Is This Really the Best We Have?
 

Ok, let's first establish that Watchmaker is an idiot. This we already know. So the order of his selections is not the point of this post. He's basically got all of the correct nominations for the top 10. U can put them in whatever order u want. The point here is how depressingly weak this group is when this is your top 10. Horrible. We all can agree that Lava Man and Invasor are the top two I'm sure. After that:

1 - Invasor
2 - Lava Man

3 - Sun King-For all of his hard work, he's still only won ONE stakes this year, and it was a gr II sprint.

4 - Surf Cat-At least he has won three gr II races this year but only ONE was a route.

5 - Brass Hat-Has a gr I and a gr II but no wins since February.

6 - Silver Train-Has a gr I and a gr II and the Met Mile is considered a sprint by many.

7 - Premium Tap-Just won the first graded stakes of his career. One gr I win.

8 - Park Avenue Ball-One graded stakes win this year and that was a gr III.

9 - Good Reward-No graded stakes wins this year at all. No stakes wins PERIOD this year.

10 - Flower Alley-One graded stakes win this year and that was a gr III.

That means that from the #3-10 horses, in route races, which is what this division is about, we have these totals:

3 gr I (Donn, Met Mile, Woodward)
2 gr II (New Orleans Hcp, Mervyn LeRoy)
2 gr III (Salvatore Mile, Iselin Hcp)

Is this pathetic or what?

The top 2- Invasor and Lava Man are real nice horses, both treats to watch and saving what could have been a horrible Classic.

Sun King is a hard tryer and a nice horse we can count on seeing for the rest of this year. No world beater by any means but still a joy to have around.

Surf Cat has immense talent but shouldnt be mentioned anymore, hes done for the year. His wins were in short fields. Hes yet to do anything that would make him belong with the top 3.

Brass Hat got injured, thats part of the game.

Silver Train is a very nice sprinter who I cant wait to see next weekend.

KG...while I respect your opinion, Surf Cat has only raced 3 times this year due to injury. 2 sprints and 1 route (1 1/16). He is one incredibly versitale horse. He has stakes wins from 6.5 furlongs to 1 1/8. While I would love to see his connections race him outside of Cali, to see what he is really made of, I understand leaving him there and cleaning up where he is entered.

NTRE division leaders

Bernardini (145)
Invasor (ARG) (134)
Lava Man (126)
Sun King (78)
David Junior (68)
Dylan Thomas (IRE) (47)
Shirocco (Ger) (45)
Jazil (39)
Discreet Cat (26)
Giacomo (21)
UPDATED Sep 18, 2006

Not really sure what your point is here. There have been 10 G1s so far this year for older males at a mile or longer and six of them were won by the top two. Three of the other four were won by horses on the list. Would the list be significantly better if Seek Gold was on it instead of Flower Alley? They pretty much both suck. Once you get beyond the top 7 on that list you could pretty much throw whatever garbage you want in the last three spots.

That is a better list.

What does your first comment, " Ok, let's first establish that Watchmaker is an idiot. This we already know " have to do with the rest of your post? Is it important for you to criticize Watch in order to feel better about your complete lack of accomplishment in horse racing?

But, what's even funnier, is that while apparently conceding that Watch is an " idiot " ( which I happen to not agree with ), you use his top ten list to solidify your apparent point that the top older horses in the US are weak.

So, if Watchmaker is an idiot, then I guess you are as well.

But, " this we already know ".

How about this for a list. WHy dont we focus on the NOW and not the what ifs:

1) Lava Man and Invasor
3) Sun King

Mike has to explain also why Teammate is not in his top 10 for 3 year old fillies, even though she's finished good 2nd twice to Pine Island in the Alabama and Gazelle.

Ah, the Ap Indy fascination continues.

