David Junior
 

I hear so little of this horse, so let me make my prediction now, he will win the BC Classic.

Is he definitely going?

Yes...

http://www.skysports.com/skysports/a...235331,00.html

Thanks! :o

No. Tomorrow (Discreet Cat) and next weekend (Bernardini) will change a lot of the ambitious plans of these trainers. Not saying he won't be here for the Classic but I'd say it's much less than a definite at this point. Probably 50% or a little less.

I agree, although they will probably try David Junior anyway. I think that Bernardini really has Invasor's camp worried, and Invasor is not a lightweight...

You know, I would love to see a Discreet Cat and Bernardini race each other one day...

If Bernardini goes in the Classic, I doubt Discreet Cat will. I hope that they throw Discreet Cat in the sprint, or either wait and race him in the Clark or the Cigar...

I think Discreet Cat is the best horse in the country, if not the world. But I don't think he's fast enough for the Sprint. I'd love to see him in the Mile. I think he'd take that race easily.

You and me both...Discreet Cat is unbelievable. Yeah, the allowance he won was at seven furlongs, but the jock didn't even use him at all. With his running style, I think he could sit off the leaders in the sprint, and blow by them in the final sixteenth of the race. The horse is freaking fast. You may be very right though. I would really like to see him in the Cigar Mile and see him in the Met Mile next year. From there, it is on to an eventual Classic win after winning all of the major summer and early fall GIs, and then HOY...

I don't know how he would race on the grass...I'm still very new at the breeding aspect of this game...

Breeding means NOTHING. He's a class horse so running on another surface isn't an issue. People make too much of an issue with all of this breeding stupidity. I think u go by class level and the horse's best distance in deciding a spot for him. Not the surface.

The Mile is on the grass and I don't know if he could run on the grass or not. An individual's genes, breeding, and inheritance should play a role when deciding whether or not to bet a horse that is switching to a new surface for the first time. Take Lawyer Ron for example. He couldn't run very well on turf, and when he switched to dirt, he all of a sudden won six races in a row...Grade II and III stakes races at that. Lawyer Ron is a quality dirt horse, but not a quality turf horse. Discreet Cat could very well be the same way. In fact, with his running style, I really don't think that he would be suited to the turf. I could be wrong though. It wouldn't be the first time nor will it be the last...

It's my opinion that the better the horse, the fewer things they need to go their way in order to perform their best. The lesser the horse, the more they need. Lawyer Ron is a good horse. But he's not a great horse. Discreet Cat is potentially a great horse. He can run on any surface. Now whether or not u would want to bet on such a horse in that situation is different. I can understand not betting on him to do something that he has never done while facing the best in the world at the low price that he'll be. But he'd be my selection.

What is this " he can run on any surface " nonsense? Based on what? His breeding? You're being silly. The likelihood that Discreet Cat can transfer his dirt ability to the turf is very small.

I realize your unfounded BC predictions for him are an internet free roll. There is no indication whatsoever that he will run in any BC race and it is certainly not like Godolphin to deviate from their well mapped out plans to simply take a shot.

The reason Discreet Cat missed races earlier this summer is because he is basically a laimo. They never intended on running in the Dwyer, regardless of what was printed, and that was due to his sore going nature. In fact, it was just that situation that allowed him to pay 5-1 in his debut. It was widely know that he was very talented but just as widely known that he had serious soreness issues. This is specifically why he is lightly raced.

I wouldnt mind having a sore animal like Discrete Cat as a knock around horse.

It is also ridiculous to think pedigree has nothing to do with horses taking to, or disliking a particular surface.

No doubt that one of the things that separates decent horses from exceptional horses is their respective abilities to run through soreness. There have certainly been many top horses that have run through soreness. Banshee Breeze is a recent top horse that comes to mind. Everyone I know that understands these things ( not myself ) said she was as sore a working horse as they saw. But, on raceday, she put it all together.

No doubt on raceday Discreet Cat puts those issues behind him. I would say, however, that they have a lot to do with his light campaign. After seeing him today I hope we get to see a lot more of him. He may not have beaten much but that was a scary display. It's not as though Valid Notebook is a total bum. Four of his last five races have produced Beyer figures in the high 90s and Discreet Cat laughed at him like he was a 10 claimer. Anybody that doesn't think Discreet Cat is capable of monsterous performances is kidding themselves. The only question left, and it's a legitimate one, is how he will do when challenged by a relative equal. I say relative because it isn't entirely clear he has an equal.

I think the only equal rival for him would be Bernardini, and I wouldnt be quick to say Bernardini is even his equal.

The good ones run through their problems, they all get sore. You know how they go, sometimes the feel good, sometimes they dont. However, the real special ones will go on and show up every race.

