GP P6 carryover
 

This is getting interesting again.

It is now at $1.3m+. There are 8 racing days left. If this holds we could be looking at a huge mandatory payout on $.10 increment bet. While I never bet this thing, it would be irresistible at that point.

You know if you had six races of nine horses each (just for some plug numbers), you could cover every combination for a little over $53k. Is this a good strategy? No (also, I don't have a spare $53k lying around). All I am illustrating is that I think deep pocket stabbers would be greatly encouraged by how much they cover for so little, so you could have a real frenzy.

It would be interesting at least. Here's hoping it happens.

I agree. Interesting - and I'd love to see it go high (wish it wasn't hit earlier this season yet - would have been HUGE.)

But you're correct - to the big boys where $53k lost gambling is just a bad weekend, why wouldn't they try? Unless there are too many of them and they know about how many their competition is numbered.

Given the format of having to own the only ticket one would have to be an idiot to play a 50 K ticket. This hasnt carried this far because no one has been able to tab 6 winners. I think the value here is a 200 buck ticket shooting for a 5K split. Looking at Wed card and it is an almost sure carry. A couple smallish fields with a couple of tough favorites.

I'm eager to see what the p6 pays on Wednesday, as it is easily the worst sequence of races that I've seen since playing the wager. A total pass.

Easy sequence or bad races?

A mixture of both. You mentioned earlier about the smallish fields early in the sequence and tough favorites. I agree.

The first race of the sequence is key to this thing being hit, imo. On the day the jackpot was scooped, the guy hit the all button in the first 3 races and was lucky enough to catch the 50-1 in leg 1. It's big to catch a price in that leg because that's the leg that everybody gets to see how the horses are being bet. (Example...on Saturday, Rosario, on the 7, won the first leg on a horse that was bet down to 3-1 from a 20-1 morning line. The horse DNF in his only attempt prior. I think that if the race was the 2nd one of the sequence and people were not given the chance to see how much the horse was being bet, that a portion of the people who included the horse would have omitted from the ticket altogether. Instead, 440k+ tickets were still alive after first leg and that number quickly became 21k once the 25-1 romped in the second leg)

I personally love throwing a $200-$300 ticket at this thing twice a week when I feel the favorites are vulnerable.

Chopping Twilight Eclipse off the ticket at the last moment STILL stings when I think about it. He scared the life out of me once I saw him in the post parade and he certainly exploded in the stretch. Was hoping he ran off a little TOO much in the post parade as JJ was trying to stranglehold him, but I guess he was just THAT fit.

It will obviously be a VERY advantageous betting situation on closing day if a seven-figure carryover is forced out on a dime increment bet.

I'm sure they're going to put the six biggest fields they can in the sequence.

Hopefully there is at least one very solid stand-out big favorite in there.

I'd rather try and take a shot and hit the thing five or six different times for a dime, than spread way out in each race with a very expensive ticket and make merely a good profit that way if I can hit it doing that.

Funny Mike that you drew this conclusion.. I glanced at it Sunday trying to decide what to do for tomorrow and was equally unmotivated by the sequence.. I ended up doing it anyway after finishing the Aqueduct P4 last night, but it's not a fun set of races.

Why even bother with it until closing day?

You either need to play an extremely large ticket and get extremely fortunate, or you are making a disadvantageous long-term bet.

It's sucker bait until closing day.

That's the point of my post--on closing day the "format" suddenly changes (not that I was advocating a $53k bet anyway).

We covered this ground during the last 7 figure run-up.. People are playing small-moderate tix for the daily payoff and are having fun with it. I stopped trying to argue against the logic of it.. I hit one myself actually.

I must be a sucker then. Would't be the first time and certainly isn't my last time. I personally find the wager to be a fun alternative to playing vertically race after race.

All I know is that I could throw up a $300 ticket on all remaining racing days (not that i would) and $1000 on mandatory payout day, have them all burn up in flames, and STILL walk away profitable from that specific wager. I was fortunate enough to hit the wager 4 times (twice alone on cheaper tickets, twice in a 'syndicate' :rolleyes:).

Caveman-esque? Surely. You'll never hear me say otherwise. Lots of fun to track while on the clock though, perhaps that's why I was suckered in.

Not hit today--the countdown is at 7.

it's going to be an effectively zero takeout bet the last day assuming no one hits before. i'm a fan for that reason alone.

As I stated last time around, I wholeheartedly disagree.

