Puzzling Kentucky Derby Picture
 

OK, so we are inside of five weeks to the Kentucky Derby and things could not be any stranger. We have a Louisiana bred, a California bred, and a New York bred as the winners of their respective last prep races. In Florida and Arkansas the latest preps have produced winners that never started until 2014 and will need to overcome the curse of Apollo. Did I mention that we have what looks like a legitimate contender from Dubai, although he's never raced on dirt. In Kentucky, we have a horse that has never won a race on dirt. There is still hope that things can change drastically in the next couple of weeks, but I can not remember things being this cloudy with less than five weeks to the Run for the Roses.

Do you feel like the "new system" is playing a big part in this, or just one of those years?

Either way, I agree, it should be quite the interesting Derby and TC Chase this year.

Sounds like someone is researching the oaks/ derby double ! :$:

Ramsey said yesterday that Bobby's Kitten is going in the Bluegrass, another one that would be first time dirt.

Larry, if Cairo Prince does not get in , it might be time to reconsider the new system.

Bill, Yeah - Right now it's Untapable / ALL - Oaks / Derby Double

Shannon, He's definitely has a shot in the Blue Frass.

It's is amazing to me how many of the preps have been won going wire to wire.

Candy Boy's RBL stake and Intense Holiday Risen star are the only mid pack closers to win a derby prep that I have seen.
Constitution won stalking the leader yesterday.
Cairo rince won with a nice staking trip in the Holy Bull.

Maybe Tonalist will add a nice closer to the mix with a win or placing in the Wood.

Gus.. If Cairo Prince doesn't get in the Derby, it's not an indictment of the point system, it's an indictment of the way he's been campaigned.

Good point. They got cute and it could backfire.

But doesn't some of that have to do with the point system and its Grossly overweighting of late Derby Preps. In my opinion they need to weight by Grade and start with Breeders cup Juvenile. A Grade 1 Win in the Juvenile should be the same as A Grade 1 Win in March. For the most part we have had lower field sizes until late Feb and some very large ones after.

I could not disagree more.

Horses that have run in the top four in the BC have done quite well in the derby

:tro::tro::tro:

the crazy thing about Cairo Prince, is IF he makes the field-

Say he took care of business yesterday, he'd probably be the luke-warm favorite for the Derby (CC, Samraat or Social I could maybe add their names to that with wins).

Now Cairo will be 2nd off the shelf. How flat he was yesterday was a little concerning. But! Now he has value if you think he'll be much more fit 2nd-off. Unless he becomes the Derby Wise-guy horse (which he might), seriously I think 15-1 is very realistic on him now. He left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths yesterday, and with how wide-open the field is, the odds will be spread out enough that you might get that price. At anything over 10-1 do you guys give him a chance?

No doubt, they have had a nice run of success.

IF he gets in, I think you get every bit of 15-1.

just when you guys didn't think you could roll your eyes at the stuff I post on here anymore, this one will test that-

So Godolphin owns most of Cairo now-
The theme at the Dubai Carnival the past few months is these really talented graded/group stakes-placed horses that run really long distances 1st off very long layoffs (some as long as a year off)... and most of the time they're flat and not the most fit. But 2nd-off the layoff they wake up. And, that's pretty much the case anywhere, I get that.

I'm not saying that this was the plan. They obviously wanna get in the Derby, and they might've royally messed that up deciding to skip the FoY. But if he gets in, I don't think he'll flatten out as badly. Not only that, we're all speculating a hot pace. Yesterday Wildcat Red had it pretty easy up front. Just saying there are a lot of arguments for major improvement IF he makes it, and now you'll get the odds to back up those arguments.

Usually when someone makes such a statement as you have they would provide a scintilla of reasoning why they feel that way. Sorry if I have such high expectations.

you need to run in order to get points...lighting up the clocks in the am for months doesn't do you any good earning your way into the gate and that's exactly what they tried doing with Cairo prince

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the best 3yo comes out of the Wood Memorial or Arkansas Derby.

