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dprtulsa 05-19-2013 11:06 AM

Idea for Post Position
 
I think Orb was badly compromised by the #1 post.

How about letting the Derby winner have the choice of Post Position in the Preakness as a reward for winning the Derby? Why should it be random?

The triple crown races are like playoffs, a winner should get some advantage in the next round, since it can't be a "home court " or "home field", how about a post postion pick?

THe best horses should not have to rely on random luck in the Preakness/Belmont post position draws.

Then allow the Preakness winner to have post position choice in the Belmont with the Derby winner second choice. That also might encourage the owners to run even in non triple crown races.

Just my thoughts...but I do not see any downside to it

tywizard 05-19-2013 11:49 AM

He did not lose because of the 1 hole....Not at all.

He was in position and simply had no kick yesterday.

casp0555 05-19-2013 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tywizard (Post 928895)
He did not lose because of the 1 hole....Not at all.

He was in position and simply had no kick yesterday.

and the slow fractions played against Orb.......

dprtulsa 05-19-2013 12:26 PM

maybe
 
Maybe post had no effect, but we will never know, but I still think the Derby winner should get to pick the post the trainer wants as a reward for winning.

my miss storm cat 05-19-2013 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dprtulsa (Post 928892)
I think Orb was badly compromised by the #1 post.

How about letting the Derby winner have the choice of Post Position in the Preakness as a reward for winning the Derby? Why should it be random?

The triple crown races are like playoffs, a winner should get some advantage in the next round, since it can't be a "home court " or "home field", how about a post postion pick?

THe best horses should not have to rely on random luck in the Preakness/Belmont post position draws.

Then allow the Preakness winner to have post position choice in the Belmont with the Derby winner second choice. That also might encourage the owners to run even in non triple crown races.

Just my thoughts...but I do not see any downside to it

Maybe they could all get trophies for participating too!

Cannon Shell 05-19-2013 12:50 PM

Why not just let the Derby winner have a head start?
Why not give the Super Bowl winner the number 1 pick in the draft?

Dunbar 05-19-2013 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat (Post 928903)
Maybe they could all get trophies for participating too!

:tro:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell (Post 928910)
Why not just let the Derby winner have a head start?
Why not give the Super Bowl winner the number 1 pick in the draft?

:tro:


I did get a smile thinking about letting the Derby winner pick it's own Preakness post. I wonder what Orb would have done if left to his own devices 30 feet behind the starting gate. Which post would Orb have chosen, given a light tap on the rump?

--Dunbar

pointman 05-19-2013 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell (Post 928910)
Why not just let the Derby winner have a head start?
Why not give the Super Bowl winner the number 1 pick in the draft?

Why stop there, why not just let the Derby winner win? This way we will always have a triple crown on the line!

But then, why not just let them win the Belmont too?

DaTruth 05-19-2013 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman (Post 928915)
Why stop there, why not just let the Derby winner win? This way we will always have a triple crown on the line!

But then, why not just let them win the Belmont too?

Horses from the West Coast should only have to win the Derby and Preakness to be considered Triple Crown winners. Flying over the Rockies ought to count as the first leg of the Triple Crown for them.

Danzig 05-19-2013 06:16 PM

hell, just present the horses and let everyone vote. top vote getter wins. that way peta gets off racings back too. and every ticket would be a winner. yay, everyone wins!

:p

miraja2 05-19-2013 08:30 PM

I don't like the idea and wouldn't support changing anything. Its a horse race and I think it is best to just select the post positions as they do in every other race.

But, that being said, the reaction to the suggestion here seems a bit over the top. Let's say they did make the change suggested....who cares? It wouldn't affect much. How often does post position really play a big role in the Preakness? We aren't talking about a 9f race at GP, or the 20-horse field of the Derby, where post position is often determinative.

So, there's no real point in doing it, but there's no real harm either.