DC trounced a pretty decent field today, that field wasnt as weak as many think. He didnt break all that sharp, he pulled a little, and he still smoked them. He is a very special horse. :eek:

I have a question for u. I've heard from u and others about Discreet Cat not being the soundest or physically correct horse in the world for a while now. Not saying that this is not the case but my question is how does anyone know how he would respond to a tougher schedule? I take Barbaro for instance. On another forum, I questioned before the Preakness whether his training/racing schedule was by design or by necessity? Matz always said that the horse needed more time between his races and that he performed best with a lot of spacing. But how did he know that? After his first race, he was given a break and they never actually tried racing him on a short turnaround. So there was no way they could know how he'd actually respond to a quick turnaround because he'd never had one. So my question then was did they give him the long breaks because he was coming out of his races showing that he needed it (physically spent or sore perhaps?) or were they giving him the breaks just because they THOUGHT it was what was best for him in the long run? If it was because he needed it, then that could have been a precursor to something bad happening when they ran back quick in the Preakness.

Is Discreet Cat's light campaign because of numerous physical setbacks and out of necessity to give him time to recover from his races? Do u think that the presence of Bernardini in the family has allowed them to take a much more conservative approach with him than they might have taken, or needed to take, if he was the only star in a one-star stable?

Hope this makes sense.

I'm not a trainer and don't know anything about the physical care of racehorses so I could only make fairly uneducated guesses but I would say it is highly likely that his physical issues have a great deal to do with his relatively light schedule. I guess when you have those concerns, especially with a supremely talented horse, you would tend to err on the side of caution.

I also agree that having Bernardini in the barn makes it easier to pass a race like the Classic. When you likely already have the favorite it certainly lessens the temptation to " take a shot " with another horse, so to speak.

One thing I will say is that in my experience even good horses tend not to perform up to their potential when they are placed, or sometimes rushed, into major races that they were originally planning on passing.

I agree with that. However, in this case, I don't feel like passing the BC was in the plan. I think they have been conservative in their public announcements but I really feel like in the back of their minds (maybe in the front), the BC has been a real possibility.

Is Discreet Cat's light campaign because of numerous physical setbacks and out of necessity to give him time to recover from his races?

Yes.

Do u think that the presence of Bernardini in the family has allowed them to take a much more conservative approach with him than they might have taken, or needed to take, if he was the only star in a one-star stable?

No, this horse has some really smart connections that don't push their horses and do right by their horses.

Not saying that this is not the case but my question is how does anyone know how he would respond to a tougher schedule?

We don't know, and we won't ever know if DC can handle a tough campaign. The connections won't push him and they don't have to. I expect DC is going to need a similar campaign to GZ. When he runs, I can see that his galloping style would make him prone to soundness issues. To me, he runs like an unsound horse. He really hits the ground hard with his front end, but he is as fast as they come, which enhances his problems.

But how did he know that? So my question then was did they give him the long breaks because he was coming out of his races showing that he needed it (physically spent or sore perhaps?) or were they giving him the breaks just because they THOUGHT it was what was best for him in the long run?

The reason that connections know how much a horse can take is mostly a guess, but there are indicators. For instance, I think that Barbaro lost weight after a race. Barbaro could also have come out of races puffy or it may have taken him longer to recover from a race. He also may have had some underlying soundness issues.

These are all of my opinions and I hope it helps. There are probably some others on this board that are a little more qualified and knowledgeable in this subject area than I am though...

I think it is very presumptuous of you to continue to make these claims. Godolphin is seemingly pretty clear about their plans and I don't think they have been planning some sort of sneak attack on the BC. You have to realize there are only two races for him BC day....the Sprint and the Classic. Turning him back to the Sprint doesn't feel like their kind of move, especially when they are seemingly heading to the World Cup, and they already have Bernardini primed for the Classic. No, I don't think it's impossible that they would run him in the Classic, but I also don't consider it likely, especially if Bernardini stays sound, and I certainly don't believe they have been lying about their intentions regarding Discreet Cat and that race.

As for your claims about the BC Mile....this honestly makes little to no sense. Horses basically go to the turf when dirt isn't really an option and a horse like Discreet Cat isn't making a brief excursion to the turf until he's proven he can't compete at the highest level on the dirt. Winning the BC Mile would NOT help Discreet Cat's breeding potential based on where he stands right now. He has to go out and prove himself on the dirt, in Grade 1 races, one way or the other before they would ever entertain thoughts of throwing him on the turf ( which they are realistically unlikely to ever do ). I hear all your " thinking outside the box " comments, and I understand where you're coming from, but I also don't think Godolphin would agree with you at all and nothing about their past suggests they do.

Why would you think the likelihood of Discreet Cat transferring his dirt ability to the turf would be small?

A horse as talented as this one can run on anything. Of course there is a chance that he might not like the turf but i think the chances of him being successful on it are more than just "small".

Horses going dirt to turf are more likely to be successful than the other way around.

Well, that's a statement of the obvious, as for the most part horses are only run on the turf when they have demonstrated a general dislike for the dirt or inability to run effectively on that surface. There is a lot more money, and many more opportunities, for dirt horses in North America.

What I should have said is that few horses transfer brilliance on one surface to brilliance on another.

And, from a breeding standpoint, switching him to the turf may detract from his desirability, especially before he has genuinely proven himself in Grade 1 dirt races.

