she didn't steady in the stretch.

I also told you I liked Great Hunter, Street Sense, and Passport more than CQ wherever the race was run. Great Hunter won and Street Sense lost by a nose to CQ.

Untouched Talent didn't seem to have too much problem with it.

Getting back on topic, I'll take Court Folly, High Finance, and Latent Heat here for the tri.

Happy Ticket proved those people were right. Happy Ticket had the race won if he didnt get completely cut off. The jock and trainer both said they were amazed with the way HT performed and that it was bad racing luck that got them beat not the surface. Go back and watch the race and u will see.

Happy Ticket didnt mind the track, she did get checked up and steadied pretty good in the stretch. She will run on anything.

That's true...

I would have been fine with it, because I liked Cajun Beat and had him, but I didn't have Bluesthestandard, so I got nothing...It's a stretch that CS would have been second, but it was very frustrating to see that happen...

Lewis Michael

Well if you look at the form coming in Asi Siempre was a better horse than Happy Ticket. The only one that could have beat her was Spun Sugar who you never know when she'll fire. If Bernardini met English Channel on polytrack he'd have no problem with him since he's the better horse. I really haven't seen a really good dirt horse get taken down by an average turf horse yet. Perhaps when all things are equal the advantage goes to the turf horse but I don't think it is a significant advantage.

Happy Ticket had the race won if he didnt get completely cut off.

Thats very hard to make that statement. Asi Siempre was coming with a full head of steam down the center and would have been tough for Happy Ticket to catch. I think the margin of victory would have been less, but I think the Biancone charge would have still won. Asi Siempre got the all important jump on Happy Ticket.

I don't agree at all that Asi Siempre was the better horse coming in. She was 1-1-1 in five starts on the year and the highest level she's ever actually won at was grade three and had never run on dirt. Meanwhile, Happy Ticket was 2-3-0 in five starts, has won a grade two this year and narrowly missed in a grade one and has won multiple graded stakes on the dirt at several distances. I can't agree at all with the assessment that u never know when Spun Sugar will fire. She had only been off the board once in her 11 career starts so it seems to me that she fires just about every time. In addition to that, in her six career races around two-turns, she was 5-1-0. How do u make the claim that u never know when she'll fire? In her two-turn races, she's handled Keeneland, Pimlico, Saratoga, Gulfstream, and Oaklawn. If anything, she's shown that she's very consistent and doesn't need to take her track with her.

The Distaff division is weak compared to the FM Turf. Using Beyers Asi Siempre looked better coming in than Happy Ticket. Spun Sugar might do well in her races but her figures are all over the place. She has about two or three lifetime races that she had a high enough figure to run with Asi Siempre.

Ok. Sorry, but I disagree that Asi Siempre looked better than Happy Ticket going in. Maybe u saw something that most everyone else didn't though. Happy Ticket was 8/5 and Asi Siempre was 9/2.

Just for the record, Asi Siempre was one of my top two plays for the race.....but only because she was proven on grass, not because I thought she looked better coming in.

I don't have the slightest idea how anyone could say a horse like Asi Siempre was a better horse, none. I mean she'd won one race all year, and failed against the stop dogs in her own division. Whatever, just let her line up in he gate at CD on BC day in the Distaff and we'll see just who shes better than.

I'll post the figures tonight, I don't have them here. I'm sure some discounted her because she was a turf horse and the race was on "dirt". Others probably looked at her record and saw she wasn't winning as much as the dirt horses in the easier Distaff division.

It would be insane if they went to the Distaff with Asi Siempre though. A turf horse running well on polytrack does not mean they will magically like the dirt.

Don't bother with the figures. They don't mean much of anything to me when I've been able to see the races for myself. I mostly only use figures in handicapping horses I haven't seen.

Well that certainly makes it tough to compare dirt and turf horses clashing heads on polytrack. Picking the best turf horses might work for a bit while their odds are still inflated but eventually more bettors will catch on and it won't be that simple.

I'm confused as to what you're saying here- High Cotton is a good dirt horse who liked it because he won the Rushaway on it? If that's the case, i'll make the counter argument that he could have won that race 3 legged with the bums in that field. I'm not so sure he REALLY liked it, because he certainly didn't run his fastest in that race, rather than he just was a layup against that group.

Sadly, something was amiss in the Pegasus. He stopped like a hooker at a Jersey Turnpike rest stop at the top of the stretch. I'm hoping it was just he bled or something.

I dont agree with this. You have Pine Island and Balletto who should love and need every inch of the track, you have Healthy Addiction on a roll coming from the West... she's classy and seasoned.

Then you have Fleet Indian, Spun Sugar, and Happy Ticket who have all proven themselves one time or another to be real dangerous when given the chance.

And then you have the unknown of Asi Siempre.

It might not be a full field, but each member is distinguished in their own right. And almost anybody could make a case for any one of these mares to win.

High Finance to take this one!!!!!!

I'm going with Midnight Lute...or 'Fish Sticks' which was what we called him as a baby...

I think the Distaff will be a fantastic race this year, I just don't think any of the horses are especially good. I like Pine Island and Balletto for the exacta but they aren't exactly throwing 100+ Beyers up left and right like Gorella, Film Maker, Honey Ryder, Wait a While, and Asi Siempre are in the FM Turf division. My point is we shouldn't be too surprised that the sixth or seventh best horse in the FM Turf division can beat the second or third best horse in the Distaff division on a track that plays to both turf and dirt.

Oh man that's too many horses!! Obviously polytrack isn't working out! Calgon take me away to JCGC day! Whooo now we're talkin!

Yeah, Keeneland's always had a problem getting big fields, I mean who wants to run in $50,000 maiden races....

Here are the brisnet PP's

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...cher_58962.pdf

I'll take a shot with Court Folly. He has been working well at the slow
and deep training track at Skylight Training Center in Kentucky.

I was wondering where those workouts were coming from.

Nice field...I've been staring at the PP's forever! LOL

Big difference in a grade 3 and a maiden race. :rolleyes:

I like High Finance best.