Look,
Its pretty obvious that the older horse division is pretty much gonna continute to fall far below the divisions of yesteryear.
Two glaring reasons why.
1) The Triple Crown has become a horse destroyer like nothing else in the game. Many people feel that some of the retired horses were retired for money only, but thats not the case. The injuries that these horses sustain are real injuries, and many are never the same after who don't succumb to injury. We don't get to see our best early three year olds race at 4.
2) The disproportionate money situation between breeding and racing.
You'd have to be a sheikh or eccentric to race on with a top 3 year old at age 4. The breeding deals are in the multimillions and pures money just isn't there to justify racing them on. The insurance premiums alone would be more than what a horse could earn at age 4.
Its real easy for joe six pack the fan to rant on about how these owners are all scum and should race the horse for the fan's enjoyment. Thats because Joe Six Pack has no vested interest in the horse financially. If Joe Six Pack was staring 10 million bucks in face he'd be on it like a dog on a meat truck.

Thats just how its gonna be. Unless we have a really nice gelding, a horse owned by a billionaire with a love of the game that exceeds his common sense, or a triple crown that doesn't require a horse to run 3 races totalling 31 1/2 furlongs at three different tracks in 5 weeks time, you can always count on the older horse divsion to have late developers who missed the crown, or foreign imports dominating it.
Of the horses on that list, only Sun King competed in more than one triple crown event.

Good Reward clunks up for second (essential the only horse in the beaten field who stayed on that day) in only one dirt race, stinks in his others, and he is ranked above Perfect Drift? Watchmaker hasn't been paying attention. Heck, I would rank Seek Gold ahead of Good Reward, since he actually won a G1 race, even if only at 9f.

Incidentally, Brass Hat was retired after his injury in the Stephen Foster; that makes 2 wins, a second in Dubai, and an injury race for 4 starts on the year. That is actually a pretty good record compared to some of these others.

Sun King at least has been knocking heads in better races and not losing by much - that used to be the way you found out who the good horses were, until winning less competitive races to pad your stallion page became the rage.

Ann I don't think they choose the less competitive races to pad the records only. I think that when the majority of geniuses who vote for year end honors decided that one day(Breeders Cup Day) was much more important than a whole year, that owners and trainers decided not to bang heads during the year because there wasn't any point in it. If I were an owner or trainer I would do the same. They are only playing by the new "rules" that have evolved.

Thanks for displaying a voice of reason on this topic. We're LUCKY to have had two horses in Lava Man and Invasor that have been dominant in the older horse division. There isn't a need to spread the wealth in top 10 list because, after the first 2, it's all scraps anyway. LM and Invasor are great for the sport, have interesting stories behind their success, and are fun to watch. Who could ask for anything more?

I agree. Having 2 horses like Invasor and Lava Man, not to mention one of the most potentially talented 3 year olds in a very long time is good enough.
Sun King has proved to be a worthy competitor and one of these days will get a huge win. Surf Cat was pretty awesome but I doubt will ever see him in a race that matters. If you like seeing him beat 3 horses than hes your guy. I'd rather root for horses like Lava Man.

Certianly not SC's and Headley's fault they don't show up to run against him..

Mike Watchmaker usually makes sense, but he lapses occasionally. TEAMMATE should be on the Top Ten Three-Year-Old Fillies list! I thought he picked her to win big races and she lost, so maybe he is letting his annoyance influence his list. :D

:D good one...

One may agree or disagree with some of Watchmakers lists but what is he going to do? He has to come up with a top 10 list using horses IN TRAINING or who have raced THIS YEAR. He can't use Skip Away or Cigar. He has two superior animals and then some moderate types and he's ranked them.

As u said, I am an idiot. I know this already and anyone that reads anything that I type knows this too. However, I don't get paid by a national publication to look like a professional and STILL be an idiot. I just do it on forums like these where my audience is limited. The point in putting that in first in the post was so that the thread didn't automatically turn into a "Watchmaker is an idiot" thread which it would have. The point was in saying that while we know that he is, in this instance, he actually got it right. Maybe the order would be changed by some but the horses are the right horses. The point was to illustrate just how weak this year's division is.

My point is that your supposed point was irrelevent to the rest of your post and merely a reflection on you.

Are you as brave in criticizing people to their faces as you are on the internet?

This post was devastating to the premise of the thread.

