Why Romney was blindsided by his loss, and why he lost
 

Two good and thoughtful articles about how Romney managed to be, truly, blindsided by the electoral landslide that buried him and everyone but the conservative bubble saw coming. Just as an aside: about 37% of the country classifies itself as "conservative", about 27% classifies itself as "liberal"

First article about the technical failures of the Romney campaign, their GOTV, their polling, etc.

Why Romney Never Saw It Coming
He was the numbers guy. But in the end his numbers were all wrong.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a...ors_picks=true

Inside the Romney campaign massive IT failure on election day:
http://arstechnica.com/information-t...n-it-meltdown/


Second article about how, it's not that conservative policy has failed, but it's what the current conservative movement has embraced - denial of truth, ignoring facts in favor of desired opinion.

"Fantasyland - Denial has poisoned the GOP and threatens the rest of the country too" http://nymag.com/news/frank-rich/gop-denial-2012-11/

Another reason or 2..:)

There was a pretty good piece on Breitbart's site, of all places (yes, I really do go to right wing sites, too), about how GOP ads are made- that there's a limited list of approved people to do it, and if a GOP candidate tries to go off the approved vendors list, the RNC won't give them any money. It's turned into a real gravy train for the approved guys, who are turning out inferior ads and overcharging.

I'll be curious to see if there's an overhaul of the list. I know at my old job we had approved vendors for purchasing, who frequently cost more than other places, but we were given no choice in the matter- we had to spend more for the approved places. Huge waste of limited budget money, I thought.

they need to overhaul a lot more things than their advertising. they are becoming increasingly marginalized, and it's no one's fault but theirs.

Found the article. Here's the link:

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...dge-squandered

And an interesting article on how the whole anti-abortion aspect of the evangelical movement is a fairly recent development:

http://religion.blogs.cnn.com/2012/1...re-pro-choice/

I think the GOP will have to make a break with the evangelical movement if they hope to move back to relevancy.

that one is bizarre to me. i'm amazed at how many people think there were never abortions until roe v wade. but then i'm also amazed that a lot of people think the earth is only 6-9k years old, and that evolution is a fairy tale.
i have to wonder at what is taught in schools. i haven't discussed eohippus with one person down here yet who said 'yeah, i've heard of that'. not one.
i even took a picture of the back of the front leg of a skeleton of a horse, so i could show what a splint bone is.
yes, i'm a nerd.


as for the thread title, i really think that neocons were betting on low turnout, when the opposite was true in many areas. i know down here the talk has been about how many turned out compared to past elections.

Don't you, yes you.... the viewer, wish Yakity Danny would join Riot and Genuine Crazy Lady and hold a long jump competition off the shortest possible pier?


I would like to know....really,really.

There was also talk about how the Romney camp was so completely in the FOX News bubble that they just weren't aware of what the polls were really saying. There was speculation that that was one of the reasons Romney floundered so much in the second and third debates, especially with the whole "act of terror" thing. It had been a huge talking point on FOX News for weeks, so he figured he had a home run with it. Likewise, FOX News said the polls were under representing, therefore, they must be under representing.

yeah, it's bizarre that they seemed to believe what the wanted, rather than actually pay attention to what was actually out there.
sounds like a lot of fox viewers!

read the article, amazing how the movement changes it stance, within 15 years time-and that what the bible said wasn't what the bible said....or was it??

kinda like when the current pope declared that limbo, after all these centuries, didn't exist after all.

The experts can give many esoteric reasons why Romney lost, but the real reason is so simple. "Free Stuff"

Gov Romney lost the popular vote by less than 3,000,000 votes.

From late 2010 until Mar 2012 an additional 7,500,000 folks had gotten themselves on the food stamps rolls, paid for by the government. "Free Stuff"

Several million folks are the recipients of cell phones, under the guise of having access to "911" services, paid for with that little $2.00 tax on the bottom of the cell phone bills that we all pay for.

It didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the "free stuff" recipients could work 4 hours every 4 years (waiting in line to vote) to insure continuity.

Poor Governor Romney never had a chance.

