BC '13 NOTEBOOK: Juvenile; Juvy Fillies; Juvy Turf; Juvy Filly Turf
 

FRI 7th (2:25) Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1)

1 Mile (Turf) | Open | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 1 All Cash Saez L Lukas D Wayne 122 30-1
2 2 Giovanni Boldini Moore R L O'Brien Aidan P 122 7-2
3 3 Got Shades Stevens G L Pish Danny 122 30-1
4 4 Outstrip (GB) Smith M E Appleby Charles 122 4-1
5 5 Bobby's Kitten Castellano J J Brown Chad C 122 5-2
6 6 Home School (IRE) Bejarano R O'Neill Doug 122 Blk-On 30-1
7 7 Aotearoa Nakatani C S Powell Leonard 122 12-1
8 8 Bon Accord Rosario J Sano Antonio 122 20-1
9 9 Wilshire Boulevard (IRE) Buick W T O'Brien Aidan P 122 8-1
10 10 Ontology Gutierrez Mario Callaghan Simon 122 30-1
11 11 Poker Player Hill C Catalano Wayne M 122 12-1
12 12 Shamshon (IRE) Hughes R Hannon Richard 122 12-1
13 13 Bashart Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 122 6-1

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / Daily Double Pick 4 (Races 7-8-9-10)



FRI 9th (3:50) Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1)

1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 1 Nesso Garcia M Belvoir Vann 122 20-1
2 2 Al Thakhira (GB) Moore R L Botti Marco 122 6-1
3 3 Colonel Joan Talamo J Harty Eoin 122 20-1
4 4 Kitten Kaboodle Velazquez J R Brown Chad C 122 12-1
5 5 Granny Mc's Kitten Castellano J J Brown Chad C 122 20-1
6 6 Vorda (FR) Peslier O Sogorb Philippe 122 4-1
7 7 Street Sailing Garcia Alan Mettee Richard C 122 15-1
8 8 Chriselliam (IRE) Hughes R Hills Charles 122 6-1
9 9 Dancing House Smith M E McLaughlin Kiaran P 122 20-1
10 10 Clenor (IRE) Bejarano R O'Neill Doug 122 8-1
11 11 Ready to Act Rosario J Brown Chad C 122 8-1
12 12 Testa Rossi (FR) Lezcano J Brown Chad C 122 8-1
13 13 Sky Painter Saez L McLaughlin Kiaran P 122 15-1
14 14 My Conquestadory Da Silva E R Casse Mark 122 9-2

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11) / Daily Double Super High Five



SAT 4th (12:05) Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)

1 1/16 Miles | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 1 Artemis Agrotera Lezcano J Hushion Michael E 122 3-1
2 2 Rosalind Rosario J McPeek Kenneth G 122 8-1
3 3 Designer Legs Talamo J Stewart Dallas 122 30-1
4 4 Secret Compass Velazquez J R Baffert Bob 122 6-1
5 5 Ria Antonia Castellano J J Englehart Jeremiah C 122 Blk-On 30-1
6 6 Concave Gutierrez Mario O'Neill Doug 122 15-1
7 7 Untapable Napravnik R Asmussen Steven M 122 5-1
8 8 Scandalous Act Nunez E O O'Connell Kathleen 122 8-1
9 9 Sweet Reason Solis A Gyarmati Leah 122 5-2
10 10 She's a Tiger Stevens G L Bonde Jeff 122 6-1

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / Daily Double Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)



SAT 8th (2:43) Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1)

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 1 Smarty's Echo Baird E T Smith Anne P 122 20-1
2 2 Dance With Fate Bejarano R Eurton Peter 122 8-1
3 3 Mexikoma Garcia Alan Mettee Richard C 122 12-1
4 4 New Year's Day Garcia M Baffert Bob 122 8-1
5 5 Bond Holder Gutierrez Mario O'Neill Doug 122 8-1
6 6 Tap It Rich Smith M E Baffert Bob 122 6-1
7 7 Cleburne Nakatani C S Romans Dale 122 12-1
8 8 Conquest Titan Da Silva E R Casse Mark 122 30-1
9 9 Rum Point Maldonado E O'Neill Doug 122 30-1
10 10 We Miss Artie Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 122 8-1
11 11 Medal Count Albarado R J Romans Dale 122 20-1
12 12 Diamond Bachelor Leparoux J R Biancone Patrick L 122 12-1
13 13 Havana Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 122 5-2
14 14 Strong Mandate Rosario J Lukas D Wayne 122 6-1

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) / Daily Double

Alberts Hope isn't in training.

