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The hype on Top Billing has gone overboard
He is all I ever read about on various social media sites. Yes, he's a closer. His trainer is old school.
He ran three good races, but Commissioner beat him fair and square two starts back, and I doubt Commissioner would be the favorite against Top Billing if they met on the Derby trail again as I don't read that much hype on him. Going forward, Top Billing is going to be overbet in every race. |
I believe he is just OK right now, but obviously has room for improvement. I will add this, I don't like anything that ran behind him yesterday. Monopolize proved he sucks, Surfing USA will be a sprinter. Nothing else from that race is anything.
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I'm sure the hype is a bit unwarranted, but I think he's a better horse than Commissioner.
That might mean absolutely nothing, however. |
He was much the best against Commissioner.
He will clearly relish added distance. It's likely he's a better race horse than his much much more hyped stablemate, Honor Code. This horse has the look of something that could be pretty rare. |
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He does, however, have a pretty swift turn of foot. |
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Honor Code is a monster. I think the top two from the Holy Bull really flatter him.
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I don't know what you saw. |
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He's a really nice horse, but because of his pedigree, his catchy running style and his universally beloved trainer, he is frighteningly overrated at this point. |
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"Much the best" is an overused phrase. His pedigree, while interesting, isn't that exciting in my eyes. I HATE his running style, and almost never like horses that run like he does. I do, however, think he's got a terrific turn of foot. His trainer? I think he's overrated and does receive hype. Quote:
You may interpret me as being sloppy, when it's really more just being lazy about explaining my views on Shared Belief and Top Billing. I've said all along that Shared Belief is most likely unsound and I am not even the slightest bit surprised he's already having issues. Whopdee doo about him not running on dirt yet. Here's a list for you, see if you can identify what these following horses have in common. By the way, I'm fairly confident this horse will like dirt anyways, but here goes... 2006 Barbaro 2007 Street Sense 2008 Big Brown 2009 Mine That Bird 2011 Animal Kingdom 2012 I'll Have Another Now to Top Billing. What makes him more overhyped than Honor Code?? For starters, how about otherwise sharp people thinking that he deserved the Eclipse more than Shared Belief? All he did was win his MSW, come in second with a really nice showing to a pretty decent horse in the Champagne, and then he won ugly in the Remsen. Granted, Top Billing hasn't beaten anything yet, but trust me when I say this, they have not cranked him up yet. I'm also almost certain that the barn considers him to be the better of the two horses. Did you watch his race Saturday? I thought I saw, despite a slower time, a significantly more impressive performance than what Cairo Prince did later on in the card. This horse has so much upside it's scary. By the way, has anyone ever seen those silks before that his jock had on for that race? I didn't recognize them. Did Farish change his silks? Contrary to what you feel I believe about Honor Code, he was my earliest Derby pick (until the Hollywood Prevue), so I do like him. I think it's a bad sign that he has only one workout (3F) this month/year, and see him as an unlikely threat for the Derby. |
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As of today, I think Cairo Prince is the most underrated. We are all talking about the Shug horses, or Shared Belief. But Prince is blowing races open and winning off easily, his only loss being too a horse most people have very highly rated, Honor Code. Only issue I see is he got better before everyone, and everyone else will catch up. Hopefully he continues to move forward.
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I may benefit from watching Cairo Prince's race the other day one more time, but to me, the end part of the race wasn't all that pretty.
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He's had one work, a slow 3f work, this entire month, and you expect him to run in three weeks?
I guess it's possible. |
The thing not being mentioned is it seems to be a very nice crop of colts. Not sure why any of us feel we can determine who is better then who after 3 races. The good news is there will be some answers to lots of questions coming up.
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Freddy, part of the idea behind having a message board/forums about horse racing, is to speculate on the future.
It's called, 'having fun'. If you are only into reading what other people think about things that already have happened, I suggest you stick to watching a bunch of hot winded talking head types on TV. Me, I trust my opinion and don't usually need to hear what other people think about what I just saw. I do enjoy trying to see what the future holds for upcoming horses. |
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Yeah, well, I was saying that while people were complaining months ago about how this is another bad and boring crop.
So there. |
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Exciting time of year. |
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http://www.courier-journal.com/artic...nclick_check=1 |
Obviously something was amiss with him.
What's he coming back in, the Florida Derby? Against his stablemate? |
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Well...what does everyone think now? I know he had a tough post, but his lack of early speed really sucks.
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He has a turn of foot but ya gotta win...he might be a clunk up superfecta type
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I didn't watch the races today, but most people are tweeting that there was a big time speed bias. Just watching the replay, he closed hard into that bias. That should count for something.
Overall, it seemed with the Gulfstream 3yo crop this year, it's very top-heavy, with not much depth. Will be interesting to see who goes in Florida Derby. |
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The track did favor speed, but there was a big pace in Top Billings race. He put in an OK run and is what he is, OK. He's still the second best 3yr old in Shugs barn. Nothing today changed that. I am a little concerned with how he flattened out late, maybe he doesn't want as much distance as some people think.
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The pace wasn't that strong, and clearly the bias was a MUCH bigger factor than the pace. Also, there is a big difference between naturally dropping back and running into a hot pace later and being drug back and yanked over to the rail to save ground.
Again, I'm no big fan, but he had no shot today from that post on that track. |
I highly doubt he was fully cranked to win this race as well.
I thought what was most interesting was the 1. He looked like he was under some urging pretty early in the race. |
I am just a minor player, once a month at most. I played today and, unfortunately, got crushed so I'm not sure my opinion means anything. But I thought the bias was clearly evident. I also thought there were two horses going forward that I wanted to play on the derby trail after today at Gulfstream. They were Mexikoma and Top Billing. I have never been a fan of Mexikoma but he closed into moderate fractions (24.31, 47.71, 1.11.03) and did so against the bias. With where he was positioned in the race coupled with how the track was playing I think that pretty much eliminated him from win contention. All that said, I thought he ran lights out and will be looking forward to playing him back next time, depending, of course, on where he shows up. Top Billing had faster fractions to close into (23.03, 46.25, 1.10.13) but he had much better horses to close down and had every right to tire with his trip. I thought he was a winner with an eighth of a mile to run so it was disappointing to see him not be able to close it down but I think this was the perfect prep and so long as the Gulfstream strip is not a speedway come Florida Derby day I will be playing him. If people think he is the Derby frontrunner I don't see why they should back off of that after today. The only knock I can find is the way East Hall ran. The Pletcher horses, on the other hand, looked dreadful.
Being a novice I am interested if others saw these races the same as I did or if I am just someone who doesn't know the horses! I appreciate any feedback. As for the Risen Star, I think those horses are not even worth discussing. Thanks in advance. I need all the help I can get. |
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