Don't get me wrong here. I actually think that Surf Cat is better than any horse on the list. I think he's tons better than Invasor and I'd take him over Lava Man also. I agree that he's incredibly versatile and other than maybe Discreet Cat and Bernardini, I think he's the best horse in the country. But injury or not, he's still only raced a few times this year. If u were going to make a list of top 10 horses just 4 and up, any distance or surface, I'd leave him on there. But nine times out of 10, the older male division is considered to be for route races. That's why they have a separate division for sprinters. I think Surf Cat deserves a high ranking in the sprint division but with only that one route, and it being in a small grade two field, I don't think he merits that ranking in this division.

If I were face to face with Watchmaker, damn right I'd tell him that he's an idiot. And he'd tell me I'm an idiot. And we'd laugh about it. It's really nothing to get upset over.

This means nothing to u I'm sure but back in 1989 when Lukas had Houston and Open Mind, I ran into him in the paddock area at Santa Anita. He sat and talked with my friend and I for a few minutes. He told us that Houston would be coming west to run in the Santa Anita Derby and then they would point to the Kentucky Derby. I told Wayne that they were looking at the Derby with the wrong horse. I told him to his face that I thought Open Mind was the better horse and that he was making a mistake. Was that stupid of me to question a hall of fame trainer to his face about his own horses? Maybe it was, especially considering that I was 18 years old and had been following the sport all of 3 1/2 years. Did it stop me? Nope. This game is all about opinions. We all have them and we back them with our predictions and because we back them with our wagers, it gives each of us the right to have an opinion. I think Watchmaker is an idiot. U think I am one. Doesn't bother me one bit. I'll be the first to tell u that I'm an idiot for even playing this sport, as Jeff Mullins has said. At least I admit that I am one though. Would Watchmaker?

The original question was about "the best we have". I'd put Second of June above several that were listed. IMO he's much better right now than FA, Good Reward, Park Ave Ball.

--Dunbar

There are, however, numerous grade two and three races. Would the list be any better with Seek Gold? Absolutely not. That was the point. U could basically pick any horses after the top two and put them on the list. Why is Good Reward on there and he hasn't even won a stakes race? Why him and not Second of June? Why no Perfect Drift or Magnum? None of them would make the list any better either though. I understand u like Sun King and u know I love Surf Cat but neither of them belong on this list. Both of them belong on the top 10 sprinter list but not this one. U say that u can throw whatever garbage u want into the last three spots. I say u could throw it into the last eight spots.

I'm just saying that when u consider it was just two years ago when we had Ghostzapper, Roses in May, Perfect Drift, Pleasantly Perfect, Medaglia d'Oro, Peace Rules, Saint Liam, and Southern Image.......and just last year when we had Lava Man, Rock Hard Ten, Saint Liam, Borrego, Perfect Drift, Commentator, even Ghostzapper for one race........u see that this year the depth of talent is severly lacking. It's not so much to say that the horses on the list are BAD horses but I think the only reason that some of them are even able to make it is because the upper level talents of the game are taken away earlier and earlier and we are being left with less and less every year.

I really don't see the point of this thread to be honest with you.
I think its pretty obvious that yeah, this is the best we have. Watchmaker can't invent make believe horses to put on a list. He has to work with whats out there.
And anyone who hasn't realized by now that with the gruel of the tri crown, combined with the financial reasons to retire has coupled to form a weaker older divsion each year, well I can't help you.
This is how it is. Nothing beyond a radical shift in purse money or breeding fees is gonna change this.
End of story.

I hear ya but at the same time we may be rewarded with one of the better 3yo crops in a long time so it all evens out. Bernardini and Henny Hughes could easily take the Classic and Sprint, Discreet Cat could be better than both of them, and we had Barbaro and Showing Up in the same crop. The 4yo and 5yo crops were the ones depleted by MRLS so that may be as much of a factor for the older horse division being weak as cash being king.

