Honor Code staying home for ALW; Wood to follow
 

WED 8th (4:39)

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Allowance | Purse: $75,000

1 Social Inclusion Contreras L 119
2 We're All Set Leyva J C 119 L
3 Specialnightaction Davis D 114 L
4 Honor Code Castellano J J 124 L
5 Ta Bueno Osorio J Jr 109 L

As floated on ATR, Honor Code passing Rebel for ALW Wednesday. Wood Memorial follows..

Pretty confident with this move all in for the wood

The show pool will be interesting :)

If things play out just right, the assclowns at CD might really be doing a great job of screwing themselves into a lackluster Derby.

Many of the top prospects are now to the point of having to have no excuse last races before the Derby.

Shared Belief has no points. Not that I think he's even aimed there anymore.

Top Billing is way behind.

Honor Code is going to have to run 1-2 in the Wood most likely.

Havana? Bayern? Hell, even the Lukas horse still has to earn points, though he's probably going to run 2-3 times until then.

The Wood is not going to be a walkover for HC.

It's been an exhilarating triple crown series to this point. So many memorable Derby preps.

The best of it being the two legendary confrontations between fellow NY Breds Samraat and Uncle Sigh. Two races that will long live in racing lore.

Connections of Cairo prince couldn't be happier

Are you kidding me? This is a joke

Unfair to devalue Uncle Sigh, Samraat and now Cal Chrome because they dont have well recognized pages. Those 3 are good horses and consider Uncle Sigh's trainer is the opposite of good. How would Uncle Sigh be in the hands of a real 3 year old classic conditioner.

Anyone look at the pp's for this race yet?
I love Honor Code, Im a huge fan....
But he could get beat in here, the 1 is very fast. And there is no other pace, at all.

With Top Billing out, I think Shug said Honor Code could replace him in the Florida Derby.

Shug might be indifferent to the result... paid workout?

yes it is a paid work out, he will run good good but will not win, he will then run in the Florida Derby, get hurt and be retired, he has done enough.

He hasn't won a Grade I yet, and his connections know it. Had Honor Code gotten up in the Champagne last year, we might be having a different discussion.

Here is my analysis for the race.

It should be a pretty tough battle between Social Inclusion and Honor Code.

Pretty much agree. Obviously I think the world of Honor Code. He has been my Derby horse since Saratoga. IF he runs by the 1 and I lose $50 on a 5x5xSocial Inclusion spread pick 3, I wont really mind.

Steve's going to have to change the name of the forum because the Derby Trail won't exist at this rate.
The ultra conservative handling of these with these 3yo's is taking any fun out of what was once a great spring of racing. I remember when it was a matter of 3 or 4 stakes preps with no more than 4 week spacing from final G1 prep to the Derby. Then you started having some go in with 6 wks spacing when the Florida Derby moved dates. Next thing you know we're setting a Derby prep schedule with a one turn stakes and one serious prep. Now we have one of the winter book favorites opting for mid March allowance race and one traditional prep.
I know there are some complaints about the point system- there always will be- I just want the best to go out and prove it on the track with multiple efforts instead of just trying to pop a big one. One of these very highly regarded colts will have a bad day and miss out. Then we'll have voices complaining about the best not being in. Sorry, but you have a chance and the same set of rules everyone knows on the front end, so no crying over getting a rough trip 2 day fever a that keeps you home.

I don't know what the solution to the derby system is but I think the negatives of the current system are being made very apparent this derby season. I understand that the derby is a race unlike any race all year from a handicapping perspective but I think there should be at least SOME handicapping involved. If the derby would be run tomorrow I wouldn't have the slightest idea who to play. You need horses to run in big races for people to fall for them and support them in the future, for little factoids to be produced to use in support of your selection.

I don't disagree with what you're saying, but I think Honor Code is a bit of an extreme case. This looks almost exactly like what happened with Gemologist a few years ago, where a GP allowance race kept him from going to OP for the Rebel and he later returned in the Wood. Honor Code had a setback, otherwise I think it's safe to say he would have returned in the FOY, which was the plan from the beginning.

The trend towards 2 preps is also well developed. Barbaro, Street Sense and Big Brown took care of that years ago. In fact, last year was the first time the Derby winner had more than two starts at 3 since Barbaro, whose 3rd start deserved an asterisk.

I hope a high profile horse misses the Derby because his trainer left him in the barn and passed a race that would have given him enough points. Giving lightly raced 3YOs 60 day breaks after one start is absolutely ludicrous (Cairo Prince/Candy Boy) and the people doing it are playing with fire.

What do you mean negatives of the points system? How is what's happened so far supported the notion the points system is a bad thing? If anything, it's exposed the risk of the recent trend of less preps for 3yo's looking to make the gate. If you get squeezed at the start in the last round of preps and finish 5th, you could be in some serious trouble without the prior points to help you make the race.

i agree.

but i do wish they would make a minimum number of points necessary to get in the gate. if you have a horse win a prep worth enough points, they can skip further races and still glide into the gate on derby day.

I don't believe they would do it, but in a points system, I'd lower the number of points awarded for any one race, thereby almost requiring you to WIN a traditional March/April G1 route or hit the board in multiple events.

whether by demanding a threshold, or a number of starts, or changing the awarded points, i just wish they'd find a way to get them to race these horses more. of course, a rise in purses might help...

The Derby points system "fixed" an issue that didnt exist.
Fact is with all the big point races the last 60 or so days the trend of lighter campaigns will not change. Horses will start later and later because winning the traditional 2 year old and early season preps are pretty meaningless.

You have to remember that each potential horse is owned for the most part by different people, all following the same script often laid out by trainers who are up to their eyes in contenders.

Just wait till some unraced at 2 horse wins

Dont forget that many of the power trainers subscribe to the theory that horses shouldnt run that often and they only have so many races in them. Of course a primary reason they feel this way is it helps them get their vast amount of horses in the same conditions raced as opposed to actually believing that horses cant race every month or 9 times a year.

you've hit it right on with this. too few trainers with the top horses, and they have to find a way to not tick off an owner by having one of the other horses in the barn beat their horse and knock him out of contention. there's something wrong when one trainer is saddling 1/4th of the derby field.

Maybe they should vote for derby entrants? Then you would never be guaranteed a spot to coast from...

I liked it better when they ran crap races like this as exhibitions with no betting. You see a lot of those scanning the book Champions.

Ill be hung up at work tomorrow, so I wont be betting the #1.
Now I hope Honor Code blows him off the racetrack.

Will the horse on the rail be more than 6:5?

I don't see how he could. It is a 2 and a quarter horse race. There is zero chance any of the three that have a sliver of a chance will offer value.

What will the will-pay be on a 4-2 exacta?

What? You mean Ta Bueno isn't really going to be 8/1 and they're only going to bet the other 3??? Nooooooooo

WOW . That was impressive - New track record

It took a new track record to beat HC

I don't think there was a gold rail or speed bias on FOY day. The horses that won on the rail were supposed to win except this guy, and he just validated the performance. I hope they don't rush him to Derby because he looks like he's got a big future.

He didn't run particularly well, but he did not have to today. April 5th at Aqueduct will be his day. I think this race sets him up perfectly for the Wood. I suspected going in that Social Inclusion was pretty good, he is pretty good. But he is also dressed up now because he just got a cupcake no pressure trip.

111 BSF for Social Inclusion per Privman on Twitter.

Is social inclusion triple crown nominated?

Yes