HaloWishingwell 05-19-2013 09:11 PM

People get so desperate for a Triple Crown winner they come up with the craziest things. Why try to water down the achievement or the challenge? Let them earn it the traditional way like everyone else did. Orb flat out lost. He ran a great and his best race in the Derby. But it was just one race and the Preakness was a totally different condition in many ways.

casp0555 05-20-2013 12:06 PM

There is an old sayin' "If it ain't broke, don't fix it". I am a newbie no doubt but post selection has been a part of this game and handicapping for a long time. Why should a process be modified to possibly increase the chances for a participent to gain an advantage.

It is supposed to be tough to win these things, regardless of the luck of the draw............... that's why they are called CHAMPIONS when they win.

MaTH716 05-20-2013 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2 (Post 929013)
I don't like the idea and wouldn't support changing anything. Its a horse race and I think it is best to just select the post positions as they do in every other race.

But, that being said, the reaction to the suggestion here seems a bit over the top. Let's say they did make the change suggested....who cares? It wouldn't affect much. How often does post position really play a big role in the Preakness? We aren't talking about a 9f race at GP, or the 20-horse field of the Derby, where post position is often determinative.So, there's no real point in doing it, but there's no real harm either.

:tro::tro:

Ogygian 05-20-2013 12:31 PM

The only change in post psoition draws I would support would be draw the Derby from highest points down...the horse that finishes with the most points leading up to the Derby has first draw, the 20th horse has last. IMO, it shouldnt be "luck of the draw" in the Derby...
Leave the Preakness and Belmont alone...post draw there isnt as significant...

jms62 05-20-2013 12:42 PM

There is quite a bit of chatter about post having little to do with the Preakness. Would a .018 winning pct from the 1 hole in the last 53 runnings (That is 1 out of 53) indicate that only horses that werent good enough have drawn that number? That is mathematically astounding.

pointman 05-20-2013 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2 (Post 929013)
I don't like the idea and wouldn't support changing anything. Its a horse race and I think it is best to just select the post positions as they do in every other race.

But, that being said, the reaction to the suggestion here seems a bit over the top. Let's say they did make the change suggested....who cares? It wouldn't affect much. How often does post position really play a big role in the Preakness? We aren't talking about a 9f race at GP, or the 20-horse field of the Derby, where post position is often determinative.

So, there's no real point in doing it, but there's no real harm either.

I disagree and think it is really logical why this would be a problem. Inevitably, whether you agree or not, there will be those who will claim when the next triple crown winner comes around that they had an advantage that the previous triple crown winners did not, that the accomplishment is watered down and should come with an asterisk.

It seems like every year when people realize that there will not be a triple crown winner the calls come for changes to the rules. Winning the triple crown is an accomplishment that only the best horses can attain, they are the horses that can win despite whatever may be thrown at them. It is what makes the accomplishment so difficult and special.

I wanted Orb to win the Preakness, but at the end of the day, for whatever reason, whether it was the dynamics of the race, the fact that certain horses IMO were not run in the manner that gave them the best chance to win, or whether he simply is not good enough, Orb does not deserve to be amongst that elite group since he could not overcome the adversity thrown at him on Saturday.

I am glad that Lukas won the Preakness, maybe it will be a wakeup call to all trainers that the most likely way someone can accomplish this is by racing their horses into experienced horses that can handle adversity instead of babying them and keeping them in the barn when they should be racing on the track.

Danzig 05-20-2013 01:53 PM

and i think most of the reaction here was posters building off previous posters comments, not the original idea itself.

but i don't agree that the derby winner should get first pick.

dprtulsa 05-20-2013 04:36 PM

exactly my point, why not have random sites for playoff games then in basketball if the lead up games mean nothing....why have seeds in the NCAA tournament? Just have a random draw, everyone is equal and past performance means nothing for the big dance.

Just a suggestion folks, this is the problem with racing...new thoughts are attacked as stupid or mocked......
I recall the dime superfecta being mocked as well, until tracks figured out people liked the idea

Dunbar 05-20-2013 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 929052)
There is quite a bit of chatter about post having little to do with the Preakness. Would a .018 winning pct from the 1 hole in the last 53 runnings (That is 1 out of 53) indicate that only horses that werent good enough have drawn that number? That is mathematically astounding.

hmm...53 years. Without looking this up, and I promise I haven't, I can be pretty sure that 54 years ago a horse won from the 1 hole. If true, it makes it 2 in 54 years, which is roughly only half as astounding as 1 in 53. :)

If there was a significant change in track configuration 53 years ago that warrants using 53 years as a cutoff, then that would justify using an odd number like 53.

