What did we learn...Pre BC?
 

Can sum up this past weekend's racing action as bizarre, weird, and mostly shitty.

So what did we learn heading toward racing's most important 2 days?

Belmont had a ridiculous inside speed bias?
Certain stellar horses were hardly "cranked up" for these events?
The Beldame winner is passing on a CA visit?
Fort Larned had a paid workout on Saturday night?
Martin Garcia gave Paynter a tour of Clocker's Corner?
The jockey's in the Flower Bowl were ok with Laughing going 1:16?
Little Mike continues to drive bettors to drink (more)?
The 3rd likeliest Baffert wins The Chandelier?

So what did we learn? Ok, Tiz Flirtatious and Beholder are real good. Less than 5 weeks from those massive pools and huge opportunities to boot. This past weekend kept things real murky.

Im not sure it was shitty.
Lets start with Belmont. Yes there was an obvious bias Saturday, but Im not sure how great it was. Race 2 the Klervich baby looked home free and was run down late.....
Royal Delta got beat, but POS made her move in the clear. And was 2-1, its not like anything crazy happened. Graydar who I was totally against was 4-5. Private Zone who I liked is clearly a fighter, and like Steve pointed out in another thread JP can wait on horses/hang. Private Zone was also 7-2 and picked on top by many, including Serling. JCGC was the only price and its not like it was totally crazy. Ron the Greek won the Big Cap last year and beat MMM at Gulfstream. He also won the Foster beating Wise Dan. So yes he was off form, but he also throws a big race. I believe Serling said there was no way he should have been 20x the price of Orb.
Lets go to Fort Larned next.....I might be the only person who thinks this but the horse who ran second 2 him is really good. Lopresti has a really good dirt router. His Saratoga comeback was huge, and right after he was on capital otb and mentioned that race at Churchill Im sure at that point he had no clue he was catching a BC Classic winner. I dont love Fort Larned, but the race came back fast and we know he likes Santa Anita.
Paynters run was odd. Looked like he was totally backing up then came on again. Personally I would try him in the dirt mile or skip the BC all together and re group. He came back from near death and puts up a 114, then comes across country and catches slop. He might need a break.
Im not sure what the big deal is with Princess not going to the BC. She has run in all the big races and is a much much better horse then I thought she was. I literally gave her no chance of beating Delta on that day. I was wrong, and its not like they are retiring her, like we see with so many horses. The connections 100% want her back next year.
Tiz Flirtatious is so so at best. I believe even Laughing is better.
Beholder is OK. Another one who is better then I thought, but still nothing special. Plus if Delta goes forward someone is getting cooked in the Distaff.

This may be your finest work.

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Also, if you really thought the results at Belmont were skewed, it should provide a great deal of opportunity BC weekend.

I learned that I want no part of Graydar, I learned Cross Traffic has done enough. I learned nothing about Laughing, I learned Tannery could be a monster, I learned Departing is the fraud and congrats to Al Stall for campaigning him as such, I learned Beholder is a killer. I learned why Bill Mott is a HoF'r!

Nuff said. :tro:

I learned that any weekend Little Mike runs is a good weekend to be on vacation. That's all that saved me from a pile of dead tickets- again.

What did you take away from the Gold Cup that convinces you one way or the other about Cross Traffic? I don't think I learned anything about him from that race.

Paul

I'm also unsure why everyone is suddenly in awe of Beholder. Did a lot of people not think she could win around two turns when totally unpressured on that surface?

I thought her Oaks was a pretty nice race too.

How many Pletcher trainee's return from the abyss?

What abyss? I know it's fun to tweak Pletcher Freddy, but take a second and watch the head on and see his hind legs splay out from under him. Race over.

Cross Traffic isn't good enough... Indy Points Arlington was a throw out... Beholder is that good and real quick out the gate putting pace issues for all else involved.... Mucho Macho Man may be ready to take down Game On Dude... Fort Larned may retire after BC... Gary Stevens is setting up for a big BC!!

Lot's of horses lose a few lengths and recover and if you think that is all that happens I respectfully disagree. That horse had plenty of time to rally. Let's hope he is back for the Donn.

Speed horses who blow the break usually have no chance... especially when they're forced to resort to rally wide tactics at 10 furlongs over a track like the one on Saturday.