Should be entertaining to what Tap It Rich ride himself in that race.

No Bahnah? :(

:o

Mike Smith

Maybe.. Still accruing lists.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, Grade 1, $1 million, 1 mile turf, 2-year-old fillies

- My Conquestadory (Mark Casse) -- Juvenile Fillies (2)
- Vorda-FR (Philippe Sogorb
- Clenor-IRE (Doug O'Neill
- Testa Rossi-FR (Chad Brown
- Sky Painter (Kiaran McLaughlin
- Lien on Kitten (Wayne Catalano
- Kitten Kaboodle (Chad Brown
- Granny Mc's Kitten (Chad Brown
- Nesso (Vann Belvoir
- Colonel Joan (Eoin Harty
- Miss Machiavelli (Keith Desormeaux
- Miss Frost (Tom Albertrani
- Pleasant Miss (Jerry Hollendorfer
- Duff One (Gary Contessa[/quote]

I know that everyone says that My Conquestadory is a "cinch" in the Juvy Fillies Turf, but I luv Clenor (IRE) in this spot....

I certainly don't think My Conquestadory is a cinch. She is going to be overbet, and that Woodbine win wasn't that great considering the lack of quality in the field. The Keeneland race also seemed to come back slow.

Based on Casse's dreadful BC performances, I will be throwing out My Conquestadory in whatever race she runs in. Maybe she is his Squirtle Squirt? I doubt it.

Hard to know much about the Summer field until Go Bro, Matador and Dig Alittle Deeper run back out of it, no? But note that Tropic of Artie -- 5th behind her in the Summer as a MDN -- just got beat a zot last week at KEE by Mygalsal who in turn had been beaten in his previous start by next out Bourbon winner Poker Player.

You didn't bother to actually look at the records at all I'm guessing. Mark Casse is 0/14 in the Breeders' Cup and as a point of reference, Christophe Clement is 0/22, Ken McPeek 0/20, John Sadler 0/28. Frankel took 32 starters to get a Cup win. No one has a dreadful Cup record considering the limited number of opportunities, quality of the participants and random nature of the event.

Steve, Matador is being entered today for Sundays Cup and Saucer at Woodbine. I think he has a big shot.

Thank You, I knew most of those but did not realize that about Frankel.

Yes you are guessing. Simply not winning is one thing. Having horses that look great on paper and than can't even hit the board is another.

I believe that the Breeders Cup is like the "Academy Awards" - - that is, just getting a horse there confirms a fine training effort on the part of the conditioner....I don't put much emphasis on the trainer's win or ITM % for horses in the BC

Based on this discussion, you guys have set my wager for the Juvy Fillies Turf - I'm boxing Clenor (IRE) and My Conquestadory in the exacta....

You didn't look it his record, you just flippantly snarled at Casse and his operation.

So let's see who "looked great on paper and couldn't hit the board"?

End Sweep in '94 Sprint at 44-1?
Jealous Forum in '01 J-Filly at 77-1?
Higher World in '04 J-Filly at 61-1?
Skip Code in '06 Juvenile at 61-1?
Clearly Foxy in '07 J-Filly at 17-1?
Sealy Hill in '08 F&M Turf at 49-1 (2nd, beaten less than a length)
Skipadate in '08 J-Turf at 9-1? (11th as 6th choice)
Delightful Mary in '10 J-Filly at 11-1? (3rd as 6th choice)
Prospective in '11 Juvenile at 41-1?
Northern Passion in '11 J-Filly at 11-1? (7th as 4th choice)
Spring Venture in '12 J-Filly at 7-2? (Bled)
Spring in the Air in '12 J-Filly Turf at 6-1? (5th as 5th choice)
Delegation in '12 Dirt Mile at 19-1? (3rd, beaten 4L)
Pool Play in '12 Classic at 39-1? (8th as 11th choice)

Who was supposed to hit the board among the 7 runners 39-1 or higher? (As it happens, Sealy Hill did and nearly won..)