U are missing the point then. Maybe that's my fault. I admitted as much that Watchmaker got this list right, for the most part. There just aren't any horses that are really much more deserving than the ones that are on there. And yes, I understand that this is the best we have. The point here is that the upper levels of the sport have slipped so bad that this is what we are left with. There are reasons why this has happened, a couple which u pointed out. What I'm saying is that there has to be something that can be done to change this tide. There has to be something that can be done to get us back to the days when there will be 10 actual GOOD horses on the list instead of two good ones and eight other fill-ins. Is it so bad to want more from the game? I mean, u don't even have to win a single race (Good Reward) to be a top 10 horse nowdays? A single grade three win (Park Avenue Ball and Flower Alley) can make u top 10 nowdays? No route wins at all (Sun King) can make u top 10 nowdays? A horse that is the reigning BC SPRINT champion and hasn't even run a route race this year (Silver Train), unless u count the Met Mile as a route, is top 10?

The 3yo crop absolutely stands out as far as depth of talent right now. But out of the five u just mentioned, how many of them will be around next year? Barbaro is already gone. I wouldn't be surprised to see Henny gone if he wins the Sprint and either Discreet Cat or Bernardini gone also, maybe both. I think Showing Up will be around next year and maybe one other.

Like I said, if you have some really great horses who are :owned by Sheiks, owned by billionaires, or owned by millionaires whose thrill of racing outweihs their common sense and judgement, then you are all set.
No rational guy with any brains is gonna turn down a breeding offer in the 10's of millions to race for a best case scenario in which he weighs losing a lot of money vs losing only a little money.

I guess this is my problem with this. Remember back when baseball went on strike and they used replacement players? Well, even though they were giving us a lesser product, ticket prices remained the same. There was still a home run leader, an rbi leader.....everything stayed the same except the product was of lesser talent. Kind of the same thing with racing. There will still be a Derby winner, a Met Mile winner, a BC Classic winner every year. But it seems like more and more, the quality of the overall product is decreasing. And because so many people just sit and say "we should be lucky that we have a Bernardini this year" and are content with the continuous garbage that they are feeding us, there is no incentive for them to ever change anything. It won't be until we start demanding a better product that things will start to change. Why does everyone seem so content with the way things are and just resigned to accept that this is all we are going to get?

Until the breeders start breeding for quality instead of "cheap speed", we won't see the quality improve. The breeders won't do that because that isn't what sells. Just my two cents.

If the point of the thread was to point out the lack of depth in the older horse division, I get it. I don't see how that lack of depth makes Watchmaker an idiot. There's no reason to involve him in the discussion. I often disagree with his choices and their order on the lists but hey, it's one man's opinion.

As for Sun King, he's coming off a close second and a decent third (against the bias) in G1 route races.

BTW, I don't know Mike W and he doesn't know me, so I have no dog in this fight.

Run to who....Bobby? Do you mean Bobby Brady? Bobby Brown? Bobby who?

You may be the most ridiculous wanabee in the history of the internet. You add less to a room than a fart. Between your silly abbreviations and unrecognizable first name references, as though you are some sort of industry insider, you have created perhaps the most laughable persona in internet history.

You were banned from the horseracingtalk message board.....chew on that one for a while.

so if a horse runs in sprints, he's somehow a lesser horse? that's the kind of thinking (that dirt and classic is the ONLY thing in racing) that has kept some outstanding turf horses out of the market here, and has given the euros the ability to get ahead in that division, since they come and buy our best turf prospects at auction and take them home.

we have all kinds of niches in racing. doesn't mean a horse is somehow lesser if he's a speed demon. he's not loaded with stamina, doesn't mean he's not loaded with talent.

I don't think that is his point. Watchmaker has a separate list for sprinters and for turf horses. This list is more intended for older males in the dirt routing division.

The H E L L with watchmaker he used to bad mouth lost in the fog the guy is a D A M N jinx hope he feels real good about all the bad things he said about that gutsy horse RIP

Thank u. Anyone that knows me knows that I am one that says the exact thing that Danzig said. I don't think a horse has to be a dirt router to be the best horse. In fact, it's a well known fact that I'm partial to sprinters and milers and grass horses than I am to dirt routers.