Here's the rationale: would you rather play at a poker table with no rake, but with 9 players of equal high ability? Or at a table with 25% taken out of every pot but 3-4 of the players overbetting losing hands every hand?

Once the carryover reaches the 7 figure mark, the bet has been paying well over the parlay. Yesterday, parlay+50% despite short fields and tough favorites. Today, 3X the parlay. Sunday, 2X the parlay.

What type of multi-win wager, even over just a 3-race sequence, doesn't pay well over the parlay?

Who, of sane mind, would ever make a parlay on six-straight races on a card?

Phil, of course one 52% bite is better than six separate bites of 16%.

However, neither option is even remotely attractive...EVER.

I get your point, there is a lot of people sending in foolish and excessive coverage ... that still is merely lipstick on a pig.

How do the 50-cent pick 5's perform versus the parlay? Obviously MUCH, MUCH, MUCH better ... and it's over one-less race.

considering that takeout on the win bet is applied 6x to a parlay, i think you might be setting a low bar for determining what constitutes a good return.

i'm not against this bet in any manner. it doesn't appear to have cannibalized handle elsewhere. if people want to have fun with it, i'm all for that.

but whatever favorable return you think you see now, how much greater is it going to be when instead of holding out 40%, you're getting all that held back money added in?

for me, anticipating the last day is a lot more fun than tossing money at it now.

Very low standards.

And those are brutally difficult sequence of races they use.

The Pick 5's at Santa Anita, for instance, are the opening five races and offer a lot of smaller fields and sometimes non-competitive races.

Look at the last completed card at SA for instance, March 24th.

Race #1: 4 horse field, winner is 6/5
Race #2: 8 horse field, winner is 5/1
Race #3: 4 horse field, winner is 9/5
Race #4: 6 horse field, winner is 9/5
Race #5: 10 horse field, winner is 11/1

The pick 5 pays $6,331.80 for $2 ... or $1,582.95 for fifty cents.

Instead of five very shabby races... Gulfstream gives you mostly tough races with larger fields and invites people to stupidly spread.

Actually it isn't that low of a bar. I did the math here:
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...1&postcount=44

Comparison to parlay is simply a way to normalize the results and compare different horizontal wagers against the same bar. Obviously nobody actually does a 6 race parlay these days, no need to (although as recently as 2007 you actually could if you wanted to with a punch card at NYRA)

The average pick 3 only pays about 1.3X the parlay. In the data set I looked at, at Aqueduct (which obviously has robust pick 4 pools), the average pick 4 was 1.91X the parlay.

As for your question about SA Pick 5's, the one in you stated paid 2.2X the parlay ($716.86/.50)- a pretty normal amount for that wager. Over the past 15 racing days the average has been 2.3X the parlay, with a low of 1.06X (March 8th) and a high of 3.68X (March 22nd). Oddly enough, the second lowest payoff was actually the day they had the carryover- March 1st, where the payoff was only 1.4X the parlay.

My point is this- despite the seemingly criminal takeout for the average player, it actually stacks up favorably well to other horizontal wagers. Not to mention with the low entry point it gives said average player an actual chance of feeling the sweet success of a pick 6. So many people just automatically assume it's terrible by just looking at the takeout and bash away, which frustrates a math guy like me.

Phil, I've seen that bet pay less than the parlay when a couple of improbable longshots win.

There was nothing even remotely special about that Santa Anita p5 I posted. The point was that it transformed a sequence of mostly terrible non-competitive betting races with small fields and hopeless toss-outs into an advantageous situation.

The Gulfstream p6 is generally made up of several attractive betting races with large fields, often wide-open races.

The more sensible thing to do is to target the race or two in the sequence where you most have an edge.

I think I understand a little of both sides of the argument and like philcski believe most of the money wagered has almost no realistic chance of cashing.

Successfully parlaying 6 races is extremely rare with large fields and so many un-raced horses. Too many variables in the sequence for a player to be successful without spending much less then $300.00 in my opinion.

Can someone hit it for a dime –yes but you have better odds hitting the lottery.

Unless your handicapping shows that you are successful 90% of the time of including the winner using three horses or more in each race then you are playing a losing game imo.

Players that are investing $50 to $200.00 per ticket are fooling themselves and have almost no chance of hitting 6 of 6 let alone the big prize.

As long as the vast majorities play this wager for fun and small dollars I think it’s possible to make money on this wager.

The argument Doug puts forth is there are much better ways to win at the races.

Of course that happens, it happens in multi race wagers all the time. If pool size < parlay it is guaranteed to happen. Hell Even the lowest day relative to parlay at SA was "normal" results (2 2-1, 2 4-1, 1 11-1).