I think you have to draw a line through that race, Freddy. It was certainly not a representative race.

Cross Traffic's true odds were about 5,000/1 after he blew the break. Brilliant miler types with forward running styles can't spot stretch runners like Flat Out, Ron The Greek, and Orb a huge head start and be expected to rally around them in the stretch.

Bro have a heart he never ran a step...Any day we should be getting news on the horses ailments

He circled around Orb and went by him like he was standing still.

Orb looked like hell in the paddock. While I am no horse whisperer, he seemed very subdued and not his rambunctious self. he looked like he ate a handful of beta blockers

Maggie was raving about how well Orb looked. Said "he looks better than I've ever seen him before"

She said Cross Traffic looks like he's tailing off physically. Cross Traffic was the horse she knocked the most in that race based on appearance.

The hell with Maggie. What we need are paddock observations from Freddy, especially after a few Sapphire and tonics.

:tro:

Yeah, I don't get it either. Was nice of Rosie to just hand her an unpressured lead through easy fractions.

I watched them saddle the colt he was ultra mellow and he was hardily himself..Remember he is a nervey colt its possible he is maturing and he looked fit and well just much much calmer then normal.. Maggie looked great as well

I will say I just looked at her year and it was better than I thought, 3 grade 1 wins and she ran the best race in the Oaks...still not better than POS just better than I had recalled.

what i learned was i never seem to have Little Mike and ron the greek when they Fire........

I totally agree, after that start there is nothing IMO you can say about Cross Traffic's race. Unfortunately, we still have no idea whether 1 1/4 is within his scope. But as Doug points out, the race was over for him after the stumble and I would not expect a pure speed horse to run any better than he did after such a compromising start.

She got away with such an easy unpressured lead that I too don't see why people are so in awe of that performance. Sure it was a nice race, but she could not have had more favorable circumstances. I am not sure what to take away from that race for Beholder.

We know she can go really fast though and be right there with Princess of Sylmar, thats something though I am not sure anyone else can say, but she is likely to be 7/2 and not worth the risk.

I see Royal Delta about 8/5, Authenticity about 6/1. Not sure of the rest really.

While people rightfully use breaking poorly as an excuse, they also tend to underestimate the fact that horses that break poorly are often on the way down form wise. To top it off, they are often overbet because of the poor break.

They definitely do get bet. A. P. Indy, was a good 3rd beaten 7 lengths after blowing the break in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He won the BC Classic as the post time favorite in his next start.

I never really have associated breaking poorly with off form though.

When you are bored sometime take a look through some Saturday PPs around the country. It obviously isn't always the case, but you'll see many horses begin to tail off following an unexpected poor break (meaning horses that usually break well). Of course it helps to watch and see if another horse contributed.

I agree with almost all of this. Except Beholder, shes OK, but Im not sold. I think Cross Traffic could be a total monster in the right races. Cigar Mile-Donn-Met Mile again.

Cross Traffic isn't good enough for what? Silly. I think Cross Traffic beats MMM any day up to 9f.

The immediate culprit for Cross Traffic's difficult start was attributed to the gate placement for the seldom used 10f trip. Given that it was his hind legs that went out from under him, there is every likelihood that the footing out against the rail was less than ideal.

Hard to see Cross Traffic tailing off with Pletcher eschewing his typical half mile works and giving him regular 5f drills the last month. The M.O. on Pletcher runners that are over the top is nursing them up to the race. Sure looked like Cross Traffic was being prepared for the stretchout with those solid five-eighths efforts.

Cross Traffic could not have been colder on the board on Saturday. He ran the way he was bet.

Was Quality Road doing 2f works then by the time the BC rolled around?

Orb was red-hot on the board.

Board action said Orb was 'supposed' to run.

never been too big into the "board", just as much as it may have lead me somewhere more times than not its been fools gold.

Well we shall see... Only if Pletcher enters Cross Traffic in the classic... He does have a free ride into that race, but I suspect he will not put him in.... I just don't think he is good enough to take this group wire to wire especially with Game On Dude after the same pace....

Unless it is a long layoff, first time starter, or sharp class dropper...I never get swayed even slightly by that stuff.

I would not put him in either. Cigar Mile-Donn-Carter-Met. Races like that are written for a horse like him.