Yup thats what did it and you keep with that thinking and it will happen again and again. Keep believing the **** being fed to you by the faction of your party that is the problem. :zz:

I don't think I've EVER seen or heard those words together:zz:

what an absurd post.
yes, there are more people on food stamps, unemployment, etc. i guess you think that the entire economic disaster was in fact a democratically engineered plan to get more people out of work, and onto the oh-so generous 'free stuff' plan so as to provide more votes. because goodness knows, having two years of unemployment bennies is far more lucrative than money made from a job.
you might want to go read what democraphics voted for whom in the election. but then, i guess it's a lot easier to say free stuff, then to understand the republican party is committing long, slow, painful suicide. that their presidential candidate sucked, their platform sucks, their ideas suck, their comments on women, reproductive rights, spending, defense growth, etc, all sucked.
obama didn't start the cell phone plan. nor is he the president who signed into law food stamps or unemployment benefits.

It's what he Roman's referred to as "Bread and Circus". By making sure we had food in our bellies and entertainment on our tv sets, we have been lulled into complacency, so they can work behind our backs, in secret, to force us into debt slavery.

Fat and happy people, as a general rule, do not riot and rebel against their captors.

Even those of us who had it well in the 90's and early 00's, while not living nearly as well as we had been, are by and large not struggling to feed our families now. The poor, that are most impacted, are receiving aid in an increased capacity - there's no surprise there.

The people bitching the loudest about the increase in food stamps recipients by and large are the lower middle class, which fears they will be next.

And they have every reason.

Please direct you attention toward the Tampa woman who got threatening letters from the chick who was fuc1<ing the Head of the CIA so that behind your back we can raid SSI and increase your taxes before the end of the year to avoid the "Fiscal Cliff".

So much more pleasant to watch the govt's version of TMZ rather than address the problem (which neither Romney nor Obama ever came close to doing in their respective campaigns - for good reason - they didn't have to. the sheep follow)

that's what napolean made sure of, that no matter how bad things were while he tried to take over the world, the bread remained cheap to all the huddled masses. that way they didn't yelp as much while he killed frenchmen by the score in misguided and badly waged wars.
now doesn't that sound familiar?

well, now we have the real reason why romney lost. not because of taxes, spending, the 47%. grover norquist gives an oh so eloquent explanation:


"The president was committed; elected on the basis that he was not Romney and Romney was a poopy head "



http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slate...oppy_head.html


grover norquist has so much pull that most republicans have signed his pledge. and he used the words 'poopy head'?!?!

now we know why, not only romney lost, but why the repubs are in such bad shape. it's because this guy is one of their leaders.

anyone that signs a pledge dictating how they will act regardless of circumstances has abdicated their responsibility as a legislator and has no business in any legislative body.

that said, norquist has long been a voice of reason in the conservative movement on immigration reform. i'm torn between his long term efforts to "stangle government in it's cradle" and his being one of the few thoughtful conservative voices on immigration BEFORE the election.

i see that sean hannity's position suddenly "evolved" after 11-6 and he now supports comprehensive immigration reform that would include a path to citizenship. he joins other's who now at least talk as if they've figured out that driving 70% of hispanic voters into the democratic column isn't a sustainable path for republican's.

Oh my, off the reservation...soon as Roger Ailes hears that Hannity will join Glenn Beck wherever he is..:eek:

Obama won 8 of the 10 wealthiest counties in the country (for 1% of the overall vote).

Obama's win was a landslide, Romney got less than 48% of the vote. Romney got less votes than Kerry did losing to Bush in 2004.

Blacks are only about 11-15% of voters. Yes, Obama won blacks. And every other demographic except old white men. But Obama won plenty of white men.

Obama won among the largest demographic group of all, who came out in record numbers: women. Even Republican women.

The Republican party, via Romney, told 47% of the country that they wouldn't take responsibility for their lives and are moochers - and to stand by that statement, to blame that for his electoral loss - well, keep doing that and continue Republican irrelevancy forever.

Romney didn't "lose" - Obama won. By superior ground game, policies, message, and accomplishment.

Did you realize that Grover Norquist created his "no taxes" pledge when he was 12 years old?

That's right - we have a whole bunch of politicians who declare fealty to an unelected 12-year-old's tax plan.

"Obama won 8 of the 10 wealthiest counties in the country"

and yet republicans will continue to fall on the sword to protect those same people (at least 50% of whom voted democratic) from paying a marginally higher income tax rate.

it's a head scratcher.

i didn't know that.

but it's hard to have even less respect for someone who opted out of thoughtful consideration as an option during their legislative career. i think i had already flatlined. you can't make it worse.