That's not going out on a limb, but I'm wondering at this point if after seeingnthose races if anything will be any clearer to us lol

Some good horses in Santa Anita derby next weekend

Betting against Wood winners has been working out pretty well in the 21st century. i will reserve judgement until I get the final derby PP's though.

Yup, run your damn horses, they gambled and lost.

and this affects Cairo Prince's issue? Where did he finish in that race?

No problem on your expectations.

1. Many horses are much different animals in May than November. Much more so than the difference between March and May anyways. IC's point(though sarcastic) about how poorly the top 4 finishers from the BCJ do in the Derby is spot on.

2. Horses getting enough points in the BCJ to already get into the Derby will promote connections to go with even less preps than they do now IMO.

3. The quality of horses you have to beat in a March prep is much better than a November G1, which also makes them more significant.

I pretty much ignore IC as I have never seen him post a real bet. Yadda Yadda Yadda but never see him in the selections thread. Where you and I disagree is that I see the current system as encouraging less preps since the real preps don't start until mid Feb. i think they can structure the system where a G1 or G2 win would be nearly automatic but a G3 not. As horse playerI want to see a meaningful prep schedule to look forward to from Breeders cup to Derby.

That's ok.

As I've never seen you post anything interesting, or even something insightful, I feel the same way towards you.

:)

Cool I'm good with that but at least I have the balls to post my opinions however bad they are in the selections thread. You however seem incapable of leaving the Paddock but seem to know everything about everything. Good luck when you finally decide to put down a bet.

so when I post all my wacky ideas in here, but don't post in the selection threads... because most of the time I don't pre-cap races until I get to the track, my opinions are invalid too?

god I love you guys... all of you :)

Sorry. We will keep a seat open for you on selections.

Some people need to impose rigid conditions on themselves to function in life. Without adequate structure, some people implode, thus they need to simplify things. We all do it to some degree.

The funny thing about what jms said is that for about twenty years, horse racing was my religion, and I was as devout a follower as one could imagine. It's very possible that I've placed more bets and gambled more money than he has.

Me and you are on the same page there. The old system was broke because horses that finished 2nd in either the BCJ or Delta Jackpot were already in the KD, no matter what they did afterward. However, the new system doesn't seem to be doing any better in terms of making horses run as 3-year-olds, which I thought was kind of the goal of it.

regarding where the horses are bred, as trainers have pointed out, horses don't know where they were born.

I don’t think this matters, at all.
I Want Revenge would have been a heavy Derby favorite until he was injured. Eskendereya was a stone cold slam dunk triple crown winner until he was injured. **** happens. Ill tell you now, no one excites me this year, at all. I pray Candys Boy and Hoppertunity destroy California Chrome next weekend. Those are the only 2 horses I want at all as of now, maybe Bayern if he gets it together in Arkansas.

:tro: I'm curious to know the graded stakes earnings chart and how it compares to the points system. Who'd be in one way but not in the other, for instance.


It might not just be a plan that backfired. Maybe he really needed that time off. Did he lose weight off the last race? The thing is if he does need time off between races to that degree (and this wasn't just a one time thing where they were trying to get strategic), he's got no business going in the Derby. If you win, you feel bound to go to the Preakness and maybe that's not the best thing for the horse. Aim for things like the Preakness or Haskell.

I'm kinda bummed about Spot's finish. I wanted me some Zito in the Derby, plus the PR for a horse named Spot is kinda great.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the two best 3yo's come out of the Santa Anita Derby.

Agree. Candy Boy and Hoppertunity.

I don't think Cairo Prince gets in the gate, and that isn't an indictment of the system, it is the fault of the trainer. Leave him in the barn and you risk the horse being flat or a bad trip. I don't think he's all that anyway.

I believe there are 11 horses that would be in with old system that are currently out with new system

current cut off 20 points.....

horses with more than 140k graded earnings but under 20 points.

Ride on Curlin
Tamarando
Strong Mandate
Rise Up
Giovanni Boldini
Candy Boy
In Trouble
Noble Moon
Conquest Titan
Dance With Fate
Casiguapo

As it stands right now Pletcher, Baffert, and Maker will have half the field covered.

Horse Racing is turning into Nascar right before our eyes...but without the fan base.