--Dunbar

jms62 05-20-2013 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 929074)
hmm...53 years. Without looking this up, and I promise I haven't, I can be pretty sure that 54 years ago a horse won from the 1 hole. If true, it makes it 2 in 54 years, which is roughly only half as astounding as 1 in 53. :)

If there was a significant change in track configuration 53 years ago that warrants using 53 years as a cutoff, then that would justify using an odd number like 53.

--Dunbar

Well you got me. 2 for 54 completly changes things.

Dunbar 05-20-2013 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 929075)
Well you got me. 2 for 54 completly changes things.

I'm glad you agree. :) Otherwise I'd have to point out that there were 8 winners from the 1 hole in the past 84 years. I think we can safely say that 8 in 84 does not fall into the 'mathematically astounding' type of stats. Neither, for that matter, does 2 for 54.

--Dunbar

hi_im_god 05-20-2013 06:26 PM

tabasco cat had an open stall to the left of him at the start of the preakness.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_8ElpNT7l8

so if you really want to make a point you could say bally ache in 1960 was the last winner to start from the #1 hole.

miraja2 05-20-2013 08:24 PM

Let's just look at the last ten years. Obviously there is no way to know for sure, but how many of the following Preakness winners do people think would have failed to win the race had they drawn post #1 instead of wherever they actually ended up:

Funny Cide
Smarty Jones
Afleet Alex
Bernardini
Big Brown
Rachel Alexandra


My answer is....zero. They all would have won. Did being stuck down inside have a negative effect on Orb? Yeah. But that doesn't mean the #1 post is some kiss of death in the Preakness.

Cannon Shell 05-20-2013 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dprtulsa (Post 929071)
exactly my point, why not have random sites for playoff games then in basketball if the lead up games mean nothing....why have seeds in the NCAA tournament? Just have a random draw, everyone is equal and past performance means nothing for the big dance.

Just a suggestion folks, this is the problem with racing...new thoughts are attacked as stupid or mocked......
I recall the dime superfecta being mocked as well, until tracks figured out people liked the idea

The problem with many new idea's are they aren't necessarily good idea's, just new ones.
This is horse racing, not basketball. For most of its history (you know the glory days everyone seems to pine for) the better horses were given pretty significant handicaps as opposed to trying to give them a bigger advantage. The reward for winning the Derby is 1+ million dollars and a lifetime of glory. IMO that's enough reward. Not to mention that the post position should always be drawn randomly as everyone on the race has paid the same nomination and entry fee and should have an equal opportunity to draw whatever post they draw. Despite the idea of a Derby trail or even Triple Crown, the races themselves are individual events.

The Bart 05-20-2013 10:00 PM

:tro::tro::tro:
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 929082)
I'm glad you agree. :) Otherwise I'd have to point out that there were 8 winners from the 1 hole in the past 84 years. I think we can safely say that 8 in 84 does not fall into the 'mathematically astounding' type of stats. Neither, for that matter, does 2 for 54.

--Dunbar


Cannon Shell 05-20-2013 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2 (Post 929096)
Let's just look at the last ten years. Obviously there is no way to know for sure, but how many of the following Preakness winners do people think would have failed to win the race had they drawn post #1 instead of wherever they actually ended up:

Funny Cide
Smarty Jones
Afleet Alex
Bernardini
Big Brown
Rachel Alexandra


My answer is....zero. They all would have won. Did being stuck down inside have a negative effect on Orb? Yeah. But that doesn't mean the #1 post is some kiss of death in the Preakness.

If Orb had post 8 rather than the rail I'm pretty confident that he would have been 4th by 7 rather than 4th by 9.