Among those that were 'bet', Spring Venture (7-2) bled, Spring in the Air chased in the merry-go-round race last year, Delightful Mary 'hit the board' while Skipadate and Northern Passion legitimately underperformed.

The reality of Casse's record is that it's pretty typical. If Sealy Hill gets past Forever Together, his record puts him in the top 30 of trainers in the Cup.

You're simply wrong about his performers being 'dreadful'. In fact, you could say on balance, his runners have over-performed based on their prices in the Cup.

I'm not that familiar with Casse, why the 7yr gap between starts?

Wasn't the Bourbon run on synth and not turf?

Yes..

Thank you for the research. When a horse runs poorly it doesn't always mean they bled but that is trotted out as the go to response....I should have been more specific. AS I've said here elsewhere, his horses run well at Keeneland and Woodbine. He is simply a different trainer elsewhere for whatever reason including turf races. This is not a shot at his operation this is simply what someone who bets should take into account. The 10-1 region can be considered a shortish price in the BC, by the way, when you have fields as big as they have been. The last few Cups have been at SA and I have been unimpressed with how Casse's horses have run. Not to mention Delegation was a suck up 3rd in that race b/c the jock trip on Gaines horse was an abortion....He will have an even money favorite in whatever race he goes with My Conques....time to put up.

I hate no resolution so I will give you an offer you can't refuse Steve. I don't care what race she goes in or who her competition is. I will give you a minimum of 2-1 on My Conques to win for a 100 bucks. She goes off higher, you get the track odds. She goes off lower, which is likely, you still get 2-1. These are friend prices. Deal or no deal.

I was impressed with Strong Mandate at Saratoga. Was not to happy with his performance in the Champagne. I know he broke on top and the rider reached up and rated him out of the race. But after watching the replay this colt did not pick up the bit when the real race started, and actually drifted out badly through the stretch. Read that Lukas is changing to Rosario for the BC, understandably. Going to have to see how he breezes over the SA surface before i make up my mind about using him in the Juvy..

I couldn't care less about My Conquistadory. My response was to your flippant and erroneous assessment of Casse.

I supplemented my assessment of Casse for you, ie, that his horses run at some tracks and not others...see the Pacific Classic this year as an example.

I think it is very difficult to not be personally attached to some of the trainers when you have them on the radio all the time. I understand that....It is ok for me or anyone else to have an opinion about a trainer's runners without it being flippant. Fact is, he's been dead money the last few years with runners at SA....and he has surely had 2 yr old talent to compete....I wish you had taken the bet. I needed a new pair of shoes.

I guess Churchill Downs does not Count over the Last 3 Spring meets we are winning at a 24% Clip 18 wins out of 76 Starts. Which includes a Grade 1.

Yes, one of the ones....though less so on the dirt.

Whether or not Steve is friends with Mark Casse doesn't change that he used facts to completely refute your claims, which you cannot, and did not, back up with facts. As someone who spends an awful lot of time looking up trainer statistics, and trying to decide which ones are worth offering to the public, I can tell you that you need to be careful with them. The first thing I often look at is the odds of the horses in the sample. Just as you don't want a sample skewed by one long priced winner, you don't want a poor statistic where the vast majority were longshots.

You don't want to bet Casse horses in the BC, fine, and personally I think My Conquestadory has the look of one of the more overrated horses I have seen recently, but none of that changes that Steve gave FACTS...you did not. At least have the decency to say thanks, and not take some personal shot at him.

What personal shot? I said thank you for the research....Odds in BC races are all over the place, that proves little as to a horses chances. Look at what Romans wins with and doesn't in the BC....The last few years at SA, Casse's horses have stunk and he had highly ranked 2 yr olds.