It's not very presumptive on my part. It's 100% presumptive. But it sure would be fun to see. I don't share your opinion about the logic in chosing the Mile though. I think this is a unique situation that they are in, where they could literally have the three best 3yo's in the world and win three races on the world's most prominent race card with them. Of the three, Discreet Cat seems to me to be the one that fits the distance and has the versatility to accomplish the Mile. I don't think it's an issue of breeding value. I know every decision that I say I would make it easy to say since I don't have to actually make them. But if it were up to me, I'd go for it. The doors that could be opened with a win, or even a top showing, in the Mile would leave me plenty of options for next year and could make things a lot of fun. I believe that if there is anyone in the position to be as daring as I would be and has the opportunity, it's Godolphin.

I think it would be insane to run Discreet Cat in the Sprint. There are way too many fast horses that can have a superb day. It is much more of a flukey race than the Classic or Mile. Look back and see how many times the favorite has won the Sprint. Fast horses come out of nowhere and win this race. The sprint is a very tough one to call and requires a special effort on that day.

I think that Bernardini would be more suited to the Mile before Discreet Cat would, although, the Mile isn't even an option for either horse. You would go for it, and the horse may not run worth a crap, or he might break down. There is a lot at stake... If the sheiks did what you wanted them to do, they would be begging for a disaster.

Does EVERY thread turn into Discreet Cat around here!!!???!?!

No, just every other one...LOL.

He's not running in a race because you or anyone thinks it would be " fun ". Believe me, this is very serious business, and there is zero chance Discreet Cat is going to end up in the BC Mile....unless they decide, in the spirit of MY Discreet Cat thread ( which you guys ruined with your frivolous seriousness...talk about presumptuous ), to switch it to the dirt just for Godolphin.

But, hey, anything's possible, the Dead did eventually break up Scarlet/Fire. It just took a VERY long time.

from what i've seen about barbaro, when he ran his first race they really got to thinking he was a t.c. horse. his entire schedule was set up based on having a fit, but not tired horse for the trail. like matz said, a lot of people focus on the derby, he focused on the series. that so many try so hard to get the horse to ky, without considering the bigger picture. of course the winner than heads to md, but that's more of an 'afterthought'..hey, won the derby, now we gotta try to win the next two. he set up everything to make all three, knowing how grueling the three races would be. so, i'm not so sure barbaro dictated the time between starts--the overall plan did.

I understand that and to an extent, it makes sense. U shouldn't go to the Derby unless u plan on winning it and u know that winning it means u go to the Preakness so u need to plan ahead. But there is a very old saying in life..."practice makes perfect." In most areas of life, u get to be good at things by practicing them constantly. That way, u are prepared when it's time to actually perform. This is especially true in sports. So to me, it seems like while trying to ensure that they left room in the tank with Barbaro, they may have done him a disservice at the same time. Horses are creatures of habit and it seems like a mistake to me to get him settled into the habit of having x amount of time between races then all of a sudden changing up the pattern with him and sending him right back out.

You think that Bernardini is better suited to the Mile than DC?

While I don't like the Mile for DC I would have to say that turning back a multiple G1 winning dirt router to the Mile on BC day is insane. Since Bernardini is at least a somewhat "proven commodity" in dirt routes, the Classic is a better fit for him than DC.
I don't think that the "perfect" race exists in the Cup for DC, thus I think he'll be withheld unless the scene shifts alot in the next 2 weeks. Do they drop back and sprint with the likes of Henny or try grass for the first time against horses like their own proven miler, Librettist? Maybe they can get him a sex change and run him at 9f in the Distaff.
Clearly they are looking for "perfect" spots for this colt and none such would appear to be availbale in the Cup.

Yes, it is insane for either horse to point towards the Mile on BC day as I have said multiple times throughout this post. I even said that I wanted to see DC run in the Cigar Mile before the connections were talking about it and before the running of the Jerome yesterday. To run Bernardini in anything other than the Classic would also be insane at this point.

That is why I think that this argument is useless. Between the two horses, I just stated that I think that Bernardini would be better suited to the turf than DC. They said that the BC Classic and the Cigar Mile were options for DC, not the Mile or the Sprint. Bernardini is definitely going in the Classic, which is the only thing that makes sense. DC will most likely go in the Cigar Mile. The BC races may be a step too far too quick for the colt.

His connections were saying publicly that he was going to run in the Cigar Mile since the Monday after his allowance win and were probably pointing to it even before the allowance.

Oh, I didn't know that...

Not doubting you didn't come up with the idea on your own. Just thought I'd point it out.

I completely detest the 'training up to the event 4 months out' approach, but David Junior is a really good horse with a great dirt pedigree. I'll probably be factoring him into my selections and place him above all the others in the American roster behind Bernardini & Invasor.
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/bre...raceid=CLASSIC

And they say we Bernardini folks talk up our hero too much! Since this thread is about David Junior, let me say he is a loser in the BCC. If your name is not Vindication, the layoff is too long for my liking. It will just make things easier for the horses who are not 'fresh'! My husband's name is David Jr. and even he is going elsewhere.:D