The p5 at SA is obviously a good wager with the low takeout, I'm not suggesting otherwise. But we completely disagree what constitutes worthwhile sequences for multi race wagers. I'm looking for difficult sequences where I can possibly hit a separator horse or two. Singling the same horse as everyone else in a mundane sequence doesn't help me.

If you play the pick 6... And have scrutinized every race, who's to say you can't play the races individually as well?

And it survives another day.

So we only have to dodge 4 more days. Obviously a goodly amount of money should go in tomorrow, Florida Derby day. And with many tracks not running Easter Sunday, it should take a lot of money then, too.

A carryover into the final day (if it happens) should be over $2 million--unless people hold back the last couple of days to try to crush it closing day, which could increase the odds of a single ticket winner.

Some effed up psychology on this bet....

Only 2 days left to dodge. C/O now near $1.8m.

I'm not sure what rhyme or reason they are using to get here but people are throwing around the $8 million number for total pool on Friday if it gets there.

Update:

I think the Rainbow 6 has gotten more popular since it was introduced but I went back and looked in 2011 they had a $1.4m carryover to the final day and the total pool was right around $3.6m - still not sure it can get as high as numbers I've seen this year... and thats with groups like Twinspires who put $100,000 in the players pool and lost 94% of it... Don't see that happening again.

Just looked in my wallet from this weekend in Vegas and found a 5 of 6 ticket from the Venetian for Saturday. Couldn't find any payoffs for the consolation, does this bet not pay for 5 out of 6? I was hoping to cash on my next trip.

I don't think they pay 5 of 6 because with the ten cent increment, im pretty sure it's been hit with multiple tickets every day other than when the jackpot was scooped.

Probably right, thanks.

5/6 only pays when there's 1 or 0 6/6 tickets. The only exception may be closing day.

I was afraid of that, I just looked up the rules and it says just that, bummer. Seems like a lot of players missed leg 2, including me.

has anyone looked at friday's card yet? it's ugly.

6 full fields with 5 of them having ae's. 4 maiden races.

i don't see a race in there where you could single a horse with confidence. pletcher's horse in the first leg maybe?

i was looking forward to betting this but as i look at the actual fields i think i'll probably limit myself to a smaller ticket versus betting at it seriously. that's a really tough sequence.

Super tough sequence.

I'm actually against the Pletcher off the long layoff, although I'd be an idiot to leave him off the ticket.

Every race is a headscratcher in and of itself.

At first glance, it looked impossible.

IMO it's a manageable sequence. The toughest of the four maiden races is the first leg, so you can get a look at the board. Fogozano ran well against a tough field in his debut, so unless Pletcher's horse in the 11th is a rocketship, he could be a realistic single. I also think Nora's Song is clearly the horse to beat in the 13th and the 9th has a small group of logicals. I actually think the toughest race is the $6,250 claimer in the 10th. Plenty of horses with back races that fit and a murky pace scenario.

I looked it over for an hour last night. If it wasn't a 10 cent minimum with a monster pot, I wouldn't even think of tackling it. But, ill throw $40 at it and take my chances. Right now, Third Martini in the 9th and Nora's Song in the 13th are my possible singles.

I'm interested in seeing what the Darley filly is on the board, being a half to Royal Delta she's going to take some $.

The 8th and 10th aside, which are very difficult races, the 11th seems wide open to me.

I agree Fogozano ran well, but not single worthy for me at least, especially with a Pletcher firster in there. They paid 260k for Artic Bear last April, which is a lot for an offspring of Political Force. If you can look past the debut, his work pattern looks alright and he could improve enough to win. Lochte was a 475k yearling so it wouldn't totally shock me to see him come out running although his trainers runners usually need one. Herd Mentality appears to be working well in the morning for a trainer who can get a horse to win first out. Best Man did everything but win first out, for a trainer who is good going turf to dirt and the dam was 2nd in the Gallant Bloom on dirt and finally even Maximum Impact isn't impossible, especially because Dennis Manning loves to put a horse over who has been working in Ocala.

after all that, you're probably right and Fogozano will win and pay $5 but that race is giving me fits.

If JV hangs around to ride Fogozano...i would probably single him...instead of going to keenland...tough rack of races, but when playing for a dime...thats alot of fun....

As of right now, i have a 150.00 ticket.....using just 3-11 in race 9...just a reach.

Interesting to see Castellano sticking around for closing day and not at KEE on FRI.