By the way, when I used facts to dispute your rebate claims last week, I missed where you had the decency to admit you were wrong?

Does any know what Casse's record is at Santa Anita overall non breeders cup? If I recall correctly when I lived out there he would come down to the winter meet with Husbands or Ramsammy and did not do very well.

Randall better watch out you don't want to be called stupid by BTW!!

Not headed to the BC. She's entered for the 8th race at Delta on Friday.

Has anyone already done the work to identify 2YOs that haven't raced with Lasix? And how much do you plan to incorporate that into your selections now that we can compare to last year at least.

Kendalls boy in juvy?
 

Steve, I didn't see Kendall's boy in your juvy list. Thought his run behind Havana was a good one. Broke maiden at Churchill and, I believe, didn't like poly and rain in the breeders futurity.

GARY YOUNG'S CLOCKER J-JF-JT-JFT NOTES:


J-DANCE WITH FATE (10/19) 6 furlongs in 1.12.4: Nice looking horse, good moving horse, but distance limitations make me feel he’s a 1-turn horse. I don’t want him at a 1-1/16 miles but this was a good work.


J-NEW YEAR’S DAY 5 furlongs in 59.1, splits of 24.1, 35.3, and a gallop out in 1:12.4: Had a small boo-boo and didn’t run in Frontrunner. Worked good, broke in front of older workmate. Worked good on a fast track. I could see him running okay on Breeders’ Cup Day. Don’t like the fact he missed his last audition but he’s not a bad horse.


JF-SECRET COMPASS (10/21) 5 furlongs in 1.00.3, splits of 37.1 and a gallop out in 1.13.3: In company with Miss Personality. After her last prep, I thought Secret Compass might be one of the few local horses who might make some noise in the 2-year-old races.


JF-SHE’S A TIGER (10/20) 6 furlongs in 1.10.4, splits in 45.2: There are fast works you love, fast ones you like and fast works you can’t wait to bet against. This is one you can’t wait to bet against. She threw Stevens into the backseat at the pole and then just finished very average.


JF-FASCINATING (10/21) 5 furlongs in 1.00.1, splits of 36.3, and a gallop out in 1.14.00: Worked with maiden Streaming, started 2 behind and stayed 2 behind. I’ve been on this filly all along. She was disappointing in her last prep to me, but she can run.


JFT-CLENOR (10/18) 4 furlongs in 47.1, splits of 23.4: Bejarano up, looked good, not overly imposing filly, but nothing to knock.


JT-DIAMOND BACHELOR (10/17) 5 furlongs in 59.2, splits in 34.2: Started 7L behind sacrificial lamb and blew past him; he was pulling more than you’d like to see. Has been on the bit, and this pulling stuff has me very concerned. Fast early/slow late.

Bill,

He is not included as a contender on BC's list and I can't see how they go here after that Futurity, but I'll check with Amoss later this morning..

Breeders' Cup Juvenile, $2 million, 1-16 miles, 2 year olds

1- Havana (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz)
2- Tap It Rich (Bob Baffert/Mike Smith)
3- Bond Holder (Doug O'Neill/Mario Gutierrez)
4- Strong Mandate (D. Wayne Lukas/Joel Rosario)
5- Dance With Fate (Peter Eurton/Rafael Bejarano) -- Juvenile Turf
6- We Miss Artie (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
7- New Year's Day (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia)
8- Diamond Bachelor (Patrick Biancone/Julien Leparoux) -- Juvenile Turf
9- Cleburne (Dale Romans/Corey Lanerie)
10- Mexikoma (Rick Mettee/Shaun Bridgmohan)
11- Conquest Titan (Mark Casse/Eurica Da Silva)
12- Smarty's Echo (Anne Smith/E. T. Baird) -- Juvenile Turf
13- Medal Count (Dale Romans/TBD)



Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, $1 million, one mile turf, 2-year-old males