What if the rail was golden? The post 1 would be desirable. Perhaps the Derby winner's trainer can instruct the track maintenance crew on how they want the track to play as a reward for winning the Derby?

miraja2 05-20-2013 11:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell (Post 929113)
If Orb had post 8 rather than the rail I'm pretty confident that he would have been 4th by 7 rather than 4th by 9.

Hard to know. If he was outside & wasn't hurried a bit & then shuffled back, I think second or third may have been at least possible. But yeah, Oxbow won the race because they let him go 1:13+ for 6f. Orb's post position had no effect on that fact.

Danzig 05-21-2013 06:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell (Post 929111)
The problem with many new idea's are they aren't necessarily good idea's, just new ones.
This is horse racing, not basketball. For most of its history (you know the glory days everyone seems to pine for) the better horses were given pretty significant handicaps as opposed to trying to give them a bigger advantage. The reward for winning the Derby is 1+ million dollars and a lifetime of glory. IMO that's enough reward. Not to mention that the post position should always be drawn randomly as everyone on the race has paid the same nomination and entry fee and should have an equal opportunity to draw whatever post they draw. Despite the idea of a Derby trail or even Triple Crown, the races themselves are individual events.

:tro:

jms62 05-21-2013 06:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2 (Post 929096)
Let's just look at the last ten years. Obviously there is no way to know for sure, but how many of the following Preakness winners do people think would have failed to win the race had they drawn post #1 instead of wherever they actually ended up:

Funny Cide
Smarty Jones
Afleet Alex
Bernardini
Big Brown
Rachel Alexandra


My answer is....zero. They all would have won. Did being stuck down inside have a negative effect on Orb? Yeah. But that doesn't mean the #1 post is some kiss of death in the Preakness.

And my answer is :zz:. I have far too much experience than to speak in absolutes when it comes to Horse racing and truly get a kick out those that do.

miraja2 05-21-2013 07:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 929125)
And my answer is :zz:. I have far too much experience than to speak in absolutes when it comes to Horse racing and truly get a kick out those that do.

I don't see anyone speaking in absolutes in this thread....with the possible exception of you and your "mathematically astounding" claim.

jms62 05-21-2013 07:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2 (Post 929127)
I don't see anyone speaking in absolutes in this thread....with the possible exception of you and your "mathematically astounding" claim.

You give a list of horses and state ZERO would have lost and then say no one is speaking in absolutes:zz: Really are you kidding me right now?

miraja2 05-21-2013 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 929128)
You give a list of horses and state ZERO would have lost and then say no one is speaking in absolutes:zz: Really are you kidding me right now?

Ummm....did you miss the part of that post where I said "obviously there is no way to know for sure?"
So, that's kind of the opposite of "speaking in absolutes." I just posed a question and gave my answer. Others might have a different answer, because as I made perfectly clear there is no way anyone can know for sure.

Dahoss 05-21-2013 08:18 AM

Orb had plenty of time and room to get off the rail had Rosario wanted to.

outofthebox 05-21-2013 08:27 AM

At least Orb won the simulated race against the past 13 Preakness winners. And get this, he was on the rail throughout! You can catch the race on nbcsports.com...Maybe someone can supply the link...

jms62 05-21-2013 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 929133)
Orb had plenty of time and room to get off the rail had Rosario wanted to.

I need to watch the race again but at 1 point I noticed that Orb is on the rail and everyone was quite a bit off it.

Cannon Shell 05-21-2013 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2 (Post 929118)
Hard to know. If he was outside & wasn't hurried a bit & then shuffled back, I think second or third may have been at least possible. But yeah, Oxbow won the race because they let him go 1:13+ for 6f. Orb's post position had no effect on that fact.

I believe he was pressed into action a little earlier than usual was because Rosario was worried about the pace which would have been the same regardless of where Orb started from. I think he was shuffled back because he didn't have a whole lot of horse under him as opposed to traffic. He was 4th because Departing and Goldencents fell apart late. He wasn't on the rail from 3 furlongs on and his rider never stopped riding him at any point and he wasn't gaining ground in the stretch.

clambeau 05-21-2013 08:09 PM

If this topic is to get people to vent their frustrations of Orb not winning fine, but otherwise this Post Position option thing is just silliness


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