How about the fact that the evil 47% Romney talks about, the "takers and moochers" that some on the right demonize, are in reality primarily white poor in overwhelmingly white, Southern states?

Yes, that's right: the greatest "takers" of government "welfare", of food stamps, welfare, cell phones and free government programs are white southerners in poor red states like Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, etc.

But that didn't stop the dog whistles.

Agreed. I can't believe they say that shi.at publicly and hope to get re-elected.

Well, at least many of them were sent home this cycle.

On statistic brain, i read some of the following.

% us population on welfare....4.1. 4.3 million people


Recipients who are white...38.8%
". Who are black.....39.8%

Running neck and neck on that.

15.7% hispanic, but to hear some on here, youd think it was a LOT higher

I cannot believe how many signed that pledge...and its completely counter to what much of the electorate thinks on the subject.
Its very hard to exhibit a desire to compromise when you have a majority of a group signing something like that. Limits what can be put on the table...

I think statisticbrain misrepresents the stats. The 38.8 percent and 39.8 percent numbers are figures for poor single mothers receiving AFDC (Aid to Families with Dependent Children) assistance. Welfare in general is 61 percent white, 33 percent black.

Social Security, including disability payments, interestingly, is 88.7 white and 9.6 percent black.

The article has a lot more specifics. I don't know this blog at all, but the article seems pretty legit.

http://theobamacrat.com/2012/01/05/w...more-benefits/

Had never heard of staticbrain actually. So that link was a first.
Thanks for letting me know it wasnt telling the whole story.
As for the above, i wonder why ss is so skewed.

Oh, no worries. I often find I have to check things I find against another site and half the time I find they contradict each other. So much information out there!

The article I linked to goes into why SS is so skewed. It's an interesting read. I mean, the writer clearly has an agenda, but the stats seem to stand up to scrutiny, so I can read that and tune out the polemics, as it were. ;)

^^^^ An obvious Hitchens wannabe.

read the article, interesting points made. and i didn't know that the life expectancy differed due to race.
the only part of ss i ever get steamed about are when i know people who are getting disability, and shouldn't be. i have a brother and sister who both 'work the system'.
my sisters disability? stress.
my brother hurt his back on the job. they offered him a desk job, he said he can't sit for very long. too painful. but he sure can sit and play world of warcraft day and night. loser.

Romney didn't "lose" - Obama won. By superior ground game, policies, message, and accomplishment.

Add a perfectly timed hurricane that presented the ideal opportunity for the "Big O" to appear effective and concerned about those harmed and suffering.....with a dose of paranoia to "ration the fuel" of a conspiracy about election fraud in swing states due to software designed and owned by a Romney company to recreate the hanging chad phenomena by ignoring votes of certain candidates, so that the undecided, who are really the champion procrastinators of the voting world with the effect of a popular fat guy Gov. from Jersey focusing the media on what the Big "O" got right rather than a 4 star General CIA director trying to outkick his coverage and we have enough of a bump and grind for "four more years"........timing my friends is still everything in life!!

FTFY

Thank You.....my bad!

Be cause of population percentages break down by race. Especially when you think of when the people who are now old enough to collect SS were born.

Seems about right.

If I am not mistaken, 5 or 6 of these counties are in Md and/or Va adjacent to Washington DC, inhabited by government workers. More "Free Stuff."

two. fairfax and louden county are in nova. you'll have to come up with another excuse for the other six.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama-...154837437.html

and since the "free stuff" meme worked out so well, you should definetly keep pounding away at that winner.

government workers= free stuff?
wow, i'll let my son, a sailor, know that he's not actually earning any of his benefits or pay.

by the by, most govt workers can't afford posh digs.

"free stuff" ... dang, my dogs are sitting up, screaming, at the Lee Atwater dog whistle.

Look at the polling, folks. The "real" polling that was accurate. Romney never had a chance. He got a slight bump after the first debate, that faded quickly. Conservatives were taken in by listening to their "guts" and bad polling data. I felt sorry for them, when I realized they really, really did expect a Romney win. They were mislead by bad data and guys like Dick Morris. Obama had this won 2 months ago, and the hurricane didn't do anything.