1- Bobby's Kitten (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano)
2- Bashart (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
3- Diamond Bachelor (Patrick Biancone/Julien Leparoux) -- Juvenile
4- Aotearoa (Leonard Powell/Corey Nakatani) -- Supplementing
5- Poker Player (Wayne Catalano/Channing Hill)
6- We Miss Artie (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) -- Juvenile
7- Bon Accord (Antonio Sano/Eddie Castro)
8- Giovanni Boldini (Aidan O'Brien/Joseph O'Brien)
9- Got Shades (Danny Pish/Joe Talamo)
10- All Cash (D. Wayne Lukas/Ricardo Santana)
11- Dance With Fate (Peter Eurton/Rafael Bejarano) -- Juvenile
12- Home School (Doug O'Neill/Mario Gutierrez)
13- Ontology (Simon Callahan/Rafael Bejarano)
14- Smarty's Echo (Anne Smith/E. T. Baird) -- Juvenile
15- Outstrip-GB (C. Appleby/M. Barzalona)
16- Wilshire Boulevard-IRE (A. O'Brien/Ryan Moore)
17- Shamshon-IRE (Richard Hannon/Frankie Dettori)
18- Arpinati-GB (Stefano Botti/TBD)



Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, mile and a sixteenth, 2-year-old fillies

1- Concave (Doug O'Neill/Patrick Valenzuela)
2- She's a Tiger (Jeff Bonde/Gary Stevens)
3- Untapable (Steve Asmussen/Rosie Napravnik)
4- Sweet Reason (Leah Gyarmati/Alex Solis)
5- Fascinating (Bob Baffert/Rafael Bejarano)
6- Artemis Agrotera (Mike Hushion/Jose Lezcano)
7- Secret Compass (Bob Baffert/TBD)
8- Rosalind (Ken McPeek/Joel Rosario)
9- Dancing House (Kiaran McLaughlin/Irad Ortiz)
10- Designer Legs (Dallas Stewart/Shaun Bridgmohan)
11- Ria Antonia (Jeremiah Englehart/Jose Ortiz)
12- Madly Truly (Mark Casse/P. Husbands)
13- Scandalous Act (Kathleen O'Connell/Eduardo Nunez)
14- My Conquestadory (Mark Casse/Eurico Da Silva) -- JF Turf (2)



Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, Grade 1, $1 million, 1 mile turf, 2-year-old fillies

1- My Conquestadory (Mark Casse) -- Juvenile Fillies
2- Vorda-FR (Philippe Sogorb/Olivier Peslier)
3- Clenor-IRE (Doug O'Neill/Rafael Bejarano)
4- Testa Rossi-FR (Chad Brown/Jose Lezcano)
5- Sky Painter (Kiaran McLaughlin/Luis Saez)
6- Kitten Kaboodle (Chad Brown/Alan Garcia)
7- Granny Mc's Kitten (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano)
8- Nesso (Vann Belvoir/Martin Garcia)
9- Colonel Joan (Eoin Harty/Joe Talamo)
10- Al Thakhira-GB (Marco Botti/TBD)
11- Chriselliam-IRE (C.B. Hills/Olivier Peslier)
12- Dancing House (Kiaran McLaughlin/Irad Ortiz) -- Juvenile Fillies
13- Flying Jib (Dermot Weld/Pat Smullen)
14- Ready to Act (Chad Brown/Rajiv Maragh)
15- Rosaling (Kenny McPeek/Victor Lebron)
16- Street Sailing (Bill Helmbrecht/TBD)

I would think that the post draws would make up Casse's mind over which direction to go with My Conquestadory. No brainer....

Have to think they go in the JF Turf. Don't think Casse want to run on dirt with no lasix.

What would Lasix have to do with it? There is no lasix in JF Turf either.

How about the fact that the filly is by Artie Schiller, and never been on dirt before?

oh no, i see medal count is listed in juvenile???? why on earth is romans doing this? I kinda like this horse as I said on an earlier thread. Steve, is there any reason why Romans is thinking about entering him?? seems WAY over his head at this point in his career and I just hope it doesn't ruin him. if he trains out in Calif. Steve can you let me know how it goes? just don't see a 2yr old Dynaformer doing well but I hope im wrong.